HOW TENNESSEE BEATS IT

Georgia hit threes. Tennessee didn’t. Life moves on!

Sometimes analysis is easy and fun; sometimes it is egregious and useless. The Georgia game was the latter of those. Georgia’s two best players, who were 30-31% three-point shooters on the season, shot 8-of-13 from three.

Had they shot a more normal rate, Tennessee loses, 68-63 or thereabouts. It wasn’t the entire difference, duh, but in a game where Georgia was favored by 2.5 points, it explains most of it. That and the fact Tennessee, yet again, missed a metric ton of open threes.

At least Vandy has the decency to make their blowout losses kind of exciting.

As such, no further comments will be allowed on the latest disastrous blowout loss for a team that really shouldn’t be this bad. Yes, Bart Torvik’s site correctly pinpointed Tennessee as being NIT-level this year, but if you’re paying the head man $5M to figure it out, you should probably not touch that level too often.

GO TO THE RIM

Here’s a simple equation for you: Vanderbilt’s rim defense is pretty bad. Tennessee, in turn, should go to the rim as often as they possibly can.

Against UNC Asheville and Jacksonville State – one of which possesses a defense better than Vandy’s – Tennessee posted their most two-point makes of the season, 27 and 24. Want to know how? Because they posted a combined 51 rim attempts in those two games.

Wow, it’s almost as if very basic data and statistics could’ve pointed this out for, I don’t know, the last 15 years. It is long overdue for Tennessee to start going to the rim more and forcing their way into the paint, especially when they cannot hit a three to save their lives or anyone else’s.

I get that the Jalen Johnson and Santiago Vescovi types are not built to go to the rim. But if Jordan Bowden (17.3% of all attempts at the rim) isn’t going to try, he should start the game on the sidelines until further notice. (Josiah-Jordan James is on notice here, too.)

Two guys are allowed to take threes going forward

Fun, depressing fact: Tennessee possesses two shooters on the entire roster, including guys that have played about two minutes on the season, that are at 1 PPP or better when taking threes. It’s Santiago Vescovi (11-of-22, 50%) and Josiah-Jordan James (20-of-51, 39.2%).

I’m at least somewhat lenient on Jalen Johnson (10-of-32, 31.2%) and Yves Pons (16-of-53, 30.2%) because with a couple of makes, they’re right at our makeshift Mendoza Line. Here are some guys who are not at it: Jordan Bowden (27-of-97, 27.8%), Davonte Gaines (3-of-14, 21.4%), Drew Pember (3-of-11, 27.3%), Olivier Nkamhoua (1-of-4, 25%). Pember’s at least hit two threes in his last two games, and Nkamhoua may simply not be ready for outside shooting. Any Bowden or Gaines three feels like a defeat.

Defensively, it’s not a tough scout

Well, now that Nesmith won’t be playing, anyway. In Vandy’s two non-Nesmith games, it’s actually been three-point specialist Maxwell Evans who’s led the team in shot attempts with 19.

Saben Lee, though, ranks second at 16. It is of utmost importance to stop his drives to the rim at all costs.

Vandy’s going to attempt a ton of threes in this game; I’ll set the over/under at 25. Evans is the only player that’s hitting more than 35% of his attempts; all others, you can be at least somewhat okay with them taking a three. Any Wright/Moyer three is a massive win, for example. Of course, you need to guard these threes in the first place. Any unguarded three…well, it adds to the online frustration.

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