Show Me My Opponent: Alabama (#2)

Written Tuesday evening:

SEC Tournament season, baby! Are you feeling the fire? Are you feeling the excitement? Do you know that It Just Means More™? With zero teams in KenPom’s top 25 and about four teams you can confidently say are making the NCAA Tournament, I can’t imagine not being full-throated ecstatic over the re-arrival of this thing. SEC basketball is here! 4.5 whole days of it! Man, I’m almost tearing up at the thought of the classics to come. Get ready, y’all.

In all seriousness, I’ve talked about this for a while, but this is the worst SEC in at least seven years and possibly further back. The best team in the pack is pretty clearly Kentucky, a team almost perfectly suited for the 1994 NCAA Tournament, and the teams behind it are all varying shades of gray. 2 seed Auburn spent the first three months of the season exhausting its entire supply of luck before crash-landing over the final three weeks. (Still beat Tennessee twice, of course.) 3 seed LSU had the best offense in conference play and paired it with the 12th-best defense. Mississippi State, South Carolina, Florida, Texas A&M…other than Florida, who amazingly will be in the Field of 68, will you remember anything these teams did in a week?

Anyway, that leads us to our 8 and 9 seeds: Tennessee and Alabama. They’ve already played once, with Tennessee completing a wild and objectively very funny double-digit road comeback to beat the Tide. This Tennessee team is young and hyper-flawed, and yet they’re capable of that. Alabama, likewise, is a very young team that can be as fun as anyone in America some nights, yet simply opted to not participate in the NCAA Tournament after it arrived on the horizon as a serious possibility in late January.

One season is going to end earlier than the fanbase involved would have hoped or really imagined two months back. The other season will be extended until at least Friday, where the most likely outcome is a defeat at the hands of a team that hasn’t cracked the KenPom top 20 in nearly two months. Next year will be quite a bit better for both schools.

Written Thursday morning:

Are we sure we should be playing this game?

NEXT PAGE: Wash your hands

Show Me My Opponent: Auburn (#2)

Here we are: after four-plus months of hot basketball action, we have finally arrived at the very end. Here is how I thought it would go:

And here is how all of those ended up going:

  • Record prediction: most likely 18-13, 10-8 SEC play
  • Team MVP: All-SEC John Fulkerson
  • NCAAT? check back next Sunday
  • Record vs. Florida/Kentucky: 2-1!
  • Pick 2 Click: I think we have to go Fulk here, yeah? Maybe Yves Pons?
  • Most Important Non-SEC Game: It actually ended up being the home Memphis game, but not for the reasons anyone expected. This is now a Quadrant 2 loss because Memphis has politely decided to suck in the 2020 half of 2019-20. The most important win is…probably still Washington? Somehow? Either that or VCU.

So those projections ended up going about 2.5 for 6, I’ll say. We’ll monitor the ones still in play. It’s quite amazing that we’re here even wanting to look at preseason projections, honestly. Seven days ago, when I posted the preview of the Florida game, I included the Press F to Pay Respects meme as the featured image on the article. (I legitimately cannot thank the boomer that asked me “what exactly am I looking at? Do I have to press F to access the article?” You brought so much joy to my Friday.) I, along with most others, figured the season was basically over. This team might beat Florida, it might beat a rapidly declining star in Auburn, but it wasn’t going to win at Rupp.

Until it did.

Now, here we are, entertain us, these Tennessee Volunteers can get themselves back onto the NCAA bubble – not even the NIT one, y’all – with a win over an Auburn team that was 22-2 three weeks ago. What a world.

NEXT PAGE: I can’t link it because my grandparents read these but I very nearly made the @dril “Holy Mackerel” tweet the featured image.

Show Me My Opponent: Kentucky (#2)

Go ahead and prepare yourself for what will be an onslaught of pieces over the next two weeks, assuming Kentucky wins the SEC Tournament. Kentucky has turned the corner. Kentucky is once again a national championship contender. Kentucky has the most John Calipari team to date. In this new article from Kyle Tucker of the Athletic, we explore why this Kentucky team is more prepared for March than you think. Every single one of these pieces will exist, and every single one of them will ignore a key fact: barring a serious overachiever run from Kentucky, this will be Calipari’s second-lowest-ranked KenPom team, aside from the aborted Nerlens Noel year.

But Will, you may clamor, isn’t this because KenPom factors in non-conference results too heavily? I mean, that’s obviously possible. It’s happened with other teams in the past. But let’s check out Bart Torvik’s site, which can separate results by non-conference and conference play in a system very similar to Ken’s.

Kentucky in non-conference play: +15.8 Adj. EM; 36th
Kentucky in SEC play: +18.6 Adj. EM; 23rd

Wow, look at that title contender! If you’re curious, the last five Kentucky teams all ranked higher in SEC play than this one has. It’s obviously pretty nice that Kentucky is 14-2 in SEC play, and that’s worth talking about. However: have you considered the fact that this is the least-good SEC since 2012-13 when it produced three NCAA Tournament teams? The SEC ranks dead last among Big Six conferences in Ken’s ratings, with Kentucky being the only team in the top 30. Heck, Florida – the team Tennessee took a near-20 point lead on – is the second-best team in these ratings. There’s as many teams ranked 140th or worse as there are teams in the top 35.

Here’s what I’m trying to get at: before giving in once again to the Kentucky machine, consider the context. This is a terrible SEC in a down year for college basketball as a whole. Even if you exclude the Evansville loss entirely, Kentucky’s played at the level of the 26th-best team since, per Bart Torvik. (Want to go from post-Ohio State loss onward? 19th.) All of the college basketball tastemakers will be crowning this team as being an “under the radar title contender.” Given a perfect draw, even I might squeeze them in further than I’d expect. All I’m asking you to do is not get swallowed up in the hype yet again, lest your bracket get busted in the Sweet Sixteen.

They’ll still beat Tennessee, I’m afraid.

NEXT PAGE: Kentucky: a basketball team

All of Tennessee’s remaining SEC conference standings scenarios, from best to worst

It is a beautiful Sunday afternoon in Knoxville, Tennessee. It may well be our prettiest day of the year thus far. As you would expect, I have taken full advantage of this day to write a very silly blog about everywhere Tennessee could finish in the SEC standings. As of this writing, per my understanding of the SEC rulebook, Tennessee basketball can finish anywhere from fifth to eleventh by the time the regular season wraps itself up in six days. I’ve broken down every possible scenario as I understand it, from the silliest (a six-way tie for fourth) to the easiest. Here’s all of ’em.

WIN OUT, FINISH 18-13 (10-8)

This one’s obviously a stretch. Tennessee has won once at Rupp Arena in the last 20 years, and it took some heroic efforts to make it happen. Still, this Kentucky team hasn’t cracked KenPom’s Top 25 in a month, and anything technically is possible. There’s about a 12% chance Tennessee wins out, per KenPom.

As it stands, as many as six teams can technically finish 10-8. Mississippi State (10-6) plays South Carolina (9-7) this week, but that’s the only game involving multiple teams of the six pack, which also includes Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Alabama. All of the scenarios are listed below, from most to least stupid.

  • All of Mississippi State, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Alabama finish 10-8. First off, it would be proof that we are indeed living in a simulation. Secondly, here’s how this would shake out. The SEC’s first tiebreaker is opponent records within a group to be tie-broken. Assuming everything we need happens, here’s how that looks:
    • Florida 3-2, Miss State 4-3, South Carolina 4-4, Tennessee 3-3, Texas A&M 3-3, Alabama 2-4.
  • SOOOOOOOOO here’s how that would look. Florida, by virtue of having the highest winning percentage, would be #4. Mississippi State is next at #5. All of South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas A&M have the same winning percentage; Alabama brings up the rear at #9. It then proceeds to how you did against the #1 seed on down. Considering both South Carolina and Tennessee would have wins over Kentucky, this would lock Texas A&M down at #8. Thenconsidering South Carolina only had to play Kentucky once instead of twice, thereby owning a 1-0 record vs. Tennessee’s 1-1, this would lock in South Carolina as the #6 and Tennessee as the #7. Take a deep breath. This would mean Tennessee plays the #10 seed, which could be any of four different teams, on Thursday at 7 PM ET.

That was pretty stupid. What if we took some ties that are also very stupid and went through them, one-by-one?

  • A five-team tie for fourth involving Mississippi State, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. Again, so dumb it makes me angry. But in this scenario, the group standings would be Florida 2-2, Miss State 3-2, South Carolina 4-3, Tennessee 2-3, Texas A&M 2-3. Mississippi State would be #4, South Carolina #5, Florida #6, Texas A&M #7, Tennessee #8.
  • A five-team tie for fourth, but with Alabama instead of Texas A&M. Florida 2-2, Miss State 4-2, South Carolina 2-4, Tennessee 3-2, Alabama 2-3. Mississippi State would be #4, Tennessee #5, Florida #6, Alabama #7, South Carolina #8. Tennessee would play the winner of the 12/13 game (Wednesday, 7 PM ET) on Thursday at about 3:30 PM ET.
  • A five-team tie for fifth, with everybody but Mississippi State. I am really regretting doing this. Florida 3-1, South Carolina 4-2, Tennessee 3-2, Texas A&M 2-3, Alabama 1-3. Florida would be #4, South Carolina #5, Tennessee #6, Texas A&M #7, Alabama #8. Tennessee would play the winner of the 11/14 game (Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET) on Thursday at about 9:30 PM ET.
  • A four-team tie for fourth, involving Florida, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and…sure, South Carolina. Florida 1-2, Miss State 3-1, Tennessee 2-2, South Carolina 3-2. Mississippi State #4, South Carolina #5, Tennessee #6, Florida #7. Tennessee would play the winner of the 11/14 game (Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET) on Thursday at about 9:30 PM ET.
  • A four-team tie for fifth, involving Florida, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Alabama. This scenario would require South Carolina to win both and finish fourth, as we’ve already resolved the “what if South Carolina beats Miss State but loses their other game” question above. Florida 1-2, Miss State 3-1, Tennessee 2-1, Alabama 1-3. Mississippi State #5, Tennessee #6, Florida #7, Alabama #8. Tennessee would play the winner of the 11/14 game (Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET) on Thursday at about 9:30 PM ET.
  • A four-team tie for fifth, involving Florida, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. Last one of the big ones we’ll do. Florida 1-2, Miss State 2-1, Tennessee 1-2, Texas A&M 2-1. Texas A&M beat Mississippi State, so they would be the #5 and Mississippi State the #6. Tennessee beat Florida, so they would be the #7 and Florida the #8. This would mean Tennessee plays the #10 seed, which could be any of four different teams, on Thursday at 7 PM ET.

Here’s how a wide variety of three-way ties at 10-8 would resolve themselves.

  • Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State: Tennessee 1-1, Florida 0-2, Mississippi State 2-0. MSU > Tennessee > Florida.
  • Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina: Tennessee 2-1, Florida 1-1, South Carolina 1-2. Tennessee > Florida > South Carolina.
  • Tennessee, Florida, Alabama: Tennessee 2-0, Florida 1-1, Alabama 0-2. Tennessee > Florida > Alabama.
  • Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M: Tennessee 1-1, Florida 1-1, Texas A&M 1-1. This then goes to record against 1 seed: Tennessee 1-1, Florida 0-2, Texas A&M 0-1. Tennessee > the other two.
  • Tennessee, Mississippi State, South Carolina: Tennessee 1-2, Miss State 2-1, South Carolina 2-2. MSU > South Carolina > Tennessee.
  • Tennessee, Mississippi State, Alabama: Tennessee 1-1, Miss State 2-1, Alabama 1-2. MSU > Tennessee > Alabama.
  • Tennessee, Mississippi State, Texas A&M: Tennessee 0-2, Miss State 1-1, Texas A&M 2-0. A&M > MSU > Tennessee.
  • Tennessee, Alabama, Texas A&M: Tennessee 1-1, Alabama 0-2, Texas A&M 2-0. A&M > Tennessee > Alabama.

If it gets down to two-way ties, those are all fairly simple.

  • Tennessee vs. Florida: Tennessee defeated Florida and owns the tiebreaker.
  • Tennessee vs. South Carolina: Tennessee split the season series with South Carolina, but South Carolina would own a 1-0 record against #1 seed Kentucky to Tennessee’s 1-1. They own the tiebreaker.
  • Tennessee vs. Mississippi State: Tennessee lost to Mississippi State and would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker.
  • Tennessee vs. Alabama: Tennessee defeated Alabama and owns the tiebreaker.
  • Tennessee vs. Texas A&M: Tennessee lost to Texas A&M and would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker.

A no-tie scenario involving six different teams is…not likely. But obviously, you’ll know where Tennessee lies.

GO 1-1, FINISH 17-14 (9-9)

This is currently the most likely of the three outcomes for Tennessee. The Vols will be favored to lose at Kentucky, yet favored to defeat Auburn at home.

Four teams can still finish 9-9 in this scenario. South Carolina would have to lose out to finish 9-9; all of Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas A&M would have to finish 1-1. The odds of all of these things happening hover around 2%, which is…not 0%!

  • In the event of a four-team tie: South Carolina’s 3-2 record against the group would be best, placing them #6. Texas A&M is next at 2-2, placing them #7. Tennessee went 2-3 among these three opponents, making them #8. Alabama went 1-2, which is a lower winning percentage than Tennessee’s 2-3, making them #9. Tennessee would play Alabama in the 8/9 game on Thursday at 1 PM ET.

Alternately, there is the more likely scenario that all three teams go 1-1 while South Carolina goes 1-1 or 2-0 to lock up the #6 spot. This is currently hovering around 17%, which sounds low, but is a fairly high probability for anything involving three teams and six separate outcomes.

  • In the event of a three-team tie: Texas A&M went 2-0 against this group, placing them #7. Tennessee went 1-1, beating Alabama but losing to Texas A&M; this makes them #8 again. Same deal for Alabama, who goes #9. Tennessee would play Alabama in the 8/9 game on Thursday at 1 PM ET.

Now, let’s get into some simpler, yet less likely scenarios. As it stands, Texas A&M will be heavy underdogs to Auburn this week while being slight underdogs to Arkansas. For Alabama, they are large favorites over Vanderbilt and small favorites over Missouri. Tennessee, currently, is a moderate underdog at Kentucky and a small favorite over Alabama. For the purposes of our, uh, “simulation,” we will assume that Tennessee goes 1-1 in this. These are all hypothetical two-way ties.

  • Alabama goes 2-0, Tennessee 1-1, Texas A&M 1-1. Because of Texas A&M’s win over Tennessee, they get the #8 seed as Tennessee gets #9. Same deal as our other sims, but Tennessee would instead play Texas A&M in the 8/9 game.
  • Alabama goes 1-1, Tennessee 1-1, Texas A&M 0-2. Due to Tennessee’s win over Alabama, they would finish #7 in the conference as Alabama finishes #8 and Texas A&M #9. Currently, four different teams can finish #10 – Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia, and Ole Miss. Tennessee would draw the…winner? of this quadrant in the 7/10 game on Thursday at 7 PM ET.
  • Texas A&M goes 1-1 or better, Tennessee 1-1, Alabama 0-2. Texas A&M owns the tiebreaker over Tennessee, so they would finish #7. Tennessee gets #8 and draws Alabama in the 8/9 game on Thursday at 1 PM ET.

Now, for all of the no-tie scenarios.

  • Alabama goes 2-0, Tennessee 1-1, Texas A&M 0-2. Tennessee is the #8 seed and plays Texas A&M at 1 PM ET on Thursday.
  • Texas A&M goes 2-0, Tennessee 1-1, Alabama 0-2. Tennessee is the #8 seed and plays Alabama at 1 PM ET on Thursday.
  • Both Alabama AND Texas A&M go 2-0, Tennessee 1-1. Tennessee is the #9 seed. By virtue of Texas A&M’s win over Alabama, Tennessee would play Alabama at 1 PM ET on Thursday.
  • Both Alabama AND Texas A&M go 0-2, Tennessee 1-1. Tennessee is the #7 seed. They would play the 10 seed, likely either Arkansas or Missouri, at 7 PM ET on Thursday.

LOSE OUT, FINISH 16-15 (8-10)

Oh God.

As many as five teams can technically finish 8-10: Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri. This would determine slots 7-11 in the SEC standings, if it did happen. The odds of all five teams doing this are incredibly low, but here’s how that tie would break out.

  • A five-way tie between these five teams goes like this: Alabama 1-4, Tennessee 3-2, Texas A&M 4-2, Arkansas 5-2, Missouri 2-5. The teams would slot like so: Arkansas #7, A&M #8, Tennessee #9, Missouri #10, Alabama #11. Tennessee would play Texas A&M in the 8/9 game on Thursday at 1 PM ET.

Let’s just get the four-way ties over with.

  • Any four-way tie between Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Arkansas: Alabama 0-3, Tennessee 2-2, Texas A&M 2-2, Arkansas 4-1. Arkansas > Texas A&M > Tennessee > Alabama.
  • Any four-way tie between Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Missouri: Admittedly really hard to envision this happening? Alabama 1-3, Tennessee 2-1, Texas A&M 3-1, Missouri 1-4. Texas A&M > Tennessee > Alabama > Missouri.
  • Any four-way tie between Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri: Alabama 1-3, Tennessee 3-1, Arkansas 3-2, Missouri 2-3. Tennessee > Arkansas > Missouri > Alabama.

I think that’s it? Here’s all the possible three-way ties involving Tennessee.

  • We already resolved Tennessee, Texas A&M, Alabama above. Texas A&M > Tennessee > Alabama.
  • Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas: Tennessee 2-1, Alabama 0-2, Arkansas 1-2. Tennessee > Arkansas > Alabama.
  • Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri: Tennessee 2-0, Alabama 1-2, Missouri 1-2. Tennessee > Alabama > Missouri, I think.
  • Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri: Tennessee 2-1, Arkansas 2-2, Missouri 1-2. Tennessee > Arkansas > Missouri.
  • Tennessee, Texas A&M, Arkansas: Tennessee 1-2, Texas A&M 2-1, Arkansas 2-1. Texas A&M/Arkansas > Tennessee.
  • Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri: Tennessee 1-1, Texas A&M 3-0, Missouri 0-3. Texas A&M > Tennessee > Missouri.

Two-way ties:

  • Tennessee vs. Alabama: Tennessee defeated Alabama and owns the tiebreaker.
  • Tennessee vs. Texas A&M: Tennessee lost to Texas A&M and would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker.
  • Tennessee vs. Arkansas: Tennessee and Arkansas split the season series. Both would have no wins against Auburn; Arkansas’s theoretical win over LSU would give them the tiebreaker over Tennessee.
  • Tennessee vs. Missouri: Tennessee defeated Missouri and owns the tiebreaker.

If I’ve messed something up, please email statsbywill@gmail.com. Hopefully, it does not get as complicated as some of these scenarios may suggest.

Show Me My Opponent: Florida

From last week:

There are no KenPom Top 25 teams in The Stretch. That’s excellent. What’s not excellent is that Tennessee has only racked up seven conference wins to this point in a season where they really needed eight or more to feel good about this. Two games in particular will sit poorly with the players and staff if they can’t turn it around in these five games: the 63-58 home loss to a terrible Texas A&M squad and last weekend’s two-point road loss to South Carolina. The second of those is far less offensive to me than dropping a home decision to a team that has lost to Harvard, Temple, and Fairfield.

It’s all in the past now. Tennessee can rectify those games by winning one more game than they’re expected to. Both KenPom and Torvik anticipate Tennessee finishing the season 2-3 in these five games. That would add at least one Quadrant 1 win, which brings Tennessee to three on the season…or the same number as 21-6 Saint Mary’s, which is not good when you’ll end up playing six more Q1 opponents than they will. If Tennessee can get to four, that gets them onto the bubble. It’s that simple. Can Tennessee actually Do It? We’ll see.

Reader, they did not Do It. They were about 10 minutes away from Doing It, blew the game, and then got demolished by a team with more to play for on Wednesday. If all you care about is the NCAA Tournament, the season is over and you can begin planning your spring break travels without factoring in a potential Tennessee Thursday/Friday game. (Personally, I suggest that this is a great time to jump on the ETSU bandwagon if you haven’t yet.) This is an NIT team, assuming they can fart out 1-2 more wins this year, and that’s pretty much it.

If Tennessee somehow goes 2-1 over these final three, that would be nice. But no one trusts this team to do so, and no one should, really. Thinking about next year does make it better, though.

NEXT PAGE: A discussion on apple orchards

Show Me My Opponent: Arkansas (#2)

Man, whatever. It happened. Who cares.

This Tennessee team was never going to be as good as the top 20 KenPom ranking it received in preseason. It was never going to be on the level some thought it may be after the blowout win over Washington. There was no point in time in which I thought Tennessee would be any better than, like, a 7-9 seed. A lot of this is based on the roster Rick Barnes constructed, but whatever.

I’m sort of done talking about this season, to be honest. It is what it is, and next season is going to be much, much better. Rick Barnes is not Mike White, and I really have confidence that he is not going to blow a top 10 roster in the same fashion. Watching Florida has been a serious chore this year, though that’s for Saturday’s preview to discuss. Anyway, we are here, here is Arkansas.

For two months, this Arkansas team was the story of the SEC. A 12-1 start with wins over Georgia Tech and Indiana wasn’t perfect, obviously, but this looked like a group destined for an 8/9 seed in March, which would have been serious improvement over the 2018-19 NIT squad. For year one of Eric Musselman’s tenure to end like that…well, everyone would’ve been thrilled. This squad isn’t deep at all, and there’s tons of flaws, but you can’t ever fault their effort.

Unfortunately, #grit doesn’t always win out. In fact, #grit has taken lots of Ls lately. Arkansas is 5-9 since that 12-1 start, with the best win being a road squeaker over Alabama. They’ve fallen out of the NCAA Tournament field entirely, now being listed on Bracket Matrix as one of the First Four Out. (Oh, to be in such a luxurious position! It must feel nice.) Nothing is trending right for Arkansas – welcome to the club! – and all the goodwill of November and December feels lost. Did I mention that Tennessee and Arkansas fans should be best friends at this point?

NEXT PAGE: Musselman’s approval rating is still very high, though