Hello out there. I hope you’re trying to enjoy the dog days of summer. Every day is exactly the same; an 88-to-93 degree high, a 69-to-73 degree low. Sometimes it rains. Sometimes it doesn’t. Much like basketball, something either goes down or it stays out. This is perhaps the peak time of boredom, something we rarely get anymore with our collective addiction to social media and online life. You can zone out for minutes, even hours and realize that nothing around you has changed all that much. In its own way, it is quite nice.
More than any other time this could possibly be written, mid-August in the middle of Sludge Weather seems like the ideal time to continue the Mid-Range Discourse.
AFTER THE JUMP: The Discourse begins anew
Continue reading “How much mid-range is too much mid-range?”
If you’re reading this site for the first time, I wrote about 7,000 words on Tennessee’s infatuation with mid-range jumpers last Tuesday and was quite pleased with how it came out. Please read that first before reading this.
I got a lot of great, informational feedback on my mid-range article last Tuesday, and I’d like to thank everyone who responded or shared the piece in whatever way they saw fit. I’ve found myself inwardly cringing every time I see any mid-range jumpshot as of late, which is not a good way to live. In the right hands, the mid-range jumper is a tool that can free up space all over the court for an offense in need of it. If you have multiple excellent mid-range shooters, you’re probably going to have a pretty solid offense on the whole.
The issue, as Tennessee fans have seen this season, is that Tennessee doesn’t really have any. This is not 2018-19, when Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone were knocking shots down. It’s been a parade of bad shot selection, frustrating misses, and what looks like a team-wide case of being locked in a mental pretzel. As a fan, it isn’t fun; as a writer trying to make the team sound interesting, it is very annoying.
Anyway, I got several good follow-up questions, and I thought it might be best to devote an article to answering them. No GIFs in this piece, just words; do prepare yourselves for that.
If you’d like to skip ahead to a question, click below. They’re across the next two pages.
- Can you clarify some of the data sources?
- Are there any other teams that take more or as many mid-range jumpers as Tennessee?
- Has *anyone* been great offensively over the last few years taking this many mid-range jumpers?
- Has Tennessee been better/worse efficiency-wise in games where they’ve taken a lot/very few mid-range jumpers?
- Can we see shooting splits over first 11 games versus the last 12?
- Is it just Tennessee’s stars that do this, or is it the entire team?
NEXT PAGE: Questions 1-3
Tennessee has a problem. Well, they have several problems, but you have to take them one at a time.
Tennessee’s offense is broken. It has been for most of conference play, minus a couple spare performances. Tennessee sits at an on-the-dot 1 PPP against SEC opponents, which ranks 11th out of 14 teams. They’ve posted an eFG% of 48.4%, which is 10th-best. They rank 10th in both 3PT% (32.5%) and 2PT% (48.2%). Things are not good. So why aren’t they good when they have the most talented, deep team of Rick Barnes’ tenure?
There are many different factors that go into the goodness or badness of an offense, and I’m not going to pretend to know all of them. But the first and foremost thing to me is a very obvious thing that stands out every time I check Simon Gerszberg’s top 20 teams on Shot Quality:
And something else that stands out when I sort by who gets the lowest amount of their shots directly at the rim or from deep:
It’s time for the mid-range debate in Knoxville again. The Worst Shot in Basketball, as deemed by nerds like me, has long been a staple of every Rick Barnes offense. When it works, as it did in 2018-19, you hear very few complaints about it. When it doesn’t, as it hasn’t in…well, every year but 2018-19, it becomes more and more of a criticism and less of a thing you’re willing to let a more traditional coach have.
For this specific article, I’ve broken down the mid-range debate into nine key questions. There’s three per page on the pages that follow. For this article, I reached out to several coaches I know, multiple analytics pals, and, yes, Jimmy Dykes. It’s very long, but I’ve tried to dive into each corner of the Tennessee Mid-Range Issue that I can possibly find. I hope it’s worth your time and mine.
The nine questions are linked below, or you can just click on page 2 after the bullet points end.
- Why does Tennessee take so many mid-range shots?
- Has Rick Barnes focused on three-level scoring for his full career? Has this worked for Tennessee (or Texas) before?
- Has Tennessee’s offense stopped working because of five-star freshman? John Fulkerson? Personnel shortcomings?
- Does Tennessee need more ball screens or modern sets?
- Should John Fulkerson (or Olivier Nkamhoua, or E.J. Anosike) have worked on becoming at least an okay three-point shooter?
- Does Tennessee hurt itself by putting bad combinations (double-big lineups, two or more non-shooters) on the floor?
- Can you still score if you have a big man that can’t shoot?
- Is the mid-range jumper a thing of the past for great offenses?
- Can you temporarily fix this with a lineup change?