Show Me My Opponent: Vanderbilt I

LINEUP NOTES

Vandy:

  • Now on their seventh different starting lineup of the season. For whatever reason, they’ve relegated their best player to sixth-man status again: Pippen, Evans, Wright, Disu, Obinna.
  • Nearly every member of the rotation shoots threes, and most shoot them frequently. It attempts to be a 5-out motion meant to maximize spacing. That said, Obinna is not an outside threat at all, and Tennessee should celebrate any minutes Wright (3-of-27) or Moyer (3-of-20) receive.
  • Here is the starting/game-ending lineup I would use if I was Jerry Stackhouse: Lee, Pippen, Evans, Disu, Obinna.

Tennessee:

  • The KenPom charting issue will be fixed by the time the Kansas game next Saturday rolls around.
  • Vescovi, Bowden, JJJ, Pons, Fulkerson.
  • Here’s the thing that sucks: I think Tennessee, stats-wise, probably has the right starting lineup. There’s nothing they can realistically change to make it better, aside from cutting down Bowden’s minutes to ~28 a game and giving more of his time to Gaines/Johnson. If you exclusively go by SEC play – again, just 160 minutes of data – the lineup should be Vescovi, Jalen Johnson, JJJ, Pons, Fulkerson. Bowden would lead the second unit, with Pember getting Nkamhoua’s minutes. (Plavsic and Gaines both get 10 minutes each, I guess.)

KEY MATCHUPS

Santiago Vescovi vs. Saben Lee. Lee will play 30+ minutes and likely be Vandy’s shot leader; Vescovi needs to be a lot better on defense than he has been. The good news is that Lee himself is a similarly mediocre defender. These two may go shot-for-shot; Vescovi badly needs to get to 15+, if not 20+, in this one.

Jordan Bowden/Jalen Johnson vs. Scotty Pippen Jr. Pippen takes a lot of bad shots that don’t go in; Bowden takes pretty good shots that also don’t go in. Whichever one misses fewer probably wins. The more I think about starting Jalen Johnson, the more I’m coming around on it.

PREDICTION

Tennessee 70, Vanderbilt 67.

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