HOW TENNESSEE BEATS IT

Tell me if you’re seeing a Turning Point here

It’s hard to know a true Turning Point when you see one. Typically, in sports or in life, said Turning Point isn’t really evident until months down the line. You could probably say Admiral Schofield’s three to beat Gonzaga was a positive turning point last season; you could also say Anthony Jordan’s phantom foul calls were a negative one. That said, Tuesday’s win over Alabama seems like a glaringly obvious Turning Point for the 2019-20 Tennessee basketball team as a whole.

Coming back from a 15-point first-half deficit is obviously nice. Doing it when you hit just 2 of your 18 threes and 45.5% of your twos is near miraculous.

Tennessee shot worse in this game than they did against both Wisconsin and Florida State and won. I preach about Shot Volume way too much, but this game really cemented just how important it is to own the boards, turnovers, or both in a game where you can’t hit shots.

Tennessee got the equivalent of 20.2 extra shots because they had 10 more offensive rebounds and seven fewer turnovers. It really can be that simple.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Tennessee may actually have an interior advantage?

Kentucky doesn’t offer the same combo of turnover issues + below-average defensive rebounding. (They’re above-average at both.) So, it falls to the traditional old way of winning basketball games: make your easiest shots.

Kentucky’s rim defense, as discussed in the Defense section, is lacking at an unusual rate this year. They’ve struggled big-time with basket cuts, which Tennessee’s particularly good at running. I’d imagine both Fulkerson and Pons get a lot of run off of these, as they should. As mentioned, they also have struggled mightily to contain offenses built around ball screens.

Tennessee’s upped their number of these this year, and I think there’s serious potential in letting Jordan Bowden run off of a screen to the rim. The more rim attempts, the better, especially because it generally leads to more fouls. Kentucky’s 2-4 in games where the opponent has a 40% FTA/FGA or higher; they are 15-1 in all other games.

Take advantage of the open looks from three

Kentucky’s perimeter defense posts gaudy numbers, but there’s reason to believe Tennessee can get their share of open shots against it. It’s a strange pair of main lineups for Kentucky: the three guards are all 6’3”, but the two forwards are between 6’9”-6’11”. There’s no middle ground to contain a player like Yves Pons, who really needs to get his shots up in this one.

I think Tennessee can and should run 4-out lineups for the majority of this game, leaving either Fulkerson or Plavsic at the 5. Actually, Drew Pember could be a key bench piece in this one, considering his ability to stretch the floor.

Rim defense needs to be special

Kentucky’s excellent at converting their attempts at the rim, as they pretty much always are. Every single regular makes at least 56.7% of their shots within four feet of the rim. I think there’s a clear way Tennessee can defend this: pack the paint and let Kentucky take as many non-paint shots as they’d like.

Could this get frustrating if, say, Nick Richards or Immanuel Quickley start hitting several 14-footers? Sure.

But it’s better and more reliably inconsistent than letting Richards or Ashton Hagans worm their way to easy layups and dunks. Plus, the fewer attempts at the rim Kentucky gets, the less likely they are to pound their way to the free throw line over and over.

They offer a deadly combo of getting there often (#5 in FTA/FGA) and hitting said attempts (#7 in FT%, 78.3%). Tennessee really cannot afford the same foul parade they kindly offered Mississippi State.

Every non-rim shot is a win

The good news is that Kentucky takes an absurd 40.9% of their shots as non-rim twos. EJ Montgomery, Richards, Quickley, and Keion Brooks all take at least 40% of their shots from this range; only Richards hits more than 40% of his. I say let Kentucky take as many of these as they’d like.

As mentioned, Immanuel Quickley and Nate Sestina are the only quality shooters on this roster. If they make threes, it is what it is; every other player, you are allowed to be annoyed by their success.

Genuine suggestion: you can’t install it in a week, obviously, but Barnes/assistants should pretty much exclusively run Pack Line against opponents like Kentucky. If they can’t reliably shoot over the top or get a ton of offensive rebounds, you’re gonna win, period.

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