LINEUP NOTES

Kentucky:

• Hagans, Quickley, Maxey, Montgomery, Richards has been the starting lineup for about three weeks now and they have no real reason to change that. Keion Brooks was starting, but he’s simply not very good yet.
• Kahlil Whitney left Kentucky recently, if you’ll recall, meaning that the rotation is now just eight-deep. Nate Sestina has been regularly getting at least 15 minutes a night, and Keion Brooks is generally good for 10+. Johnny Juzang…I don’t know. He had three DNPs at the start of SEC play, suddenly jumped to 15-18 minutes a night, then played 5 minutes against Mississippi State.
• As you’ll note above, the main 4-out lineup happens when Sestina is in the game. For ~20 minutes a night, it’s a three-shooter lineup.

Tennessee:

• Vescovi, Bowden, Pons, Fulkerson, Plavsic, unless Josiah-Jordan James returns, in which case it’s Vescovi, Bowden, JJJ, Pons, Fulkerson.
• Like I mentioned in the Tennessee preview section, I think the Vols should run as many 4-out lineups as they can in this one. Forcing a Kentucky big man out to 20+ feet is great for extra spacing and driving lanes, and it will allow a guy like Yves Pons to have a noticeable advantage. It’s why I’m thinking Jalen Johnson should get 25+ minutes unless he’s having a bad defensive outing.

KEY MATCHUPS

John Fulkerson vs. Nick Richards. As far as I’m concerned, this is where the game will be won or lost. Richards is so purely dominant at the rim that it’s actually more reasonable to foul him and let him shoot free throws (74.5% at FT line, 86.7% at rim). Fulkerson, full stop, is the best player on Tennessee’s roster. He was the reason Tennessee defeated Alabama in a game they really should’ve lost. If he finds a way to hold Richards to 12 or less and keeps him from getting to double-digit rebounds, they should hand him his All-SEC ribbon as he walks off the floor.

Jordan Bowden vs. Immanuel Quickley. Shooter vs. shooter, in theory. Of Kentucky’s main five, Quickley is probably the least-effective defender, meaning Bowden should be able to get open looks and drive to the rim if he wants. That said, Quickley is a really good shooter, and Bowden cannot get lost in space like he has at times throughout his career.

Santiago Vescovi vs. Ashton Hagans. This could also be Vescovi vs. Maxey, but I went with the more likely scenario. Vescovi still has a long road to haul defensively, and Hagans could end up making him look silly at times in this game. That said, Vescovi remains an effective shooter and a quality ball distributor. Tennessee needs him to work past Hagans and open up the offense.

Yves Pons? Maybe? vs. Tyrese Maxey. Maxey plays 1-3 with ease and could end up being guarded by 67% of the Tennessee roster. The short of the matter: the best Pons outings are the ones where he hits his open threes and dominates defensively. If he can force Maxey into a lot of negative long twos, Tennessee is in serious business.

PREDICTION

Tennessee 66, Kentucky 65. Could this look pretty stupid? Of course; everything I write comes with the possibility of being very, very wrong. But I genuinely don’t think this Kentucky team is at the level of any of the least few. With or without Josiah-Jordan James, this is a huge opportunity and an eminently winnable game. (Also, KenPom said Tennessee by 1, so I feel less silly.)