WHAT THEY BRING

An offense that’s in deep struggles

Well, this was going to be a more fun preview at one point. Through the first 15 games or thereabouts, Arkansas legitimately looked like the best team in the SEC in Eric Musselman’s first year. I loved what Musselman did for most of his tenure at Nevada and thought it was a good hire, but I never expected them to jump out of the gate quite like they did. It all looked pretty good for a while, even though the offense was lagging behind. However, given the talent Arkansas has, you’d figure that would pick itself up, no?

Well…no. Arkansas’s offense ranks a perfect #100 in KenPom, largely driven by a team-wide aversion to rebounding and kinda crappy three-point shooting. Of the four players on the team with 40+ three-point attempts, no one is hitting more than Isaiah Joe’s 34%, which is a worse hit rate than both Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James. After their 14-2 (3-1) start, the Razorbacks have sputtered through a 2-5 run driven by a combination of offensive struggles, defensive downturn, and poor luck in close games. It’s not ideal. Couple that with Joe’s recent knee surgery and you’ve got a Hogs team that’s legitimately on the brink of a very disappointing ending.

Mason Jones is the main dude

In the two games without Joe, Mason Jones has used 44% and 32% of Arkansas’ possessions and played 81 of a possible 85 minutes, so that’s how it’s likely going to go. Jones is a second round NBA Draft possibility, a volume shooter completely fearless of pulling up from anywhere.

More so than the rest of the team, Jones loves to push the pace in transition, whether it leads to a scoring opportunity for himself or for someone else.

He also gets an outsized amount of run in their ball-screen sets as the main handler, which has led to pullup attempts that are…uh, ill-advised.

I like him way more as a finisher at the rim/potentially good three-point shooter than any sort of reliable mid-range option.

Do you like non-rim twos? You will love Jimmy Whitt, Jr.

Jimmy Whitt, Jr. is a pretty undersized small forward (6’3”) that refrains entirely from shooting threes, but never turns the ball over and is a very heavy user of non-rim twos. Whitt does get to the rim somewhat often, especially as the recipient on paint cuts:

But I don’t know that Tennessee has faced a player recently that has adored a 13-foot jumper quite like Whitt. He hits about 43.2% of his non-rim two-point attempts, which is actually a very good rate.

Tennessee has to guard these a little harder than they’re used to guarding them; it’s like watching Jimmer pull up if Jimmer loved the free throw line.

The other guys

Here’s the deal: Arkansas doesn’t and can’t go deep at all. The Joe injury now means the team only has eight active players, and really, they only go six-deep for most of the game. As such, you need to know that Desi Sills loves a spot-up three, even if he misses it.

It’s worth knowing that Adrio Bailey, at 6’6”, is the starting 4 that pops out for a three occasionally but does most of his damage at the rim.

Reggie Chaney, at 6’8”, just recently took over starting at center. It’s working…okay, I guess? Almost exclusively a cuts/pick-and-roll guy.

Jalen Harris misses threes a lot off the bench.

Great defense that forces a lot of missed threes, if you believe in defenses forcing missed threes

This is a weird one. Over the first 16 games, Arkansas allowed opponents to top 1+ PPP just three times, and two of them were losses. Over the last seven games, all but one opponent has topped 1+ PPP, and they’ve gone 2-5. If you want a quick diagnosis of why the Arkansas defense was doing so spectacularly well for so long, you could generally dial it down to two things: lots of turnovers forced as part of a hectic, aggressive half-court defense, along with some insanely good three-point luck.

Let me break it down quickly. The turnovers are legit, and Arkansas has made life hell on a lot of opponents this season. Five opponents in non-conference play ended the game with a 30% or worse turnover rate, and SEC play has still brought some good-if-less-spectacular numbers: Texas A&M with 26.2%, Auburn with 24.1%, etc.

That said: opponents weren’t, and aren’t, going to shoot below 25% from three against them for an entire season. Not until January 18 against Kentucky did an opponent shoot better than 33% from three, and while Kentucky’s 35.7% is still the worst they’ve allowed, they feel very much due for a worse outcome soon enough. This is an excellent perimeter defense, but it’s not going to stay this elite forever.

Sir, we are picking up strong hints of butt from this interior defense

More important to Tennessee at this point is the serious struggles of the Arkansas interior defense. They rank 289th in blocked shots at the rim, which means it’ll come as no surprise that they rank 345th in FG% allowed there.

They’re way better at mid-range defense – more on that in a minute – but when your absolute tallest option at center is 6’8” and he hasn’t blocked more than three shots in a game all season, you’ve got a problem. Arkansas has gotten demolished on basket and flash cuts this season and hasn’t defended post-ups well at all.

Mid-range defense, however, is a lot better. That’s the other, better side of having a pretty small lineup: everyone can move pretty quickly and close out on your 15-foot jumper.

I don’t want to dwell on these for long, but their mid-range work has saved the two-point defense as a whole from being bottom of the barrel. Tennessee should work to avoid these shots.

Also, lots of rebounds and fouls

While we’re here, a couple more things: Arkansas allows a lot of offensive rebounds and their aggressive defense commits a lot of fouls. This is…not a good thing for a team lacking massively in useful depth. Four players fouled out against Missouri on Saturday, including Mason Jones, and it was basically the entire reason they lost.

All of their preferred options at center commit 4+ fouls per 40 minutes; Tennessee should go at them as often as possible. At 6’5”, Jones is probably the best rebounder on the team, which is not a good sign for a team about to play against Yves Pons and John Fulkerson.

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