HOW TENNESSEE BEATS IT

Quick note: I realized too late that I didn’t download the Arkansas game for GIF purposes, so I’m reusing some older pieces.

Well, they should do the things that they are good at

I am getting quite tired of writing the same things. It is not fun giving you 90% of the same preview every time out. You know the case by now: Tennessee should be going to the rim way, way more often than they are, because they are very efficient there.

They’re also actually fine on longer twos, so I don’t mind those as much as I realistically could.

They suck at shooting threes, they commit what feels like 93 turnovers every game, and it feels like there are about 3.5 offensive players that you can feel good about for more than a possession or two at a time.

Considering that you need five starters on the floor plus however many of your preference on the bench, it’s far from ideal.

Tennessee will need to get to the rim early and often. The ball needs to go to John Fulkerson, because he will be matched up against Kerry Blackshear.

Blackshear’s a good defender, but he commits a high number of fouls, and there’s not a member of the Tennessee roster better at drawing fouls than Fulkerson. Yves Pons is going to have a hard time getting open if Keyontae Johnson is guarding him, so I’m not getting my hopes up for many of his cuts to the basket. If Tennessee wins, it’s probably because either John Fulkerson had one of the best games of his career.

Jordan Bowden belatedly is Jordan Bowden

Alternately, it could be because Jordan Bowden is suddenly the Jordan Bowden most people were hoping to see around 3-4 months ago. Better late than never, obviously, but it’s kind of heartbreaking that some of the best games of his career are being wasted in SEC road losses.

I sincerely hope that as the lone senior on the roster, he has two historically great games at home these next two Saturdays to close his career in Knoxville. I cannot imagine how rough it must have been to go through December and January being the most public figure on the roster, and I think every Tennessee fan should recognize him as a good ambassador for the university.

Hold Florida below 50% on twos

Defensively, this is actually a somewhat atypical Florida scout. The last couple of Florida teams jacked it up from downtown early and often. Considering last year’s team couldn’t hit threes consistently at all, I am not surprised Mike White has moved his offense towards the basket. It’s helped them be a little more selective in what they get from deep, and having Kerry Blackshear on your roster is always going to help your 2PT%.

Tennessee did a good enough job at the rim against Arkansas, but it has to be great, not good, to win this one.

Three-point coverage will win or lose the game

Guard the threes well in this one and you’ll win. Florida’s 13-3 when they shoot 33% or better from downtown; they are 5-7 otherwise.

It really is that simple! Tennessee guarded the perimeter way better in the second half against Arkansas and it did not matter.

Really, if you think about it, very few things truly matter in this world. I would say that reading a good book and having an apple on your back porch matters. I don’t know that this does.

Turnovers matter. Surprise!

Other stat of note: Florida is 8-1 when they have a TO% of 15% or less; they are 10-9 otherwise.

I think the message should be obvious; at this point, no Tennessee basketball-related message is going to be subtle.

NEXT PAGE: And then after South Carolina, it’s Georgia State at home, they’ve lost twice to Bryant, that should be a win. And then it’s #2 Vanderbilt here for a weekend series the same weekend as the NCAA Tournament’s first two rounds, and whoopsie, no one cares about the NCAA Tournament anymore because it’s the 20-1 Vols playing at home in the biggest series for Tennessee baseball in 15 years