PREDICTIONS

In one sense, it feels quite futile to try and predict anything that will happen in COVIDball 2020-21. There will be an alarming amount of postponed or outright cancelled games, and several programs (notably the entire Ivy League) have simply chosen not to play, period. It’s hard to blame anyone who goes down that road, because playing college basketball at the highest level is expensive, and for some, the expenses aren’t worth it. Anyway, that is not what you came here to read. Below are five predictions I’m comfortable making for the 2020-21 Tennessee basketball season.

1. This team should be expected to be as good as the 2017-18 and 2018-19 Vols. Meaning Tennessee’s back on track to becoming a top 15, maybe even top 10 program in the new age of college basketball. Considering Tennessee’s identity for most of my life has been that of a top 35, maybe even top 30 program, this is a serious upgrade, and Rick Barnes should be commended for this. Both KenPom and Torvik have the Vols at the low end of their respective top 20s, which is lower than most national experts have Tennessee, but Tennessee also has the lowest 2019-20 finish of any program in either site’s top 20. Give these Vols time to figure it out on the court, and assuming they play at the level experts claim they will, these rankings will react appropriately.
2. For the second season in a row, John Fulkerson will lead Tennessee in scoring. This is not really going out on a limb, but I feel like I’ve seen Fulkerson somehow go under the radar a little despite being named preseason First-Team All-SEC. Fulkerson ended up winning the 2019-20 scoring battle by two points over Jordan Bowden, and at least for the first few weeks, Fulkerson will be relied upon to guide the younger players into their new roles and carry a big chunk of the scoring load.
3. By season’s end, Josiah-Jordan James will be the sixth man. This is of no diss to James, who I think was kind of underrated last year and is particularly useful as a defensive piece. I think it’s as simple as the fact both Johnson and Springer could very well end up being two of the ten best freshmen in this class, and if they pan out appropriately, both will be better end-game plays than James is currently likely to be. Still, James should be a part of any need-a-stop lineup Tennessee throws out in clutch situations.
4. At least one Tennessee game will be postponed or outright cancelled due to COVID. Feels like a free money bet. I think Tennessee themselves should be safe in Knoxville, but I have to admit I’m getting worried about the Indiana swing in early December (Gonzaga in Indianapolis, Notre Dame in South Bend two days later) where cases are shooting up at record speeds.
5. Tennessee will finish the season as a 3 seed. Does this seem low? It sure seems low to a lot of people, I think. But think about it this way: Tennessee’s main rotation, in all likelihood, will feature at least two freshmen and at least two sophomores, if not three of both. (Walker and Nkamhoua are the swing pieces in both here, or maybe Gaines, I guess.) It will take time for things to gel properly. But by season’s end, I would be a little surprised if Tennessee isn’t both a serious SEC title contender and playing basketball worthy of a top-three seed line. (Before you ask, I do not make “how far will they go?” predictions, because there is no set field of 68 for me to look at.) 3 seeds are good, and a 3 seed has made the last two national title games. Put that stat on VolQuest’s forums in March!

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