How stats and history would pick the 2021 NCAA Tournament

Final Four

(1) Gonzaga over (4) Florida State. Well, obviously. More importantly, Gonzaga sits at 47% to make the title game. It’s absolutely insane for any team to essentially be a 50/50 shot at being half of the title game participants, and it’s the second-highest number in the KenPom era behind 2000-01 Duke. I’m not picking against the greatest team in years.

(2) Houston over (2) Ohio State. Yes, I am picking the rarest of things: a no-Big Six title game. This is absurd, of course, but it makes sense. Only seven 2 seeds have made the title game over the last 19 years. 17 different 2 seeds entered the Tournament with 15% or better odds to make the title game. Six – an impressive 35.3% – made it. Houston is no lower than 17% in any metric I use, and Torvik has them as high as 25%. I’m riding with the Cougars.

National Championship

There are two options here: be long and drawn-out, or simply cut to the chase.

(1) Gonzaga over (2) Houston. The best team of the last 15 years wins the national championship.

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