2019 Tennessee high school football preseason projections

Preseason Top Tens, by Class

These are not rankings of teams most likely to win their class championship; this is a ranking of the top ten (+ honorable mentions) teams in each class by my preseason rating formula. However, it mostly lines up with the championship odds. Honorable mentions are restricted to any team within seven points in the ratings system of #10 in their class.

1A:

• 1. Huntingdon
• 2. Whitwell
• 3. South Pittsburg
• 4. Greenback
• 5. Cornersville
• 6. Lake County
• 7. Oliver Springs
• 8. Mount Pleasant
• 9. Coalfield
• 10. Freedom Prep Academy
• HM: Gordonsville, Huntland, Cloudland, Moore Co., Harriman, Wayne Co., Dresden

The first overall team has stayed consistently at the top since I ran the rough draft of these rankings a month ago. Huntingdon returns 15 starters from a 12-1 team that came a touchdown short of the 1A semifinals last year. Given that their opponent Cornersville (returns just 5 starters) handily took care of semifinal opponent Lake Co. (15 starters back), it’s not unreasonable to say Huntingdon was a play or two away from the 1A championship game. Behind them is Whitwell, last year’s state champions. Whitwell is noticeably higher than most will have them, as they return just nine starters and have a new head coach. However, it’s a 15-0 team that’s favored by double digits in eight of their ten games and has just one region game of serious importance: South Pittsburg. South Pitt returns 14 starters from an 11-2 team and is one of our six main title contenders. Greenback is another; a 12-1 team returns just eight starters but is 51-6 in their last four years. Until further notice, they are a title contender. Lake Co. was mentioned earlier, but they are double-digit favorites in all six of their region games. The second tier – Oliver Springs, Mount Pleasant, Coalfield, and Freedom Prep Academy – all figure to potentially capitalize in a wide-open class. In particular, the latter three teams have 15+ starters returning. This is the least-predictable class in 2019; the top six teams all have at least a 10% chance of winning the title.

2A:

• 1. Peabody
• 2. Trousdale Co.
• 3. Meigs Co.
• 4. Waverly Central
• 5. Tyner Academy
• 6. Watertown
• 7. Riverside
• 8. Fairley
• 9. Lewis Co.
• 10. Union City
• HM: Eagleville, Forrest, Oneida

Peabody is favored to repeat as 2A champions. 12 starters return from last year’s 14-1 title-winners, and they could be even better; they have around a 43% shot at a 10-0 regular season, and that’s conservative. Trousdale Co., last year’s runner-up, is in a tight 2A-4 race with Watertown; Trousdale returns four more starters, but has a new head coach. Meigs Co. is the best East Tennessee-ish 2A team, with 14 starters returning from a 13-1 squad that came three points short of a 2A title game appearance. Waverly Central and Riverside look to provide a brutal 2A-6 battle that provides the winner with the ability to avoid a second-round matchup with projected 2A-5 winner Lewis Co. (favored in eight of nine scheduled games). It could provide us with a quarterfinals rematch between the two regardless. Tyner Academy‘s 2A-3 is comparatively weak, which should make for a fun regular season for the Rams (15 returning starters). At the back of the pack, all right at around 1% to win the title: Union City is second fiddle to Peabody but returns 15 starters from a team that made the quarterfinals; Fairley is the top team in a forgettable 2A-8, with Mitchell as their toughest competition; Eagleville and Forrest are virtually tied for #2 in 2A-5; Oneida has a brutal regular season schedule that could have them entering the playoffs at 5-5 but with a near-50% shot at a quarterfinals run.

3A:

• 1. Alcoa
• 2. Pearl-Cohn
• 3. East Nashville
• 4. Austin-East
• 5. Covington
• 6. Upperman
• 7. Fairview
• 8. Red Bank
• 9. Stratford
• 10. McNairy Central
• HM: Milan, York Institute, Sequatchie Co., South Gibson, Giles Co., Camden Central

They could return zero starters and it wouldn’t matter; until someone knocks them off, Alcoa is the clear favorite to win 3A yet again. The race from 2-6 is very tight, and any of them could make the title game/be possible champions. Pearl-Cohn and East Nashville, who would play each other in the 3A quarterfinals after a season together in 3A-5, are just barely on top of this group. However, P-C returns just eight starters, while East Nashville brings back 14. Austin-East has the misfortune of sharing a region with Alcoa, which dampens their upper range of outcomes. Still, this could be their fifth-straight season of 9+ wins, and a fourth straight quarterfinals-or-better run is nothing to laugh at. Covington returns 14 starters from last year’s 3A runner-up, but has to get through the toughest 3A-7 in some time. Upperman, likewise, has to navigate a tougher-than-usual 3A-4, fending off York Institute and Sequatchie Co. Fairview is the best of a just-okay 3A-6, but their upper range, like A-E, is limited; they will have to face one of Pearl-Cohn or East Nashville (possibly Stratford) in the quarterfinals, followed by a date with…Pearl-Cohn or East Nashville. Red Bank is in line for another great season, but will have to get past both of Upperman/York Institute to make the semifinals, where they’d likely play Alcoa. Stratford‘s miracle run last postseason has greatly influenced their 2019 starting ratings; it’s a team that brings back 13 starters but lost three-fifths of their offensive line and has a very tough four-game run to start the year. FINALLY: McNairy Central, Milan, and South Gibson are part of the reason 3A-7 will be so tough. Camden Central shares 3A-6 with Fairview, but anything above an 8-2 season will be very tough to achieve.

4A:

• 1. Greeneville
• 2. Anderson Co.
• 3. Haywood
• 4. Maplewood
• 5. Elizabethton
• 6. Springfield
• 7. Tullahoma
• 8. Nolensville
• 9. Marshall Co.
• 10. Dyersburg
• HM: Crockett Co., Jackson North Side, Hardin Co., Jackson South Side, Montgomery Central, Sullivan South

A new head coach may be running things, but until further notice, it’s the same old Greeneville; even my most conservative projection has them at 79% to win the 4A title for a third straight season. Their only clear upper-bracket foil is Anderson Co., who is 24-2 the last two seasons but lost 12 of 22 starters. Luckily for them, not a single other team in their region is in this poll. Haywood lost the state title last year and lost 14 starters and their coach; I think this rating is too high. Still, they’ll be good. Maplewood is the same; they lost a lot from last year’s 12-2 team and are in an insane 4A-4. Elizabethton got demolished by Anderson Co. last year, but they were the only regular season team to give Greeneville any form of a scare. Springfield is a sneaky bet for a 4A title game run; they return 12 starters from last year’s semifinals team and should be sizable favorites against all opponents until a coin-flip semifinals. Tullahoma is right behind Maplewood in 4A-4, as are Nolensville and Marshall Co. Any of the four could win the region, and any of the four could play Greeneville in the semifinals. Dyersburg will battle Haywood for 4A-7 during the regular season and the postseason; there’s a 60% chance of a Dyersburg-Haywood quarterfinals matchup. The rest: Crockett Co. is right behind Dyersburg and Haywood; Jacksons North and South, along with Hardin Co., present one of the most fun region battles in the state in 4A-6, as the three teams are projected within a 0.32-win range in region play. Montgomery Central has a 10% shot of a semifinal run; Sullivan South has to play Greeneville at some point.

5A:

• 1. Knoxville Central
• 2. Henry Co.
• 3. Oak Ridge
• 4. Fulton
• 5. Beech
• 6. David Crockett
• 7. Powell
• 8. Hillsboro
• 9. Knoxville West
• 10. Kirby
• HM: Page, Daniel Boone, South-Doyle, Tennessee, Northeast, Shelbyville Central

Knoxville Central and Henry Co. are projected for a Cavs/Warriors-type championship repeat; Central returns 13 starters and Henry 11. They’re the safest bets, but neither is higher than 35% to win the title. Oak Ridge (13 starters) and Fulton (7) are projected right next to each other, as usual, but a new 5A-3 contestant is Powell (13). I think Fulton is a little high in these ratings, but, again, until proven otherwise, they’re a yearly title contender. Oak Ridge was a few points short of a semifinals appearance; Powell was an ineligible player away from a date with a flawed Knoxville Catholic team in the first round of last year’s playoffs. Oh, and Knoxville West is in 5A-3, meaning four of the nine best teams in 5A play in the same region. Beech and Hillsboro will fight for a 5A-6 crown and, potentially, a semifinal appearance…that is, if the regular season winner doesn’t have to play likely 5A-5 winner Page instead. Last year’s most pleasant surprise, David Crockett, loses 13 starters from a 12-1 team but brings back their QB, top two running backs, and D-1 recruit Donta Hackler. Others: Kirby is favored in all ten of their games; South-Doyle is way too low in these and seems like a good sleeper pick; Daniel Boone and Tennessee both return plenty from good teams; Northeast is kind of forgotten given that they share 5A-7 with Henry Co., but they were a good team last year that had to forfeit several games; Shelbyville Central went 9-3 last year and returns legit SEC-level talent Gary Smith (OL/DL) for his senior year.

6A:

• 1. Oakland
• 2. Maryville
• 3. Mount Juliet
• 4. Ravenwood
• 5. Blackman
• 6. Whitehaven
• 7. Farragut
• 8. Cane Ridge
• 9. Germantown
• 10. Memphis Central
• HM: Bearden, Cordova, Houston, Brentwood, Science Hill, Independence

Nothing stunning; the best team in 6A last year in Oakland is the favorite. Also not surprising: perennial favorite Maryville in #2. I have no idea how many of them are actually playing, but Ravenwood is a great mystery pick and might be my actual pick to win the title; they seem to have created a graduate transfer rule for high school football out of thin air. Blackman is forced to play second fiddle to Oakland, but that’s not a bad thing; they’re a clear #2 in 6A-3. They’ll have to get past emerging power Mount Juliet, however, who is expected to go 10-0 for the third straight regular season and nearly defeated Oakland last season. Whitehaven was last year’s 6A runner-up, but has a tough road to 6A glory; just to make the state semifinal, they’ll have to play and beat at least two of the top 13 teams in the poll. Farragut figures to be the class of 6A-1 yet again, but a title game run requires beating two of Maryville/Oakland/Blackman; Bearden, Science Hill and Dobyns-Bennett could cause some noise here too. Cane Ridge is the best team in 6A-5 and should be expected to make the quarterfinals; anything above that is unexpected icing on the cake. Germantown and Memphis Central back up Whitehaven in 6A-8. Neither is expected to have any serious title shot, but both one upset of Whitehaven could create a matchup between the two in the quarterfinals. Others: Cordova and Houston should rule 6A-7, with the winner getting to avoid Whitehaven until the semifinals. Brentwood and Independence will battle for second in 6A-6; neither is a great bet for much noise beyond the quarterfinals, if that.

Private Schools

II-A:

• 1. Davidson Academy
• 2. Friendship Christian
• 3. Columbia Academy
• 4. Fayette Academy
• 5. University School of Jackson
• HM: Nashville Christian, Trinity Christian Academy, Middle Tennessee Christian

Last year’s title game winner and runner-up remain 1 and 2 in this poll; both Davidson Academy and Friendship Christian should handily win their regions. However, due to the structure of II-A’s bracket (unless it gets altered between now and November), Columbia Academy has an excellent shot at the finals, as do Fayette Academy and University School of Jackson. Potential spoilers: Nashville Christian projects to be fairly feisty; Trinity Christian Academy and Middle Tennessee Christian both need to heavily outperform projections to be of November interest.

II-AA:

• 1. Christ Presbyterian Academy
• 2. Battle Ground Academy
• 3. Lausanne
• 4. Evangelical Christian
• 5. Notre Dame
• HM: Franklin Road Academy, Webb, Lipscomb Academy

The top three teams in this poll are literally ranked right next to each other in statewide ratings – #16, #17, and #18 – and one of the three should win the title. Christ Presbyterian Academy won it last year by 20 points but lost a lot to graduation; Battle Ground Academy lost the title game last year but returns a lot and went 11-1 against non-CPA teams last year; Lausanne is a perennial power that lost a 5-star but surely will feature numerous potential D-1 players in his place. Beyond them, Evangelical Christian and Notre Dame are somewhat interesting roulette shots at a state title, but it’s a very tough road for either to even make the title game. Same for Franklin Road Academy, Webb, and Lipscomb Academy, all good teams that have a hard road to travel. If I personally had to pick a non-Big Three team to win it, it would be Notre Dame.

II-AAA:

• 1. Brentwood Academy
• 2. McCallie
• 3. Knoxville Catholic
• 4. Memphis University
• 5. Montgomery Bell Academy
• HM: Ensworth, Christian Brothers, Baylor

The most ruthless class out there. It’s an eight-team playoff, meaning a team as good as Baylor – who I have as one of the ~35 best teams in the state – isn’t currently projected to make the playoffs. This class has five of the state’s top 15 projected teams in it, though one is expected to be head and shoulders above the rest: Brentwood Academy. It’s a perennial power with a lot expected to return from their fourth straight title team; why won’t they win a fifth? McCallie and Knoxville Catholic (welcome back to private school play!) figure to be the toughest competition. Behind them, Montgomery Bell Academy and Memphis University are potential spoilers, both of which would be top-tier contenders in any other class in Tennessee but appear to be likely second-class citizens in II-AAA. Ensworth, Christian Brothers, Baylor, and the rest could all be first-round spoilers for a title favorite. If the title is won by a non-top three team – and really, if it’s won by anyone other than BA – it would be a serious surprise.