Via @JPIIAthletics on Twitter.

Tennessee high school football projections, week 5

Week five has arrived! Last week’s projections finished about two wins below expectation, though still pretty good: 131-35 (78.9%), putting these picks at 533-159 (77%) on the season. It’s about four wins below where I’d like to be, but again, we’ve hit the goal of 77% and all four wins would do is get us to 77.6%. It’s a small-enough margin that I’m comfortable with.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Last week ended up being better than expected! 39 of 166 (23.5%) games ended with an eight-point or lower margin. The Blowout of the Week Award goes to Macon County, who defeated Glencliff by a final score of 70-8. (Serious credit to Glencliff for going for two.) NINE GAMES (!!!) ended with a one-point margin, which is easily the best output I’ve seen to date. (The best of these had to be Beech-Hendersonville, which ended with a Beech TD on the final play.)

This week is expected to be the least-competitive so far. Only 31 of the 167 games are projected within 7.5 points, and an astounding 74 games have the favorite at 90% or better to win. Hopefully, like last week, it’s more competitive than expected, but there seem to be a lot of likely blowouts. Favorites are expected to go 139.5-27.5 (83.5%). Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 4:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 68-51 (57.1%); 9-9 last week
  • 60-69%: 87-48 (64.4%); 19-12 last week
  • 70-79%: 79-41 (65.8%); 24-11 last week
  • 80-89%: 99-12 (89.2%); 21-2 last week
  • 90-100%: 199-8 (96.1%); 58-1 last week

No real earth-shattering upsets last week, though Smyrna defeated Riverdale as a 23-point underdog, 27-17.

Now, for this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

  • Knoxville Halls 30 at Carter 15 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 21 at Hillcrest 14
  • Hamilton 17 at KIPP Collegiate 25
  • Raleigh-Egypt 13 at Melrose 27
  • Bluff City 7 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 30
  • Memphis East 30 at Memphis Business Academy 18
  • King Prep 20 at Sheffield 26

Friday

  • Peabody 41 at Adamsville 2
  • Pigeon Forge 0 at Alcoa 64
  • Houston 43 at Arlington 13
  • Cordova 35 at Bartlett 12
  • Sweetwater 29 at Brainerd 19
  • Ravenwood 33 at Brentwood 20
  • Father Ryan 3 at Brentwood Academy 38
  • Munford 27 at Brighton 26
  • Red Boiling Springs 7 at Byrns [Jo] 36
  • Silverdale Academy 15 at CAK 34
  • Cheatham Co. Central 8 at Camden Central 37
  • Antioch 0 at Cane Ridge 52
  • Upperman 37 at Cannon Co. 11
  • Watertown 45 at Cascade 8
  • Seymour 0 at Central 47
  • East Hamilton 31 at Chattanooga Central 12
  • Boyd-Buchanan 22 at Chattanooga Christian 29
  • Volunteer 21 at Cherokee 44 (7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV)
  • Liberty Tech Magnet 23 at Chester Co. 21
  • Battle Ground Academy 36 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 17
  • Pope John Paul II 25 at Christian Brothers 21
  • Henry Co. 34 at Clarksville 19
  • Trinity Christian Academy 28 at Clarksville Academy 21
  • Gordonsville 16 at Clay Co. 31
  • Heritage 7 at Cleveland 50
  • White Station 27 at Collierville 19
  • Perry Co. 11 at Collinwood 36
  • Nashville Christian 29 at Columbia Academy 15
  • Eagleville 38 at Community 17
  • Oakland 47 at Cookeville 3
  • Mount Pleasant 27 at Cornersville 22
  • Happy Valley 39 at Cosby 3
  • Westview 20 at Covington 38
  • Bolton 7 at Crockett Co. 41
  • Macon Co. 36 at Cumberland Co. 6
  • Oneida 35 at Cumberland Gap 0
  • Cocke Co. 8 at David Crockett 50
  • Grundy Co. 14 at DeKalb Co. 34
  • Centennial 35 at Dickson Co. 16
  • Hardin Valley 10 at Dobyns-Bennett 39
  • Franklin Road Academy 32 at Donelson Christian Academy 13
  • Greenfield 32 at Dresden 19
  • Northeast 14 at Dyer Co. 37
  • Houston Co. 35 at East Hickman Co. 9
  • Grainger 6 at Elizabethton 49
  • Baylor 14 at Ensworth 25
  • Sycamore 14 at Fairview 35
  • Kingsbury 8 at Fayette Ware 36
  • St. George’s 31 at First Assembly Christian 21
  • Loretto 8 at Forrest 41
  • Davidson Academy 28 at Friendship Christian 36
  • Humboldt 22 at Fulton Co. (KY) 40
  • Hillwood 4 at Gallatin 55
  • Olive Branch (MS) 28 at Germantown 16
  • Campbell Co. 23 at Gibbs 27
  • Union City 22 at Gibson Co. 24
  • Stratford 27 at Giles Co. 31
  • Hillsboro 54 at Glencliff 0
  • Scott 9 at GPittman 34
  • Middle Tennessee Christian 21 at Grace Baptist Academy 27
  • Notre Dame 31 at Grace Christian 27
  • Mount Juliet Christian Academy 43 at Grace Christian Academy 10
  • Oliver Springs 23 at Greenback 27
  • Austin-East 18 at Greeneville 39
  • Cloudland 32 at Hancock Co. 16
  • Jackson South Side 10 at Hardin Co. 35
  • Sunbright 19 at Harriman 27
  • Dyersburg 18 at Haywood 40
  • Lebanon 16 at Hendersonville 28 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • Sequoyah 23 at Hixson 32
  • Memphis Central 20 at Holmes Co. Central (MS) 26
  • Anderson Co. 34 at Howard Tech 19
  • Beech 47 at Hunters Lane 0
  • Franklin 13 at Independence 36
  • University School of Jackson 31 at Jackson Christian 13
  • East Robertson 25 at Jackson Co. 20
  • Lexington 15 at Jackson North Side 25
  • Unaka 19 at Jellico 34
  • Fulton 38 at Karns 22
  • Northview 8 at Kingston 32
  • Southwind 19 at Kirby 33
  • Harding Academy 14 at Lausanne Collegiate 45
  • Summertown 9 at Lewis Co. 33
  • Columbia Central 27 at Lincoln Co. 25
  • Goodpasture Christian 10 at Lipscomb Academy 38
  • Douglass [Frederick] 25 at Manassas 18
  • Marshall Co. 26 at Maplewood 19
  • Tyner Academy 35 at Marion Co. 13
  • Knox Catholic 10 at McCallie 35
  • Huntingdon 55 at McEwen 4
  • Halls 14 at McKenzie 36
  • Red Bank 44 at McMinn Central 9
  • William Blount 15 at McMinn Co. 32
  • South Gibson 25 at McNairy Central 24
  • Montgomery Bell Academy 9 at Memphis University 31
  • Freedom Prep Academy 36 at Middle College 15
  • Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 35 at Middleton 21
  • Bolivar Central 12 at Milan 39
  • Trezevant 18 at Millington Central 27
  • Fairley 24 at Mitchell 18
  • Pickett Co. 4 at Monterey 47
  • Creek Wood 25 at Montgomery Central 19
  • Fayetteville 30 at Moore Co. 17
  • Farragut 38 at Morristown West 12
  • Wilson Central 25 at Mount Juliet 17
  • Summit 38 at Nashville Overton 3
  • Lawrence Co. 10 at Nolensville 36
  • Sale Creek 21 at North Georgia (GA) 29
  • Chuckey-Doak 53 at North Greene 1
  • Evangelical Christian 42 at Northpoint Christian 0
  • Kenwood 19 at Northwest 23
  • Knoxville West 28 at Oak Ridge 18
  • Coalfield 45 at Oakdale 0
  • Bradley Central 31 at Ooltewah 20 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
  • Tellico Plains 30 at Polk Co. 16
  • Clinton 2 at Powell 50
  • Pearl-Cohn 68 at RePublic 0
  • Lenoir City 9 at Rhea Co. 40
  • Lookout Valley 16 at Richland 33
  • Memphis Overton 6 at Ridgeway 44
  • Obion Co. 18 at Ripley 33
  • Rockvale 3 at Riverdale 46
  • Hickman Co. 14 at Riverside 27
  • Meigs Co. 35 at Rockwood 6
  • Station Camp 10 at Rossview 33
  • Jefferson Co. 19 at Science Hill 29
  • East Ridge 19 at Sequatchie Co. 28
  • South-Doyle 41 at Sevier Co. 10
  • Coffee Co. Central 16 at Siegel 32
  • Loudon 29 at Signal Mountain 16
  • McGavock 9 at Smyrna 34
  • Huntland 8 at South Pittsburg 39
  • Whitehaven 29 at Southaven (MS) 17
  • Tullahoma 31 at Spring Hill 10
  • Briarcrest Christian 45 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 1
  • Harpeth 19 at Stewart Co. 28
  • LaVergne 16 at Stewarts Creek 36
  • Livingston Academy 41 at Stone Memorial 5
  • South Greene 37 at Sullivan North 13
  • Sullivan Central 15 at Sullivan South 42
  • Morristown East 8 at Tennessee 43
  • Fayette Academy 32 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 17
  • Westmoreland 12 at Trousdale Co. 29
  • Claiborne 17 at Unicoi Co. 34
  • Sullivan East 20 at Union Co. 32
  • Blackman 40 at Warren Co. 9
  • Midway 22 at Wartburg 31
  • Westwood 25 at Washington 19
  • Scotts Hill 9 at Waverly Central 43
  • King’s Academy 36 at Webb Bell Buckle 18
  • Gleason 8 at West Carroll 46
  • Portland 32 at West Creek 19
  • Johnson Co. 22 at West Greene 26
  • Walker Valley 28 at White Co. 24
  • Springfield 31 at White House 22
  • Greenbrier 11 at White House-Heritage 42
  • East Nashville 50 at Whites Creek 0
  • Copper Basin 27 at Whitwell 25
  • Craigmont 3 at Wooddale 44
  • Smith Co. 31 at York Institute 21

167 games this week, 145 of them in Region play. While there aren’t a ton of close games on the schedule, an unexpected Week 5 result can turn the season-long projections upside down. Next Tuesday, I’ll have a post that sort of checks how things are going midway through the season – who’s doing better than expected, who’s worse, and what regions have the most left up in the air. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.

  • Baylor (4-0, 1-0) at Ensworth (4-0, 1-0) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). It’s not exactly out of nowhere, but Ensworth has risen from a preseason fourth-place projection in II-AAA East to second, while Baylor has jumped from fifth to fourth. Considering only four teams from the two II-AAA regions make the playoffs, this game in particular has a ton at stake for both teams. Both are 4-0 and 1-0 in region play, but Baylor still has to play McCallie, Brentwood Academy, and Knoxville Catholic. Considering they’ll be underdogs in two of those three games, they really need a win to feel comfortable about their playoff status. Ensworth, meanwhile, is a double-digit favorite and this and the remainder of their first eight games.
  • Pope John Paul II (3-1, 0-1) at Christian Brothers (2-2, 0-1) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). A battle of two teams that are slightly better (PJP) or worse (Christian Brothers) than expected. Both lost their first II-AAA West games to better teams, and both really need a win to have playoff status confidence. Christian Brothers endured a tough 13-7 home loss to White Station last week, while PJP pulled off an excellent road win at Father Ryan.
  • Ravenwood (4-0, 2-0) at Brentwood (3-1, 1-0) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). The Battle of the Woods promises to be unusually special this year. Ravenwood has navigated a tough opening run with wins at Blackman and at home over Pulaski Academy; Brentwood has overachieved expectations a little bit with a road win over Cane Ridge, though last week’s loss at Henry County dampens expectations a little. The spread of Ravenwood by 13.6 points is the lowest remaining projected margin on their schedule; they have a 62% chance of a 10-0 season.
  • South Gibson (4-0, 1-0) at McNairy Central (3-1, 0-1) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Now this is not a game you’d expect to see! South Gibson was a projected mid-pack team in 3A-7 before the year, but a surprising 4-0 start with a pair of road wins has correctly changed expectations. McNairy, meanwhile, has mostly been what I expected: a 7-3ish team with a tough 57-49 road loss to a far-better-than-expected Westview. This is a massive swing game for 3A-7, as McNairy currently has just a 0.34-win margin on fifth-place Milan. For second-place South Gibson, this is an absolute must-win if they have hopes of keeping pace with 3A title contender Covington.
  • Knoxville West (4-0, 1-0) at Oak Ridge (2-2, 1-0) (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). After a turd of an 0-2 start, Oak Ridge has mostly returned to preseason expectations, smoking Campbell County and pulling off a surprising home win against Farragut. West, meanwhile, is a wrecking crew: they’ve beaten 6A squads Bearden, Farragut, and Jefferson County. If they were in 6A-1, they’d have locked up a playoff spot already with a 3-0 record. If West wins this, they should be able to start 7-0 before the Powell game in Week 8; an Oak Ridge win would completely erase the stench of the first two games and likely allow them to run out to a 4-0 start in 5A-3.
  • Honorable Mentions: Columbia Central at Lincoln County (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Marshall County at Maplewood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); White Station at Collierville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Olive Branch (MS) at Germantown (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Whitehaven at Southaven (MS) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Oliver Springs at Greenback (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link or below:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

Credit to The Daily Times.

Tennessee high school football projections, Week 4

Hello to Week 4! Week 3 was my system’s best week yet, coming in at 142-30 (82.6%) and three-ish games above expectation. That puts the system at 402-124 (76.4%) through three weeks, which is about two wins below where I’d like it to be, but is pretty darn close to the goal of 77% or better after Week 3.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Onward to Week 4. Last week looked pretty rough on paper, but 36 games out of 172 (20.9%) ended with an eight-point or lower margin. Some of the games were pretty good! There were even two games that ended with the exact same 42-41 score. (Thanks to White House-Heritage, Springfield, Adamsville, and Union City for their collective services.) This week is expected to be similar to last: not many very close games with a lot of likely blowouts. Favorites are expected to go 133-34 (79.7%), which is about 0.6% lower than last week. Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 3:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 59-42 (58.4%); 13-7 last week
  • 60-69%: 68-36 (65.4%); 18-13 last week
  • 70-79%: 55-30 (64.7%); 20-7 last week
  • 80-89%: 78-10 (88.6%); 32-0 last week
  • 90-100%: 141-7 (95.3%); 59-3 last week

Before we move on, there were four 90%+ upsets last week, all of which were pretty stunning: Boyd-Buchanan over Webb (3.6% odds of happening), Hunters Lane over Hillwood (1.7%); and Whitehaven over North Little Rock (AR) (1%). I kept double-checking to see if the Whitehaven numbers were a mistake and they weren’t; North Little Rock appears to have been massively overrated. Either way, all of these are in line with what you’d expect, minus the bizarre 70-79% underperformance. That’ll eventually regress to the mean.

Finally, on to this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

  • Maryville 24.9 at Alcoa 24.6 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 20 at Manassas 14

Friday

  • South-Doyle 34 at Anderson Co. 22
  • Fulton 27 at Austin-East 25
  • Memphis Central 26 at Bartlett 19
  • Franklin-Simpson (KY) 10 at Battle Ground Academy 39
  • Bradley Central 26 at Bearden 20
  • Jackson North Side 32 at Bolivar Central 18
  • St. Benedict at Auburndale 35 at Bolton 12
  • Whitehaven 18 at Brentwood Academy 28
  • Montgomery Bell Academy 15 at Briarcrest Christian 25
  • Wooddale 18 at Byhalia (MS) 27
  • Stone Memorial 14 at CAK 36
  • Seymour 14 at Campbell Co. 34
  • Lenoir City 18 at Carter 28
  • Huntland 32 at Cascade 17
  • Douglass [Frederick] 7 at Center Hill (MS) 37
  • Baylor 46 at Chattanooga Central 1
  • Morristown West 25 at Cherokee 33
  • White Station 16 at Christian Brothers 30
  • Unaka 10 at Claiborne 42
  • Sunbright 7 at Coalfield 37
  • GPittman 36 at Cocke Co. 22
  • Southaven (MS) 25 at Collierville 17
  • Loretto 28 at Collinwood 20
  • Nashville Overton 17 at Columbia Central 29
  • Cannon Co. 25 at Community 26
  • Lausanne Collegiate 22 at Cordova 31
  • Grace Christian Academy 5 at Cornersville 48
  • Brighton 14 at Covington 39
  • King Prep 17 at Craigmont 36
  • South Gibson 30 at Crockett Co. 20
  • Clay Co. 36 at Cumberland Co. 11
  • Columbia Academy 24 at Davidson Academy 34
  • McGavock 24 at Dickson Co. 17
  • Ripley 19 at Dyer Co. 35
  • Hardin Co. 25 at Dyersburg 30
  • Red Bank 27 at East Hamilton 17
  • Stewart Co. 28 at East Hickman Co. 22
  • Brainerd 0 at East Nashville 48
  • Daniel Boone 23 at Elizabethton 37
  • Christ Presbyterian Academy 6 at Ensworth 40
  • Pope John Paul II 22 at Father Ryan 23
  • Trinity Christian Academy 20 at Fayette Academy 31
  • Oakhaven 3 at First Assembly Christian 37
  • Summit 26 at Franklin 16
  • St. George’s 18 at Franklin Road Academy 35
  • South Fulton 45 at Fulton City (KY) 14
  • Sullivan South 23 at Gate City (VA) 29
  • Oakland 42 at Germantown 7
  • Sheffield 2 at Gibson Co. 39
  • Halls 37 at Gleason 18
  • RePublic 6 at Goodpasture Christian 48
  • Friendship Christian 35 at Grace Baptist Academy 12
  • Scott 19 at Grainger 25
  • Oneida 29 at Greenback 15
  • Portland 36 at Greenbrier 14
  • Bledsoe Co. 40 at Grundy Co. 6
  • Cloudland 20 at Hampton 27
  • Central 35 at Hardin Valley 9
  • Freedom Prep Academy 33 at Harding Academy 23
  • Creek Wood 37 at Harpeth 6
  • Liberty Tech Magnet 0 at Haywood 50
  • Beech 24.15 at Hendersonville 24.25
  • Brentwood 34 at Henry Co. 18
  • William Blount 39 at Heritage 16
  • Fairley 22 at Hernando (MS) 30
  • Nashville Christian 40 at Hillwood 17
  • Sequatchie Co. 39 at Hixson 12
  • Evangelical Christian 27 at Houston 23
  • Byrns [Jo] 0 at Houston Co. 38
  • Tyner Academy 29 at Howard Tech 17
  • White House 32 at Hunters Lane 15
  • Camden Central 19 at Huntingdon 37
  • Blackman 32 at Independence 24
  • Clarksville Academy 23 at Jackson Christian 26
  • Red Boiling Springs 8 at Jackson Co. 38
  • Peabody 38 at Jackson South Side 6
  • Powell 57 at Karns 3
  • Hillsboro 25 at Kenwood 15
  • Hillcrest 22 at KIPP Collegiate 16
  • Jefferson Co. 10 at Knoxville West 33
  • Adamsville 15 at Kossuth (MS) 28
  • Humboldt 0 at Lake Co. 64
  • Lebanon 28 at LaVergne 19
  • Warren Co. 18 at Lawrence Co. 28
  • Rossville Christian Academy 12 at Lee Academy (MS) 39
  • East Robertson 8 at Lewis Co. 42
  • Arlington 21 at Lewisburg (MS) 33
  • Spring Hill 14 at Lincoln Co. 32
  • Hayesville (NC) 22 at Lookout Valley 19
  • Glencliff 5 at Macon Co. 40
  • Pearl-Cohn 41 at Maplewood 12
  • South Pittsburg 37 at Marion Co. 11
  • Shelbyville Central 20 at Marshall Co. 28
  • Stellar Prep (CA) 0 at McCallie 51
  • Jellico 18 at McCreary Central (KY) 31
  • Chester Co. 3 at McNairy Central 44
  • Clinton 16 at Meigs Co. 36
  • Memphis Nighthawks 15 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 29
  • Kingsbury 17 at Memphis Overton 32
  • Melrose 0 at Memphis University 47
  • Greenfield 24 at Middle College 21
  • Donelson Christian Academy 30 at Middle Tennessee Christian 19
  • Cosby 13 at Midway 35
  • Lexington 18 at Milan 23
  • Northpoint Christian 14 at Millington Central 29
  • Harriman 12 at Monterey 34
  • Forrest 32 at Moore Co. 16
  • Gibbs 27 at Morristown East 22
  • Gallatin 23.5 at Mount Juliet 24.1
  • King’s Academy 23 at Mount Juliet Christian Academy 29
  • Fayetteville 20 at Mount Pleasant 28
  • Twin Springs (VA) 33 at North Greene 18
  • Rossview 26 at Northeast 21
  • Montgomery Central 22 at Northwest 28
  • Farragut 28 at Oak Ridge 21
  • Wartburg 46 at Oakdale 2
  • Northview 6 at Oliver Springs 36
  • McMinn Co. 22 at Ooltewah 27
  • Lipscomb Academy 15 at Page 27
  • Hickman Co. 37 at Perry Co. 7
  • Eagleville 49 at Pickett Co. 6
  • Sullivan Central 24 at Pigeon Forge 28
  • McMinn Central 27 at Polk Co. 19
  • Pulaski Academy (AR) 30 at Ravenwood 33 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV, also on something called Stadium?)
  • Mitchell 15 at Ridgeway 27
  • Clarksville 39 at Rockvale 11
  • Kingston 18 at Rockwood 20
  • Hancock Co. 23 at Rye Cove (VA) 24
  • Greeneville 33 at Science Hill 21 (7:00 PM ET, FOX 39 Tri-Cities)
  • Fayette Ware 26 at Scotts Hill 13
  • Loudon 45 at Sequoyah 7
  • Centennial 30 at Siegel 27
  • Riverdale 36 at Smyrna 12
  • Cleveland 26 at Soddy Daisy 24
  • West Greene 14 at South Greene 38
  • Munford 21 at Southwind 28
  • Springfield 34 at Station Camp 16
  • Cane Ridge 21 at Stewarts Creek 34
  • Chuckey-Doak 24 at Sullivan North 28
  • Richland 16 at Summertown 26
  • Copper Basin 20 at Tellico Plains 32
  • Gordonsville 6 at Trousdale Co. 37
  • Franklin Co. 16 at Tullahoma 27
  • Happy Valley 29 at Unicoi Co. 16
  • Washington 7 at Union City 39
  • Knoxville Halls 36 at Union Co. 15
  • Tipton-Rosemark Academy 10 at University School of Jackson 33
  • Livingston Academy 17 at Upperman 29
  • Tennessee 40 at Virginia (VA) 10
  • Sullivan East 25 at Volunteer 35
  • Middleton 17 at Walnut (MS) 45
  • DeKalb Co. 14 at Watertown 36
  • Fairview 32 at Waverly Central 28
  • Riverside 32 at Wayne Co. 17
  • David Crockett 34 at Webb 13
  • Dresden 24 at West Carroll 28
  • Cheatham Co. Central 20 at West Creek 30
  • Obion Co. 13 at Westview 42
  • Cookeville 34 at White Co. 18
  • Sycamore 15 at White House-Heritage 32
  • Westmoreland 29 at Whites Creek 14
  • Signal Mountain 25 at Whitwell 21
  • Antioch 0 at Wilson Central 45
  • Grace Christian 30 at York Institute 22
  • Sale Creek 13 at Zion Christian Academy 36

167 games this week, bringing us to 694 on the year, I believe. It looks like there’s only 21 region games, which makes last week feel like a little bit of a false start, but there’s a lot more of region play to come. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.

  • Maryville at Alcoa (Thursday, 7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV). This is the Game of the Year in East Tennessee, bar none. Alcoa shocked everyone last year by winning 34-28, their first win in this crosstown series since 2010. Alcoa hasn’t lost a game since September 8, 2017 to Maryville and is the clear 3A title favorite; Maryville has demolished three overwhelmed opponents to the tune of a 138-28 total score. I can’t wait to see this one.
  • Pulaski Academy (AR) at Ravenwood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV). This…..might be the lower-case game of the year in Middle Tennessee. Pulaski has one of the meanest offenses in the nation, averaging 50.3 points per game last year and winning a game 84-68 (!!!!!!!) already this season. You know who they are because they have The Coach That Never Punts. Ravenwood, meanwhile, survived a great test from Blackman 16-13 last week and has mostly looked like the serious 6A contender everyone expected them to be.
  • Whitehaven at Brentwood Academy (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Whitehaven pulled off a true Upset, but BA themselves got knocked off by McCallie at home, 28-23. The ratings still see BA as the better team, but Sonny Moore is massively down on Whitehaven for reasons I don’t quite get. I wouldn’t be surprised at all by another Whitehaven win.
  • Gallatin at Mount Juliet (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This game wasn’t on my radar at all to start the year, but it certainly is now. Gallatin is 3-0 after going 5-6 last year; they’ve yet to win a game by less than 21 points. Mount Juliet lost what initially looked like a stunner to Stewarts Creek in Week 1, but now looks like a quality loss to a team that has a very real shot at a 10-0 season. This isn’t a required win for either, but Mount Juliet really needs to reassert their case as a possible 6A contender.
  • Beech at Hendersonville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Normally, it’s hard to find a fifth game that stands out; there’s usually 2-4 great ones and then I pick the best-looking good game. Not the case this week! This rivalry is the first game of the entire season where I’ve had to go to the hundredths to see who was favored; the projection I first received was literally Beech 24.2, Hendersonville 24.2. That alone would make this a must-watch game, even if it wasn’t between two very good teams.
  • Honorable Mentions: Pope John Paul II at Father Ryan (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Evangelical Christian at Houston (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Blackman at Independence (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cleveland at Soddy-Daisy (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Shelbyville Central at Marshall County (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Farragut at Oak Ridge (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

A special Honorable Mention as a biased alumnus: Warren County won a must-win game over Rockvale last Friday, 36-35. It’s their first Region win since October 14, 2016, and I couldn’t be prouder. They’re tracking towards a three or four-win season, which sounds meager, but even 4-6 would be their best regular season record since 2007. Go Pioneers! Thanks to Bobby Rader for giving them a mention at around 12:20 AM ET on the Vol Network BYU postgame show.

If you’d like to view it, here’s this week’s spreadsheet. The season-long sheet is linked here.

Best of luck to all teams involved this week.

Tennessee high school football projections, Week 2

Back for another week! Thank you to everyone who’s sent this out or has told someone they know about it or, in some way, is helping publicize these projections. Last week was, uh, far from ideal: a 120-58 (67.4%) hit rate looks okay on the surface until I tell you it was a full 13 games below expectation. On the plus side, last year’s Week 1 projections went very similarly (66.7%) and every week after was 75% or above. Week 1 is simply very hard to get right, and it is what it is. As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Now, let’s go to the games. This week’s expected projection W-L record is 132-44 (75%), which would be a solid recovery. Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 1:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 24-21 (53.3%)
  • 60-69%: 20-14 (58.8%)
  • 70-79%: 16-11 (59.3%)
  • 80-89%: 20-8 (71.4%)
  • 90-100%: 40-4 (90.9%)

As you can see, the coin-flip games were mostly coin flips, the slightly less coin-flip games were slightly-less coin flips…and then all of the games with fairly comfortable favorites went haywire. Poor Whitwell started out the week as a combined 45-point favorite in their two games and ended up 58 points in the hole, which sets a new record for projection error in one week. Community’s upset of Cornersville as a 42-point underdog also broke my database record for largest point spread upset, which seems significant.

This week promises to be just as fun. Week 2, though a little easier to project, still offers lots of uncertainty, with all but nine teams in the state having 48-minute sample sizes so far. There’s still a lot of variance both ways, which makes it very exciting…and also a little stressful for a projections guy. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

  • Manassas 2 at Byhalia (MS) 41
  • King’s Academy 13 at GPittman 41
  • Trezevant 33 at Hamilton 13
  • Chuckey-Doak 14 at Happy Valley 33
  • Sycamore 30 at Hunters Lane 13
  • Mitchell 29 at KIPP Collegiate 5
  • Lenoir City 21 at Loudon 29 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Sequoyah 5 at McMinn Co. 45
  • Middle College 23 at Memphis Business Academy 25
  • Cocke Co. 34 at Northview 20
  • Grainger 35 at Pigeon Forge 12
  • McNairy Central 39 at Tishomingo Co. (MS) 11
  • Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 18 at Westwood 25

Friday

  • Austin-East 8 at Alcoa 44
  • White Station 31 at Arlington 23
  • Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 6 at Bartlett 32
  • Chattanooga Christian 9 at Baylor 36
  • Henry Co. 22 at Beech 28
  • Ravenwood 30 at Blackman 22
  • East Ridge 21 at Bledsoe Co. 22
  • Freedom Prep Academy 41 at Bluff City 4
  • Kirby 39 at Bolivar Central 14
  • First Assembly Christian 29 at Bolton 17
  • Trinity Academy Tri-Cities 24 at Boyd-Buchanan 28
  • Howard Tech 24 at Brainerd 19
  • Wooddale 7 at Briarcrest Christian 37
  • Creek Wood 19 at Camden Central 27
  • Brentwood 33 at Cane Ridge 23
  • Warren Co. 30 at Cannon Co. 17
  • Campbell Co. 32 at Carter 15
  • Smyrna 23 at Centennial 30
  • Whites Creek 21.8 at Cheatham Co. Central 22.4
  • Independence 23 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 35
  • Hillcrest 0 at Christian Brothers 51
  • Clinton Co. (KY) 26 at Clay Co. 24
  • Hardin Valley 31 at Cleveland 19
  • CAK 28 at Clinton 25
  • South Greene 31 at Cloudland 21
  • Tullahoma 28 at Coffee Co. Central 14
  • Center Hill (MS) 16 at Collierville 24
  • Richland 25 at Collinwood 22
  • Moore Co. 20 at Community 31
  • Notre Dame 27 at Corbin (KY) 32
  • Bauxite (AR) 18 at Covington 35
  • Lake Co. 33 at Crockett Co. 22
  • White Co. 30 at Cumberland Co. 19
  • Thomas Walker (VA) 20 at Cumberland Gap 23
  • Greeneville 37 at Daniel Boone 23
  • Science Hill 21 at David Crockett 27 (7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV)
  • Columbia Central 24 at Dickson Co. 23
  • Oak Ridge 22 at Dobyns-Bennett 31
  • Webb Bell Buckle 13 at Donelson Christian Academy 32
  • Brighton 25 at Dyersburg 32
  • Cornersville 25 at Eagleville 26
  • Soddy Daisy 17 at East Hamilton 22
  • Fairview 42 at East Hickman Co. 10
  • Maplewood 16 at East Nashville 32
  • Hillsboro 18 at Ensworth 25
  • St. Benedict at Auburndale 7 at Evangelical Christian 40
  • Northeast 23 at F.J. Reitz (IN) 30
  • Douglass [Frederick] 13 at Fairley 37
  • Knoxville West 11 at Farragut 32
  • Battle Ground Academy 24 at Father Ryan 20
  • Northpoint Christian 18 at Fayette Ware 21
  • Portland 18 at Forrest 27
  • Riverdale 24 at Franklin 21
  • Stratford 18 at Franklin Road Academy 29
  • Middle Tennessee Christian 12 at Friendship Christian 41
  • Central 33 at Fulton 14
  • Gleason 34 at Fulton City (KY) 24
  • Station Camp 11 at Gallatin 36
  • Cordova 21 at Germantown 26
  • Hendersonville 33 at Giles Co. 25
  • Smith Co. 28 at Gordonsville 21
  • Mount Juliet Christian Academy 19 at Grace Baptist Academy 24
  • Clarksville Academy 41 at Grace Christian Academy 15
  • Northwest 32 at Greenbrier 24
  • Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 15 at Greenfield 30
  • South Pittsburg 46 at Grundy Co. 4
  • North Greene 19 at Hancock Co. 29
  • Adamsville 14 at Hardin Co. 28
  • Memphis Overton 18 at Harding Academy 35
  • Copper Basin 22 at Hayesville (NC) 23
  • Jackson North Side 15 at Haywood 39
  • Harpeth 19 at Hickman Co. 22
  • Perry Co. 6 at Houston Co. 38
  • Halls 34 at Humboldt 23
  • Byrns [Jo] 14 at Huntland 27
  • Southwind 27 at Independence (MS) 20
  • Chester Co. 19 at Jackson Christian 28
  • University School of Jackson 23 at Jackson South Side 18
  • Morristown East 17 at Jefferson Co. 33
  • Oakdale 22.3 at Jellico 21.9
  • Sullivan North 15 at Johnson Co. 31
  • Karns 17 at Knoxville Halls 43
  • Rossview 29 at LaVergne 20
  • Loretto 23 at Lawrence Co. 26
  • McGavock 18 at Lebanon 23
  • Riverside 22 at Lexington 13
  • Pope John Paul II 28 at Lipscomb Academy 17
  • Cookeville 25 at Livingston Academy 23
  • Monterey 23.7 at Lookout Valley 23.8
  • Fayette Academy 30 at Magnolia Heights (MS) 18
  • Lincoln Co. 13 at Marshall Co. 34
  • Bearden 4 at Maryville 40
  • Webb 3 at McCallie 40
  • Stewart Co. 23 at McEwen 29
  • Tellico Plains 28 at McMinn Central 21
  • Greenback 18 at Meigs Co. 33
  • Memphis East 10 at Melrose 33
  • Houston 24 at Memphis Central 23
  • Raleigh-Egypt 0 at Memphis University 51
  • Alcorn Central (MS) 26 at Middleton 35
  • Liberty Tech Magnet 11 at Milan 37
  • Munford 28 at Millington Central 22
  • Pearl-Cohn 23 at Montgomery Bell Academy 24
  • West Creek 16 at Montgomery Central 36
  • William Blount 24 at Morristown West 28
  • Goodpasture Christian 23 at Nashville Christian 28
  • Wilson Central 24 at Nashville Overton 15
  • Watertown 22 at Nolensville 29
  • Kingsbury 15 at Northside (MS) 35
  • Kenwood 0 at Oakland 53
  • Dyer Co. 34 at Obion Co. 17
  • Kingston 18 at Oliver Springs 24
  • York Institute 21 at Oneida 20
  • Red Bank 26 at Ooltewah 28
  • Siegel 15 at Page 34
  • Sheffield 0 at Peabody 51
  • Sunbright 24 at Pickett Co. 26
  • Silverdale Academy 22 at Polk Co. 21
  • Anderson Co. 23 at Powell 32
  • Hillwood 41 at RePublic 19
  • Tuscola (NC) 27 at Rhea Co. 20
  • Memphis Nighthawks 3 at Ripley 49
  • Franklin Co. 38 at Rockvale 8
  • Jackson Co. 26 at Sale Creek 18
  • Dresden 23 at Scotts Hill 25
  • Marion Co. 12 at Sequatchie Co. 36
  • Heritage 24 at Sevier Co. 31
  • Gibbs 23 at Seymour 20
  • Columbia Academy 16 at Shelbyville Central 32
  • Hixson 14 at Signal Mountain 33
  • Fulton Co. (KY) 32 at South Fulton 28
  • Grace Christian 16 at South-Doyle 37
  • Summit 35 at Spring Hill 9
  • Clarksville 31 at Springfield 25 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • Craigmont 18 at St. George’s 37
  • Antioch 0 at Stewarts Creek 48
  • Coalfield 22.1 at Stone Memorial 22.2
  • Cherokee 25 at Sullivan South 34
  • Rockwood 28 at Sweetwater 16
  • Rossville Christian Academy 5 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 44
  • South Gibson 25 at Trinity Christian Academy 24
  • Chattanooga Central 16 at Tyner Academy 34
  • Cosby 31 at Unaka 19
  • Hampton 19 at Unicoi Co. 28
  • King Prep 6 at Union City 45
  • Claiborne 20 at Union Co. 31
  • DeKalb Co. 3 at Upperman 43
  • Sullivan Central 24 at Volunteer 39
  • Bradley Central 37 at Walker Valley 14
  • Harriman 25.7 at Wartburg 25.9
  • Oakhaven 25 at Washington 14
  • Huntingdon 38 at Waverly Central 27
  • Summertown 21 at Wayne Co. 23
  • McKenzie 27 at West Carroll 21
  • Macon Co. 20 at Westmoreland 19
  • Gibson Co. 26 at Westview 28
  • Glencliff 9 at White House 42
  • East Robertson 22 at White House-Heritage 28
  • Ridgeway 10 at Whitehaven 42
  • Scott 23 at Whitley Co. (KY) 25
  • Fayetteville 27 at Zion Christian Academy 21

Saturday

  • Brentwood Academy 29 at Clearwater Academy International (FL) 22
  • Highlands (KY) 19 at Knox Catholic 34

This is one of the three or four best weeks of football all season; it looks like plenty of fun. Barring weather issues, 176 games will be played this week, bringing us to 355 total. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.

  1. Brentwood Academy at Clearwater Academy International (FL) (Saturday, 2:30 PM ET). This is the best team in the state of Tennessee traveling to play a Florida team that went 11-0 last year and outscored its opponents by 38 points per game. Clearwater starts seven different D-1 prospects, along with a few others on the fringe. I think BA is live-streaming the game, but I don’t know for certain. Anyway, it goes without saying that it would be a good thing for the best Tennessee team to defeat a top 15 Florida team.
  2. Pearl-Cohn at Montgomery Bell Academy (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Pearl-Cohn demolished what was expected to be a great Cane Ridge team; MBA, meanwhile, suffered a surprise loss at Brentwood. Starting 0-2 would be pretty shocking territory for MBA to be in these days, no?
  3. Ravenwood at Blackman (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Blackman started off well against Alcoa, leading 14-3 right before halftime. Unfortunately for the Blaze, most play the other 24 minutes of football games, where Alcoa went on a 20-0 run to grab a huge road win. Ravenwood smoked an overmatched Centennial team, and this is their first real test with a team many believe to be a top three contender for the 6A title. Both teams badly need this win.
  4. Houston at Memphis Central (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Houston took on a Southaven team they’ve normally had issues with and simply blew them out from start to finish. Central, on the other hand, suffered a brutal 13-12 loss to Cordova. Last week, I wrote that Houston really needed to win at least one of its first two; now, they’re in a position to sweep a tough two-week opening slate.
  5. Battle Ground Academy at Father Ryan (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Both enter at 1-0, with Father Ryan picking up an impressive win at Bowling Green last Saturday. This isn’t a Region game, but a II-AA win over a II-AAA team is always useful for bragging rights.

Honorable Mentions: Hillsboro at Ensworth (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cordova at Germantown (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Anderson Co. at Powell (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Highlands (KY) vs. Knoxville Catholic (Saturday, 5:30 PM ET); Riverdale at Franklin (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Brentwood at Cane Ridge (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Knoxville West at Farragut (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

If you’d like to view it, here’s this week’s spreadsheet. The season-long sheet is linked here.

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

2019 Tennessee high school football projections, Week 1

It’s here! Tennessee high school football is back for another season, as am I. You’re reading this on a new site, obviously. For the last two years, I’ve done these projections at an older personal site. Now, they will be transferred to this more professional site for my work in statistics and analytics.

A refresher, which I already put out in the season preview: The System™ produced excellent results in 2018 with a smaller, East Tennessee-only sample size in the regular season: a 279-54 (83.8%) likelihood of correctly calling the outcome of a game, well above the expected mark of ~77%. In the Tennessee state playoffs, which included all teams from Tennessee, not just those in my personal region, the ratings correctly predicted 177 of 221 games (80.1%), slightly above that same expected mark. On the whole, The System™ went 456-98 (82.3%) and correctly predicted the winner in 24 of 27 state semifinal/championship games. (Quick note: no, I don’t actually call it The System™.)

This year, there is an obvious difference: I’m including all 342 teams in regional play from the state of Tennessee. Every community from Memphis to Mountain City to Copperhill to Tiptonville will be covered, and I can’t wait to see how it unfolds. Obviously, this means a gigantic jump in sample size. Last year’s regular season projections relied upon a 333-game sample; this year’s will feature around 1,771, barring forfeits. Increasing the sample size by more than five-fold should give us even more reliability in how these projections turn out by year’s end, hopefully.

With all that said, you didn’t come here to read lots of precursory words on what I do. You came here for football projections. Four quick notes:

1. The projected scores are rounded to the nearest whole number. In events where the projected margin is under one point, they are rounded to the nearest tenth, then hundredth of a number if necessary.

2. Unlike the last two years where the winning team is listed first, I’ve listed the road and home teams with their projected score next to their names. It doesn’t look quite as pretty, I guess, but it makes more sense. Out-of-state teams have the appropriate state tag in parentheses.

3. Until regional play begins, the games are ordered alphabetically by the home team’s name. 

4. In the previous two years I’ve done this, Week One has been the least-successful projecting week by a significant distance. Take these projections with a grain of salt, because, like all preseason projections, they’re heavily based on what your team has done recently. The last two years, the system has called around 85% of winners from Week 5 onward.

Alright! Here’s the games. One last note: if they’re on TV, the relevant station and start time is in parentheses. For online broadcasts, it’s a guessing game, but a healthy amount of Knoxville-area games are on Diamond Clear Media, a few scattered games are on the NFHS Network, TNHighSchoolFootball.com is covering Lebanon-Gallatin, and there’s probably other sites I’m unfamiliar with. All East Tennessee games are at 7:30 PM ET unless listed otherwise; same for West and Middle Tennessee at 7 PM CT.

As one final reminder, you can view the preseason win projections here.

Wednesday

  • Whitwell 33 at East Ridge 16

(For those who don’t know, Whitwell has to play two games in Week 1 because the previous head coach made a bizarre scheduling error. You’ll see them again in this article under Saturday.)

Thursday

  • Harpeth 16 at Byrns [Jo] 23
  • Upperman 27 at Cookeville 23
  • Kingsbury 21 at Craigmont 29
  • Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 11 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 24
  • Wooddale 32 at Memphis Business Academy 14
  • Melrose 23 at Memphis Overton 21
  • Milan 17 at Peabody 34
  • Greeneville 37 at Powell 17 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT)
  • Rogers (AL) 34 at Richland 15
  • Tullahoma 21 at Shelbyville Central 25

Friday

  • Nolensville 36 at Antioch 10
  • Halls 8 at Arlington 47
  • Douglass [Frederick] 14 at Bartlett 34
  • Adamsville 14 at Biggersville (MS) 31
  • White Station 45 at Bolton 3
  • North Georgia (GA) 17 at Boyd-Buchanan 36
  • Farragut 32 at Bradley Central 16
  • Montgomery Bell Academy 29 at Brentwood 15
  • Raleigh-Egypt 21 at Brighton 27
  • Volunteer 21 at CAK 38
  • Waverly Central 32 at Camden Central 25
  • Cocke Co. 26 at Campbell Co. 35
  • Moore Co. 31 at Cascade 18
  • Cleveland 13 at Knoxville Central 37
  • McCallie 42 at Chattanooga Christian 1
  • Union Co. 28 at Cherokee 30
  • Fayette Ware 14 at Chester Co. 29
  • Bob Jones (AL) 24 at Christian Brothers 20
  • Pigeon Forge 24 at Claiborne 23
  • Rossview 23 at Clarksville 27
  • RePublic 15 at Clarksville Academy 36
  • Monroe Co. (KY) 28 at Clay Co. 24
  • Anderson Co. 42 at Clinton 16
  • Wartburg 14 at Coalfield 35
  • Southwind 18 at Collierville 26
  • Middleton 18 at Collinwood 38
  • Marshall Co. 21 at Columbia Academy 22
  • Spring Hill 21 at Columbia Central 28
  • Polk Co. 35 at Copper Basin 13
  • Community 4 at Cornersville 46
  • Hancock Co. 21 at Cosby 25
  • Dickson Co. 19 at Creek Wood 23 (7:30 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • Ooltewah 21 at David Crockett 30
  • Franklin Road Academy 26 at Davidson Academy 34
  • Tennessee 21 at Dobyns-Bennett 31 (7:30 PM ET, WCYB-TV CW affiliate)
  • Crockett Co. 29 at Dyer Co. 22
  • King Prep 3 at Dyersburg 54
  • Perry Co. 23 at East Hickman Co. 27
  • Forrest 26 at East Robertson 21
  • Portland 23.4 at Edmonson Co. (KY) 22.6
  • Trezevant 0 at Ensworth 42
  • Christ Presbyterian Academy 33 at Evangelical Christian 19
  • Manassas 5 at Fairley 40 (played at Freeman)
  • Page 24.9 at Fairview 25.1
  • Harding Academy 23 at Fayette Academy 34
  • Marion Co. 31 at Fayetteville 15
  • Jackson Christian 14 at First Assembly Christian 31
  • Brentwood Academy 37 at Florence (AL) 8
  • Coffee Co. Central 17 at Franklin Co. 30
  • Bolivar Central 27 at Freedom Prep Academy 24
  • Trousdale Co. 25 at Friendship Christian 22
  • Greenfield 44 at Fulton City (KY) 6
  • Gleason 15 at Fulton Co. (KY) 46
  • Lebanon 24 at Gallatin 21
  • KIPP Collegiate 0 at Germantown 51
  • Knoxville Halls 23 at Gibbs 25
  • Obion Co. 26 at Gibson Co. 20
  • Lipscomb Academy 44 at Glencliff 1
  • Mount Juliet Christian Academy 22 at Goodpasture Christian 29
  • Hampton 15 at Gatlinburg-Pittman 30
  • Cumberland Gap 11 at Grainger 33
  • Loudon 12 at Greenback 40
  • Bluff City 29 at H.W. Byers (MS) 17
  • Cloudland 20 at Happy Valley 24
  • Henry Co. 30 at Haywood 22
  • Oakland 42 at Hendersonville 7
  • Lenoir City 32 at Heritage 24
  • Cheatham Co. Central 27 at Hillwood 28
  • West Carroll 29 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 17
  • Southaven (MS) 24 at Houston 23
  • Stratford 28 at Howard Tech 17
  • Memphis East 28.2 at Humboldt 27.5
  • Eagleville 31 at Huntland 21
  • York Institute 41 at Jackson Co. 4
  • Beech 33 at Jackson North Side 18
  • Sevier Co. 20 at Jefferson Co. 28
  • Williamsburg (KY) 61 at Jellico 0
  • Sullivan East 16 at Johnson Co. 33
  • Walker Valley 29 at Karns 33
  • Hopkinsville (KY) 25 at Kenwood 9
  • Harriman 19 at Kingston 24
  • Hillcrest 2 at Kirby 47
  • Chuckey-Doak 0 at Knox Catholic 61
  • Union City 24 at Lake Co. 29
  • Rockvale 22 at LaVergne 28
  • Hickman Co. 21.2 at Lawrence Co. 21.1
  • Riverside 23.2 at Lewis Co. 23.1
  • Millington Central 17 at Liberty Tech Magnet 27
  • Giles Co. 28 at Lincoln Co. 32
  • Westmoreland 17 at Livingston Academy 25
  • Grace Baptist Academy 25 at Lookout Valley 20
  • Wayne Co. 26 at Loretto 27
  • Smith Co. 23 at Macon Co. 24
  • Briarcrest Christian 26.1 at Madison Academy (AL) 26
  • Lausanne Collegiate 29 at Mayfield (KY) 33
  • Houston Co. 27 at McEwen 19
  • Battle Ground Academy 34 at McGavock 11
  • Huntingdon 39 at McKenzie 18
  • McMinn Co. 44 at McMinn Central 3
  • Hardin Co. 21 at McNairy Central 27
  • Cordova 20 at Memphis Central 24
  • Sheffield 26 at Memphis Nighthawks 18
  • Ridgeway 8 at Memphis University 40
  • White House-Heritage 18 at Middle Tennessee Christian 34
  • Sale Creek 12 at Monterey 36
  • Sycamore 11 at Montgomery Central 32
  • Morristown East 18 at Morristown West 35
  • Summertown 14 at Mount Pleasant 28
  • Covington 33 at Munford 19
  • Unaka 26.2 at North Greene 26.4
  • Falkner (MS) 16 at Northpoint Christian 40
  • Hunters Lane 7 at Northwest 42
  • Chattanooga Central 17 at Notre Dame 39
  • Hardin Valley 18 at Oak Ridge 31
  • Whites Creek 23 at Oakhaven 18
  • Oliver Springs 19 at Oneida 20
  • Oakdale 20 at Pickett Co. 25
  • Nashville Overton 11 at Pope John Paul II 33
  • Tipton-Rosemark Academy 37 at Potts Camp (MS) 14
  • Centennial 13 at Ravenwood 45
  • Carter 15 at Rhea Co. 27
  • Jackson South Side 28 at Ripley 19
  • Northeast 23 at Riverdale 28
  • Midway 13 at Rockwood 28
  • Middle College 33 at Rossville Christian Academy 17
  • Elizabethton 21 at Science Hill 33
  • Cumberland Co. 10 at Scott 33
  • Walnut (MS) 22 at Scotts Hill 25
  • Tellico Plains 21 at Sequoyah 32
  • King’s Academy 18 at Seymour 33
  • Franklin 27 at Siegel 18
  • East Hamilton 17 at Signal Mountain 21
  • Donelson Christian Academy 14 at Silverdale Academy 30
  • East Nashville 25 at Smyrna 22
  • Red Bank 27 at Soddy Daisy 23
  • Lexington 15 at South Gibson 25
  • Senatobia (MS) 35 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 13
  • Trinity Christian Academy 21 at St. George’s 32
  • South Fulton 27.8 at Stewart Co. 28.1
  • Mount Juliet 40 at Stewarts Creek 8
  • Grace Christian (Knoxville) 24 at Stone Memorial 27
  • Sullivan North 26.8 at Sullivan Central 26.6
  • Daniel Boone 33 at Sullivan South 25
  • Independence 30 at Summit 22
  • Red Boiling Springs 18 at Sunbright 32
  • Meigs Co. 43 at Sweetwater 8
  • South Greene 23 at Unicoi Co. 30
  • DeKalb Co. 24 at Warren Co. 22
  • Gordonsville 13 at Watertown 38
  • Austin-East 26 at Webb 23
  • Greenbrier 30 at West Creek 28
  • Northview 29 at West Greene 16
  • Dresden 31 at Westview 29
  • Cannon Co. 29 at White Co. 21
  • Station Camp 26 at White House 20
  • Maryville 46 at William Blount 3
  • Springfield 26 at Wilson Central 22
  • Grace Christian Academy (Franklin) 26 at Zion Christian Academy 31

Saturday

  • Alcoa 24 at Blackman 27 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Whitwell 37 at Bledsoe Co. 9
  • Baylor 39 at Brainerd 4
  • Bowling Green (KY) 21 at Father Ryan 24 (8:00 PM CT)
  • South-Doyle 18 at Fulton 33
  • Maplewood 21 at Hillsboro 27 (3:00 PM CT)
  • Bearden 25 at Knoxville West 16
  • Westwood 8 at Mitchell 31 (3:00 PM CT; played at Whitehaven)
  • Cane Ridge 32 at Pearl-Cohn 27 (5:30 PM CT)
  • Sequatchie Co. 18 at South Pittsburg 30
  • Hamilton 0 at Whitehaven 66

180 games in all! If I’ve missed one, please email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best ones, from my perspective:

  1. Alcoa at Blackman (Saturday, 7 PM ET). It’s one thing to have two of the ten best programs in the state match up; it’s even better when Alcoa is coming off of their best season in a decade and Blackman is expected to be a serious 6A contender.
  2. Southaven (MS) at Houston (Friday, 7 PM CT). Houston starts the year off with a brutal back-to-back of Southaven and Memphis Central; they really need a split of these to maintain state-wide relevance. Plus, while Southaven is a good team, they went 4-7 last year and lost to Germantown and Cordova by a combined 37 points.
  3. Lausanne at Mayfield (KY) (Friday, 7 PM CT). As for just about any out-of-state game, it’s not a true must-win game. However: it would be really painful for Lausanne fans to lose two straight games after a 38-game win streak. Mayfield is very, very good.
  4. Cane Ridge at Pearl-Cohn (Saturday, 5:30 PM CT). Surprisingly, these two have only played twice before, with Cane Ridge taking both games. This one is projected to be fairly high-scoring, and while it’s not a region game for either, both could really use a huge win to start the year.
  5. Page at Fairview (Friday, 7 PM CT). This has one of the lowest-projected spreads of the season (Fairview is favored by 0.2 points) and has a lot at stake. As mentioned in the preview, this is the only game Page is an underdog in all season; while they’d have to win around 3-4 more coin flip games to go undefeated (not likely, but certainly possible), the 10-0 opportunity starts here. For Fairview, it’s just as big: this is one of two games projected within double digits for them all season. Win this and the Waverly Central game in Week 4, and it could be their second 10-0 season in school history.

If you’d like to view it, here’s this week’s spreadsheet. The season-long sheet is linked here.

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

2019 Tennessee high school football preseason projections

Hello, and welcome to the new hosting site for my Tennessee High School Football Preseason Projections! Returning for my third season, The System™ produced excellent results in 2018 with a smaller, East Tennessee-only sample size in the regular season: a 279-54 (83.8%) likelihood of correctly calling the outcome of a game, well above the expected mark of ~77%. In the Tennessee state playoffs, which included all teams from Tennessee, not just those in my personal region, the ratings correctly predicted 177 of 221 games (80.1%), slightly above that same expected mark. On the whole, The System™ went 456-98 (82.3%) and correctly predicted the winner in 24 of 27 state semifinal/championship games. It was a good season; now comes the challenge of somehow topping that.

Even if that doesn’t happen and these projections regress to a mean of 77-78%, this still means they’re correctly projecting nearly four out of every five games played weekly in Tennessee. Considering Cal Preps/Max Preps’ ratings alone correctly projected 84% of winners over the last four regular season weeks + playoff action in 2018, the rate of correct projections could reasonably stay stable or even slightly rise. (Quick nerd note: anything above 75% correct is considered good; 80% or higher and you’re doing very well. 85%+ and I get hired by STATS LLC or something.)

Anyway, that’s too much precursory writing. If you clicked on this, you came for what the headline promises: statewide Tennessee high school football projections. For the first time since I’ve been doing this, all teams in the state of Tennessee are receiving full projections, not just East Tennessee. This covers 342 teams in region play in the state of Tennessee. While this does exclude a few non-region programs, this still gathers every program that can potentially play in the TSSAA playoffs this November/December.

In the below sheet, you’ll get the following to start with: a full sheet of projected records, win totals, and region records for all 342 teams, plus individualized team sheets. The team sheets feature schedule data and projections for each game. Throughout the season, these will be updated weekly and will still be available for viewing. Below are the official 2019 Preseason Win Projections for Tennessee High School Football, sorted by Class and Region:

Here’s the big, giant sheet, which is linked here as a finalized published version. At that link, you can access all 342 individual team sheets, with full game-by-game projections and season-long win totals. These will be updated weekly, even while I’m on a honeymoon in early October. (Don’t tell my fiance about that part.) While you can access season-long win projections on Massey Ratings (and, to some extent, Cal Preps), this is the first Tennessee-exclusive high school football analytics sheet that has existed, as far as I know.

After Week 1, all preseason projections will be frozen and available for viewing throughout the season on the 2019 Preseason Win Totals tab. They won’t change, but they’ll still be used on the 2019 Running Win Totals tab, which will be made available after Week 1. On that tab, you can keep track of how your team is overperforming or underperforming their preseason projections. It’s very nerdy, but also very useful to see (hypothetically) who’s coaching a team up well beyond their expectations.

As a reminder, here are the main features of the projection system:

  • Team ratings from diverse statistical sources. This year’s sources are Cal Preps/Max Preps, Massey Ratings, and Sonny Moore’s power ratings. All three use different methods to achieve their final rating, and all three are worthy, useful tools. The current plan is that, after this season, we should be closer to achieving a Stats By Will rating as well. To start the season, the ratings are weighted towards the more reactive Cal Preps system, as Massey and Sonny Moore are more retrodictive and use last year’s numbers heavily to start a season.
  • A small boost for home field advantage. Per a recent study, the average home team win rate in high school football is around 57%, which converts to almost exactly 2.5 points. Because there’s no objective way to measure home field advantage across high schools otherwise, this is the best we’ve got. So: if you’re at home, your projected margin is aided by 2.5 points.
  • A normal distribution system for win likelihood, similar to Bill Connelly’s S&P+. The official equation, if you use Excel, is NORMDIST((relevant cell), 0, 17, True). 17 is an unusually conservative deviation number, but because of the elevated level of variance in high school football, it’s necessary. That’s why even the best teams in the metrics don’t have a 99% chance of going undefeated.

Added features for 2019:

  • Project-A-Game. Nothing new to loyal followers, but this is my Single Game Projection Tool, now available for full season usage. You can project any game your heart desires at any location your heart desires.
  • Game Score Adjustments. This is a tool that takes a game’s Power Score (basically, the combined ratings of the two teams) and adjusts it for how close or how not-close a game is expected to be. If a game is projected within ~2.5 points – the margin of home field advantage – it can get as large as a 30-point boost. If a game is projected to be a 30+ point destruction…well, it can receive a 30-point demerit. This is also a useful way of getting 1A, 2A, etc. games higher in the weekly rankings, as those teams won’t rank as highly in statewide rating systems.

This should cover everything, at least prior to the week-by-week preview posts. If you have any questions, comments, corrections, etc., please email statsbywill@gmail.com.

On the next pages, you can find the following: