2019 Tennessee high school football Round of 16 projections

The second round has arrived! Last week, these projections went 91-17 (84.3%), an excellent start. That brings these projections to 1509-364 (80.6%) on the full season, which, again, is a little above what I’d hoped for. Not bad.

This week on Twitter, I posted the updated TSSAA playoff odds, which, as far as I know, aren’t affected by the latest Powell allegations. In order, the current BlueCross Bowl game projections are listed by class. The favorites come first, then the runner-ups, with each team’s most recent title in parentheses:

• 1A: South Pittsburg (2010) over Huntingdon (2003)
• 2A: Peabody (2018) over Meigs Co. (never; made final in 1980, 1995)
• 3A: Alcoa (2018) over Pearl-Cohn (1997)
• 4A: Elizabethton (1938) over Haywood (never; made final in 1994, 1995, 2018)
• 5A: Powell (never; made final in 1991, 2011) over Henry Co. (2013)
• 6A: Maryville (2017) over Ravenwood (2015)
• II-A: Nashville Christian (2015) over Davidson Academy (2018)
• II-AA: Evangelical Christian (2005) over Christ Presbyterian Academy (2018)
• II-AAA: McCallie (2001) over Baylor (1973)

If you have a complaint about these, please post them on the CoachT message boards, because I enjoy the grammar.

The games! Every game, unless I’m told otherwise, starts at 7 PM local time. Some games may be on TV; as best as I can, I’ve tried to reflect that. Otherwise, the projection provides all the information you really need. At the tail end of the post, there will be some additional analysis of each class. What games have the most at stake? What’s the highest-quality matchup out there? First, here’s the predictions.

 1A

• (R2 #2) Oliver Springs 29 at (R1 #1) Cloudland 15
• (R2 #3) Coalfield 16 at (R2 #1) Greenback 34
• (R3 #4) Whitwell 22 at (R4 #3) Gordonsville 28
• (R4 #2) Clay Co. 7 at (R3 #1) South Pittsburg 40
• (R5 #2) Cornersville 9 at (R6 #1) Huntingdon 43
• (R6 #2) McEwen 24 at (R5 #1) Huntland 21
• (R7 #2) West Carroll 21 at (R8 #1) Middle College 33
• (R8 #2) Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 8 at (R7 #1) Lake Co. 49

2A

• (R2 #2) Oneida 19 at (R1 #1) Hampton 25
• (R1 #2) South Greene 14 at (R2 #1) Meigs Co. 33
• (R4 #2) Trousdale Co. 25 at (R3 #1) Tyner Academy 24
• (R3 #2) Bledsoe Co. 13 at (R4 #1) Watertown 31
• (R6 #3) Riverside 16 at (R6 #1) Waverly Central 24
• (R5 #3) Eagleville 14 at (R5 #1) Forrest 29
• (R7 #2) Union City 21 at (R8 #1) Fairley 33
• (R7 #3) McKenzie 9 at (R7 #1) Peabody 39

3A

• (R2 #3) GPittman 10 at (R2 #1) Alcoa 40
• (R2 #4) Kingston 16 at (R2 #2) Austin-East 32
• (R4 #2) Smith Co. 11 at (R3 #1) Loudon 38
• (R3 #2) Red Bank 20 at (R4 #1) Upperman 21
• (R5 #4) Giles Co. 20 at (R5 #2) Stratford 25
• (R5 #3) East Nashville 11 at (R5 #1) Pearl-Cohn 32
• (R7 #3) Covington 24 at (R7 #1) South Gibson 23
• (R7 #2) Milan 22 at (R8 #1) Wooddale 25

4A

• (R1 #2) Greeneville 30 at (R2 #1) Anderson Co. 26 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
• (R1 #3) Sullivan South 12 at (R1 #1) Elizabethton 35
• (R3 #2) DeKalb Co. 14 at (R4 #1) Marshall Co. 33
• (R4 #2) Nolensville 17 at (R3 #1) Livingston Academy 26
• (R5 #2) Creek Wood 16 at (R6 #1) Hardin Co. 29
• (R6 #2) Lexington 21 at (R5 #1) Springfield 23
• (R7 #3) Ripley 13 at (R7 #1) Haywood 38
• (R7 #2) Crockett Co. 29 at (R8 #1) Millington Central 19

5A

• (R1 #2) Daniel Boone 17 at (R2 #1) South-Doyle 32
• (R2 #4) Gibbs 25 at (R2 #2) Central 29
• (R3 #4) Oak Ridge 14 at (R3 #2) Knoxville West 33
• (R4 #2) Rhea Co. 13 at (R3 #1) Powell 35 
• (R5 #2) Shelbyville Central 25 at (R6 #1) Beech 24 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
• (R5 #3) Summit 22 at (R5 #1) Page 24
• (R7 #3) Clarksville 14 at (R7 #1) Henry Co. 34
• (R7 #2) Dyer Co. 32 at (R8 #1) Southwind 27

6A

• (R1 #2) Farragut 14 at (R2 #1) Maryville 37
• (R1 #3) Bearden 16 at (R1 #1) Dobyns-Bennett 33
• (R3 #2) Blackman 25 at (R4 #1) Hendersonville 24
• (R4 #2) Mount Juliet 13 at (R3 #1) Oakland 41
• (R6 #2) Ravenwood 31 at (R5 #1) Cane Ridge 20
• (R6 #3) Independence 17 at (R6 #1) Brentwood 27
• (R8 #2) White Station 17 at (R7 #1) Houston 33
• (R8 #3) Memphis Central 7 at (R8 #1) Whitehaven 29

II-A

• (E #3) Donelson Christian Academy 14 at (W #2) Davidson Academy 29
• (W #5) Fayette Academy 17 at (W #1) Nashville Christian 37
• (W #3) University School of Jackson 33 at (E #2) King’s Academy 21
• (W #4) Columbia Academy 20 at (E #1) Friendship Christian 29

II-AA

• (W #2) Lausanne Collegiate 20 at (M #2) Franklin Road Academy 31
• (M #4) Lipscomb Academy 23 at (E #1) Grace Christian 25
• (E #2) Chattanooga Christian 19 at (M #1) Christ Presbyterian Academy 27
• (M #3) Battle Ground Academy 17 at (W #1) Evangelical Christian 29

II-AAA

• (W #4) Christian Brothers 16 at (E #1) McCallie 34
• (E #3) Ensworth 25 at (W #2) Briarcrest Christian 24
• (E #4) Knox Catholic 22 at (W #1) Memphis University 31
• (W #3) Montgomery Bell Academy 14 at (E #2) Baylor 24

Below are the best games by class, per my Game Score metric, along with how each team ranks in my Class Ratings. The parentheses is their region and seed; the number directly to the left of the team name is how they rank in their given class.

• 1A: (R6 #2) #8 McEwen at (R5 #1) #9 Huntland
• 2A: (R4 #2) #3 Trousdale Co. at (R3 #1) #5 Tyner Academy
• 3A: (R7 #3) #4 Covington at (R7 #1) #7 South Gibson
• 4A: (R1 #2) #1 Greeneville at (R2 #1) #3 Anderson Co.
• 5A: (R5 #2) #4 Shelbyville Central at (R6 #1) #6 Beech
• 6A: (R3 #2) #11 Blackman at (R4 #1) #14 Hendersonville
• II-A: (W #4) #5 Columbia Academy at (E #1) #4 Friendship Christian
• II-AA: (M #4) #5 Lipscomb Academy at (E #1) #6 Grace Christian
• II-AAA: (E #3) #3 Ensworth at (W #2) #6 Briarcrest Christian

Various notes:

• There’s a decent chance a title favorite loses. I have the nine favorites as collectively possessing a 40% chance of coming out of the second round unscathed. In order, the most likely upsets: Battle Ground Academy over Evangelical Christian (23.7% chance of happening), Christian Brothers over McCallie (14%), Fayette Academy over Nashville Christian (11.8%). As a bonus, the most likely public school upset: Rhea Co. over Powell (10%).
• Also, plenty of other upsets! Favorites are expected to go 45.5-14.5 this week. In less silly terms: they’ll win about 75.9% of their games. You can expect 14-15 upsets, which would be 2-3 less than happened last week despite 48 fewer games. These games are much better.
• Most vulnerable 10%+ championship contenders in each class:
  • 1A: South Pittsburg (2.5% chance of losing to Clay Co.)
  • 2A: Meigs Co. (13.7% chance of losing to South Greene)
  • 3A: Pearl-Cohn (10.6% chance of losing to East Nashville)
  • 4A: Greeneville (40.1% chance of losing to Anderson Co.)
  • 5A: South-Doyle (17.5% chance of losing to Daniel Boone)
  • 6A: Ravenwood (26.8% chance of losing to Cane Ridge)
  • II-A: Friendship Christian (30.5% chance of losing to Columbia Academy)
  • II-AA: Christ Presbyterian (30.6% chance of losing to Chattanooga Christian)
  • II-AAA: Ensworth (47.7% chance of losing to Briarcrest Christian)

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!