2020 Tennessee high school football championship predictions

December 3, 2020 by Will Warren, posted in High School Football Projections

Hello all! Thanks for checking out these championship week projections. Last week’s semifinals projections went 9-3 (75%), a bit better than what I’d anticipated. That brings the playoff record to 151-29 (83.9%), meaning as long as these picks go 2-7 or better, it’ll set a new record for this projection system. I think that’s pretty remarkable, considering this was a pandemic season with fewer games played than any other year in modern history and a less-stable base to work with.

Up top, while I haven’t written nearly as much about high school athletics in Tennessee this year, a hearty congratulations to the athletes participating in this week’s BlueCross Bowls. This has been the strangest year of my lifetime, and you’ve held it together both in the classroom and on the football field. Well done!

Below are the game projections. As I’ve said in the past, I don’t do game-by-game analysis anymore; smarter, better people than I get paid to do that, and they are called names like Tom Kreager and Khari Thompson and Jesse Smithey.

II-A

Game Time: 12 PM Eastern, Thursday, December 3, 2020

Championship odds: Davidson Academy 74.3%, University School of Jackson 25.7%

Have they played this season? Yes; Davidson Academy won, 31-9.

Projection: (W #2) University School of Jackson 17 vs. (W #1) Davidson Academy 28

II-AA

Game Time: 4 PM Eastern, Thursday, December 3, 2020

Championship odds: Christ Presbyterian Academy 52.6%, Lipscomb Academy 47.4%

Have they played this season? Yes; Lipscomb Academy won, 20-14.

Projection: (M #2) Christ Presbyterian Academy 24 vs. (M #1) Lipscomb Academy 23

II-AAA

Game Time: 8 PM Eastern, Thursday, December 3, 2020

Championship odds: McCallie 56.1%, Memphis University 43.9%

Have they played this season? No.

Projection: (W #3) Memphis University 24 vs. (E #3) McCallie 27

1A

Game Time: 12 PM Eastern, Friday, December 4, 2020

Championship odds: South Pittsburg 82.3%, Fayetteville 17.7%

Have they played this season? No.

Projection: (R3 #1) South Pittsburg 35 vs. (R5 #1) Fayetteville 19

3A

Game Time: 4 PM Eastern, Friday, December 4, 2020

Championship odds: Alcoa 72.9%, Milan 27.1%

Have they played this season? No.

Projection: (R2 #1) Alcoa 29 vs. (R7 #1) Milan 18

5A

Game Time: 8 PM Eastern, Friday, December 4, 2020

Championship odds: Summit 52.6%, Oak Ridge 47.4%

Have they played this season? No.

Projection: (R3 #2) Oak Ridge 24 vs. (R5 #1) Summit 25

2A

Game Time: 12 PM Eastern, Saturday, December 5, 2020

Championship odds: Peabody 69.5%, Meigs Co. 30.5%

Have they played this season? No.

Projection: (R2 #1) Meigs Co. 21 vs. (R7 #1) Peabody 30

4A

Game Time: 4 PM Eastern, Saturday, December 5, 2020

Championship odds: Elizabethton 75.1%, Haywood 24.9%

Have they played this season? No.

Projection: (R1 #1) Elizabethton 34 vs. (R7 #1) Haywood 22

6A

Game Time: 8 PM Eastern, Saturday, December 5, 2020

Championship odds: Oakland 74.3%, Brentwood 25.7%

Have they played this season? Yes; Oakland won, 37-0.

Projection: (R3 #1) Oakland 32 vs. (R6 #1) Brentwood 21

Best of luck to all teams and fans involved this weekend, and congrats on making it through this season.

2020 Tennessee high school football playoff projections, Semifinals edition

November 27, 2020 by Will Warren, posted in High School Football Projections

Happy Thanksgiving! Hope you’ve all had a great one. Last week’s picks went 22-8 (73.3%), with a couple of serious shockers happening. (Oak Ridge beating Knoxville West and Tullahoma losing to Nolensville were the main two.) The playoff picks are now 142-26 (84.5%) overall. Here’s this week’s games, with championship games to come next week.

1A

Remaining championship odds: South Pittsburg 77.6%, Fayetteville 12.2%, Lake Co. 6.9%, Coalfield 3.3%

Most likely title game: South Pittsburg vs. Fayetteville (50.7% odds of happening)

(R2 #1) Coalfield 15 at (R3 #1) South Pittsburg 39
(R5 #1) Fayetteville 30 at (R7 #2) Lake Co. 27

2A

Remaining championship odds: Peabody 70.8%, Meigs Co. 15.6%, Trousdale Co. 12.6%, Waverly Central 0.9%

Most likely title game: Peabody vs. Meigs Co. (48.3% odds of happening)

(R2 #1) Meigs Co. 23.2 at (R4 #2) Trousdale Co. 22.9
(R6 #1) Waverly Central 11 at (R7 #1) Peabody 40

3A

Remaining championship odds: Alcoa 52.2%, Pearl-Cohn 24%, Milan 14.7%, Red Bank 9.1%

Most likely title game: Alcoa vs. Pearl-Cohn (42% odds of happening)

(R2 #1) Alcoa 29 at (R3 #1) Red Bank 17
(R5 #1) Pearl-Cohn 25 at (R7 #1) Milan 22

4A

Remaining championship odds: Elizabethton 45.5%, Nolensville 19.2%, Lexington 19.1%, Haywood 16.2%

Most likely title game: Elizabethton vs. Lexington (32% odds of happening)

(R1 #1) Elizabethton 27 at (R4 #2) Nolensville 21
(R6 #1) Lexington 27.0 at (R7 #1) Haywood 26.9

5A

Remaining championship odds: Oak Ridge 36.3%, Summit 25.5%, Henry Co. 24%, South-Doyle 14.2%

Most likely title game: Oak Ridge vs. Henry Co. (34% odds of happening)

(R2 #2) South-Doyle 22 at (R3 #2) Oak Ridge 29
(R5 #1) Summit 24 at (R7 #1) Henry Co. 25

6A

Remaining championship odds: Oakland 38.8%, Maryville 32.9%, Brentwood 16%, Bartlett 12.3%

Most likely title game: Oakland vs. Brentwood (27.9% odds of happening)

(R2 #1) Maryville 29 at (R3 #1) Oakland 31
(R6 #1) Brentwood 22.2 at (R7 #3) Bartlett 21.6

2020 Tennessee high school football playoff projections, Quarterfinals edition

November 20, 2020 by Will Warren, posted in High School Football Projections

Last week’s picks went 48-8 (85.7%), which is pretty good for a system that literally took the system off. That brings these picks to 120-18 (87%) through two rounds. Regression will come eventually, but I am very pleased with how these have done so far. Again, not doing analysis this year; it’s just the picks and the numbers.

1A

Favorites (30% or greater to win title): South Pittsburg (50.3%)

Second-tier contenders (15% or greater to win title): Moore Co. (15.5%), Gordonsville (15.2%)

Darkhorses (5% or greater to win title): Fayetteville (10%), Lake Co. (5%)

Most likely championship game: South Pittsburg vs. Moore Co. (24.6% odds of happening)

(R2 #2) Oliver Springs 17 at (R2 #1) Coalfield 27
(R3 #1) South Pittsburg 32 at (R4 #1) Gordonsville 24
(R5 #2) Moore Co. 23 at (R5 #1) Fayetteville 22
(R7 #3) West Carroll 26 at (R7 #2) Lake Co. 35

2A

Favorites: Peabody (64.7%)

Second-tier contenders: Watertown (16.8%)

Darkhorses: Meigs Co. (9.6%), Trousdale Co. (5.2%)

Most likely championship game: Peabody vs. Watertown (39.7% odds of happening)

(R1 #1) South Greene 18 at (R2 #1) Meigs Co. 32
(R4 #2) Trousdale Co. 19 at (R4 #1) Watertown 27
(R6 #2) Riverside 19 at (R6 #1) Waverly Central 23
(R7 #2) McKenzie 13 at (R7 #1) Peabody 37

3A

Favorites: Alcoa (48.2%), Pearl-Cohn (33.1%)

Second-tier contenders: none

Darkhorses: Milan (9%), Red Bank (6.8%)

Most likely championship game: Alcoa vs. Pearl-Cohn (48.9% odds of happening)

(R2 #2) GPittman 10 at (R2 #1) Alcoa 41
(R3 #2) Loudon 19 at (R3 #1) Red Bank 29
(R5 #1) Pearl-Cohn 40 at (R6 #1) Stewart Co. 5
(R7 #2) South Gibson 20 at (R7 #1) Milan 29

4A

Favorites: Tullahoma (45.9%)

Second-tier contenders: Elizabethton (23.7%)

Darkhorses: Haywood (12.6%), Lexington (6.8%), Hardin Co. (6.8%)

Most likely championship game: Tullahoma vs. Haywood (28.4% odds of happening)

(R1 #2) Greeneville 20 at (R1 #1) Elizabethton 34
(R4 #2) Nolensville 13 at (R4 #1) Tullahoma 32
(R6 #2) Hardin Co. 21 at (R6 #1) Lexington 23
(R7 #2) Ripley 15 at (R7 #1) Haywood 38

5A

Favorites: Knoxville West (41.3%)

Second-tier contenders: Beech (21.3%), Henry Co. (16%)

Darkhorses: Oak Ridge (7.5%), Knoxville Central (5.4%)

Most likely championship game: Knoxville West vs. Beech (26.8% odds of happening)

(R2 #2) South-Doyle 24 at (R2 #1) Central 27
(R3 #2) Oak Ridge 18 at (R3 #1) Knoxville West 30
(R5 #1) Summit 20 at (R6 #1) Beech 31
(R7 #2) Northeast 16 at (R7 #1) Henry Co. 38

6A

Favorites: Maryville (41.4%)

Second-tier contenders: Oakland (27.6%), Brentwood (17%)

Darkhorses: Bartlett (8%)

Most likely championship game: Maryville vs. Brentwood (26% odds of happening)

(R1 #1) Dobyns-Bennett 14 at (R2 #1) Maryville 35
(R3 #2) Riverdale 21 at (R3 #1) Oakland 35
(R6 #4) Franklin 16 at (R6 #1) Brentwood 30
(R7 #2) Collierville 20 at (R7 #1) Bartlett 31

II-A

Favorites (40% or higher): Davidson Academy (69.6%)

Second-tier contenders (20% or higher): none

Darkhorses (10% or higher): University School of Jackson (14.2%)

Most likely championship game: Davidson Academy vs. University School of Jackson (45.6% odds of happening)

(W #2) University School of Jackson 23 at (E #1) Donelson Christian Academy 22
(W #3) Nashville Christian 15 at (W #1) Davidson Academy 34

II-AA

Favorites (40% or higher): Christ Presbyterian Academy (52.7%), Lipscomb Academy (41.9%)

Second-tier contenders (20% or higher): none

Darkhorses (10% or higher): none

Most likely championship game: Christ Presbyterian Academy vs. Lipscomb Academy (73% odds of happening)

(M #1) Lipscomb Academy 33 at (W #1) Evangelical Christian 17
(M #3) Goodpasture Christian 14 at (M #2) Christ Presbyterian Academy 35

II-AAA

Favorites (40% or higher): Brentwood Academy (50.6%)

Second-tier contenders (20% or higher): Montgomery Bell Academy (22.8%)

Darkhorses (10% or higher): McCallie (13.3%), Memphis University (13.3%)

Most likely championship game: Brentwood Academy vs. Montgomery Bell Academy (44.5% odds of happening)

(E #3) McCallie 20 at (E #1) Brentwood Academy 31
(W #3) Memphis University 18 at (W #1) Montgomery Bell Academy 22

2020 Tennessee high school football playoff projections, round two

November 13, 2020 by Will Warren, posted in High School Football Projections

If you’re curious, I am at the beach and, as of 4:22 PM ET, just realized I never posted this. I’ll get the graphics back next week.

1A

Favorites to win championship (20% or higher): South Pittsburg (39.6% to win; -2.9% from last week)

Second-tier contenders (5% or higher): Gordonsville (18.6%; +2.7%), Huntingdon (9.8%; +2.3%), Fayetteville (9.5%; +0.8%), Moore Co. (8.6%; -0.7%), Lake Co. (6.2%; -0.8%)

Darkhorses (1% or higher): Coalfield (2.4%; -0.8%), Greenback (1.6%; +0.2%), Monterey (1.5%; +0.2%)

Most likely championship game: South Pittsburg vs. Huntingdon (12.1% chance of happening)

(R2 #2) Oliver Springs 26 at (R1 #1) Cloudland 20
(R2 #3) Greenback 24 at (R2 #1) Coalfield 28
(R4 #2) Monterey 18 at (R3 #1) South Pittsburg 37
(R4 #3) Clay Co. 13 at (R4 #1) Gordonsville 30
(R5 #3) Huntland 16 at (R5 #1) Fayetteville 29
(R5 #2) Moore Co. 26 at (R6 #1) Huntingdon 28
(R7 #3) West Carroll 25.4 at (R7 #1) Greenfield 25.1
(R7 #4) Dresden 21 at (R7 #2) Lake Co. 38

2A

Favorites to win championship (20% or higher): Peabody (63.9%; +0.3%)

Second-tier contenders (5% or higher): Watertown (16.8%; -0.6%), Meigs Co. (9.8%; -0.8%)

Darkhorses (1% or higher): Trousdale Co. (3.4%; +1.0%), Lewis Co. (1.4%; -0.3%), McKenzie (1.2%; no change), Bledsoe Co. (1.1%; no change)

Most likely championship game: Peabody vs. Watertown (36.5% chance of happening)

(R2 #2) Rockwood 17 at (R1 #1) South Greene 28
(R1 #2) Hampton 17 at (R2 #1) Meigs Co. 32
(R4 #2) Trousdale Co. 23 at (R3 #1) Bledsoe Co. 20
(R3 #2) Marion Co. 18 at (R4 #1) Watertown 35
(R6 #2) Riverside 16 at (R5 #1) Lewis Co. 25
(R5 #2) Forrest 18 at (R6 #1) Waverly Central 28
(R7 #3) Union City 14 at (R7 #1) Peabody 46
(R7 #4) Adamsville 20 at (R7 #2) McKenzie 27

3A

Favorites to win championship (20% or higher): Alcoa (56%; -2.2%), Pearl-Cohn (24.2%; -0.2%)

Second-tier contenders (5% or higher): Red Bank (7.8%; +1.2%), Milan (5%; +0.4%)

Darkhorses (1% or higher): Covington (3.3%; +0.4%), South Gibson (2.3%; +0.2%)

Most likely championship game: Alcoa vs. Pearl-Cohn (42.9% chance of happening)

(R2 #4) Pigeon Forge 21 at (R2 #2) GPittman 31
(R2 #3) Kingston 2 at (R2 #1) Alcoa 43
(R3 #3) Brainerd 11 at (R3 #1) Red Bank 37
(R3 #2) Loudon 28 at (R4 #1) Upperman 18
(R5 #3) East Nashville 13 at (R5 #1) Pearl-Cohn 32
(R5 #2) Giles Co. 25 at (R6 #1) Stewart Co. 19
(R7 #3) Covington 22 at (R7 #1) Milan 25
(R7 #4) Westview 17 at (R7 #2) South Gibson 31

4A

Favorites to win championship (20% or higher): Tullahoma (37.4%; +3.8%), Elizabethton (30%; -6.5%)

Second-tier contenders (5% or higher): Lexington (9.8%; -0.3%), Hardin Co. (5.9%; +1%)

Darkhorses (1% or higher): Haywood (4%; -0.1%), Anderson Co. (3.6%; +0.9%); Nolensville (2.2%; +0.2%), Marshall Co. (2.1%; +0.6%), Dyersburg (2%; +0.5%), Springfield (1.8%; +0.1%)

Most likely championship game: Tullahoma vs. Lexington (15.6% chance of happening)

(R1 #3) Sullivan South 8 at (R1 #1) Elizabethton 41
(R1 #2) Greeneville 25 at (R2 #1) Anderson Co. 33
(R4 #2) Nolensville 28 at (R3 #1) DeKalb Co. 19
(R4 #3) Marshall Co. 16 at (R4 #1) Tullahoma 32
(R6 #2) Hardin Co. 24 at (R5 #1) Springfield 20
(R5 #2) Creek Wood 15 at (R6 #1) Lexington 33
(R7 #3) Dyersburg 28 at (R7 #1) Haywood 32
(R7 #4) Crockett Co. 26 at (R7 #2) Ripley 25

5A

Favorites to win championship (20% or higher): Knoxville West (36.5%; +5.9%)

Second-tier contenders (5% or higher): Henry Co. (18.4%; +1%), Beech (14.5%; -2.6%), Oak Ridge (8.5%; -1.3%), Summit (6.9%; +1.2%), Central (5.5%; +1.3%)

Darkhorses (1% or higher): South-Doyle (2.8%; +1.1%), Hillsboro (2.3%; +0.9%), Rhea Co. (1.9%; +0.9%), David Crockett (1%; -0.3%)

Most likely championship game: Knoxville West vs. Henry Co. (22.8% chance of happening)

(R2 #2) South-Doyle 29 at (R1 #1) David Crockett 27
(R2 #3) Knoxville Halls 21 at (R2 #1) Central 31
(R4 #2) Walker Valley 18 at (R3 #1) Knoxville West 38
(R3 #2) Oak Ridge 27 at (R4 #1) Rhea Co. 22
(R5 #3) Columbia Central 11 at (R5 #1) Summit 34
(R6 #3) Hillsboro 22 at (R6 #1) Beech 32
(R8 #2) Brighton 10 at (R7 #1) Henry Co. 40
(R7 #4) Clarksville 22 at (R7 #2) Northeast 33

6A

Favorites to win championship (20% or higher): Maryville (30.4%; +0.7%), Oakland (29.8%; -0.3%)

Second-tier contenders (5% or higher): Ravenwood (12.2%; -0.5%), Bartlett (8.7%; -0.4%), Brentwood (8.5%; +1.4%)

Darkhorses (1% or higher): Riverdale (2.5%; +0.3%), Independence (2.1%; -0.2%), Dobyns-Bennett (1.9%; -0.7%), McMinn Co. (1.8%; +0.2%), Collierville (1.1%; no change)

Most likely championship game: Oakland vs. Ravenwood (12.9% chance of happening) and Maryville vs. Ravenwood (12.4% chance of happening)

(R2 #2) McMinn Co. 24 at (R1 #1) Dobyns-Bennett 26
(R2 #3) Bradley Central 21 at (R2 #1) Maryville 43
(R4 #2) Mount Juliet 13 at (R3 #1) Oakland 43
(R3 #2) Riverdale 26 at (R4 #1) Hendersonville 22
(R6 #4) Franklin 16 at (R6 #2) Ravenwood 36
(R6 #3) Independence 19 at (R6 #1) Brentwood 27
(R7 #3) Bartlett 33 at (R7 #1) Houston 20
(R7 #4) Cordova 17 at (R7 #2) Collierville 30

II-A

Favorites to win championship (20% or higher): Davidson Academy (67.2%; +3%)

Second-tier contenders (5% or higher): University School of Jackson (17.2%; -1.4%), Donelson Christian Academy (9%; -0.4%)

Darkhorses (1% or higher): Nashville Christian (4.5%; -0.5%), King’s Academy (1.2%; -0.1%)

Most likely title game: Davidson Academy vs. University School of Jackson (47.8% chance of happening)

(W #4) Trinity Christian Academy 17 at (E #1) Donelson Christian Academy 34
(E #3) Middle Tennessee Christian 13 at (W #2) University School of Jackson 39
(W #5) Jackson Christian 13 at (W #1) Davidson Academy 41
(W #3) Nashville Christian 32 at (E #2) King’s Academy 28

II-AA

Favorites to win championship (20% or higher): Christ Presbyterian Academy (49.2%; -1.6%), Lipscomb Academy (42.1%; +0.4%)

Second-tier contenders (5% or higher): CAK (6%; +1%)

Darkhorses (1% or higher): Evangelical Christian (1.3%; +0.4%)

Most likely title game: Christ Presbyterian Academy vs. Lipscomb Academy (64.8% chance of happening)

(M #4) Battle Ground Academy 22 at (W #1) Evangelical Christian 26
(W #2) Lausanne Collegiate 14 at (M #1) Lipscomb Academy 38
(M #3) Goodpasture Christian 20 at (E #1) CAK 32
~~(E #4) Chattanooga Christian 7 at (M #2) Christ Presbyterian Academy 41~~ (game cancelled due to COVID-19)

II-AAA

Favorites to win championship (20% or higher): Brentwood Academy (46.4%)

Second-tier contenders (5% or higher): Montgomery Bell Academy (16.5%), Father Ryan (11.3%), McCallie (9.5%), Pope John Paul II (5.8%)

Darkhorses (1% or higher): Memphis University (3.9%), Christian Brothers (3.9%), Baylor (2.7%)

Most likely title game: Brentwood Academy vs. Montgomery Bell Academy (26.9% chance of happening)

(W #4) Pope John Paul II 19 at (E #1) Brentwood Academy 32
(E #3) McCallie 27 at (W #2) Christian Brothers 24
(E #4) Baylor 16 at (W #1) Montgomery Bell Academy 25
(W #3) Memphis University 23 at (E #2) Father Ryan 29

2020 Tennessee high school football playoff projections, round one

November 6, 2020November 6, 2020 by Will Warren, posted in High School Football Projections

Hello, and welcome to a yearly tradition here at Stats By Will dot com: the TSSAA high school football playoff projections. I’m a little surprised to be bringing this back this year, as in early September, I announced my plans to not cover high school football at all this year. Without going into great detail, I’ve taken on more responsibilities in my professional role, and to be honest, I care a lot more about my work in basketball than I really do this. That being said, I do enjoy the fun that projections like these can bring. In particular, the playoff projections are pretty easy to put together each year once the field is set.

This year, there won’t be any class-by-class analysis beyond what I’ve posted on Twitter, which were the class-by-class odds. I’ll put the favorites, second-tier contenders, and darkhorses for each class above the projections here so you can get a grasp on what’s at stake in each class. The game with the highest Quarterfinals swing at risk will be bolded and italicized in each class as well. This is not necessarily the best game, but the one that looks to mean the most to the eventual fields of 8. Other writers, like Tom Kreager and Donovan Stewart, know far more about this stuff than I do, so you should listen to them when it comes to high school football. However, I do enjoy providing this simple service for those that enjoy it.

I’ve made a few tweaks to this year’s playoff projections:

The ratings are a little different mix than usual. This year, I just used Cal Preps and Massey Ratings, as Sonny Moore’s ratings haven’t performed as well as those two in my time using both. Also, for the first time ever, my preseason ratings have a very small say in what you see here. They’re factored in at a rate of about 1.8%, which is miniscule, but has helped the ratings be a very tiny bit more accurate on the whole. (For instance, this probably would’ve made my call on last year’s Monterey/Whitwell game less extreme – by the time the game arrived, Monterey was a 95.8% favorite to win, but Whitwell won. They were the higher-ranked team in preseason by far.)
I’ve added a small amount of extra uncertainty to game-by-game picks. It isn’t much, but it’s enough to reflect that any sports season in COVID times is going to be more unpredictable than usual. I already know of two teams that can’t participate in the playoffs because of contact tracing issues. Also, some teams played six or seven games while others got in their full ten. I’m trying to do the best I can with this abnormally-small sample size.
I gave Alcoa a 30-point boost because otherwise, their fans will protest outside of my home. Not really, they’re simply as good as they always are.

Typically, these projections get around 80% of the games right during the playoffs, but I do expect this year to be a little lower. It’s a strange season, I’ve been told. Also, I think I still owe a guy a T-shirt because the school he played for beat the spread in one of the playoff games. If you are this player, please email statsbywill@gmail.com and I will write something very silly on a shirt for you.

1A

Favorites (20% or higher): South Pittsburg (42.5%)

Second-tier contenders (5% or higher): Gordonsville (15.9%), Moore Co. (9.3%), Fayetteville (8.7%), Huntingdon (7.5%), Lake Co. (7%)

Darkhorses (1% or higher): Coalfield (3.2%), Greenback (1.4%), Monterey (1.3%)

Most likely title game: South Pittsburg vs. Moore Co. (12.1% chance of happening)

(R1 #3) Jellico 9 at (R2 #2) Oliver Springs 40
(R1 #4) Hancock Co. 0 at (R2 #1) Coalfield 57
(R2 #3) Greenback 47 at (R1 #2) Unaka 16
(R2 #4) Midway 25 at (R1 #1) Cloudland 24
(R3 #3) Sale Creek 11 at (R4 #2) Monterey 38
(R3 #4) Whitwell 8 at (R4 #1) Gordonsville 44
(R4 #3) Clay Co. 19 at (R3 #2) Copper Basin 22
(R4 #4) Byrns [Jo] 5 at (R3 #1) South Pittsburg 46
(R5 #3) Huntland 25 at (R6 #2) Collinwood 20
(R5 #4) Cornersville 22 at (R6 #1) Huntingdon 32 (49.7% Quarterfinal swing – Huntingdon 41.2%, Cornersville 8.5%)
(R6 #3) Wayne Co. 10 at (R5 #2) Moore Co. 37
(R6 #4) Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 8 at (R5 #1) Fayetteville 36

2A

Favorites: Peabody (63.6%)

Second-tier contenders: Watertown (17.4%), Meigs Co. (10.6%)

Darkhorses: Trousdale Co. (2.4%), Lewis Co. (1.7%), McKenzie (1.2%), Bledsoe Co. (1.1%)

Most likely title game: Peabody vs. Watertown (38% chance of happening)

(R1 #3) Happy Valley 12 at (R2 #2) Rockwood 23
(R1 #4) Cosby 0 at (R2 #1) Meigs Co. 61
(R2 #3) Oneida 17 at (R1 #2) Hampton 30
(R2 #4) Cumberland Gap 7 at (R1 #1) South Greene 46
(R3 #3) Tyner Academy 17 at (R4 #2) Trousdale Co. 34
(R3 #4) Tellico Plains 1 at (R4 #1) Watertown 45
(R4 #3) Westmoreland 29 at (R3 #2) Marion Co. 38
(R4 #4) Cascade 10 at (R3 #1) Bledsoe Co. 30
(R5 #3) Eagleville 12 at (R6 #2) Riverside 29
(R5 #4) Loretto 13 at (R6 #1) Waverly Central 35
(R6 #3) East Hickman Co. 19 at (R5 #2) Forrest 27 (31.2% Quarterfinal swing – Forrest 23.2%, East Hickman Co. 8%)
(R6 #4) Scotts Hill 5 at (R5 #1) Lewis Co. 44

3A

Favorites: Alcoa (58.2%), Pearl-Cohn (24.4%)

Second-tier contenders: Red Bank (6.6%)

Darkhorses: Milan (4.6%), Covington (2.9%), South Gibson (2.1%)

Most likely title game: Alcoa vs. Pearl-Cohn (46.2% chance of happening)

(R1 #3) Unicoi Co. 17 at (R2 #2) GPittman 42
(R1 #4) Johnson Co. 0 at (R2 #1) Alcoa 52
(R2 #3) Kingston 30 at (R1 #2) Chuckey-Doak 17
(R2 #4) Pigeon Forge 30 at (R1 #1) Claiborne 25
(R3 #3) Brainerd 33 at (R4 #2) Smith Co. 18
(R3 #4) Signal Mountain 20 at (R4 #1) Upperman 28
(R4 #3) York Institute 5 at (R3 #2) Loudon 42
(R4 #4) Grundy Co. 0 at (R3 #1) Red Bank 49
(R5 #3) East Nashville 29 at (R6 #2) Fairview 17
(R5 #4) Stratford 22 at (R6 #1) Stewart Co. 23 (33.5% Quarterfinal swing – Stewart Co. 19.5%, Stratford 14%)
(R6 #3) Harpeth 7 at (R5 #2) Giles Co. 38
(R6 #4) Camden Central 0 at (R5 #1) Pearl-Cohn 56

4A

Favorites: Elizabethton (36.5%), Tullahoma (33.6%)

Second-tier contenders: Lexington (10.1%)

Darkhorses: Hardin Co. (4.9%), Haywood (4.1%), Anderson Co. (2.7%), Nolensville (2%), Springfield (1.7%), Dyersburg (1.5%), Marshall Co. (1.5%)

Most likely title game: Elizabethton vs. Lexington (15.4% chance of happening)

(R1 #3) Sullivan South 24 at (R2 #2) East Hamilton 27
(R1 #4) Grainger 13 at (R2 #1) Anderson Co. 39
(R2 #3) Howard Tech 14 at (R1 #2) Greeneville 40
(R2 #4) East Ridge 1 at (R1 #1) Elizabethton 48
(R3 #3) Livingston Academy 12 at (R4 #2) Nolensville 32
(R3 #4) Stone Memorial 4 at (R4 #1) Tullahoma 42
(R4 #3) Marshall Co. 30 at (R3 #2) Macon Co. 18
(R4 #4) Spring Hill 17 at (R3 #1) DeKalb Co. 27
(R5 #3) White House-Heritage 11 at (R6 #2) Hardin Co. 38
(R5 #4) White House 9 at (R6 #1) Lexington 40
(R6 #3) Jackson North Side 25 at (R5 #2) Creek Wood 28
(R6 #4) Jackson South Side 10 at (R5 #1) Springfield 34
(R7 #3) Dyersburg 37 at (R8 #2) Millington Central 11
(R7 #4) Crockett Co. 35 at (R8 #1) Fayette Ware 22 (47.2% Quarterfinal swing – Crockett Co. 40.9%, Fayette Ware 6.3%)

5A

Favorites: Knoxville West (30.6%)

Second-tier contenders: Henry Co. (17.4%), Beech (17.1%), Oak Ridge (9.8%), Powell (8.1%), Summit (5.7%)

Darkhorses: Knoxville Central (4.2%), South-Doyle (1.7%), Hillsboro (1.4%), David Crockett (1.3%), Rhea Co. (1%)

Most likely title game: Knoxville West vs. Henry Co. (18% chance of happening)

(R1 #3) Daniel Boone 22 at (R2 #2) South-Doyle 30 (52% Quarterfinal swing – South-Doyle 37.6%, Daniel Boone 14.4%)
(R1 #4) Morristown East 13 at (R2 #1) Central 34
(R2 #3) Knoxville Halls 26 at (R1 #2) Tennessee 28
(R2 #4) Sevier Co. 24 at (R1 #1) David Crockett 44
(R3 #3) Powell 35 at (R4 #2) Walker Valley 22
(R3 #4) Fulton 21 at (R4 #1) Rhea Co. 29
(R4 #3) Soddy Daisy 10 at (R3 #2) Oak Ridge 43
(R4 #4) Lenoir City 0 at (R3 #1) Knoxville West 53
(R5 #3) Columbia Central 16 at (R6 #2) Gallatin 23
(R5 #4) Lincoln Co. 8 at (R6 #1) Beech 39
(R6 #3) Hillsboro 29 at (R5 #2) Page 22
(R6 #4) Hillwood 10 at (R5 #1) Summit 37
(R7 #3) Dyer Co. 32 at (R8 #2) Brighton 24
(R7 #4) Clarksville 20 at (R8 #1) Munford 31

6A

Favorites: Oakland (30.1%), Maryville (29.7%)

Second-tier contenders: Ravenwood (12.7%), Bartlett (9.1%), Brentwood (7.1%)

Darkhorses: Dobyns-Bennett (2.6%), Independence (2.3%), Riverdale (2.2%), McMinn Co. (1.6%), Collierville (1.1%)

Most likely title game: Oakland vs. Ravenwood (13.4% chance of happening)

(R1 #3) Bearden 18 at (R2 #2) McMinn Co. 38
(R1 #4) Science Hill 15 at (R2 #1) Maryville 42
(R2 #3) Bradley Central 28 at (R1 #2) Farragut 35
(R2 #4) Cleveland 13 at (R1 #1) Dobyns-Bennett 36
(R3 #3) Warren Co. 24 at (R4 #2) Mount Juliet 27
(R3 #4) Blackman 21 at (R4 #1) Hendersonville 30 (38.5% Quarterfinal swing – Hendersonville 30.8%, Blackman 7.7%)
(R4 #3) Wilson Central 12 at (R3 #2) Riverdale 32
(R4 #4) Rossview 10 at (R3 #1) Oakland 45
(R5 #3) Stewarts Creek 9 at (R6 #2) Ravenwood 43
(R5 #4) Cane Ridge 12 at (R6 #1) Brentwood 35
(R6 #3) Independence 39 at (R5 #2) LaVergne 12
(R6 #4) Franklin 26 at (R5 #1) Smyrna 24

II-A

Favorites: Davidson Academy (64.2%)

Second-tier contenders: University School of Jackson (18.6%), Donelson Christian Academy (9.4%), Nashville Christian (5%)

Darkhorses: King’s Academy (1.3%), Friendship Christian (1%)

Most likely title game: Davidson Academy vs. University School of Jackson (46.6% chance of happening)

(E #5) Grace Christian Academy 20 at (W #4) Trinity Christian Academy 37 (14.8% Semifinals swing – Trinity Christian 14.3%, Grace Christian 0.5%)
(E #6) Webb Bell Buckle 5 at (W #3) Nashville Christian 45
(W #5) Jackson Christian 24 at (E #4) Friendship Christian 33
~~(W #6) Columbia Academy 26 at (E #3) Middle Tennessee Christian 28~~ (game forfeited by Columbia Academy due to COVID-19)

II-AA

Favorites: Christ Presbyterian Academy (50.8%), Lipscomb Academy (41.7%)

Second-tier contenders: CAK (5%)

Darkhorses: none; Evangelical Christian (0.9%) closest

Most likely title game: Christ Presbyterian Academy vs. Lipscomb Academy (66.9% chance of happening)

(W #4) Harding Academy 4 at (W #2) Lausanne Collegiate 46
(W #5) St. George’s 6 at (M #1) Lipscomb Academy 45
(M #4) Battle Ground Academy 32 at (W #3) Northpoint Christian 12
(M #5) Franklin Road Academy 20 at (W #1) Evangelical Christian 31 (55.8% Semifinals swing – Evangelical Christian 46.8%, Franklin Road Academy 9%)
(E #3) Webb 19 at (M #3) Goodpasture Christian 30
(E #4) Chattanooga Christian 23 at (E #2) Grace Christian 29
(E #5) Silverdale Academy 0 at (M #2) Christ Presbyterian Academy 48
(E #6) Boyd-Buchanan 12 at (E #1) CAK 41

There are 88 games this week in all; the expected record of these projections is roughly 73-15 (83.1%). We’ll see how they do.

A special best of luck to my former high school, Warren County, who will be playing my little brother’s high school, Mount Juliet. In a true battle for the ages, Warren County has the opportunity to secure their first playoff win since 1983 (!), along with their first nine-win season since 1983. It’s been a historic year, and I sincerely hope they pull this one off.

Good luck to all teams involved, and I’ll be back next Friday morning with more projections.