Tennessee high school football playoff projections, Round of 32

The TSSAA playoffs have finally arrived! Here we are, sitting in the Round of 32, with 108 games on this week’s slate and a whole bunch of predictions. (As a reminder, the II-AAA playoffs start next Friday.) If you’d like to catch up on playoff odds, read this post; it serves as an overall preview with a good bit of analysis.

The Week 11 projections went 139-29 (82.7%), marking the sixth week in seven with an 80% hit rate or above. The final regular season record for these projections comes out to 1418-347 (80.3%), which, for a system projecting every single game from Week 1 onward, ended up doing pretty well. I think that these should be getting somewhere between 79-85% of playoff games correct, which would be a solid rate.

Anyway, the games. Every game, unless I’m told otherwise, starts at 7 PM local time. Some games may be on TV; as best as I can, I’ve tried to reflect that. Otherwise, the projection provides all the information you really need. At the tail end of the post, there will be some additional analysis of each class. What games have the most at stake? What’s the highest-quality matchup out there? First, here’s the predictions.

1A

  • (R2 #4) Harriman 18 at (R1 #1) Cloudland 29
  • (R2 #3) Coalfield 43 at (R1 #2) Hancock Co. 11
  • (R1 #4) Unaka 0 at (R2 #1) Greenback 60
  • (R1 #3) Jellico 0 at (R2 #2) Oliver Springs 52
  • (R4 #4) Byrns [Jo] 0 at (R3 #1) South Pittsburg 54
  • (R4 #3) Gordonsville 19 at (R3 #2) Copper Basin 27
  • (R3 #4) Whitwell 10 at (R4 #1) Monterey 39
  • (R3 #3) Sale Creek 9 at (R4 #2) Clay Co. 31
  • (R6 #4) Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 4 at (R5 #1) Huntland 36
  • (R6 #3) Collinwood 13 at (R5 #2) Cornersville 30
  • (R5 #4) Richland 5 at (R6 #1) Huntingdon 45
  • (R5 #3) Mount Pleasant 24 at (R6 #2) McEwen 23
  • (R8 #4) Washington 4 at (R7 #1) Lake Co. 51
  • (R8 #3) Memphis East 16 at (R7 #2) West Carroll 31
  • (R7 #4) Dresden 18 at (R8 #1) Middle College 34
  • (R7 #3) Greenfield 25 at (R8 #2) Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 21

2A

  • (R2 #4) Cumberland Gap 9 at (R1 #1) Hampton 42
  • (R2 #3) Rockwood 16 at (R1 #2) South Greene 27
  • (R1 #4) Happy Valley 2 at (R2 #1) Meigs Co. 36
  • (R1 #3) Sullivan North 11 at (R2 #2) Oneida 32
  • (R4 #4) Westmoreland 24 at (R3 #1) Tyner Academy 41
  • (R4 #3) East Robertson 17 at (R3 #2) Bledsoe Co. 25
  • (R3 #4) Tellico Plains 1 at (R4 #1) Watertown 43
  • (R3 #3) Marion Co. 4 at (R4 #2) Trousdale Co. 46
  • (R6 #4) Hickman Co. 9 at (R5 #1) Forrest 39
  • (R6 #3) Riverside 12 at (R5 #2) Lewis Co. 27
  • (R5 #4) Summertown 17 at (R6 #1) Waverly Central 26
  • (R5 #3) Eagleville 19 at (R6 #2) Houston Co. 24
  • (R8 #4) Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 2 at (R7 #1) Peabody 41
  • (R8 #3) Douglass [Frederick] 24 at (R7 #2) Union City 29
  • (R7 #4) Adamsville 11 at (R8 #1) Fairley 34
  • (R7 #3) McKenzie 17 at (R8 #2) Mitchell 26

3A

  • (R2 #4) Kingston 25 at (R1 #1) Chuckey-Doak 21
  • (R2 #3) GPittman 38 at (R1 #2) Unicoi Co. 19
  • (R1 #4) West Greene 0 at (R2 #1) Alcoa 52
  • (R1 #3) Johnson Co. 2 at (R2 #2) Austin-East 44
  • (R4 #4) York Institute 0 at (R3 #1) Loudon 46
  • (R4 #3) Sequatchie Co. 5 at (R3 #2) Red Bank 38
  • (R3 #4) Signal Mountain 10 at (R4 #1) Upperman 36
  • (R3 #3) Sweetwater 21 at (R4 #2) Smith Co. 24
  • (R6 #4) Stewart Co. 0 at (R5 #1) Pearl-Cohn 49
  • (R6 #3) Camden Central 10 at (R5 #2) Stratford 39
  • (R5 #4) Giles Co. 22.5 at (R6 #1) Fairview 23.2
  • (R5 #3) East Nashville 34 at (R6 #2) Sycamore 7
  • (R8 #4) Sheffield 0 at (R7 #1) South Gibson 59
  • (R8 #3) Raleigh-Egypt 0 at (R7 #2) Milan 43
  • (R7 #4) Westview 20 at (R8 #1) Wooddale 26
  • (R7 #3) Covington 37 at (R8 #2) Melrose 5

4A

  • (R2 #4) East Ridge 6 at (R1 #1) Elizabethton 41
  • (R2 #3) Howard Tech 13 at (R1 #2) Greeneville 38
  • (R1 #4) Grainger 8 at (R2 #1) Anderson Co. 43
  • (R1 #3) Sullivan South 16 at (R2 #2) East Hamilton 33
  • (R4 #4) Maplewood 6 at (R3 #1) Livingston Academy 34
  • (R4 #3) Tullahoma 31 at (R3 #2) DeKalb Co. 14
  • (R3 #4) Stone Memorial 3 at (R4 #1) Marshall Co. 43
  • (R3 #3) Macon Co. 9 at (R4 #2) Nolensville 35
  • (R6 #4) Jackson South Side 13 at (R5 #1) Springfield 29
  • (R6 #3) Jackson North Side 24 at (R5 #2) Creek Wood 27
  • (R5 #4) Portland 9 at (R6 #1) Hardin Co. 39
  • (R5 #3) White House-Heritage 21 at (R6 #2) Lexington 27
  • (R8 #4) Craigmont 0 at (R7 #1) Haywood 58
  • (R8 #3) Bolton 2 at (R7 #2) Crockett Co. 52
  • (R7 #4) Dyersburg 19 at (R8 #1) Millington Central 28
  • (R7 #3) Ripley 24 at (R8 #2) Fayette Ware 23

5A

  • (R2 #4) Gibbs 19 at (R1 #1) Tennessee 37
  • (R2 #3) Knoxville Halls 23 at (R1 #2) Daniel Boone 27
  • (R1 #4) Cherokee 10 at (R2 #1) South-Doyle 43
  • (R1 #3) David Crockett 21 at (R2 #2) Central 31
  • (R4 #4) Lenoir City 0 at (R3 #1) Powell 58
  • (R4 #3) Walker Valley 8 at (R3 #2) Knoxville West 46
  • (R3 #4) Oak Ridge 28 at (R4 #1) Soddy Daisy 24
  • (R3 #3) Fulton 18 at (R4 #2) Rhea Co. 31
  • (R6 #4) Hunters Lane 1 at (R5 #1) Page 40
  • (R6 #3) Hillsboro 15 at (R5 #2) Shelbyville Central 36
  • (R5 #4) Columbia Central 11 at (R6 #1) Beech 33
  • (R5 #3) Summit 19 at (R6 #2) Gallatin 23
  • (R8 #4) Ridgeway 12 at (R7 #1) Henry Co. 34
  • (R8 #3) Kirby 22 at (R7 #2) Dyer Co. 30
  • (R7 #4) Kenwood 13 at (R8 #1) Southwind 45
  • (R7 #3) Clarksville 23 at (R8 #2) Munford 26

6A

  • (R2 #4) William Blount 7 at (R1 #1) Dobyns-Bennett 42
  • (R2 #3) Bradley Central 33 at (R1 #2) Farragut 28
  • (R1 #4) Science Hill 11 at (R2 #1) Maryville 44
  • (R1 #3) Bearden 21 at (R2 #2) McMinn Co. 32
  • (R4 #4) Lebanon 8 at (R3 #1) Oakland 44
  • (R4 #3) Wilson Central 13 at (R3 #2) Blackman 32
  • (R3 #4) Cookeville 16 at (R4 #1) Hendersonville 35
  • (R3 #3) Riverdale 22.4 at (R4 #2) Mount Juliet 21.6
  • (R6 #4) Franklin 17 at (R5 #1) Cane Ridge 33
  • (R6 #3) Independence 29 at (R5 #2) Smyrna 18
  • (R5 #4) McGavock 1 at (R6 #1) Brentwood 43
  • (R5 #3) Stewarts Creek 11 at (R6 #2) Ravenwood 38
  • (R8 #4) Germantown 9 at (R7 #1) Houston 41
  • (R8 #3) Memphis Central 24 at (R7 #2) Collierville 25
  • (R7 #4) Cordova 4 at (R8 #1) Whitehaven 28
  • (R7 #3) Bartlett 15 at (R8 #2) White Station 26

II-A

  • (W #6) Tipton-Rosemark Academy 20 at (E #3) Donelson Christian Academy 28
  • (W #5) Fayette Academy 38 at (E #4) Middle Tennessee Christian 19
  • (E #6) Grace Baptist Academy 0 at (W #3) University School of Jackson 46
  • (E #5) Mount Juliet Christian Academy 10 at (W #4) Columbia Academy 43

II-AA

  • (M #5) Goodpasture Christian 14 at (E #1) Grace Christian 36
  • (E #4) CAK 22 at (E #2) Chattanooga Christian 27
  • (M #4) Lipscomb Academy 32 at (E #3) Boyd-Buchanan 23
  • (E #5) Webb 9 at (M #1) Christ Presbyterian Academy 30
  • (W #5) Northpoint Christian 3 at (M #2) Franklin Road Academy 43
  • (W #3) First Assembly Christian 11 at (M #3) Battle Ground Academy 44
  • (W #6) Harding Academy 0 at (W #1) Evangelical Christian 51
  • (W #4) St. George’s 14 at (W #2) Lausanne Collegiate 34

Below are the best games by class, along with how each team ranks in my Class Ratings. The parentheses is their region and seed; the number directly to the left of the team name is how they rank in their given class.

  • 1A: (R5 #3) #8 Mount Pleasant at (R6 #2) #10 McEwen
  • 2A: (R5 #3) #16 Eagleville at (R6 #2) #12 Houston Co.
  • 3A: (R5 #4) #15 Giles Co. at (R6 #1) #17 Fairview
  • 4A: (R6 #3) #13 Jackson North Side at (R5 #2) #12 Creek Wood
  • 5A: (R5 #3) #10 Summit at (R6 #2) #9 Gallatin
  • 6A: (R3 #3) #15 Riverdale at (R4 #2) #19 Mount Juliet
  • II-A: (W #6) #10 Tipton-Rosemark Academy at (E #3) #7 Donelson Christian Academy
  • II-AA: (E #4) #8 CAK at (E #2) #7 Chattanooga Christian

Various other notes:

  • There’s probably going to be a couple big upsets. My system has 54 teams as 22-point favorites or greater; the odds are only about 23% that all 54 win their games. Weird stuff happens in high school football. If you want to expand it a little, there’s only a 1% chance every 15-point or higher favorite wins. Something funny will happen.
  • Looking for a favorite or title contender to get upset? These offer the highest odds of a shock outcome. Remember, we’re looking for teams with 5% title odds or higher.
    • Gibbs over Tennessee (13.5% odds of happening; Tennessee 6.5% title odds); Webb over Christ Presbyterian Academy (10.6% odds; CPA 20.2% title odds); Columbia Central over Beech (10.2% odds; Beech 6.5% title odds); Goodpasture Christian over Grace Christian (9.6% odds; Grace 7.8% title odds); Ridgeway over Henry County (9.1% odds; Henry Co. 13.3% title odds).
  • Looking for an outright favorite to lose? Not likely to happen; Maryville (2.9% to lose to Science Hill) offers the, uh, best? odds.

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

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