2019 Tennessee high school football preseason projections

by Will Warren, posted in High School Football Projections

Region-by-Region Win Projections, With Somewhat Informed Analysis

Below is a quick rundown of all 48 public school regions, plus the seven private school ones. Each has light analysis, along with the projected region record for each school, rounded to the nearest whole number. (NOTE: This means it likely won’t round perfectly to the exact number of wins available in each conference, though I’ll do tiebreakers where necessary.) I’ll try to keep this one as short as possible. To get to the Region in question, hit CTRL + F on your computer and type in the Class followed by the Region – for instance, “2A-7” or similar.

Public Schools

NOTE: The top four teams in each Region make their respective playoffs.

1A

1A-1

  • 1. Cloudland (3-0)
  • 2. Hancock Co. (2-1)
  • 3. Jellico (1-2)
  • 4. Unaka (0-3)

Nothing of serious note here; Cloudland is a giant favorite in all three games. Hancock Co. actually slides more towards 1-2 than 2-1; Jellico/Unaka decides seed #3, in all likelihood. Cloudland is the only team with a serious chance of making playoff noise.

1A-2

  • 1. Greenback (6-0)
  • T-2. Oliver Springs (4-2)
  • T-2. Coalfield (4-2)
  • T-4. Harriman (3-3)
  • T-4. Midway (3-3)
  • 6. Sunbright (1-5)
  • 7. Oakdale (0-6)

Greenback by a lot. Just like last year, 2-5 will be tight, but there appear to be separate tiers; Oliver Springs/Coalfield in Week 10 likely decides who gets a home playoff game against bad Region 1 teams, while Harriman/Midway in Week 8 likely decides who gets to play Cloudland in the first round.

1A-3

  • 1. South Pittsburg (4-0)
  • 2. Whitwell (3-1)
  • 3. Lookout Valley (2-2)
  • 4. Copper Basin (1-3)
  • 5. Sale Creek (0-4)

Two games to watch: South Pittsburg/Whitwell in Week 9; Copper Basin/Sale Creek in Week 3. One decides the region; the other decides a playoff spot (probably).

1A-4

  • 1. Gordonsville (4-1)
  • T-2. Monterey (3-2)
  • T-2. Jo Byrns (3-2)
  • T-2. Clay Co. (3-2)
  • 5. Pickett Co. (1-4)
  • 6. Red Boiling Springs (0-5)

The gap between Gordonsville and the second-place tie is just 0.58 wins; this is realistically a four-wide race for first. Gordonsville draws Byrns and Monterey for their final two games, while Byrns draws two of three at home. Finishing top two means you get to avoid South Pittsburg/Whitwell until the second round.

1A-5

  • 1. Cornersville (5-0)
  • 2. Mount Pleasant (4-1)
  • T-3. Moore Co. (2-3)
  • T-3. Huntland (2-3)
  • T-5. Richland (1-4)
  • T-5. Fayetteville (1-4)

Two teams clearly ahead of the pack, with either a two-team lottery for third or a four-team lottery for third and fourth. Moore Co. and Huntland are significantly better than Richland and Fayetteville, but it seems to think one of those latter two will pick off a top four team at some point. Region winner avoids Huntingdon until the quarterfinals.

1A-6

  • 1. Huntingdon (6-0)
  • 2. Wayne Co. (4-2)
  • T-3. Collinwood (3-3)
  • T-3. McEwen (3-3)
  • 5. Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central (2-4)
  • T-6. Perry Co. (1-5)
  • T-6. Middleton (1-5)

Huntingdon is a massive favorite in every region game. Past them, Wayne Co. has a sizable edge on the pack for second. Collinwood, McEwen, and Hollow Rock are all within one win of each other in the projections; Collinwood has to play both on the road, which could decide their fate.

1A-7

  • 1. Lake Co. (6-0)
  • T-2. Dresden (4-2)
  • T-2. West Carroll (4-2)
  • T-2. Greenfield (4-2)
  • 5. South Fulton (2-4)
  • 6. Humboldt (1-5)
  • 7. Gleason (0-6)

One thing’s a near-certainty: Lake Co. will win this region, and is likely to make the state semifinals. Beyond that, anything from 2-4 is possible. Dresden plays West Carroll and Greenfield in Weeks 4 and 5, while West Carroll and Greenfield draw each other for the season finale. That game could realistically decide the 2-4 seeds, which makes the waiting game for Region 8 residents hard.

1A-8

  • 1. Freedom Prep Academy (7-1)
  • 2. Memphis Business Academy (6-2)
  • T-3. Bluff City (4-4)
  • T-3. Westwood (4-4)
  • T-3. Oakhaven (4-4)
  • T-6. Memphis Academy of Science & Engineering (3-5)
  • T-6. Middle College (3-5)
  • 8. Memphis East (2-6)
  • 9. B.T. Washington (1-7)

Past Freedom Prep, I know nothing at all about this region. Bluff City is a brand new school that had what I thought was a very conservative projection, but apparently not. Memphis Business Academy is able to afford a $14M STEM academy, so I at least feel somewhat confident about their projection. But beyond that, it’s a mess. MASE made the playoffs last year and got demolished. Westwood, same. Memphis East made it in 4A…because there were four teams in their region. They were 0-10. B.T. Washington was a 1-9 team that returns 10 starters. Middle College returns 15, but they went 3-7. Honestly: any team from 2 to 9 can make the playoffs. I have no idea what three make it.

2A

2A-1

  • T-1. South Greene (3-1)
  • T-1. Happy Valley (3-1)
  • T-3. Hampton (2-2)
  • T-3. Sullivan North (2-2)
  • 5. Cosby (0-4)

Pretty wide-open; the top three are within 0.39 projected wins of each other. South Greene is probably the best of the group, but none of the three should be expected to do much more than a quarterfinal run at best.

2A-2

  • 1. Meigs Co. (4-0)
  • 2. Oneida (3-1)
  • 3. Rockwood (2-2)
  • T-4. Wartburg (1-3)
  • T-4. Cumberland Gap (1-3)

Meigs should win this without a ton of trouble. Oneida and Rockwood, likewise, should compete for a first round home game. Behind that, the Wartburg/Cumberland Gap game in Week 7 should decide the final playoff spot. It’s been said earlier in this piece, but Meigs is a top-tier title contender. The Oneida/Rockwood winner can make the quarterfinals.

2A-3

  • 1. Tyner Academy (4-0)
  • T-2. Marion Co. (2-2)
  • T-2. Polk Co. (2-2)
  • T-2. Bledsoe Co. (2-2)
  • 4. Tellico Plains (0-4)

Tyner by a mile. The middle three teams here are separated by a half-win, and it’s a little generous to put Bledsoe in the same conversation…but hey, why not. Tyner has the potential to make some noise, with their most likely outcome being a quarterfinal run. The Marion/Polk/Bledsoe roulette winner could win a first round game.

2A-4

  • T-1. Trousdale Co. (4-1)
  • T-1. Watertown (4-1)
  • 3. Westmoreland (3-2)
  • 4. East Robertson (2-3)
  • T-5. Jackson Co. (1-4)
  • T-5. Cascade (1-4)

The four playoff teams seem pretty well decided, but the winner of Trousdale/Watertown in Week 3 likely determines the division and a lot of upper-bracket scenarios. They could also simply play each other a second time in the quarterfinals for the right to make the state semifinals.

2A-5

  • 1. Lewis Co. (4-1)
  • T-2. Eagleville (3-2)
  • T-2. Forrest (3-2)
  • T-4. Summertown (2-3)
  • T-4. Loretto (2-3)
  • 6. Community (1-4)

The top three feels pretty locked into the playoffs, with the Summertown/Loretto winner in Week 6 being the fourth. It’s a region where Lewis Co. is the best team, but the competition is stiff enough to the point we could see someone else win it.

2A-6

  • 1. Waverly Central (5-0)
  • 2. Riverside (4-1)
  • T-3. Hickman Co. (2-3)
  • T-3. Houston Co. (2-3)
  • 5. Scotts Hill (1-4)
  • 6. East Hickman Co. (0-5)

Waverly Central/Riverside in Week 11 decides the region, as I have it at 68% that both teams enter that week at 4-0 in 2A-6 play. Because Waverly would currently be favored, they get the nod. Great job by the scheduler, by the way: Hickman Co./Houston Co., which should determine who gets to miss the 2A-5 winner in the first round, is also Week 11. Scotts Hill is ~51% likely to enter that final week at 0-4, with East Hickman at ~81%.

2A-7

  • 1. Peabody (5-0)
  • 2. Union City (4-1)
  • 3. McKenzie (3-2)
  • 4. Adamsville (2-3)
  • 5. Gibson Co. (1-4)
  • 6. Halls (0-5)

Fairly straightforward; Peabody is a heavy favorite and Union City is at least an eight-point favorite over both third and fourth place. McKenzie and Adamsville play in Week 11; Gibson can play spoiler but is required to pick off one of McKenzie/Adamsville in Weeks 7/9.

2A-8

  • 1. Fairley (8-0)
  • 2. Mitchell (6-2)
  • T-3. Frederick Douglass (5-3)
  • T-3. Trezevant (5-3)
  • 5. Memphis Academy of Health Sciences (4-4)
  • T-6. Hillcrest (3-5)
  • T-6. Manassas (3-5)
  • 7. KIPP Collegiate (2-6)
  • 8. Hamilton (1-7)

Fairley is the best team here by some margin. Mitchell is the second-best team by some margin. Douglass and Trezevant are very close together; any of MAHS, Hillcrest, or Manassas could reasonably sneak in. Even Fairley topped out at a 10% chance of surpassing the quarterfinals, so I don’t know if much action comes from here.

3A

3A-1

  • T-1. Johnson Co. (4-1)
  • T-1. Unicoi Co. (4-1)
  • T-3. Chuckey-Doak (2-3)
  • T-3. Claiborne (2-3)
  • T-3. West Greene (2-3)
  • 6. North Greene (0-5)

This one looks fun. Johnson Co. and Unicoi Co. are nearly equal and are combined favorites in 19 of their 20 total games, with Johnson a minimal favorite over Unicoi in their meeting for now. The three third-place teams have wild paths to the playoffs: Claiborne’s non-region schedule is very light, while Chuckey-Doak and West Greene have made it hard on themselves. The final two playoff teams in this region could be decided by point differential.

3A-2

  • 1. Alcoa (6-0)
  • 2. Austin-East (5-1)
  • 3. Gatlinburg-Pittman (3-3)
  • T-4. Kingston (2-4)
  • T-4. Scott (2-4)
  • T-4. Northview (2-4)
  • 7. Pigeon Forge (1-5)

Top two are easy and require zero exposition; Austin-East will have yet another great season other than a 20+ point loss to Alcoa. Alcoa, as usual, is a heavy favorite to win 3A. Pittman needs a coin flip or two to go their way, but they could easily manage an 8-2 season (the 3-3 is because they are massive underdogs to both A-E and Alcoa). The three fourth-place teams are all a mess. Scott returns 14 starters, so if I had to pick one, I’d go with them.

3A-3

  • 1. Red Bank (5-0)
  • 2. Signal Mountain (4-1)
  • 3. Loudon (3-2)
  • 4. Brainerd (2-3)
  • 5. Sweetwater (1-4)
  • 6. McMinn Central (0-5)

Brainerd’s brutal non-region schedule means they could make the playoffs at 2-8 or 3-7; same goes for Sweetwater. I only have Red Bank and Signal Mountain projected above .500. Red Bank is a fairly safe bet to win at least one playoff game; Signal Mountain or Loudon could win a game as well.

3A-4

  • 1. Upperman (5-0)
  • 2. York Institute (4-1)
  • 3. Sequatchie Co. (3-2)
  • 4. Smith Co. (2-3)
  • 5. Cannon Co. (1-4)
  • 6. Grundy Co. (0-5)

This is actually closer than the standings suggest. Only Grundy seems easy to eliminate, as they’re projected for 0.74 overall wins. Cannon and Smith are both 4-6/5-5ish teams; Sequatchie is a definite third; Upperman has to defeat York on the road in Week 7 to win the region and avoid Red Bank (or York) until the quarterfinals.

3A-5

  • T-1. Pearl-Cohn (4-1)
  • T-1. East Nashville (4-1)
  • 3. Stratford (3-2)
  • 4. Giles Co. (2-3)
  • 5. Whites Creek (1-4)
  • 6. RePublic (0-5)

All of the top three in this region have good reasons to believe they can make the 3A title game. On the back end, Giles Co. should get back in the playoffs after having to forfeit wins due to an ineligible player last year.

3A-6

  • 1. Fairview (5-0)
  • 2. Camden Central (4-1)
  • T-3. Sycamore (2-3)
  • T-3. Cheatham Co. Central (2-3)
  • 5. Harpeth (1-4)
  • 6. Stewart Co. (0-5)

Fairview looks like an 8-2/9-1ish team that procures the misfortune of drawing a tough first round opponent followed by an even tougher second round opponent. Same for Camden Central, but 5-5/6-4. I think this may be underrating Cheatham Co. a little.

3A-7

  • 1. Covington (4-1)
  • T-2. McNairy Central (3-2)
  • T-2. Milan (3-2)
  • T-4. South Gibson (2-3)
  • T-4. Bolivar Central (2-3)
  • 6. Westview (0-5)

This is a rough region with just one outright forgettable team. It’s five teams for four spots, with a reasonably clear favorite (Covington’s a single-digit favorite against both McNairy and Milan) and several good teams behind them. I wouldn’t be surprised if all four teams from this region are favorites over their Region 8 counterparts in round one, even the two road teams.

3A-8

  • T-1. Wooddale (3-1)
  • T-1. Raleigh-Egypt (3-1)
  • 3. Melrose (2-2)
  • 4. Sheffield (1-3)
  • 5. King Prep (0-4)

Wooddale/Raleigh-Egypt in Week 3 will decide the region. Raleigh-Egypt is a single-digit underdog in three games, and it could single-handedly swing their year from 4-5 to 7-2. That’s a wide range!

4A

4A-1

  • 1. Greeneville (6-0)
  • 2. Elizabethton (5-1)
  • 3. Sullivan South (4-2)
  • 4. Grainger (3-3)
  • 5. Union Co. (2-4)
  • 6. Sullivan East (1-5)
  • 7. Sullivan Central (0-6)

Greeneville is the overwhelming favorite to win 4A. Despite sharing a region with Greeneville, Elizabethton is a top ~4 favorite as well. Grainger is actually favored in seven of their ten games; if it goes according to plan, this could be a breakout season. Sullivan South simply looks very stable. Union Co. is the only team not in the playoffs here that I could easily foresee getting in.

4A-2

  • 1. Anderson Co. (6-0)
  • T-2. Chattanooga Central (3-3)
  • T-2. Howard Tech (3-3)
  • T-2. East Ridge (3-3)
  • T-2. East Hamilton (3-3)
  • 6. Sequoyah (2-4)
  • 7. Hixson (1-5)

Anderson County is the favorite by miles, but LOOK AT THOSE MIDDLE FOUR TEAMS. They are collectively separated by 0.15 wins; any of them could finish second or miss the playoffs entirely. Howard Tech/East Ridge in Week 10 may decide a playoff spot, as could Howard Tech/East Hamilton in Week 11.

4A-3

  • T-1. Livingston Academy (3-1)
  • T-1. Stone Memorial (3-1)
  • T-3. Macon Co. (2-2)
  • T-3. DeKalb Co. (2-2)
  • 5. Cumberland Co. (0-4)

This one looks awesome. Stone Memorial quietly ran out to a 7-0 start a year ago before falling on the road to Lenoir City; Livingston went an unimpressive 5-6 but brings a lot back. Macon is significantly better than DeKalb, but has a tough draw schedule-wise.

4A-4

  • 1. Maplewood (4-1)
  • T-2. Tullahoma (3-2)
  • T-2. Nolensville (3-2)
  • T-2. Marshall Co. (3-2)
  • T-5. Spring Hill (1-4)
  • T-5. Lawrence Co. (1-4)

Anyone from Maplewood through Marshall Co. can win this region and it wouldn’t be a surprise. Maplewood is a flimsy favorite – they apparently return almost nobody – but none of the other top four teams return more than 11 starters. They all seem like great bets to beat up on each other, though Nolensville somehow draws all three at home.

4A-5

  • 1. Springfield (5-1)
  • 2. Montgomery Central (4-2)
  • T-3. Creek Wood (3-3)
  • T-3. Portland (3-3)
  • T-5. White House (2-4)
  • T-5. Greenbrier (2-4)
  • 7. White House-Heritage (1-5)

Springfield is favored in all ten of their games, while Montgomery Central is favored in all nine of their non-Springfield games. As mentioned on the previous page, Springfield is a good bet for a title game run. Portland appears to have turned a corner: they were 8-33 in the four seasons prior to 2018, when they went 6-5 and made the playoffs. Creek Wood returns 14 starters. Neither White House nor Greenbrier return more than half of their starters.

4A-6

  • 1. Jackson North Side (4-1)
  • T-2. Hardin Co. (3-2)
  • T-2. Jackson South Side (3-2)
  • 4. Lexington (2-3)
  • T-5. Liberty Tech Magnet (1-4)
  • T-5. Chester Co. (1-4)

The top three are separated by just 0.3 wins, meaning any of them could win the region without much surprise. North Side draws Hardin Co. and South Side at home, meaning they have a small edge. Likewise, the bottom three here are separated by 0.64 wins. Someone has to be the fourth team here.

4A-7

  • T-1. Haywood (3-1)
  • T-1. Dyersburg (3-1)
  • 3. Crockett Co. (2-2)
  • T-4. Obion Co. (1-3)
  • T-4. Ripley (1-3)

Here’s the thing: the system expects both Haywood and Dyersburg to beat Crockett Co., and both are around 6-9 point favorites in their respective games. However, it’s slightly more likely than not Crockett wins one of those. If they do, this region could get silly quick. If they don’t, it’s the Haywood/Dyersburg winner that wins it. Obion Co. is actually an underdog in all four region games, so I’d make Ripley a very tiny favorite to get the 4 seed.

4A-8

  • 1. Millington Central (3-0)
  • 2. Craigmont (2-1)
  • 3. Fayette Ware (1-2)
  • 4. Bolton (0-3)

This, as of now, is a very depressing region. Only Millington Central is projected to get to .500 overall (4.98-5.02 projected record), while Bolton is an underdog in all ten games. But hey, someone’s gotta make the playoffs.

5A

5A-1

  • 1. David Crockett (6-0)
  • T-2. Daniel Boone (4-2)
  • T-2. Tennessee (4-2)
  • 4. Cocke Co. (3-3)
  • 5. Morristown East (2-4)
  • T-6. Cherokee (1-5)
  • T-6. Volunteer (1-5)

David Crockett is a favorite in all ten of their games, but is expected to lose at least one; as they are more than 65% favorites in all six region games, I gave them the 6-0 nod. Depending on how things break, anyone from 4-6 can get the 4 seed. Daniel Boone and Tennessee should end up fighting it out for #2, or #1 if Crockett slips up.

5A-2

  • 1. Knoxville Central (6-0)
  • 2. South-Doyle (5-1)
  • T-3. Gibbs (3-3)
  • T-3. Knoxville Halls (3-3)
  • 5. Sevier Co. (2-4)
  • T-6. Carter (1-5)
  • T-6. Seymour (1-5)

A clear upper crust here, followed by a lot of question marks. Last year, Central demolished a pretty good South-Doyle team by 35, but South-Doyle brings back a ton of experience; I think it’ll be closer, with the same final result. Gibbs and Halls made the playoffs last year, with Halls notably pushing unbeaten David Crockett to overtime. I think it goes similarly this year, but the margin of error is relatively small; Gibbs only beat Sevier Co. by two points last year and Carter by five.

5A-3

  • T-1. Fulton (5-1)
  • T-1. Oak Ridge (5-1)
  • 3. Powell (4-2)
  • 4. Knoxville West (3-3)
  • 5. Campbell Co. (2-4)
  • 6. Clinton (1-5)
  • 7. Karns (0-6)

This doesn’t round up perfectly to the allotted amount of wins, but the story should be pretty clear: this is a three-way race between Fulton, Oak Ridge, and Powell. If West overachieves by a few points a game, it could easily be a four-team race. Barring an unusual leap from one of the bottom two or a return to quality play for Campbell Co., the four teams seem fairly locked into the playoffs.

5A-4

  • T-1. Soddy Daisy (2-1)
  • T-1. Rhea Co. (2-1)
  • T-1. Lenoir City (2-1)
  • 4. Walker Valley (0-3)

Yes, this can happen. All three defeat Walker Valley, while Soddy Daisy defeats Lenoir City but loses to Rhea Co. Meanwhile, Rhea Co. loses to Lenoir City. Considering Soddy Daisy/Rhea Co. is a coin-flip and Rhea Co./Lenoir City has just an eight-point spread, this is a very realistic scenario. It then goes to overall record, where all are projected at 5-5 or 6-4. Good luck figuring this out!

5A-5

  • 1. Page (4-1)
  • T-2. Shelbyville Central (3-2)
  • T-2. Summit (3-2)
  • T-4. Franklin Co. (2-3)
  • T-4. Lincoln Co. (2-3)
  • 6. Columbia Central (1-4)

This is the nuttiest region I could find. The top four are separated by just 1.03 wins, and Page is favored by more than 10 points in just one region game. Lose every game within a 0-8 point spread and it’s a 2-3 season with a potential playoff miss. Win every game – including the opener, their only game as an underdog, which has under a one-point spread – and it’s a 10-0 season you never forget. They play EIGHT GAMES where the projected scoring margin is single digits. Plus, they went 5-1 in one-score games last year, and that doesn’t hold forever…or does it?

5A-6

  • 1. Beech (5-0)
  • 2. Hillsboro (4-1)
  • 3. Gallatin (3-2)
  • 4. Hillwood (2-3)
  • 5. Glencliff (1-4)
  • 6. Hunters Lane (0-5)

This region featured an unusual three-way tie last year – three teams at 4-1 – and both Beech and Hillsboro were among the final eight teams standing. This year, it expects Beech and Hillsboro to be the main contenders, with Beech around a six-point favorite at the start of the season. Otherwise, 3-6 seem to be very defined.

5A-7

  • 1. Henry Co. (6-0)
  • T-2. Northeast (4-2)
  • T-2. Clarksville (4-2)
  • 4. Dyer Co. (3-3)
  • T-5. Kenwood (2-4)
  • T-5. Northwest (2-4)
  • 7. West Creek (0-6)

Last year’s 5A runner-up should win this region with relative ease; no region game last year was within 24 points, and the current projection has Henry Co. as at least a 15-point favorite in all six games. The race behind them is more interesting. Northeast and Clarksville are projected within 0.02 wins of each other in both overall and region record, and Dyer Co., Kenwood, and Northwest are separated by 0.57 wins. Poor West Creek; they are 8-62 in their last 70 region games.

5A-8

  • T-1. Kirby (5-1)
  • T-1. Ridgeway (5-1)
  • 3. Southwind (4-2)
  • T-4. Munford (3-3)
  • T-4. Brighton (3-3)
  • 6. Memphis Overton (1-5)
  • 7. Kingsbury (0-6)

Competitive and fun region where the top three teams all won at least one playoff game last year. Kirby ran the table in the region last year but had to cheat death against Southwind in the playoffs; Ridgeway demolished everyone in 5A-8 but Kirby beat them by 14; Southwind lost just two region games, but lost them by 53 total points. Behind them are Munford and Brighton, who battled each other for the final playoff spot last year in Week 11 but likely will be doing so in Week 5 this year.

6A

6A-1

  • 1. Farragut (6-0)
  • T-2. Bearden (4-2)
  • T-2. Science Hill (4-2)
  • T-4. Dobyns-Bennett (3-3)
  • T-4. Hardin Valley (3-3)
  • 6. Morristown West (1-5)
  • 7. Jefferson Co. (0-6)

Farragut is favored in all six region games by 10+ points, though they’ll have to figure out how to replace 13 starters from last year’s 11-2 team. Bearden lost nearly everyone offensively but returns their quarterback and several quality defensive players. Strangely, no one in this region returns more starters than Science Hill and Morristown West at 12 each. The gap from Science Hill to Hardin Valley is 0.64 wins in region play; any number of coin-flips could change who makes the playoffs versus who doesn’t.

6A-2

  • 1. Maryville (6-0)
  • 2. Bradley Central (4-2)
  • T-3. Ooltewah (3-3)
  • T-3. McMinn Co. (3-3)
  • T-3. Cleveland (3-3)
  • 6. William Blount (2-4)
  • 7. Heritage (0-6)

Obviously, Maryville – especially a Maryville that returns seven offensive starters and hasn’t lost a Region game since 2000 – is going to roll through this with ease. Behind them is a mess: Bradley Central through Cleveland are separated by 1.06 projected wins, and William Blount is just 0.71 wins behind Cleveland. McMinn went just 4-6 a year ago, but they return 18 starters – six more than anyone else in the region. The gap from Heritage to the rest is massive; there’s a decent, though unlikely, chance they go 0-10 again.

6A-3

  • 1. Oakland (7-0)
  • 2. Blackman (6-1)
  • T-3. Riverdale (4-3)
  • T-3. Cookeville (4-3)
  • 5. Siegel (3-4)
  • 6. Coffee Co. Central (2-5)
  • 7. Rockvale (1-6)
  • 8. Warren Co. (0-7)

Unsurprisingly, everyone else is chasing the reigning 6A champion. Blackman will come closest, though they lost 14 starters from last year’s 10-2 team. The battle for the final two playoff spots should come down to Riverdale, Cookeville, and Siegel. Of the three, Siegel returns the most starters (16), but has a long way to go up after a two-year 7-13 run. New school alert: Rockvale! The guess here is that because they’re mostly loaded with non-senior talent, this first year could be rough, but it’ll end up being fine by 2021 or so. Alumnus alert: Warren County, who looks to be embarking on a 29th straight non-winning season.

6A-4

  • 1. Mount Juliet (5-0)
  • T-2. Hendersonville (3-2)
  • T-2. Lebanon (3-2)
  • T-4. Rossview (2-3)
  • T-4. Wilson Central (2-3)
  • 6. Station Camp (0-5)

Mount Juliet hasn’t lost a 6A-4 game since the 2017 realignment (10-0) and also hasn’t lost a regular season game since 2016; they have a ~67% chance of a third-straight 10-0 run. Strangely, Lebanon is the only team in this region to return double-digit starters…and they return 10. Any of the middle four teams could make or miss the playoffs, but it’s certainly a lot easier to err on the side of Hendersonville and Lebanon, who combined for 15-5 regular season records last year. Station Camp somehow managed to lose 17 starters from a 3-7 team.

6A-5

  • 1. Cane Ridge (6-0)
  • T-2. Smyrna (4-2)
  • T-2. Stewarts Creek (4-2)
  • T-4. McGavock (3-3)
  • T-4. Nashville Overton (3-3)
  • 6. LaVergne (1-5)
  • 7. Antioch (0-6)

Cane Ridge was far better than their competition in 6A-5 last year, and considering they return 16 starters, the gap seems even wider. It’s pretty surprising that Stewarts Creek is expected to jump into a tie for second, but they return a fair amount of starters and were better than the record showed last year; it’ll be hard for them to go 0-3 in one-score games again. McGavock and Nashville Overton should battle it out for a playoff bid. Antioch apparently returns zero defensive starters.

6A-6

  • 1. Ravenwood (5-0)
  • T-2. Brentwood (3-2)
  • T-2. Independence (3-2)
  • T-4. Franklin (2-3)
  • T-4. Centennial (2-3)
  • 6. Dickson Co. (0-5)

As of now, I have no idea which ones of the various Ravenwood transfers will be eligible, if any. That said, it’s a team with 17 returning starters that made the 6A semifinals last year. Brentwood returns nearly everyone defensively, but lost seven offensive starters. Independence lost 12 starters, but it’s a program with 56 wins in the last six seasons. Franklin and Centennial are near-equal, simply because Centennial returns 16 starters.

6A-7

  • T-1. Cordova (3-1)
  • T-1. Houston (3-1)
  • 3. Collierville (2-2)
  • 4. Arlington (1-3)
  • 5. Bartlett (0-4)

Cordova and Houston is a coin-flip game, but Houston brings back more starters and won more games last year. You can slot them ahead if you’d like. Collierville lost 15 starters from a 5-6 team but returns a QB and a Louisville commit. Arlington and Bartlett both lost a ton and were 5-5 teams.

6A-8

  • 1. Whitehaven (3-0)
  • T-2. Germantown (2-1)
  • T-2. Memphis Central (2-1)
  • 4. White Station (0-3)

This one seems controversial. Germantown won this region last year and started out 12-0 before a quarterfinals loss to Whitehaven. However, they lost 15 starters from that team, a head coach, and both coordinators. It really feels like they’re starting over, which makes it easier to rationalize last year’s 6A runner-up in Whitehaven moving ahead. Memphis Central is more of a stretch, but they were an 8-3 team that came a play shy of knocking off Germantown in the second round last year. White Station has a new head coach and remains a distant fourth, though they nearly beat Memphis Central last year.

II-A

NOTE: The top six teams in both Regions make the playoffs. The top two teams in each Region earn a first-round bye.

II-A East

  • 1. Friendship Christian (7-0)
  • T-2. Middle Tennessee Christian (5-2)
  • T-2. Mount Juliet Christian Academy (5-2)
  • 4. Grace Baptist Academy (4-3)
  • T-5. Webb Bell Buckle (2-5)
  • T-5. King’s Academy (2-5)
  • T-5. Donelson Christian Academy (2-5)
  • 8. Grace Christian Academy (0-7)

Friendship Christian, last year’s runner-up in II-A, remains ahead of the pack. They demolished their six proper Region opponents (Concord Christian forfeited all scheduled games) by a score of 290-71, and all the Region did was add a team entirely new to 11-man football (Webb Bell Buckle) and a team that went 1-8 in 1A football (Grace Christian). Middle Tennessee and Mount Juliet look to be fairly close, while Grace Baptist (7-4-1 last year) should still be pretty solid. Webb Bell Buckle is very interesting; they were the second-best 8-man football team in Tennessee last year and could make this an easier transition than expected. King’s and Donelson will fight for the right to play the #3 West team.

II-A West

  • 1. Davidson Academy (7-1)
  • 2. Columbia Academy (6-2)
  • T-3. Fayette Academy (5-3)
  • T-3. University School of Jackson (5-3)
  • T-3. Nashville Christian (5-3)
  • 6. Trinity Christian Academy (3-5)
  • T-7. Clarksville Academy (2-6)
  • T-7. Tipton-Rosemark Academy (2-6)
  • 9. Jackson Christian (0-8)

Davidson Academy is actually favored by at least nine points in all eight Region games, but the system says it’s more likely than not they drop one at some point; their competition is pretty solid and certainly better than the East. Davidson returns 16 starters, but all four teams behind them return a lot of talent, too. Columbia Academy is making the move over from a 9-3 run in 2A play, while Fayette played Davidson to an incredible 62-56 loss last year. USJ is dropping from II-AA to II-A, which adds even more talent to the pool. Nashville Christian overcame an insane schedule to finish 4-2 in Region play last year. This is a great, competitive group of teams.

II-AA

NOTE: This is a 16-team playoff. The top five from the East and Middle and top six from the West make the playoffs; it’s a very weird structure that can end up having the #1 East and #1 Middle teams playing each other in the state semifinals.

II-AA East

  • T-1. Notre Dame (5-1)
  • T-1. Webb (5-1)
  • 3. Chattanooga Christian (4-2)
  • T-4. CAK (3-3)
  • T-4. Grace Christian (3-3)
  • 6. Silverdale Academy (1-5)
  • 7. Boyd-Buchanan (0-6)

It took Webb about eight weeks to get going last year, but when they did, they were ready to roll: a 1-5 start turned into five straight wins and a quarterfinals run. Notre Dame, in contrast, lost their bookends and went 9-0 in between; they fell just a point shy of the II-AA semifinals. Chattanooga Christian could turn this into a three-team race if they’re better than expected; they went 3-3 in Region play last year, but return 14 starters and are senior-heavy. CAK lost Stewart Howell (QB) but returns 14 starters as well. Grace Christian is a good team that lost two D-1 prospects; I’d assume they hope their returning depth can compensate. Silverdale Academy could reasonably sneak into the playoffs if a few things break their way; the gap between them at GCA isn’t as large as the binary record suggests.

II-AA Middle

  • 1. Christ Presbyterian Academy (4-0)
  • 2. Battle Ground Academy (3-1)
  • 3. Franklin Road Academy (2-2)
  • 4. Lipscomb Academy (1-3)
  • 5. Goodpasture Christian (0-4)

All five teams make the playoffs, so there’s not a ton at stake here, really. CPA won the, uh, “tie-breaker,” which is a nice way of saying they are tentatively favored by a few points over BGA at home. Franklin Road is better than the bottom two; Lipscomb Academy is probably two touchdowns better than Goodpasture.

II-AA West

  • 1. Lausanne Collegiate (5-0)
  • 2. Evangelical Christian (4-1)
  • T-3. Harding Academy (2-3)
  • T-3. St. George’s (2-3)
  • T-3. First Assembly Christian (2-3)
  • 6. Northpoint Christian (0-5)

All six teams make the playoffs. Lausanne had zero issues with non-Evangelical Christian teams in this Region last year, but Evangelical nearly beat them once and Lausanne lost a ton of talent from the 2018 team. 3-5 in this Region are fairly interchangeable, though First Assembly Christian just barely rounded up to a 2-3 projection. Northpoint went 0-10 a year ago but is a projected favorite in three non-Region games.

II-AAA

NOTE: The top four teams from the East and West make the playoffs. It’s an eight-team playoff that starts when the second round is going for everyone else (AKA, November 15).

II-AAA East

  • 1. Brentwood Academy (5-0)
  • 2. McCallie (4-1)
  • 3. Knoxville Catholic (3-2)
  • 4. Ensworth (2-3)
  • T-5. Baylor (1-4)
  • T-5. Father Ryan (1-4)

Brentwood Academy is projected to be the best team in the state this year, which is a little crazy considering their 2018 talent lost. Their best player is Devyn Curtis, a likely Vanderbilt commit. McCallie may have the single best player in this Region in Jay Hardy, a defensive end choosing between Georgia and Tennessee. Past that, Knoxville Catholic has decided to return to private school play, somehow making this insanely tough region even harder. Let me clarify: the top three teams here are, at worst, three of the 15 best teams in the state. Ensworth is a top 25 team in this state, yet they’re the fourth-best team in their own Region. Baylor and Father Ryan, as of when I wrote this, was a projected tie.

II-AAA West

  • T-1. Memphis University (4-1)
  • T-1. Montgomery Bell Academy (4-1)
  • 3. Christian Brothers (3-2)
  • T-4. Briarcrest Christian (2-3)
  • T-4. Pope John Paul II (2-3)
  • 6. St. Benedict at Auburndale (0-5)

To close it out, here’s a wild Region that is reliant on a few different swing games. MUS/MBA in Week Five is a matchup of two of the ~25 best teams in the state and should decide the Region. In between, Christian Brothers has to fend off Pope John Paul II (Week Five) and Briarcrest Christian (Week Seven) just to stay with the top two. Briarcrest and PJPII draw each other in Week Three. St. Benedict at Auburndale is at least a 28-point underdog in every Region game.

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