It’s here! Tennessee high school football is back for another season, as am I. You’re reading this on a new site, obviously. For the last two years, I’ve done these projections at an older personal site. Now, they will be transferred to this more professional site for my work in statistics and analytics.
A refresher, which I already put out in the season preview: The System™ produced excellent results in 2018 with a smaller, East Tennessee-only sample size in the regular season: a 279-54 (83.8%) likelihood of correctly calling the outcome of a game, well above the expected mark of ~77%. In the Tennessee state playoffs, which included all teams from Tennessee, not just those in my personal region, the ratings correctly predicted 177 of 221 games (80.1%), slightly above that same expected mark. On the whole, The System™ went 456-98 (82.3%) and correctly predicted the winner in 24 of 27 state semifinal/championship games. (Quick note: no, I don’t actually call it The System™.)
This year, there is an obvious difference: I’m including all 342 teams in regional play from the state of Tennessee. Every community from Memphis to Mountain City to Copperhill to Tiptonville will be covered, and I can’t wait to see how it unfolds. Obviously, this means a gigantic jump in sample size. Last year’s regular season projections relied upon a 333-game sample; this year’s will feature around 1,771, barring forfeits. Increasing the sample size by more than five-fold should give us even more reliability in how these projections turn out by year’s end, hopefully.
With all that said, you didn’t come here to read lots of precursory words on what I do. You came here for football projections. Four quick notes:
1. The projected scores are rounded to the nearest whole number. In events where the projected margin is under one point, they are rounded to the nearest tenth, then hundredth of a number if necessary.
2. Unlike the last two years where the winning team is listed first, I’ve listed the road and home teams with their projected score next to their names. It doesn’t look quite as pretty, I guess, but it makes more sense. Out-of-state teams have the appropriate state tag in parentheses.
3. Until regional play begins, the games are ordered alphabetically by the home team’s name.
4. In the previous two years I’ve done this, Week One has been the least-successful projecting week by a significant distance. Take these projections with a grain of salt, because, like all preseason projections, they’re heavily based on what your team has done recently. The last two years, the system has called around 85% of winners from Week 5 onward.
Alright! Here’s the games. One last note: if they’re on TV, the relevant station and start time is in parentheses. For online broadcasts, it’s a guessing game, but a healthy amount of Knoxville-area games are on Diamond Clear Media, a few scattered games are on the NFHS Network, TNHighSchoolFootball.com is covering Lebanon-Gallatin, and there’s probably other sites I’m unfamiliar with. All East Tennessee games are at 7:30 PM ET unless listed otherwise; same for West and Middle Tennessee at 7 PM CT.
As one final reminder, you can view the preseason win projections here.
Wednesday
- Whitwell 33 at East Ridge 16
(For those who don’t know, Whitwell has to play two games in Week 1 because the previous head coach made a bizarre scheduling error. You’ll see them again in this article under Saturday.)
Thursday
- Harpeth 16 at Byrns [Jo] 23
- Upperman 27 at Cookeville 23
- Kingsbury 21 at Craigmont 29
- Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 11 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 24
- Wooddale 32 at Memphis Business Academy 14
- Melrose 23 at Memphis Overton 21
- Milan 17 at Peabody 34
- Greeneville 37 at Powell 17 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT)
- Rogers (AL) 34 at Richland 15
- Tullahoma 21 at Shelbyville Central 25
Friday
- Nolensville 36 at Antioch 10
- Halls 8 at Arlington 47
- Douglass [Frederick] 14 at Bartlett 34
- Adamsville 14 at Biggersville (MS) 31
- White Station 45 at Bolton 3
- North Georgia (GA) 17 at Boyd-Buchanan 36
- Farragut 32 at Bradley Central 16
- Montgomery Bell Academy 29 at Brentwood 15
- Raleigh-Egypt 21 at Brighton 27
- Volunteer 21 at CAK 38
- Waverly Central 32 at Camden Central 25
- Cocke Co. 26 at Campbell Co. 35
- Moore Co. 31 at Cascade 18
- Cleveland 13 at Knoxville Central 37
- McCallie 42 at Chattanooga Christian 1
- Union Co. 28 at Cherokee 30
- Fayette Ware 14 at Chester Co. 29
- Bob Jones (AL) 24 at Christian Brothers 20
- Pigeon Forge 24 at Claiborne 23
- Rossview 23 at Clarksville 27
- RePublic 15 at Clarksville Academy 36
- Monroe Co. (KY) 28 at Clay Co. 24
- Anderson Co. 42 at Clinton 16
- Wartburg 14 at Coalfield 35
- Southwind 18 at Collierville 26
- Middleton 18 at Collinwood 38
- Marshall Co. 21 at Columbia Academy 22
- Spring Hill 21 at Columbia Central 28
- Polk Co. 35 at Copper Basin 13
- Community 4 at Cornersville 46
- Hancock Co. 21 at Cosby 25
- Dickson Co. 19 at Creek Wood 23 (7:30 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
- Ooltewah 21 at David Crockett 30
- Franklin Road Academy 26 at Davidson Academy 34
- Tennessee 21 at Dobyns-Bennett 31 (7:30 PM ET, WCYB-TV CW affiliate)
- Crockett Co. 29 at Dyer Co. 22
- King Prep 3 at Dyersburg 54
- Perry Co. 23 at East Hickman Co. 27
- Forrest 26 at East Robertson 21
- Portland 23.4 at Edmonson Co. (KY) 22.6
- Trezevant 0 at Ensworth 42
- Christ Presbyterian Academy 33 at Evangelical Christian 19
- Manassas 5 at Fairley 40 (played at Freeman)
- Page 24.9 at Fairview 25.1
- Harding Academy 23 at Fayette Academy 34
- Marion Co. 31 at Fayetteville 15
- Jackson Christian 14 at First Assembly Christian 31
- Brentwood Academy 37 at Florence (AL) 8
- Coffee Co. Central 17 at Franklin Co. 30
- Bolivar Central 27 at Freedom Prep Academy 24
- Trousdale Co. 25 at Friendship Christian 22
- Greenfield 44 at Fulton City (KY) 6
- Gleason 15 at Fulton Co. (KY) 46
- Lebanon 24 at Gallatin 21
- KIPP Collegiate 0 at Germantown 51
- Knoxville Halls 23 at Gibbs 25
- Obion Co. 26 at Gibson Co. 20
- Lipscomb Academy 44 at Glencliff 1
- Mount Juliet Christian Academy 22 at Goodpasture Christian 29
- Hampton 15 at Gatlinburg-Pittman 30
- Cumberland Gap 11 at Grainger 33
- Loudon 12 at Greenback 40
- Bluff City 29 at H.W. Byers (MS) 17
- Cloudland 20 at Happy Valley 24
- Henry Co. 30 at Haywood 22
- Oakland 42 at Hendersonville 7
- Lenoir City 32 at Heritage 24
- Cheatham Co. Central 27 at Hillwood 28
- West Carroll 29 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 17
- Southaven (MS) 24 at Houston 23
- Stratford 28 at Howard Tech 17
- Memphis East 28.2 at Humboldt 27.5
- Eagleville 31 at Huntland 21
- York Institute 41 at Jackson Co. 4
- Beech 33 at Jackson North Side 18
- Sevier Co. 20 at Jefferson Co. 28
- Williamsburg (KY) 61 at Jellico 0
- Sullivan East 16 at Johnson Co. 33
- Walker Valley 29 at Karns 33
- Hopkinsville (KY) 25 at Kenwood 9
- Harriman 19 at Kingston 24
- Hillcrest 2 at Kirby 47
- Chuckey-Doak 0 at Knox Catholic 61
- Union City 24 at Lake Co. 29
- Rockvale 22 at LaVergne 28
- Hickman Co. 21.2 at Lawrence Co. 21.1
- Riverside 23.2 at Lewis Co. 23.1
- Millington Central 17 at Liberty Tech Magnet 27
- Giles Co. 28 at Lincoln Co. 32
- Westmoreland 17 at Livingston Academy 25
- Grace Baptist Academy 25 at Lookout Valley 20
- Wayne Co. 26 at Loretto 27
- Smith Co. 23 at Macon Co. 24
- Briarcrest Christian 26.1 at Madison Academy (AL) 26
- Lausanne Collegiate 29 at Mayfield (KY) 33
- Houston Co. 27 at McEwen 19
- Battle Ground Academy 34 at McGavock 11
- Huntingdon 39 at McKenzie 18
- McMinn Co. 44 at McMinn Central 3
- Hardin Co. 21 at McNairy Central 27
- Cordova 20 at Memphis Central 24
- Sheffield 26 at Memphis Nighthawks 18
- Ridgeway 8 at Memphis University 40
- White House-Heritage 18 at Middle Tennessee Christian 34
- Sale Creek 12 at Monterey 36
- Sycamore 11 at Montgomery Central 32
- Morristown East 18 at Morristown West 35
- Summertown 14 at Mount Pleasant 28
- Covington 33 at Munford 19
- Unaka 26.2 at North Greene 26.4
- Falkner (MS) 16 at Northpoint Christian 40
- Hunters Lane 7 at Northwest 42
- Chattanooga Central 17 at Notre Dame 39
- Hardin Valley 18 at Oak Ridge 31
- Whites Creek 23 at Oakhaven 18
- Oliver Springs 19 at Oneida 20
- Oakdale 20 at Pickett Co. 25
- Nashville Overton 11 at Pope John Paul II 33
- Tipton-Rosemark Academy 37 at Potts Camp (MS) 14
- Centennial 13 at Ravenwood 45
- Carter 15 at Rhea Co. 27
- Jackson South Side 28 at Ripley 19
- Northeast 23 at Riverdale 28
- Midway 13 at Rockwood 28
- Middle College 33 at Rossville Christian Academy 17
- Elizabethton 21 at Science Hill 33
- Cumberland Co. 10 at Scott 33
- Walnut (MS) 22 at Scotts Hill 25
- Tellico Plains 21 at Sequoyah 32
- King’s Academy 18 at Seymour 33
- Franklin 27 at Siegel 18
- East Hamilton 17 at Signal Mountain 21
- Donelson Christian Academy 14 at Silverdale Academy 30
- East Nashville 25 at Smyrna 22
- Red Bank 27 at Soddy Daisy 23
- Lexington 15 at South Gibson 25
- Senatobia (MS) 35 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 13
- Trinity Christian Academy 21 at St. George’s 32
- South Fulton 27.8 at Stewart Co. 28.1
- Mount Juliet 40 at Stewarts Creek 8
- Grace Christian (Knoxville) 24 at Stone Memorial 27
- Sullivan North 26.8 at Sullivan Central 26.6
- Daniel Boone 33 at Sullivan South 25
- Independence 30 at Summit 22
- Red Boiling Springs 18 at Sunbright 32
- Meigs Co. 43 at Sweetwater 8
- South Greene 23 at Unicoi Co. 30
- DeKalb Co. 24 at Warren Co. 22
- Gordonsville 13 at Watertown 38
- Austin-East 26 at Webb 23
- Greenbrier 30 at West Creek 28
- Northview 29 at West Greene 16
- Dresden 31 at Westview 29
- Cannon Co. 29 at White Co. 21
- Station Camp 26 at White House 20
- Maryville 46 at William Blount 3
- Springfield 26 at Wilson Central 22
- Grace Christian Academy (Franklin) 26 at Zion Christian Academy 31
Saturday
- Alcoa 24 at Blackman 27 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
- Whitwell 37 at Bledsoe Co. 9
- Baylor 39 at Brainerd 4
- Bowling Green (KY) 21 at Father Ryan 24 (8:00 PM CT)
- South-Doyle 18 at Fulton 33
- Maplewood 21 at Hillsboro 27 (3:00 PM CT)
- Bearden 25 at Knoxville West 16
- Westwood 8 at Mitchell 31 (3:00 PM CT; played at Whitehaven)
- Cane Ridge 32 at Pearl-Cohn 27 (5:30 PM CT)
- Sequatchie Co. 18 at South Pittsburg 30
- Hamilton 0 at Whitehaven 66
180 games in all! If I’ve missed one, please email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best ones, from my perspective:
- Alcoa at Blackman (Saturday, 7 PM ET). It’s one thing to have two of the ten best programs in the state match up; it’s even better when Alcoa is coming off of their best season in a decade and Blackman is expected to be a serious 6A contender.
- Southaven (MS) at Houston (Friday, 7 PM CT). Houston starts the year off with a brutal back-to-back of Southaven and Memphis Central; they really need a split of these to maintain state-wide relevance. Plus, while Southaven is a good team, they went 4-7 last year and lost to Germantown and Cordova by a combined 37 points.
- Lausanne at Mayfield (KY) (Friday, 7 PM CT). As for just about any out-of-state game, it’s not a true must-win game. However: it would be really painful for Lausanne fans to lose two straight games after a 38-game win streak. Mayfield is very, very good.
- Cane Ridge at Pearl-Cohn (Saturday, 5:30 PM CT). Surprisingly, these two have only played twice before, with Cane Ridge taking both games. This one is projected to be fairly high-scoring, and while it’s not a region game for either, both could really use a huge win to start the year.
- Page at Fairview (Friday, 7 PM CT). This has one of the lowest-projected spreads of the season (Fairview is favored by 0.2 points) and has a lot at stake. As mentioned in the preview, this is the only game Page is an underdog in all season; while they’d have to win around 3-4 more coin flip games to go undefeated (not likely, but certainly possible), the 10-0 opportunity starts here. For Fairview, it’s just as big: this is one of two games projected within double digits for them all season. Win this and the Waverly Central game in Week 4, and it could be their second 10-0 season in school history.
If you’d like to view it, here’s this week’s spreadsheet. The season-long sheet is linked here.
Best of luck to all teams involved this week!
Stats by Will 