Back for another week! Thank you to everyone who’s sent this out or has told someone they know about it or, in some way, is helping publicize these projections. Last week was, uh, far from ideal: a 120-58 (67.4%) hit rate looks okay on the surface until I tell you it was a full 13 games below expectation. On the plus side, last year’s Week 1 projections went very similarly (66.7%) and every week after was 75% or above. Week 1 is simply very hard to get right, and it is what it is. As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:
Now, let’s go to the games. This week’s expected projection W-L record is 132-44 (75%), which would be a solid recovery. Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 1:
- 50-59% likely to win the game: 24-21 (53.3%)
- 60-69%: 20-14 (58.8%)
- 70-79%: 16-11 (59.3%)
- 80-89%: 20-8 (71.4%)
- 90-100%: 40-4 (90.9%)
As you can see, the coin-flip games were mostly coin flips, the slightly less coin-flip games were slightly-less coin flips…and then all of the games with fairly comfortable favorites went haywire. Poor Whitwell started out the week as a combined 45-point favorite in their two games and ended up 58 points in the hole, which sets a new record for projection error in one week. Community’s upset of Cornersville as a 42-point underdog also broke my database record for largest point spread upset, which seems significant.
This week promises to be just as fun. Week 2, though a little easier to project, still offers lots of uncertainty, with all but nine teams in the state having 48-minute sample sizes so far. There’s still a lot of variance both ways, which makes it very exciting…and also a little stressful for a projections guy. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.
Thursday
- Manassas 2 at Byhalia (MS) 41
- King’s Academy 13 at GPittman 41
- Trezevant 33 at Hamilton 13
- Chuckey-Doak 14 at Happy Valley 33
- Sycamore 30 at Hunters Lane 13
- Mitchell 29 at KIPP Collegiate 5
- Lenoir City 21 at Loudon 29 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
- Sequoyah 5 at McMinn Co. 45
- Middle College 23 at Memphis Business Academy 25
- Cocke Co. 34 at Northview 20
- Grainger 35 at Pigeon Forge 12
- McNairy Central 39 at Tishomingo Co. (MS) 11
- Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 18 at Westwood 25
Friday
- Austin-East 8 at Alcoa 44
- White Station 31 at Arlington 23
- Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 6 at Bartlett 32
- Chattanooga Christian 9 at Baylor 36
- Henry Co. 22 at Beech 28
- Ravenwood 30 at Blackman 22
- East Ridge 21 at Bledsoe Co. 22
- Freedom Prep Academy 41 at Bluff City 4
- Kirby 39 at Bolivar Central 14
- First Assembly Christian 29 at Bolton 17
- Trinity Academy Tri-Cities 24 at Boyd-Buchanan 28
- Howard Tech 24 at Brainerd 19
- Wooddale 7 at Briarcrest Christian 37
- Creek Wood 19 at Camden Central 27
- Brentwood 33 at Cane Ridge 23
- Warren Co. 30 at Cannon Co. 17
- Campbell Co. 32 at Carter 15
- Smyrna 23 at Centennial 30
- Whites Creek 21.8 at Cheatham Co. Central 22.4
- Independence 23 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 35
- Hillcrest 0 at Christian Brothers 51
- Clinton Co. (KY) 26 at Clay Co. 24
- Hardin Valley 31 at Cleveland 19
- CAK 28 at Clinton 25
- South Greene 31 at Cloudland 21
- Tullahoma 28 at Coffee Co. Central 14
- Center Hill (MS) 16 at Collierville 24
- Richland 25 at Collinwood 22
- Moore Co. 20 at Community 31
- Notre Dame 27 at Corbin (KY) 32
- Bauxite (AR) 18 at Covington 35
- Lake Co. 33 at Crockett Co. 22
- White Co. 30 at Cumberland Co. 19
- Thomas Walker (VA) 20 at Cumberland Gap 23
- Greeneville 37 at Daniel Boone 23
- Science Hill 21 at David Crockett 27 (7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV)
- Columbia Central 24 at Dickson Co. 23
- Oak Ridge 22 at Dobyns-Bennett 31
- Webb Bell Buckle 13 at Donelson Christian Academy 32
- Brighton 25 at Dyersburg 32
- Cornersville 25 at Eagleville 26
- Soddy Daisy 17 at East Hamilton 22
- Fairview 42 at East Hickman Co. 10
- Maplewood 16 at East Nashville 32
- Hillsboro 18 at Ensworth 25
- St. Benedict at Auburndale 7 at Evangelical Christian 40
- Northeast 23 at F.J. Reitz (IN) 30
- Douglass [Frederick] 13 at Fairley 37
- Knoxville West 11 at Farragut 32
- Battle Ground Academy 24 at Father Ryan 20
- Northpoint Christian 18 at Fayette Ware 21
- Portland 18 at Forrest 27
- Riverdale 24 at Franklin 21
- Stratford 18 at Franklin Road Academy 29
- Middle Tennessee Christian 12 at Friendship Christian 41
- Central 33 at Fulton 14
- Gleason 34 at Fulton City (KY) 24
- Station Camp 11 at Gallatin 36
- Cordova 21 at Germantown 26
- Hendersonville 33 at Giles Co. 25
- Smith Co. 28 at Gordonsville 21
- Mount Juliet Christian Academy 19 at Grace Baptist Academy 24
- Clarksville Academy 41 at Grace Christian Academy 15
- Northwest 32 at Greenbrier 24
- Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 15 at Greenfield 30
- South Pittsburg 46 at Grundy Co. 4
- North Greene 19 at Hancock Co. 29
- Adamsville 14 at Hardin Co. 28
- Memphis Overton 18 at Harding Academy 35
- Copper Basin 22 at Hayesville (NC) 23
- Jackson North Side 15 at Haywood 39
- Harpeth 19 at Hickman Co. 22
- Perry Co. 6 at Houston Co. 38
- Halls 34 at Humboldt 23
- Byrns [Jo] 14 at Huntland 27
- Southwind 27 at Independence (MS) 20
- Chester Co. 19 at Jackson Christian 28
- University School of Jackson 23 at Jackson South Side 18
- Morristown East 17 at Jefferson Co. 33
- Oakdale 22.3 at Jellico 21.9
- Sullivan North 15 at Johnson Co. 31
- Karns 17 at Knoxville Halls 43
- Rossview 29 at LaVergne 20
- Loretto 23 at Lawrence Co. 26
- McGavock 18 at Lebanon 23
- Riverside 22 at Lexington 13
- Pope John Paul II 28 at Lipscomb Academy 17
- Cookeville 25 at Livingston Academy 23
- Monterey 23.7 at Lookout Valley 23.8
- Fayette Academy 30 at Magnolia Heights (MS) 18
- Lincoln Co. 13 at Marshall Co. 34
- Bearden 4 at Maryville 40
- Webb 3 at McCallie 40
- Stewart Co. 23 at McEwen 29
- Tellico Plains 28 at McMinn Central 21
- Greenback 18 at Meigs Co. 33
- Memphis East 10 at Melrose 33
- Houston 24 at Memphis Central 23
- Raleigh-Egypt 0 at Memphis University 51
- Alcorn Central (MS) 26 at Middleton 35
- Liberty Tech Magnet 11 at Milan 37
- Munford 28 at Millington Central 22
- Pearl-Cohn 23 at Montgomery Bell Academy 24
- West Creek 16 at Montgomery Central 36
- William Blount 24 at Morristown West 28
- Goodpasture Christian 23 at Nashville Christian 28
- Wilson Central 24 at Nashville Overton 15
- Watertown 22 at Nolensville 29
- Kingsbury 15 at Northside (MS) 35
- Kenwood 0 at Oakland 53
- Dyer Co. 34 at Obion Co. 17
- Kingston 18 at Oliver Springs 24
- York Institute 21 at Oneida 20
- Red Bank 26 at Ooltewah 28
- Siegel 15 at Page 34
- Sheffield 0 at Peabody 51
- Sunbright 24 at Pickett Co. 26
- Silverdale Academy 22 at Polk Co. 21
- Anderson Co. 23 at Powell 32
- Hillwood 41 at RePublic 19
- Tuscola (NC) 27 at Rhea Co. 20
- Memphis Nighthawks 3 at Ripley 49
- Franklin Co. 38 at Rockvale 8
- Jackson Co. 26 at Sale Creek 18
- Dresden 23 at Scotts Hill 25
- Marion Co. 12 at Sequatchie Co. 36
- Heritage 24 at Sevier Co. 31
- Gibbs 23 at Seymour 20
- Columbia Academy 16 at Shelbyville Central 32
- Hixson 14 at Signal Mountain 33
- Fulton Co. (KY) 32 at South Fulton 28
- Grace Christian 16 at South-Doyle 37
- Summit 35 at Spring Hill 9
- Clarksville 31 at Springfield 25 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
- Craigmont 18 at St. George’s 37
- Antioch 0 at Stewarts Creek 48
- Coalfield 22.1 at Stone Memorial 22.2
- Cherokee 25 at Sullivan South 34
- Rockwood 28 at Sweetwater 16
- Rossville Christian Academy 5 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 44
- South Gibson 25 at Trinity Christian Academy 24
- Chattanooga Central 16 at Tyner Academy 34
- Cosby 31 at Unaka 19
- Hampton 19 at Unicoi Co. 28
- King Prep 6 at Union City 45
- Claiborne 20 at Union Co. 31
- DeKalb Co. 3 at Upperman 43
- Sullivan Central 24 at Volunteer 39
- Bradley Central 37 at Walker Valley 14
- Harriman 25.7 at Wartburg 25.9
- Oakhaven 25 at Washington 14
- Huntingdon 38 at Waverly Central 27
- Summertown 21 at Wayne Co. 23
- McKenzie 27 at West Carroll 21
- Macon Co. 20 at Westmoreland 19
- Gibson Co. 26 at Westview 28
- Glencliff 9 at White House 42
- East Robertson 22 at White House-Heritage 28
- Ridgeway 10 at Whitehaven 42
- Scott 23 at Whitley Co. (KY) 25
- Fayetteville 27 at Zion Christian Academy 21
Saturday
- Brentwood Academy 29 at Clearwater Academy International (FL) 22
- Highlands (KY) 19 at Knox Catholic 34
This is one of the three or four best weeks of football all season; it looks like plenty of fun. Barring weather issues, 176 games will be played this week, bringing us to 355 total. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.
- Brentwood Academy at Clearwater Academy International (FL) (Saturday, 2:30 PM ET). This is the best team in the state of Tennessee traveling to play a Florida team that went 11-0 last year and outscored its opponents by 38 points per game. Clearwater starts seven different D-1 prospects, along with a few others on the fringe. I think BA is live-streaming the game, but I don’t know for certain. Anyway, it goes without saying that it would be a good thing for the best Tennessee team to defeat a top 15 Florida team.
- Pearl-Cohn at Montgomery Bell Academy (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Pearl-Cohn demolished what was expected to be a great Cane Ridge team; MBA, meanwhile, suffered a surprise loss at Brentwood. Starting 0-2 would be pretty shocking territory for MBA to be in these days, no?
- Ravenwood at Blackman (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Blackman started off well against Alcoa, leading 14-3 right before halftime. Unfortunately for the Blaze, most play the other 24 minutes of football games, where Alcoa went on a 20-0 run to grab a huge road win. Ravenwood smoked an overmatched Centennial team, and this is their first real test with a team many believe to be a top three contender for the 6A title. Both teams badly need this win.
- Houston at Memphis Central (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Houston took on a Southaven team they’ve normally had issues with and simply blew them out from start to finish. Central, on the other hand, suffered a brutal 13-12 loss to Cordova. Last week, I wrote that Houston really needed to win at least one of its first two; now, they’re in a position to sweep a tough two-week opening slate.
- Battle Ground Academy at Father Ryan (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Both enter at 1-0, with Father Ryan picking up an impressive win at Bowling Green last Saturday. This isn’t a Region game, but a II-AA win over a II-AAA team is always useful for bragging rights.
Honorable Mentions: Hillsboro at Ensworth (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cordova at Germantown (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Anderson Co. at Powell (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Highlands (KY) vs. Knoxville Catholic (Saturday, 5:30 PM ET); Riverdale at Franklin (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Brentwood at Cane Ridge (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Knoxville West at Farragut (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).
If you’d like to view it, here’s this week’s spreadsheet. The season-long sheet is linked here.
Best of luck to all teams involved this week!
Stats by Will 