Tennessee high school football projections, Week 4

Hello to Week 4! Week 3 was my system’s best week yet, coming in at 142-30 (82.6%) and three-ish games above expectation. That puts the system at 402-124 (76.4%) through three weeks, which is about two wins below where I’d like it to be, but is pretty darn close to the goal of 77% or better after Week 3.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Onward to Week 4. Last week looked pretty rough on paper, but 36 games out of 172 (20.9%) ended with an eight-point or lower margin. Some of the games were pretty good! There were even two games that ended with the exact same 42-41 score. (Thanks to White House-Heritage, Springfield, Adamsville, and Union City for their collective services.) This week is expected to be similar to last: not many very close games with a lot of likely blowouts. Favorites are expected to go 133-34 (79.7%), which is about 0.6% lower than last week. Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 3:

• 50-59% likely to win the game: 59-42 (58.4%); 13-7 last week
• 60-69%: 68-36 (65.4%); 18-13 last week
• 70-79%: 55-30 (64.7%); 20-7 last week
• 80-89%: 78-10 (88.6%); 32-0 last week
• 90-100%: 141-7 (95.3%); 59-3 last week

Before we move on, there were four 90%+ upsets last week, all of which were pretty stunning: Boyd-Buchanan over Webb (3.6% odds of happening), Hunters Lane over Hillwood (1.7%); and Whitehaven over North Little Rock (AR) (1%). I kept double-checking to see if the Whitehaven numbers were a mistake and they weren’t; North Little Rock appears to have been massively overrated. Either way, all of these are in line with what you’d expect, minus the bizarre 70-79% underperformance. That’ll eventually regress to the mean.

Finally, on to this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

• Maryville 24.9 at Alcoa 24.6 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
• Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 20 at Manassas 14

Friday

• South-Doyle 34 at Anderson Co. 22
• Fulton 27 at Austin-East 25
• Memphis Central 26 at Bartlett 19
• Franklin-Simpson (KY) 10 at Battle Ground Academy 39
• Bradley Central 26 at Bearden 20
• Jackson North Side 32 at Bolivar Central 18
• St. Benedict at Auburndale 35 at Bolton 12
• Whitehaven 18 at Brentwood Academy 28
• Montgomery Bell Academy 15 at Briarcrest Christian 25
• Wooddale 18 at Byhalia (MS) 27
• Stone Memorial 14 at CAK 36
• Seymour 14 at Campbell Co. 34
• Lenoir City 18 at Carter 28
• Huntland 32 at Cascade 17
• Douglass [Frederick] 7 at Center Hill (MS) 37
• Baylor 46 at Chattanooga Central 1
• Morristown West 25 at Cherokee 33
• White Station 16 at Christian Brothers 30
• Unaka 10 at Claiborne 42
• Sunbright 7 at Coalfield 37
• GPittman 36 at Cocke Co. 22
• Southaven (MS) 25 at Collierville 17
• Loretto 28 at Collinwood 20
• Nashville Overton 17 at Columbia Central 29
• Cannon Co. 25 at Community 26
• Lausanne Collegiate 22 at Cordova 31
• Grace Christian Academy 5 at Cornersville 48
• Brighton 14 at Covington 39
• King Prep 17 at Craigmont 36
• South Gibson 30 at Crockett Co. 20
• Clay Co. 36 at Cumberland Co. 11
• Columbia Academy 24 at Davidson Academy 34
• McGavock 24 at Dickson Co. 17
• Ripley 19 at Dyer Co. 35
• Hardin Co. 25 at Dyersburg 30
• Red Bank 27 at East Hamilton 17
• Stewart Co. 28 at East Hickman Co. 22
• Brainerd 0 at East Nashville 48
• Daniel Boone 23 at Elizabethton 37
• Christ Presbyterian Academy 6 at Ensworth 40
• Pope John Paul II 22 at Father Ryan 23
• Trinity Christian Academy 20 at Fayette Academy 31
• Oakhaven 3 at First Assembly Christian 37
• Summit 26 at Franklin 16
• St. George’s 18 at Franklin Road Academy 35
• South Fulton 45 at Fulton City (KY) 14
• Sullivan South 23 at Gate City (VA) 29
• Oakland 42 at Germantown 7
• Sheffield 2 at Gibson Co. 39
• Halls 37 at Gleason 18
• RePublic 6 at Goodpasture Christian 48
• Friendship Christian 35 at Grace Baptist Academy 12
• Scott 19 at Grainger 25
• Oneida 29 at Greenback 15
• Portland 36 at Greenbrier 14
• Bledsoe Co. 40 at Grundy Co. 6
• Cloudland 20 at Hampton 27
• Central 35 at Hardin Valley 9
• Freedom Prep Academy 33 at Harding Academy 23
• Creek Wood 37 at Harpeth 6
• Liberty Tech Magnet 0 at Haywood 50
• Beech 24.15 at Hendersonville 24.25
• Brentwood 34 at Henry Co. 18
• William Blount 39 at Heritage 16
• Fairley 22 at Hernando (MS) 30
• Nashville Christian 40 at Hillwood 17
• Sequatchie Co. 39 at Hixson 12
• Evangelical Christian 27 at Houston 23
• Byrns [Jo] 0 at Houston Co. 38
• Tyner Academy 29 at Howard Tech 17
• White House 32 at Hunters Lane 15
• Camden Central 19 at Huntingdon 37
• Blackman 32 at Independence 24
• Clarksville Academy 23 at Jackson Christian 26
• Red Boiling Springs 8 at Jackson Co. 38
• Peabody 38 at Jackson South Side 6
• Powell 57 at Karns 3
• Hillsboro 25 at Kenwood 15
• Hillcrest 22 at KIPP Collegiate 16
• Jefferson Co. 10 at Knoxville West 33
• Adamsville 15 at Kossuth (MS) 28
• Humboldt 0 at Lake Co. 64
• Lebanon 28 at LaVergne 19
• Warren Co. 18 at Lawrence Co. 28
• Rossville Christian Academy 12 at Lee Academy (MS) 39
• East Robertson 8 at Lewis Co. 42
• Arlington 21 at Lewisburg (MS) 33
• Spring Hill 14 at Lincoln Co. 32
• Hayesville (NC) 22 at Lookout Valley 19
• Glencliff 5 at Macon Co. 40
• Pearl-Cohn 41 at Maplewood 12
• South Pittsburg 37 at Marion Co. 11
• Shelbyville Central 20 at Marshall Co. 28
• Stellar Prep (CA) 0 at McCallie 51
• Jellico 18 at McCreary Central (KY) 31
• Chester Co. 3 at McNairy Central 44
• Clinton 16 at Meigs Co. 36
• Memphis Nighthawks 15 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 29
• Kingsbury 17 at Memphis Overton 32
• Melrose 0 at Memphis University 47
• Greenfield 24 at Middle College 21
• Donelson Christian Academy 30 at Middle Tennessee Christian 19
• Cosby 13 at Midway 35
• Lexington 18 at Milan 23
• Northpoint Christian 14 at Millington Central 29
• Harriman 12 at Monterey 34
• Forrest 32 at Moore Co. 16
• Gibbs 27 at Morristown East 22
• Gallatin 23.5 at Mount Juliet 24.1
• King’s Academy 23 at Mount Juliet Christian Academy 29
• Fayetteville 20 at Mount Pleasant 28
• Twin Springs (VA) 33 at North Greene 18
• Rossview 26 at Northeast 21
• Montgomery Central 22 at Northwest 28
• Farragut 28 at Oak Ridge 21
• Wartburg 46 at Oakdale 2
• Northview 6 at Oliver Springs 36
• McMinn Co. 22 at Ooltewah 27
• Lipscomb Academy 15 at Page 27
• Hickman Co. 37 at Perry Co. 7
• Eagleville 49 at Pickett Co. 6
• Sullivan Central 24 at Pigeon Forge 28
• McMinn Central 27 at Polk Co. 19
• Pulaski Academy (AR) 30 at Ravenwood 33 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV, also on something called Stadium?)
• Mitchell 15 at Ridgeway 27
• Clarksville 39 at Rockvale 11
• Kingston 18 at Rockwood 20
• Hancock Co. 23 at Rye Cove (VA) 24
• Greeneville 33 at Science Hill 21 (7:00 PM ET, FOX 39 Tri-Cities)
• Fayette Ware 26 at Scotts Hill 13
• Loudon 45 at Sequoyah 7
• Centennial 30 at Siegel 27
• Riverdale 36 at Smyrna 12
• Cleveland 26 at Soddy Daisy 24
• West Greene 14 at South Greene 38
• Munford 21 at Southwind 28
• Springfield 34 at Station Camp 16
• Cane Ridge 21 at Stewarts Creek 34
• Chuckey-Doak 24 at Sullivan North 28
• Richland 16 at Summertown 26
• Copper Basin 20 at Tellico Plains 32
• Gordonsville 6 at Trousdale Co. 37
• Franklin Co. 16 at Tullahoma 27
• Happy Valley 29 at Unicoi Co. 16
• Washington 7 at Union City 39
• Knoxville Halls 36 at Union Co. 15
• Tipton-Rosemark Academy 10 at University School of Jackson 33
• Livingston Academy 17 at Upperman 29
• Tennessee 40 at Virginia (VA) 10
• Sullivan East 25 at Volunteer 35
• Middleton 17 at Walnut (MS) 45
• DeKalb Co. 14 at Watertown 36
• Fairview 32 at Waverly Central 28
• Riverside 32 at Wayne Co. 17
• David Crockett 34 at Webb 13
• Dresden 24 at West Carroll 28
• Cheatham Co. Central 20 at West Creek 30
• Obion Co. 13 at Westview 42
• Cookeville 34 at White Co. 18
• Sycamore 15 at White House-Heritage 32
• Westmoreland 29 at Whites Creek 14
• Signal Mountain 25 at Whitwell 21
• Antioch 0 at Wilson Central 45
• Grace Christian 30 at York Institute 22
• Sale Creek 13 at Zion Christian Academy 36

167 games this week, bringing us to 694 on the year, I believe. It looks like there’s only 21 region games, which makes last week feel like a little bit of a false start, but there’s a lot more of region play to come. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.

• Maryville at Alcoa (Thursday, 7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV). This is the Game of the Year in East Tennessee, bar none. Alcoa shocked everyone last year by winning 34-28, their first win in this crosstown series since 2010. Alcoa hasn’t lost a game since September 8, 2017 to Maryville and is the clear 3A title favorite; Maryville has demolished three overwhelmed opponents to the tune of a 138-28 total score. I can’t wait to see this one.
• Pulaski Academy (AR) at Ravenwood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV). This…..might be the lower-case game of the year in Middle Tennessee. Pulaski has one of the meanest offenses in the nation, averaging 50.3 points per game last year and winning a game 84-68 (!!!!!!!) already this season. You know who they are because they have The Coach That Never Punts. Ravenwood, meanwhile, survived a great test from Blackman 16-13 last week and has mostly looked like the serious 6A contender everyone expected them to be.
• Whitehaven at Brentwood Academy (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Whitehaven pulled off a true Upset, but BA themselves got knocked off by McCallie at home, 28-23. The ratings still see BA as the better team, but Sonny Moore is massively down on Whitehaven for reasons I don’t quite get. I wouldn’t be surprised at all by another Whitehaven win.
• Gallatin at Mount Juliet (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This game wasn’t on my radar at all to start the year, but it certainly is now. Gallatin is 3-0 after going 5-6 last year; they’ve yet to win a game by less than 21 points. Mount Juliet lost what initially looked like a stunner to Stewarts Creek in Week 1, but now looks like a quality loss to a team that has a very real shot at a 10-0 season. This isn’t a required win for either, but Mount Juliet really needs to reassert their case as a possible 6A contender.
• Beech at Hendersonville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Normally, it’s hard to find a fifth game that stands out; there’s usually 2-4 great ones and then I pick the best-looking good game. Not the case this week! This rivalry is the first game of the entire season where I’ve had to go to the hundredths to see who was favored; the projection I first received was literally Beech 24.2, Hendersonville 24.2. That alone would make this a must-watch game, even if it wasn’t between two very good teams.
• Honorable Mentions: Pope John Paul II at Father Ryan (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Evangelical Christian at Houston (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Blackman at Independence (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cleveland at Soddy-Daisy (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Shelbyville Central at Marshall County (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Farragut at Oak Ridge (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

A special Honorable Mention as a biased alumnus: Warren County won a must-win game over Rockvale last Friday, 36-35. It’s their first Region win since October 14, 2016, and I couldn’t be prouder. They’re tracking towards a three or four-win season, which sounds meager, but even 4-6 would be their best regular season record since 2007. Go Pioneers! Thanks to Bobby Rader for giving them a mention at around 12:20 AM ET on the Vol Network BYU postgame show.

If you’d like to view it, here’s this week’s spreadsheet. The season-long sheet is linked here.

Best of luck to all teams involved this week.