Tennessee high school football projections, week 11

Welcome back! Last week was our bloodiest in some time: just a 127-36 (77.9%) record, making it the least-predictable week since Week 1. Finally, some serious upset action! This brings the projections to 1279-318 (80.1%) on the season and still 82.6% from Week 5 onward. It’s been a fun, strange season of high school football.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections – which are now just a week’s worth of projections – via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Because there are so many games to get to and discuss, I’m limiting Week 10 discussion to some brief hits. 37 of 163 (22.7%) games had a final margin of eight points or fewer, though 63 (38.7%) were certifiable 30+ point blowouts. Still: there were more good games than usual. The projections could’ve done a little better, but a 14-19 record in games decided by 7 points or fewer (expected record in these games was 23-10, though it typically redounds to .500ish) meant more upsets than normal. I’ll take it.

Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 10:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 129-101 (56.1%); 13-12 last week
  • 60-69%: 166-87 (65.6%); 13-7 last week
  • 70-79%: 193-82 (70.2%); 22-13 last week
  • 80-89%: 242-27 (90%); 20-2 last week
  • 90-99%: 548-20 (96.5%); 59-2 last week

Outside of a relatively mediocre week for ~12 point favorites and another astounding one for ~18 point ones, these are still mostly performing to expectation. That’s a good sign for the reliability of the projections as they head into the playoffs.

Week 11’s games are below. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams. Here’s the difference this time: all playoff-relevant games will feature a short explainer of what different results may mean to the relevant class and region seeding. As such, this week is a little bit of a departure. Instead of an A-Z home team listing, games are listed from 1A-1 to 6A-8, with private classes after. (If nothing is listed after a game, feel free to assume that it has no effect on seeding.) The remaining non-region games will be listed last. Of the 55 regions in TSSAA football, 52 still have something to settle. Nearly every game this Friday will be important. Let’s talk about them.

Thursday

1A-8

  • Washington 36 at Bluff City 4
    • If Washington wins: They are guaranteed to make the playoffs at 5-3 in 1A-8 thanks to their win over Westwood. Depending on how MASE/Memphis East shakes out, they will either finish as the 3 or 4 seed.
    • If Bluff City wins: Westwood has a 6% chance of defeating Middle College on the road; if they do, they are the 4 seed. In any other scenario, Washington still makes the playoffs as the 4 seed.
  • Oakhaven 0 at Freedom Prep Academy 48
  • Westwood 10 at Middle College 36
    • If Westwood wins: They make the playoffs as the 4 seed, regardless of other events.
    • If Middle College wins: Washington is the 1A-8 3/4 seed, regardless of other events.

2A-8

  • KIPP Collegiate 6 at Douglass [Frederick] 36
    • If KIPP Collegiate wins AND Memphis Academy of Health and Sciences wins: Douglass is the 4 seed in 2A-8 instead of the 3.
    • All other scenarios: Douglass is the 3.
  • Trezevant 7 at Mitchell 30

3A-8

  • Wooddale 58 at King Prep 0

Non-region

  • Oneida 25 at Coalfield 13 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)

Friday

1A-2

  • Greenback 56 at Oakdale 0
  • Midway 12 at Oliver Springs 35

1A-3

  • South Pittsburg 43 at Copper Basin 8
    • If South Pittsburg wins: They are the 1A-3 winners; Copper Basin is the 2 seed.
    • If Copper Basin wins: They are the 1A-3 winners; South Pittsburg is the 2 seed.
  • Lookout Valley 15 at Whitwell 34
    • If Lookout Valley wins: They are the 1A-3 4 seed.
    • If Whitwell wins: They are the 1A-3 4 seed.

1A-4

  • Red Boiling Springs 2 at Clay Co. 48
    • If Red Boiling Springs wins: It’s obviously not likely, but in most scenarios, they’d be the 1A-4 4 seed unless Gordonsville AND Byrns [Jo] win their games. Clay Co. would fall to the 3 seed in most scenarios.
    • If Clay Co. wins: They are the 1A-4 2 seed.
  • Monterey 32 at Gordonsville 14
    • If Monterey wins: They are the 1A-4 winners. Gordonsville gets the 1A-4 3 seed.
    • If Gordonsville wins: They are the 1A-4 winners. Monterey gets the 1A-4 2 seed.
  • Byrns [Jo] 29 at Pickett Co. 14
    • If Byrns [Jo] wins: They make the playoffs as the 1A-4 4 seed.
    • If Pickett Co. wins AND Clay Co. wins: Pickett Co. makes the playoffs as the 1A-4 4 seed. In no other scenario do they make the playoffs.

1A-5

  • Richland 18 at Huntland 31
    • If Richland wins: They make the playoffs as either the 3 seed (Mount Pleasant wins) or the 2 (Moore Co. wins). Huntland would fall from the 1 seed to the 4; Cornersville wins 1A-5.
    • If Huntland wins: They are the 1A-5 champions, regardless of other events.
  • Moore Co. 20 at Mount Pleasant 31
    • If Moore Co. wins: They make the playoffs as the 1A-5 3 seed. If Richland also wins, Mount Pleasant doesn’t make the playoffs.
    • If Mount Pleasant wins: They make the playoffs as either the 2 (Richland wins) or 3 (Huntland wins) seed. Moore Co. is out.

1A-6

  • McEwen 37 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 12
    • If McEwen wins: They are the 1A-6 2 seed. Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central is either the 3 (Wayne Co. wins) or 4 (Collinwood wins) seed.
    • If Hollow-Rock Bruceton Central wins: They are the 1A-6 2 seed. McEwen is the 3 seed.
  • Middleton 28 at Perry Co. 31
  • Collinwood 26 at Wayne Co. 23
    • If Collinwood wins: They make the playoffs as either the 3 (McEwen wins) or the 4 (Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central wins) seed. Wayne Co. is out.
    • If Wayne Co. wins: They make the playoffs as the 4 seed. Collinwood is out.

1A-7

  • South Fulton 39 at Gleason 22
    • If South Fulton wins: They are the 1A-7 4 seed ONLY if Dredsen doesn’t beat Humboldt. Otherwise, they AND Gleason are out.
    • If Gleason wins: Out regardless. South Fulton, obviously, would be out.
  • West Carroll 19 at Greenfield 26
    • If West Carroll wins: They are the 1A-7 2 seed. Greenfield would fall to the 3.
    • If Greenfield wins: They are the 1A-7 2 seed. West Carroll would fall to the 3.
  • Dresden 38 at Humboldt 22
    • If Dresden wins: They are the 1A-7 4 seed, regardless of the results of other games. Humboldt would be out.
    • If Humboldt wins: It gets somewhat complicated. They’d have to root for Gleason to beat South Fulton to make the playoffs; otherwise, they’re out. Dresden would also be done.

1A-8

  • Memphis East 23 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 21
    • If Memphis East wins: They are the 1A-8 2 seed. MASE would most likely be the 4 seed unless Bluff City beats Washington.
    • If MASE wins: They are the 1A-8 2 seed. Memphis East would be the 3.

2A-1

  • Cosby 1 at Hampton 44
    • If Cosby wins: Hampton is the 2A-1 3 seed.
    • If Hampton wins: Hampton is at worst the 2A-1 2 seed; if South Greene beats Happy Valley, Hampton is the 2A-1 champion due to their tiebreaking win.
  • Happy Valley 17 at South Greene 28
    • If Happy Valley wins: They are the 2A-1 champions, regardless of other events. South Greene would be the 2A-1 3 seed.
    • If South Greene wins: They would likely be the 2A-1 2 seed, but if Cosby stuns Hampton, they would win 2A-1.

2A-2

  • Wartburg 3 at Meigs Co. 50
  • Cumberland Gap 8 at Rockwood 27
    • If Cumberland Gap wins: They are the 2A-2 3 seed, Rockwood the 4.
    • If Rockwood wins: They are the 2A-2 3 seed, Cumberland Gap the 4.

2A-3

  • Tellico Plains 13 at Bledsoe Co. 33
  • Polk Co. 0 at Tyner Academy 46

2A-4

  • Westmoreland 29 at Cascade 16
    • If Westmoreland wins: They are the 2A-4 4 seed no matter what.
    • If Cascade wins: They are the 2A-4 4 seed no matter what.
  • Jackson Co. 0 at Trousdale Co. 46
    • If Jackson Co. wins: They can’t make the playoffs, but they can knock Trousdale Co. down to a 3 seed.
    • If Trousdale Co. wins AND East Robertson wins: They win 2A-4. Otherwise, they’re the 2 seed.
  • East Robertson 14 at Watertown 38
    • If East Robertson wins: They are the 2A-4 2 seed. They win 2A-4 ONLY if Jackson Co. defeats Trousdale Co. Watertown falls to either a 2 or 3 seed depending on other events.
    • If Watertown wins: They win 2A-4. East Robertson is the 3 seed.

2A-5

  • Loretto 17 at Eagleville 37
    • If Loretto wins: They are the 2A-5 4 seed. Eagleville is out of the playoffs.
    • If Eagleville wins: They are the 2A-5 3 seed; Loretto is out.
  • Lewis Co. 19 at Forrest 30
    • If Lewis Co. wins: They win 2A-5; Forrest can fall no further than the 2 seed.
    • If Forrest wins: They win 2A-5; Lewis Co. could either be the 2 seed (either a Community win OR a Summertown/Eagleville combo) or the 3 (Summertown and Loretto win).
  • Community 8 at Summertown 35
    • If Community wins: Summertown is the 2A-5 4 seed.
    • If Summertown wins: They are either the 2 seed (Forrest and Loretto win), the 3 (Lewis Co. and Loretto win), or the 4 (all other scenarios).

2A-6

  • Hickman Co. 9 at Houston Co. 30
    • If Hickman Co. wins: They are the 2A-6 3 seed. Houston Co. is the 4.
    • If Houston Co. wins: They are at least the 2A-6 2 seed; they win 2A-6 outright if Riverside beats Waverly Central.
  • East Hickman Co. 19 at Scotts Hill 25
  • Riverside 23 at Waverly Central 31
    • If Riverside wins: They are at least the 2A-6 2 seed if Houston Co. also wins. If Hickman Co. wins, they’d be the 2A-6 champions. Waverly would either fall to the 2 seed with a Hickman Co. win or the 3 seed if Houston Co. wins.
    • If Waverly Central wins: They are the 2A-6 champions. Riverside is the 3 seed.

2A-7

  • Union City 34 at Halls 15
    • If Union City wins: They are at least the 2A-7 3 seed and almost certainly the 2, assuming a Peabody win over Gibson Co.
    • If Halls wins: Union City is the 2A-7 4 seed.
  • Adamsville 21 at McKenzie 22
    • If Adamsville wins: They make the 2A-7 playoffs and can rise as high as the 2 seed if Halls also wins. McKenzie misses the playoffs if Halls wins OR in a Union City/Gibson Co. combo. However, they can still make it as the 4 seed with a Peabody/Union City combo.
    • If McKenzie wins: They are in as either the 2 seed (Halls wins), the 3 (Peabody and Union City win), or the 4 (Union City and Gibson Co. win). Adamsville only makes it as the 4 seed with a Peabody/Union City combo.
  • Gibson Co. 7 at Peabody 40
    • If Gibson Co. wins: They are the 2A-7 2 seed.
    • If Peabody wins: Nothing changes for them, but this result affects everyone else.

2A-8

  • Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 12 at Fairley 30
    • If MAHS wins: They are the 2A-8 4 seed unless KIPP Collegiate wins on Thursday, then they’re the 3.
    • If Fairley wins: Nothing changes for them; MAHS is the 4 seed.
  • Manassas 13 at Hillcrest 26

3A-1

  • North Greene 18 at Claiborne 33
  • Unicoi Co. 30 at Johnson Co. 18
    • If Unicoi Co. wins: They are the 3A-1 2 seed; Johnson Co. is the 3.
    • If Johnson Co. wins: They are the 3A-1 2 seed; Unicoi Co. is the 3.
  • Chuckey-Doak 32 at West Greene 21

3A-2

  • Northview 1 at Austin-East 46
  • Kingston 13 at GPittman 31
    • If Kingston wins: They are the 3A-2 3 seed; GPittman is the 4.
    • If GPittman wins: They are the 3A-2 3 seed; Kingston is the 4.
  • Scott 26 at Pigeon Forge 15

3A-3

  • Brainerd 20 at McMinn Central 27
  • Loudon 19 at Red Bank 32
    • If Loudon wins: They are the 3A-3 champions. Red Bank is the 2 seed.
    • If Red Bank wins: They are the 3A-3 champions. Loudon is the 2 seed.
  • Signal Mountain 23 at Sweetwater 24
    • If Signal Mountain wins: They are the 3A-3 3 seed, Sweetwater the 4.
    • If Sweetwater wins: They are the 3A-3 3 seed, Signal Mountain the 4.

3A-4

  • York Institute 21 at Cannon Co. 28
    • If York Institute wins: They are the 3A-4 4 seed; Cannon Co. is out.
    • If Cannon Co. wins: They are the 3A-4 4 seed; York Institute is out.
  • Upperman 35 at Sequatchie Co. 13
    • If Upperman wins: They are the 3A-4 champions; Sequatchie Co. is the 3 seed.
    • If Sequatchie Co. wins: They are the 3A-4 champions; Upperman is the 2 seed.
  • Grundy Co. 9 at Smith Co. 44
    • If Grundy Co. wins: Smith Co. falls to the 3 seed. I don’t think anything else is affected.
    • If Smith Co. wins: They are the 2 seed, regardless of other events.

3A-5

  • RePublic 0 at East Nashville 57
    • If RePublic wins: Hell freezes over. Also, it could cause East Nashville to fall to the 4 seed if Giles Co. also pulls off a stunner. Any other result and they’re the 3 seed.
    • If East Nashville wins: 3A-5 3 seed.
  • Giles Co. 12 at Pearl-Cohn 52
    • If Giles Co. wins: Paired with a RePublic stunner, it causes East Nashville to fall to the 4 seed. Any other event and East is the 3.
  • Whites Creek 1 at Stratford 46

3A-6

  • Stewart Co. 18 at Fairview 34
  • Cheatham Co. Central 18 at Harpeth 24
  • Camden Central 25 at Sycamore 21
    • If Camden Central wins: They are the 3A-6 2 seed, Sycamore the 3.
    • If Sycamore wins: They are the 3A-6 2 seed, Camden Central the 3.

3A-7

This one is wild because none of the four teams involved have a clear, precise rooting interest.

  • South Gibson 43 at Bolivar Central 6
  • Covington 27 at McNairy Central 23
    • If Covington wins: They make the 3A-7 playoffs and can be the 2 seed (Westview wins) or the 3 (Milan wins). McNairy Central makes it as the 4 seed if Westview wins, but misses the playoffs with a Milan win.
    • If McNairy Central wins: They are no worse than the 3 seed (Westview wins) and can be the 2 (Milan wins). Covington still makes it as the 4 seed with a Milan win, but is out with a Westview victory.
  • Milan 28 at Westview 31
    • If Milan wins: Everything above applies to this game. Milan is no worse than the 3 seed (McNairy wins) and becomes the 2 with a Covington victory. Westview is either the 4 seed (Covington wins) or out entirely (McNairy wins).
    • If Westview wins: Same thing. They’re either the 3 seed (Covington wins) or the 2 (McNairy wins). Milan is the 4 seed with a McNairy win, but is out with a Covington victory.

3A-8

  • Sheffield 11 at Raleigh-Egypt 29
    • If Sheffield wins: They are the 3A-8 3 seed, Raleigh-Egypt the 4.
    • If Raleigh-Egypt wins: They are the 3A-8 3 seed, Sheffield the 4.

4A-1

  • Union Co. 20 at Grainger 32
    • If Union Co. wins: They are the 4A-1 4 seed. Grainger is out.
    • If Grainger wins: They are the 4A-1 4 seed. Union Co. is out.
  • Elizabethton 53 at Sullivan Central 6
  • Greeneville 54 at Sullivan East 2

4A-2

  • Sequoyah 0 at Anderson Co. 65
  • East Ridge 31 at Hixson 19
    • If East Ridge wins: They are the 4A-2 4 seed. Hixson would be out.
    • If Hixson wins: They are the 4A-2 4 seed. East Ridge would be out.
  • East Hamilton 21 at Howard Tech 18
    • If East Hamilton wins: They are the 4A-2 2 seed, Howard Tech the 3.
    • If Howard Tech wins: They are the 4A-2 2 seed, East Hamilton the 3.

4A-3

  • DeKalb Co. 41 at Cumberland Co. 4
    • If Cumberland Co. wins AND Macon Co. wins: DeKalb Co. falls to the 3 seed and Macon Co. wins 4A-3.
    • All other scenarios: Livingston Academy wins 4A-3, DeKalb is the 2 seed, Macon Co. the 3, Stone Memorial the 4.
  • Livingston Academy 32 at Macon Co. 10
    • See above.

4A-4

  • Spring Hill 19 at Lawrence Co. 25
  • Nolensville 20 at Marshall Co. 24 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
    • If Nolensville wins: They win 4A-4. Marshall Co. finishes as the 2 seed.
    • If Marshall Co. wins: They win 4A-4. Nolensville finishes as the 2 seed.
  • Maplewood 13 at Tullahoma 29
    • If Maplewood wins: They are the 4A-4 3 seed. Tullahoma would be the 4.
    • If Tullahoma wins: They are the 4A-4 3 seed. Maplewood would be the 4.

4A-5

  • Springfield 20 at Creek Wood 30
    • If Springfield wins: They are the 4A-5 champions. Depending on the result of White House-Heritage/Montgomery Central, Creek Wood is either the 2 seed (WHH win) or the 3 (Montgomery win).
    • If Creek Wood wins: Same scenario – Creek Wood wins 4A-5, Springfield is either the 2 or the 3.
  • White House 34 at Greenbrier 20
  • White House-Heritage 22 at Montgomery Central 25
    • If White House-Heritage wins: They’re in the playoffs as the 3 seed. Montgomery Central would be staying at home for the postseason.
    • If Montgomery Central wins: This is kind of wild: Montgomery Central would be the 2 seed and would get a first-round home game. WHH would be out.

4A-6

  • Jackson South Side 16 at Jackson North Side 30
    • If Jackson South Side wins: They are the 4A-6 3 seed. North Side would be the 4.
    • If Jackson North Side wins: They are the 4A-6 3 seed. South Side would be the 4.
  • Chester Co. 0 at Lexington 39
  • Hardin Co. 36 at Liberty Tech Magnet 9

4A-7

  • Crockett Co. 35 at Dyersburg 19
    • If Crockett Co. wins: They’re the 4A-7 2 seed; Dyersburg is the 4.
    • If Dyersburg wins: Here’s a wild one: their seed depends on the Lake Co./Ripley game due to opponent records. If Lake Co. wins AND Dyersburg wins, they’re the 4 seed and Crockett stays the 2. If Ripley and Dyersburg win, Dyersburg jumps to a 3 seed as Crockett falls to the 4. Got that?
  • Haywood 41 at Obion Co. 10

4A-8

  • Craigmont 7 at Fayette Ware 38
    • If Craigmont wins: They’re in the playoffs regardless, to my knowledge, but this bumps them up to a 3 seed IF Bolton wins. If they don’t, they’re the 4 seed. Fayette Ware, most likely, finishes as a 2 seed, but would fall to a 4 if Bolton won.
    • If Fayette Ware wins: They’re at least the 2 seed no matter what. However, a Bolton win over Millington makes them 4A-8 champs. Craigmont is the 4 seed regardless.
  • Bolton 5 at Millington Central 42
    • If Bolton wins: Bolton would lock themselves into a top 2 seed, and if Craigmont pulled a stunner, they’d win 4A-8. If not, they’re still the 2. Millington would fall to the 2 seed in the first scenario and the 3 in the second.
    • If Millington wins: They’re 4A-8 champions. Bolton would be the 3 seed.

5A-1

  • Daniel Boone 35 at Cherokee 27
    • If Daniel Boone wins: They’re the 5A-1 2 seed. Cherokee is the 4. This also bumps David Crockett down to a 3 seed.
    • If Cherokee wins: Two scenarios, and we’ll start with the easiest one: David Crockett wins. This means Cherokee’s the 3 and Daniel Boone is the 4. Here’s the upset: Morristown East wins. Cherokee finishes as the 2 seed with a home game, Daniel Boone is a 3, Morristown East is in, and David Crockett is out entirely.
  • Volunteer 34 at Cocke Co. 33
  • Morristown East 11 at David Crockett 39
    • If Morristown West wins: They are in ONLY if Cherokee also wins. If that doesn’t happen, they’re out. 
    • If David Crockett wins: They’re in and are no worse than the 3 seed. A Cherokee win moves them up to a 2.

5A-2

  • Sevier Co. 17 at Carter 28
  • Central 29 at Gibbs 15
    • If Central wins: They lock themselves in as the 5A-2 2 seed behind South-Doyle. The easiest scenario here for Gibbs is that Knoxville Halls wins, which cements Gibbs as the 4 seed. If Seymour wins….well, even TSSAA has no idea – they’ve just got two question marks past South-Doyle and Central.
    • If Gibbs wins: They are in the playoffs, and if Seymour were to win, would rise as high as the 2 seed. Central can fall no further than the 3.
  • Seymour 15 at Knoxville Halls 31
    • If Seymour wins: A Gibbs win combined with this means Seymour is in and Halls is out. A Central win and, again, it gets weird. I don’t know how that shakes out.
    • If Halls wins: They’re the 5A-2 3 seed and Seymour is out.

5A-3

  • Karns 28 at Clinton 35
    • If Karns wins: Already it gets weird. Karns makes the playoffs as the 4 seed IF Knoxville West AND Oak Ridge win their games. This is a pretty likely scenario, but it requires a Karns upset to make it happen.
    • If Clinton wins: Karns is out and Fulton sneaks in as the 4 seed.
  • Oak Ridge 34 at Fulton 17
    • If Oak Ridge wins: They’re locked in as the 5A-3 3 seed. As described above, Fulton would need a Clinton win to make the 5A playoffs.
    • If Fulton wins: They’re the 5A-3 3 seed. Oak Ridge would be the 4.
  • Campbell Co. 3 at Knoxville West 44
    • If Campbell Co. wins: They make the playoffs only if Karns AND Oak Ridge win. All other scenarios mean their postseason demise.
    • If Knoxville West wins: Campbell Co. is out; West is already locked in as the 2 seed.

5A-4

  • Walker Valley 16 at Soddy Daisy 33
    • This one’s simple: a Walker Valley win means they’re the 5A-4 2 seed, a Rhea County region title, and a Soddy Daisy 3 seed. A Soddy Daisy win means a Region championship, Rhea Co. as the 2 seed, and Walker Valley the 3.

5A-5

  • Shelbyville Central 35 at Columbia Central 18
    • If Shelbyville Central wins: They’re the 5A-5 2 seed and Columbia Central the 4.
    • If Columbia Central wins: They’re either the 4 seed (if Summit wins) or the 3 (Lincoln Co. wins). Shelbyville is either the 2 (Summit wins) or the 3 (Lincoln Co. wins).
  • Summit 34 at Lincoln Co. 13
    • If Summit wins: They’re in the playoffs and are the 3 seed. Also, they factor into the Shelbyville/Columbia game as seen above.
    • If Lincoln Co. wins: They need Columbia Central to win to make the playoffs as the 4 seed and bump Summit out of the playoffs. Otherwise, this is a meaningless-but-nice win. 
  • Franklin Co. 7 at Page 40

5A-6

  • Glencliff 0 at Gallatin 64
  • Beech 49 at Hillwood 9
  • Hillsboro 34 at Hunters Lane 12
    • If Hillsboro wins: They’re the 5A-6 3 seed. Hunters Lane would be the 4.
    • If Hunters Lane wins: They’re the 5A-6 3 seed. Hillsboro would be the 4.

5A-7

  • West Creek 17 at Clarksville 40
    • If West Creek wins: They need a Dyer Co. win to make the playoffs. Otherwise, donezo.
  • Kenwood 4 at Dyer Co. 38
    • If Dyer Co. wins: They only factor into this due to potentially helping West Creek sneak in. Otherwise, they’re locked into the 2 seed.
  • Henry Co. 43 at Northwest 9

5A-8

  • Ridgeway 29 at Kirby 26
    • If Ridgeway wins: Ridgeway literally can finish anywhere from 1st to 4th on Friday night, though a win keeps them from falling below the 3 seed. Southwind/Houston factors into this due to overall record; if Southwind pulls a surprise, Ridgeway is the 3 seed. If Houston and Munford win, Ridgeway is the 2 seed. If Kingsbury pulls off a stunner, Ridgeway is the 5A-8 champion. Also, Kirby is locked in as the 4 seed.
    • If Kirby wins: They’re the 5A-8 3 seed and Ridgeway the 4.
  • Brighton 30 at Memphis Overton 22
  • Kingsbury 2 at Munford 49
    • If Kingsbury wins: Unlikely, obviously, but this hands 5A-8 to Ridgeway and locks Munford in as the 3.
    • If Munford wins: They can finish either first or second. A Southwind/Ridgeway combo: 2 seed. Kirby wins: 2 seed. Houston/Ridgeway combo? 5A-8 champions.

6A-1

  • Jefferson Co. 14 at Farragut 32
    • If Jefferson Co. wins: They can’t make it, but they can screw up the field a little. Here’s the combos that still allow Farragut to make it as the 4 seed: Bearden/Morristown West wins or Science Hill/Hardin Valley wins. A Bearden/Hardin Valley combo puts Farragut on the outside looking in.
    • If Farragut wins: They’re in, and can rise as high as the 2 seed if Bearden wins, but would likely finish as the 3.
  • Hardin Valley 34 at Morristown West 14
    • If Hardin Valley wins: They become huge Patriots fans. They’re either the 3 seed (Jefferson Co./Science Hill win) or 4 (Jefferson Co./Bearden) just by virtue of a JeffCo win. Otherwise, a Farragut win keeps them out.
    • If Morristown West wins: I *think* it keeps Farragut in no matter what.
  • Bearden 17 at Science Hill 28
    • If Bearden wins: They can finish as high as the 2 seed depending on a Jefferson Co. win. Regardless, they’d be in under any circumstance that isn’t a Jefferson Co./Hardin Valley combo.
    • If Science Hill wins: They win 6A-1. Depending on the results of the other two games, Hardin Valley (JeffCo/HVA combo) or Bearden (anything else) is in.

6A-2

  • Ooltewah 26 at Cleveland 28
    • If Ooltewah wins: They’re in as the 4 seed, I think, unless I’ve missed something. Cleveland would be out.
    • If Cleveland wins: They become the biggest Lenoir City fans on the planet. Why? Because William Blount beat Cleveland and holds the tiebreaker. If Lenoir City wins, Cleveland is in. If WB wins, Cleveland is out.
  • Heritage 0 at Maryville 66
  • Bradley Central 23.27 at McMinn Co. 23.28
    • Look at that score! 
    • If Bradley Central wins: They’re locked in as the 6A-2 2 seed. McMinn Co. would fall to the 3.
    • If McMinn Co. wins: They’re locked in as the 6A-2 2 seed. Bradley Central would be the 3.

6A-3

  • Cookeville 20 at Blackman 31
    • If Cookeville wins: They’re likely the 3 seed, Blackman the 4. However: if Coffee Co. also wins, Cookeville is the 2 and Blackman the 3.
    • If Blackman wins: They’re the 2 seed no matter what. Cookeville would be the 4.
  • Warren Co. 0 at Oakland 51
  • Coffee Co. Central 9 at Riverdale 41
    • If Coffee Co. Central wins: Riverdale falls to the 4 seed.
    • If Riverdale wins: They either finish as the 3 seed (Blackman wins) or the 4 (Cookeville wins). It may not be fun, but they probably should root for Blackman.
  • Siegel 29 at Rockvale 19
    • The winner doesn’t go 0-10.

6A-4

  • Mount Juliet 24 at Hendersonville 22
    • If Mount Juliet wins: They win 6A-4. Hendersonville can finish as the 2 seed (Rossview wins), the 3 (Lebanon AND Station Camp win), or the 4 (Lebanon AND Wilson Central win).
    • If Hendersonville wins: They win 6A-4. Mount Juliet is the 2 seed.
  • Lebanon 24 at Rossview 18
    • If Lebanon wins: Well, here you go: they can finish as the 2 seed (Mount Juliet AND Station Camp win), the 3 (Mount Juliet AND Wilson Central win or Hendersonville AND Station Camp win), or the 4 (Hendersonville AND Wilson Central win).
    • If Rossview wins: They’re in the playoffs as the 4 seed. Lebanon is out.
  • Wilson Central 32 at Station Camp 9
    • If Wilson Central wins: They either finish as the 2 seed (Mount Juliet AND Lebanon win) or the 3 (Hendersonville AND Lebanon win).
    • If Station Camp wins: Wilson Central is the 4 seed.

6A-5

  • LaVergne 12 at Cane Ridge 44
    • If LaVergne wins: They’re in the playoffs as the 6A-5 4 seed only if McGavock loses.
  • Nashville Overton 17 at McGavock 23
    • If Nashville Overton wins: McGavock is out of the playoffs and LaVergne is in.
    • If McGavock wins: They’re the 6A-5 4 seed.
  • Stewarts Creek 30 at Smyrna 17
    • If Stewarts Creek wins: They’re the 6A-5 2 seed. Smyrna falls to the 3.
    • If Smyrna wins: They’re the 6A-5 2 seed. Stewarts Creek falls to the 3.

6A-6

  • Brentwood 42 at Centennial 16
    • If Centennial wins: They’re the 6A-6 4 seed if they win and Franklin loses. All other scenarios result in them missing the 6A playoffs.
  • Dickson Co. 5 at Franklin 34
    • If Dickson Co. wins: Franklin is still in the playoffs as long as Centennial doesn’t win.
    • If Franklin wins: 6A-6 4 seed.
  • Independence 20 at Ravenwood 35
    • If Independence wins: They are the 6A-6 2 seed. Ravenwood finishes as the 3.
    • If Ravenwood wins: They are the 6A-6 2 seed. Independence finishes as the 3.

6A-7

  • Bartlett 22 at Collierville 23
    • If Bartlett wins: They’re the 6A-7 2 seed. Collierville is the 4 seed.
    • If Collierville wins: They are either the 2 seed (Cordova wins) or the 3 seed (Arlington wins) depending on the Arlington/Cordova result. Likewise, Bartlett is either the 3 seed (Cordova wins) or the 4 (Arlington wins).
  • Arlington 23 at Cordova 30
    • If Arlington wins: They’re the 6A-7 2 seed and Cordova is out of the playoffs.
    • If Cordova wins: My understanding is that they make the playoffs only with a Collierville win to pair with their own. Otherwise, Arlington is the 3 seed.

6A-8

  • White Station 31 at Germantown 18
    • If White Station wins: 6A-8 2 seed, Germantown 4.
    • If Germantown wins: Still the 4 seed unless Memphis Central wins. Then they jump to the 3 seed.
  • Memphis Central 13 at Whitehaven 33
    • If Memphis Central wins: They’re the 3 seed unless Germantown wins – then, out of nowhere, they win 6A-8. Whitehaven falls to the 2 seed.
    • If Whitehaven wins: They’re the 6A-8 champions. Memphis Central is the 3 seed.

II-A East

  • Grace Baptist Academy 30 at Grace Christian Academy 22
    • If Grace Baptist wins: They’re in the playoffs regardless, but a win cements them as the East 6 seed. Grace Christian would stay the 8 seed.
    • If Grace Christian wins: They would be the 7 seed with a Webb School win to pair with their own; otherwise, they’re the 8 seed. Grace Baptist would be the 8 seed if Webb wins; if not, I believe they’re still the 6.
  • Webb Bell Buckle 14 at Middle Tennessee Christian 36
    • If Webb Bell Buckle wins: They’re the East 6 seed. MTCS either finishes as the 4 seed (Grace Christian and DCA win) or the 5 (MJCA wins).
    • If Middle Tennessee Christian wins: They’re the East 4 seed. Webb would be the 7.
  • Donelson Christian Academy 30 at Mount Juliet Christian Academy 14
    • If DCA wins: They’re the East 3 seed, regardless of any other event. MJCA would be the 5.
    • If MJCA wins: They’re the East 3 seed, regardless of any other event. DCA would fall to 4th.

II-A West

This one gets nutty quick. I can’t give you all of the scenarios possible here, because some of them lead to the bottom three seeds being a mystery. That’s the fun with large regions.

  • University School of Jackson 34 at Clarksville Academy 13
    • If USJ wins: Win or lose, they’re locked into the West 3 seed. Clarksville Academy would be out, as they lost to Jackson Christian (the other 1-6 team).
    • If Clarksville Academy wins: It gets weird. In several scenarios, this cements Clarksville Academy as the West 7 seed. In others – especially ones dependent on the outcome of Fayette/Columbia – TSSAA offers no resolution. All I can tell you is that a win seems beneficial to their playoff outlook.
  • Fayette Academy 25 at Columbia Academy 23
    • If Fayette Academy wins: It locks them in as the West 4 seed. Columbia Academy would be the 5. This result also factors into the lower-tier standings in ways that require more words than I have.
    • If Columbia Academy wins: They’re the West 4 seed and Fayette the 5. Simple enough.
  • Jackson Christian 17 at Davidson Academy 43
    • If Jackson Christian wins: TSSAA offers no serious resolution on this, so whatever: I would imagine that they’re in as some seed. If USJ wins, period, they’re in. Davidson Academy is the West 2 seed no matter what happens.
    • If Davidson Academy wins: They’re the West 2 seed. Jackson Christian is 100% in as the 8 seed as long as USJ wins; if they don’t, I don’t know what happens.
  • Nashville Christian 36 at Trinity Christian Academy 10
    • If Nashville Christian wins: Win or lose, they’re the II-A West champions. Dependent on the result of other games, this either locks Trinity in as the West 7 seed (any sort of USJ win) or tosses them into the Mystery Zone (Clarksville Academy wins).
    • If Trinity wins: They’re locked in as the West 6 seed. Nashville Christian, of course, is the 1 seed regardless of what happens.

II-AA East

  • Webb 22 at CAK 27
    • If Webb wins: They’re the East 4 seed. CAK is the 5.
    • If CAK wins: They can finish no lower than the 4 seed, and that’s only if Grace Christian wins. If Boyd-Buchanan wins, they’re either the 3 seed (Chattanooga Christian wins) or the 2 (Silverdale wins). Webb would be the 5 seed.
  • Boyd-Buchanan 24 at Grace Christian 30
    • If Boyd-Buchanan wins: They’re at least the East 2 seed if Chattanooga Christian also wins. If an upset happens and Silverdale wins, Boyd-Buchanan is the II-AA East champion. Grace could finish second (Silverdale/Webb combo), third (Silverdale/CAK combo OR Webb/Chattanooga Christian), or fourth (Chattanooga Christian/CAK).
    • If Grace Christian wins: They are the II-AA East champions. Boyd-Buchanan would be the 3 seed.
  •  Chattanooga Christian 34 at Silverdale Academy 12
    • If Chattanooga Christian wins: They are the II-AA East champions. That’s right – three different teams are going into Friday night with the expectation that they can win this region at the end of the night. Cool! Silverdale would be the 6 seed.
    • If Silverdale wins: They’re the 6 seed no matter what, but this would knock Chattanooga Christian down to either a 3 seed (Webb wins) or a 4 (CAK wins).

II-AA Middle

  • Christ Presbyterian Academy 26 at Franklin Road Academy 25
    • If CPA wins: They are II-AA Middle champions. FRA either finishes as the 2 seed (BGA wins) or the 3 (Lipscomb wins).
    • If FRA wins: They are II-AA Middle champions. CPA is the 2 seed.
  • Battle Ground Academy 21 at Lipscomb Academy 22
    • If BGA wins: They are the II-AA Middle 3 seed. Lipscomb is the 4.
    • If Lipscomb wins: They are either the 3 seed (FRA wins) or the 2 (CPA wins). BGA, under either result, is the 4.

II-AA West

  • First Assembly Christian 0 at Evangelical Christian 45
    • If FACS wins: They win II-AA West. ECS would be the 2 seed.
    • If ECS wins: They win II-AA West. FACS would finish as the 2 seed with a St. George’s win and the 3 seed if Lausanne wins.
  • Northpoint Christian 23 at Harding Academy 25
    • If Northpoint wins: They’re the II-AA West 5 seed. Harding Academy would be the 6.
    • If Harding Academy wins: II-AA West 5 seed. Northpoint 6 seed.
  • Lausanne Collegiate 38 at St. George’s 22
    • If Lausanne wins: They finish second in II-AA West. St. George’s would be the 4 seed.
    • If St. George’s wins: They finish third in II-AA West. Lausanne would be the 4 seed.

II-AAA East

This one is fun because of one specific circumstance. You’ll see it shortly.

  • Baylor 21.1 at Brentwood Academy 20.8
    • If Baylor wins: They’re locked in as the II-AAA East 2 seed with any victory. Brentwood Academy still makes the playoffs as either the 3 seed (Father Ryan/McCallie wins) or the 4 seed (Father Ryan/Ensworth OR Knox Catholic/McCallie). However, under one very specific pairing of wins – Ensworth/Knox Catholic – they’re out, snapping their four-year title streak. If you’re a BA fan, you’ve got to be rooting like crazy for McCallie, right?
    • If Brentwood Academy wins: Safely in as the II-AAA East 2 seed. Baylor would be the 3.
  • Father Ryan 10 at Knox Catholic 36
    • If Father Ryan wins: It ends Knox Catholic’s playoff hopes; under no set of other outcomes would they make it, to my knowledge.
    • If Knox Catholic wins: Happy outcomes first: they are the 3 seed if Baylor and McCallie win and the 4 seed if Baylor and Ensworth win. If Brentwood Academy defeats Baylor, Catholic is out, as they do not win a tiebreaker with Ensworth.
  • Ensworth 12 at McCallie 26
    • If Ensworth wins: They’re in the playoffs as the 3 seed. McCallie is the II-AAA East champion, win or lose.
    • If McCallie wins: Again, they’re the 1 seed no matter what. However: it gets spicy fast for Ensworth. As long as any result other than a Baylor/Knox Catholic combo happens, they’re in as the II-AAA East 4 seed. If those two teams win, their season is over. Ensworth should be rooting for Brentwood Academy, even though their own team winning would be a disaster for BA.

II-AAA West

  • Memphis University 20 at Briarcrest Christian 25
    • If MUS wins: They’re the II-AAA West champions. Briarcrest would be the 2 seed.
    • If Briarcrest wins: They’re the II-AAA West champions. MUS would either be the 2 seed (Christian Brothers wins) or the 3 (MBA wins).
  • Christian Brothers 13 at Montgomery Bell Academy 26
    • If Christian Brothers wins: They’re the II-AAA West 3 seed. MBA would be the 4.
    • If MBA wins: They’re the II-AAA West 3 seed. Christian Brothers would be the 4.
  • Pope John Paul II 38 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 11

Non-region

  • Unaka 19 at Sunbright 32
  • Fayetteville 38 at Sale Creek 7
  • Cloudland 22 at Sullivan North 27
  • Melrose 40 at Hamilton 4
  • Dobyns-Bennett 25 at Alcoa 28
  • Friendship Christian 30 at Stone Memorial 19
  • Lake Co. 36 at Ripley 21
  • Sullivan South 14 at Tennessee 39
  • Powell 27 at South-Doyle 23
  • William Blount 36 at Lenoir City 16
  • Marion Co. 2 at Rhea Co. 44
  • Northeast 38 at Antioch 10
  • Southwind 11 at Houston 38
  • Jellico 8 at Berea (KY) 42
  • Goodpasture Christian 27 at White Co. 28
  • Cornersville 30 at Zion Christian Academy 18

Alright! That’s over 5,600 words to this point on 168 total football games. I don’t know if you need any additional analysis. Over the course of the season, this has traditionally been the space where I talk about five or so games that stand out. Let’s make it different: here’s a list of every game where a Region title and at least two rounds, if not more, of home field advantage is at stake. All of the following games are being played Friday night at either 7:30 ET for Eastern Time Zone teams or 7:00 CT for Central Time Zone teams.

  • South Pittsburg at Copper Basin (1A-3)
  • Monterey at Gordonsville (1A-4)
  • Cosby at Hampton (2A-1)
  • Happy Valley at South Greene (2A-1)
  • Jackson Co. at Trousdale Co. (2A-4)
  • East Robertson at Watertown (2A-4)
  • Lewis Co. at Forrest (2A-5)
  • Hickman Co. at Houston Co. (2A-6)
  • Riverside at Waverly Central (2A-6)
  • Loudon at Red Bank (3A-3)
  • Upperman at Sequatchie Co. (3A-4)
  • DeKalb Co. at Cumberland Co. (4A-3)
  • Livingston Academy at Macon Co. (4A-3)
  • Nolensville at Marshall Co. (4A-4)
  • Springfield at Creek Wood (4A-5)
  • Craigmont at Fayette Ware (4A-8)
  • Bolton at Millington Central (4A-8)
  • Walker Valley at Soddy Daisy (5A-4)
  • Ridgeway at Kirby (5A-8)
  • Kingsbury at Munford (5A-8)
  • Bearden at Science Hill (6A-1)
  • Mount Juliet at Hendersonville (6A-4)
  • Memphis Central at Whitehaven (6A-8)
  • Boyd-Buchanan at Grace Christian (II-AA East)
  • Chattanooga Christian at Silverdale Academy (II-AA East)
  • Christ Presbyterian Academy at Franklin Road Academy (II-AA Middle)
  • First Assembly Christian at Evangelical Christian (II-AA West)
  • Memphis University at Briarcrest Christian (II-AAA West)

Collectively, these are the Games of the Week. You can view their projections above, of course, but also either at this link or right here:

Best of luck to all teams involved in the madness this week! I expect my initial 2019 TSSAA Playoff Projections to be up by next Wednesday, with a full slate of first-round projections out Friday morning. Thanks for reading.

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