Eight Games, Pt. 5: Sweet Virginia

After the 2009-10 season, it seemed like Tennessee’s future as a basketball program had never been brighter. They were coming off the longest postseason run in school history; the two winningest seasons in school history took place over two of the previous three seasons. Tennessee had a chance to establish themselves as something close to one of the 15 best programs in college basketball, possibly even top ten. This was a status the program hadn’t really reached consistently since Bernard King and Ernie Grunfeld were on campus. So, yeah, Tennessee basketball was in its best place in 30+ years.

In fall 2008, Bruce Pearl hosted a small gathering at his Knoxville home. At that home were several key figures, including an Ohio State point guard that would grow to be perhaps the most pivotal figure in modern Tennessee basketball. He never played a minute in orange.

Aaron Craft was a four-star point guard from Ohio who, for a brief time, had committed to come to Tennessee. During the fall of 2008, he attended this small gathering at Pearl’s home. He was a high school junior who wanted to spend time with his likely future coach. Craft would later decommit to attend the more local Ohio State (a program at a similar once-every-30-years peak), which was fine. However, there was one huge problem with Craft’s attendance at this party: high school juniors were not allowed to attend off-campus events with college coaches.

Pearl knew this. The staff knew this. You can report this as some sort of relatively minor violation and get away with a slap on the wrist or whatever the NCAA is feeling at the moment. A truth-teller can self-report this violation, maybe have probation at worst, and move on with their life.

For reasons known only to Pearl and his staff, the staff denied the party ever happened. They denied that Craft was in attendance. There was one major problem with this white lie: the NCAA was given a photo of Craft and Pearl, standing with each other, inside Pearl’s home. The identity of the photographer, along with who sent the NCAA this photo, is still unknown. Many Tennessee fans believe that this was a plot by Ohio State themselves to kill a newfound recruiting rival; some believe Craft or Craft’s father took the photo themselves as blackmail. The truth of all of this will never be known.

What it ultimately led to was this: a 2010-11 season where a cloud began to hang over Pearl and Pearl’s assistants from night one. Every game Tennessee played this season would be plagued with a timeline of ‘violations’ that ESPN would run through every game, discussing ad nauseum. The season began on November 12th, 2010; seven days later, Pearl was notified that he would be suspended for exactly half of the SEC conference schedule because of his lie to the NCAA. Something funny happened, though.

Under the most scrutiny a Tennessee basketball team has faced in my lifetime, and probably yours as well, a team replacing almost half of its scoring from 2009-10 and pushing a likely one-and-done freshman to the forefront in Tobias Harris just…owned November. Like, to an extent no one saw coming. Tennessee entered the preseason NIT as expected runner-ups and proceeded to dominate #7 Villanova in the second half of a game they won 78-68. Then they went on the road two weeks later to #3 Pittsburgh (at a “neutral” site in Pennsylvania) and won that game, too.

Along the way, there were missteps – Tennessee had to tighten games defensively to escape upset bids by Belmont (85-76), Missouri State (60-56), and a VCU team few expected much from (77-72), but winners win games. They rose from #23 in the preseason AP poll to #7 on December 13. Somehow, despite Pearl’s suspension, despite everything bad building from this recruiting incident, it seemed like the program was not only going to survive but thrive in this sloppiness. Maybe they really were a top ten program.

Three days after that Pittsburgh game, Tennessee hosted Oakland University at home. Oakland was a good team that went on to be a 13 seed in that year’s NCAA Tournament, but when you’re #7 in the country, you expect to beat Oakland at home. And it went that way for one half, as Tennessee put up 50 and led by double digits. Then they turned the car off.

Oakland came back, owned the final 15 minutes in particular, and won, 89-82. This remains Tennessee’s only loss as an AP Top 10 team to an unranked non-SEC opponent. Still, college basketball is weird. This was the same team that just beat two top 10 teams in two weeks. A neutral-site game against Charlotte should’ve been a nice course correction. It turned into one of the most excruciating games Tennessee has played since I began watching, peaking with a late-game broken coverage that allowed Charlotte – CHARLOTTE – to steal a 49-48 win.

In three days, Tennessee went from #7 in the AP Poll with wins over teams ranked #7 and #3 to a team that lost to Oakland University and Charlotte. Just like that, the balloon didn’t just leak, it popped. Tennessee lost at home to USC four days later. They needed a last-second layup to escape a fourth straight loss against Belmont, 66-65. They slept-walked through a horrid December 29th game against Tennessee-Martin and barely won by six. Then, perhaps most embarrassingly, Tennessee hosted a mid-day nationally televised game against the College of Charleston on New Year’s Eve and got utterly demolished.

The Craft news was the first sign of a problem, but in 17 days of real time, Tennessee went from a team some were seriously looking at as a Final Four contender to a team with losses to Oakland, Charlotte, and College of Charleston. And it would somehow only get worse. A random 104-84 win over Memphis was a brief respite, but SEC play started (with “interim” head coach Tony Jones) with an awful road loss to Arkansas. Then it was an overtime home loss to an unranked Florida squad. Then Tennessee had to come back from 17 down at home (on College GameDay, for reasons still unknown) to escape Vanderbilt.

By the time Pearl was able to return permanently (excluding a January road loss to UConn that Pearl was eligible to coach), Tennessee was 15-8 and 5-3 in the SEC. Pearl’s first two games back were road losses to Kentucky (by 12) and Florida (by 1). The train simply never got back on the tracks. Thompson-Boling Arena, a place that had become fearsome for SEC opponents, gave Tennessee a 6-8 home record after November. Tennessee managed to make the NCAA Tournament as a 9 seed. On the day of the game, multiple players on the team have reported watching athletic director Mike Hamilton give an interview to ESPN in which he said he wasn’t sure if Pearl would be back for the 2011-12 season. No wonder the team was steamrolled shortly after.

Pearl would be fired after the season ended, then would receive a three-year show-cause from the NCAA banning him from coaching in college. Tennessee had to embark on a coaching search yet again. Similar to Pearl’s own search, it took several misdirections and ended up in a place almost no one had expected when the search began.

NEXT PAGE: You can’t always get what you want

Eight Games, Pt. 4: Pearl of the Quarter

Eight Games is a series on modern Tennessee basketball that plots the history of the program from 1997-98 to present (the last 24 seasons). In this series, there are eight chapters, each referring to a specific time period in Tennessee basketball told through the lens of one game in that period. This series runs every Monday and Thursday in the month of October 2021. You can follow all editions as they’re listed here.

On the heels of the inarguable Greatest Season in Tennessee Basketball History, Bruce Pearl had to re-tool on the fly. Gone were Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith; in came four Top 100 recruits to give Tennessee a total of six on the roster, along with JUCO newbie Bobby Maze and a few year-older guys in Tyler Smith, Wayne Chism, and J.P. Prince. (Also Brian Williams. Never forget Brian Williams.) Those Top 100 recruits, in order of highest-to-lowest ranking, were:

  • Scotty Hopson (#11 in 2008 class), a 6’7″ guard expected to be a phenomenal shooter who could play the 2, 3, and 4;
  • Emmanuel Negedu (#43 in 2008 class), a 6’7″ forward who came to Knoxville after initially committing to Arizona and was scouted as being dominant at the rim;
  • Renaldo Woolridge (#70 in 2008 class), the 6’9″ son of 12-year NBA player Orlando Woolridge who had a burgeoning rap career on the side;
  • Cameron Tatum (#96 in 2006 class), a 6’7″ player who took a prep school year and redshirted the 2007-08 season who was expected to be an excellent shooter.

Combining these new guys with the returners, along with Tennessee’s upward momentum as a program, convinced the media that Tennessee was unlikely to take much of a step back at all. The Vols began the 2008-09 season ranked #14 nationally, obliterated their first five opponents (including a 90-78 win over #21 Georgetown), and by the time mid-December rolled around, the only blemish on their record was a defensible 83-74 loss to #9 Gonzaga where the Bulldogs hit 55% of their threes to Tennessee’s 29.2%. That kind of stuff happens because college basketball is a weird, variance-driven sport.

On December 13, 2008, Tennessee traveled to Philadelphia to take on Temple for just the second time in 35 years. They probably should’ve stayed home.

Three days later, Tennessee would hold a Marquette team featuring Wesley Matthews and Jimmy Butler to a 45.8% eFG% in a 12-point victory. Back to normal! Then they had to survive a Belmont upset push for a full 40 minutes, escaping with a 79-77 win. It was kind of like this for…well, most of the season. Every good thing would almost immediately be followed by pain; every source of joy stamped out by a newer, larger source of frustration. Tennessee would lose on the road to an unranked Kansas squad, at home to Gonzaga in overtime, and wouldn’t be ranked again after January 12th, 2009.

A steadying win on the road versus a bad Georgia team was immediately followed by the Jodie Meeks Game, where Meeks dropped 54 points on Tennessee in Thompson-Boling Arena as one of the worst Kentucky teams in 30 years defeated Tennessee by 18 points.

A rare double-digit road win at Memorial Gym versus Vandy was followed by an excruciating two-point home loss to Memphis and another home loss to an LSU team that was their toughest competition in the worst SEC in 25 years. A surprising demolition of Florida at TBA (which would be followed later in the season by a road win/sweep of the Gators) gave Tennessee fans hope before a two-point win over a 2-14 Arkansas team and a horrid road loss to an Auburn team that posted a 50% OREB% yet again derailed hopes. As Tennessee turned the page into March, what looked like a seriously promising season as recently as New Year’s Day had turned into the first true disappointment of the Bruce Pearl era: 17-10, 8-5 in the SEC. Tennessee was still pretty likely to get into the NCAA Tournament, but they needed wins sorely.

Out of seemingly nowhere, these Volunteers went on a run. Tennessee went 3-1 to close the year, the only blemish being (of course) a 70-67 home loss with a buzzer-beater against Alabama on Senior Day.

And for once, the SEC Tournament was not a source of utter humiliation. Tennessee would demolish that same Alabama team by 24 on Friday. They’d outlast Auburn on Saturday. The bracket broke wide open. The 1 and 2 seed from the West were eliminated; all that was left was a Mississippi State team that finished its regular season at 19-12, 9-7 SEC. That wasn’t a team that would make the NCAA Tournament field without a victory. Tennessee had defeated them just 18 days prior at home. They were locked into the NCAA Tournament, likely somewhere in the 7-8 seed lines with a win. It seemed easy enough. Until Tennessee just…couldn’t hit anything at all. Tennessee had one of their worst two-point shooting days the program has seen in recent memory: 12-for-42, or 28.6%. Tyler Smith, who was genuinely very reliable on twos his entire career, went 1-for-12. No one could bring it home.

Tennessee still somehow led this game late. Then Phil Turner, who entered the final 90 seconds with five points in the game, scored seven to push State to a 64-61 lead. Tennessee would get one final shot, courtesy of Smith…

Of course it didn’t go in. A genuinely frustrating season doesn’t end that way. Neither did it in the NCAA Tournament, where 9-seed Tennessee had to battle back from a halftime deficit against 8-seed Oklahoma State only to give up a three-point play late to lose, 77-75. (Footnote: This is a game I drew the line on watching again. There is a Real Story that goes with this game for me personally which requires substantial explanation.)

For the first time in Pearl’s four-year tenure, fans had reason to doubt which direction the program was going in. This season shouldn’t have been what it ended up becoming. The recovery would have to begin as soon as Pearl could make it happen.

NEXT PAGE: Show biz kids

Eight Games, Pt. 3: Born to Run

In life, the thing you often want most is the thing that probably isn’t best for you. All sorts of factors can be leaned into here. This thing could be dangerous for you. Maybe it was good for you ten years ago; it may not be so good for you now. Perhaps the timing just isn’t right. Maybe this thing is quite expensive, and you’re on a bit of a budget crunch. It happens. Maybe you start rethinking why you wanted this in the first place and realize it wasn’t right for you.

For a large chunk of the month of March after Buzz Peterson was canned, Tennessee fans seemed obsessed with the idea of hiring Bob Knight, then at Texas Tech. (I imagine his Indiana resume requires no explanation.) At the time, Knight was 64 years old – again, the essential opposite of the young Buzz – and was in the midst of quite the successful second act. His Red Raiders had gone 23-9, 22-13, 23-11, then 22-11 with a newly-furnished Sweet Sixteen bid in March 2005. It was the school’s second-ever Sweet Sixteen run in the 64/68-team era. Obviously, what he was doing was quite remarkable.

As Tennessee’s search ran over the course of two weeks, there were three questions Tennessee was required to answer:

  1. Is this coach actually interested in coming to Tennessee?
  2. Can Tennessee afford this coach’s salary?
  3. Will this coach be available anytime soon?

Knight (behind Pat Summitt, of course) was first and foremost on the average Tennessee fan’s mind. As of March 24 – the morning of Texas Tech’s Sweet Sixteen game against 7-seed West Virginia – Knight was technically available. He’d reportedly made vague overtures that if Tennessee called, he’d listen. And, hey, Knight could be ‘available’ as soon as the next day, were Texas Tech (a 6 seed) to lose as a very slight favorite.

Quietly, Knight’s salary didn’t seem to be all that absurd to buy out. At the time, Knight was reportedly making about $400,000 a year at Texas Tech, which is before all sorts of bonuses (and his relentless appearances in commercials) probably got him north of $500K/year. Knight wasn’t hurting for money at this point of his career; this was more about loving the game than anything else. He even would lose that day to West Virginia, bringing Texas Tech’s 2004-05 season to a close right as Tennessee’s search seemed to heat up. But it never materialized, and reporting now suggests Knight was never that serious of a candidate beyond using Tennessee for a quick raise.

The search narrowed itself to four candidates. Three of them were already available if offered. Bobby Lutz (Charlotte, 47 years old) seemed to be the early leader; Chris Low reported that he both had a phone and in-person interview with athletic director Mike Hamilton. Lutz’s credentials were pretty good at the time. Through seven seasons at Charlotte, Lutz was 135-83 with five NCAA Tournament appearances (including a win in Jerry Green’s final game at Tennessee) and had consistently made Charlotte a top-three team in a conference that had four NCAA Tournament teams with six the previous season. (He was also from Hickory, North Carolina, a town we will obviously never hear about in this series again.)

Lutz fell out late in the running, as did UAB’s Mike Anderson (45 years old), who was 65-34 in three seasons with UAB and had already taken the Blazers to a Sweet Sixteen the previous season. Anderson consistently hung around as a potential candidate but never seemed to materialize in the upper crust.

The third, and briefly most likely option, was Dana Altman of Creighton. We know a lot more about Altman now, but at this time, he was a 46-year-old who had coached in the Great Plains for all but one year of his coaching career. He’d been at Creighton for 12 seasons, completely changing the program’s trajectory and overseeing six NCAA Tournament bids in the seven seasons leading into this coaching search. Creighton had won at least 20 games seven years in a row, which seemed like an obvious grand-slam hire to anyone following closely.

Altman, for reasons I can’t explain beyond the shoulder shrug ASCII guy, never caught on with Tennessee fans. You see in that poll above that he barely outranked Bobby Lutz, a guy who is named Bobby Lutz. His resume was fabulous, and he was widely considered to be in the top two for the Tennessee job, though he never seemed to express his interest publicly.

Throughout a two-week period of March, Mike Hamilton interviewed several candidates, gauged the interest of many more, and seemed to simply…wait it out. It was a bit different pre-Twitter, but even then, two weeks from fired coach to hired coach feels like a lifetime as a fan. It’s like aging in cat/dog years; it simply seems much, much longer than it is. Hamilton was waiting out one final candidate who had overseen his own surprising run to the Sweet Sixteen. That candidate had the backing of one very important historical figure in Tennessee’s tapestry.

NEXT PAGE: Dancing in the dark

Eight Games, Pt. 2: Ever Fallen in Love (With Someone You Shouldn’t’ve?)

Eight Games is a series on modern Tennessee basketball that plots the history of the program from 1997-98 to present (the last 24 seasons). In this series, there are eight chapters, each referring to a specific time period in Tennessee basketball told through the lens of one game in that period. This series runs every Monday and Thursday in the month of October 2021. You can follow all editions as they’re listed here.

After Jerry Green was…uh, “retiring,” Tennessee embarked on a national search to find a coach the program could hold onto for several years. The typical cliche you hear when a coaching search happens is generally the same: the new coach needs to be the opposite of the previous one. If that didn’t work, let’s try this. (We’re going to briefly ignore Green’s 71% win rate and overall general success at Tennessee in a short timespan.)

The last coach was old? Let’s go young. The last coach was a jerk? Let’s try a nice(r) guy. The last coach couldn’t win when it counted? Go find a guy that wins in March. As a hire, Buzz Peterson reasonably met all three basic points: Peterson was 38 when Tennessee hired him. Most who know Buzz seem to describe him as a generally nice person, which was realistically a refreshing thing to hear after Jerry Green had asked you to meet him in the KMart parking lot. Lastly, Peterson had just five years of head coaching experience, but he took Appalachian State to the 2000 NCAA Tournament and, in his one year at Tulsa, won the NIT championship. Lest you doubt all of this, it’s in the newspaper, so it seemed true enough.

The Tennessean, April 3, 2001 The Tennessean, April 5, 2001

All of that seemed like a fine enough resume to Tennessee, who hired Peterson after a fairly short search that included a run at…well, you let me know how you feel about this list.

All of the coaches on that list would have been fascinating experiments for various reasons. Of course, knowing what we know in 2021, at least three of those coaches (and probably a fourth, Gregg Marshall, pre-self-inflicted controversy) would be first-ballot entrants in a College Basketball Coaching Hall of Fame. Tennessee didn’t know that at the time, and to be fair, neither did anyone else. Young coaches are exciting, obviously, but every single one represents a roll of the dice without a ton of information about how great or not-great each one is. We have educated guesses, yes, but even those educated guesses don’t always work out. (Check out Nebraska football for a fretful version of this exact experiment.)

That’s a long way of saying “yeah, I get it.” Left out of the bio is that Peterson’s dad was a Tennessee graduate and Peterson went to several games growing up. Passion for the team and for the fans, something that Jerry Green never quite nailed down, would not be an issue for Buzz. Along with that, it wasn’t as if Tennessee was the only school pursuing Peterson. They had to battle off South Carolina for his services. Along with that, the Tennessean reported that only one candidate from that above list was a true finalist: Marshall at Winthrop. (Jeff Lebo, then at Tennessee Tech, was the other.)

So, sure, you hired a guy with a light resume, but he loves Tennessee and I guess that counts for something.

NEXT PAGE: What do I get?

The Tennessean, February 20, 2001

Eight Games, Pt. 1: Another Green World

Eight Games is a series on modern Tennessee basketball that plots the history of the program from 1997-98 to present (the last 24 seasons). In this series, there are eight chapters, each referring to a specific time period in Tennessee basketball told through the lens of one game in that period. This series runs every Monday and Thursday in the month of October 2021. You can follow all editions as they’re listed here.

A man rises from his seat. It is late; the air is thick and noise around him is heavy. The noise, depending on the night or even the time of the night, can be quantified as ‘good’, ‘bad’, or ‘mixed.’ This man possesses an unusually special ability to make those around him feel all three noises at once. He is a master of emotional confusion; a level above at his highly-specific craft.

The audience around him may not know it at the time, but in their presence, they’ve reached the inflection point of one man’s work. It’s the point at which there is no turning back; a point where people firmly fall on one side or the other with the man in question. These points are unpredictable, and by the time they arrive, they’ve blown past you in what feels like no time at all.

In the process of rising from his seat to issue a call to those mere feet away from him, he clenches his fists, stands as straight as he can, and strikes a pose that remarkably simulates holding in the poop of a lifetime.

This man is Jerry Green, either the most-hated or most-underloved coach in modern Tennessee basketball history.

NEXT PAGE: Taking tiger mountain (by strategy)

Show Me My NCAA Tournament Opponent: Oregon State

Seven years ago today, Tennessee made some memories that will last a lifetime. The Vols drew the Iowa Hawkeyes in Dayton for the First Four, back when they actually played the NCAA Tournament at different sites in non-pandemic times. For the majority of the game, the Vols lagged behind by anywhere from 2-10 points; it was as if Iowa knew exactly when to stop Vol runs and force their way back out in front.

Down by five with about ten minutes left, Josh Richardson received a pass on the perimeter and drove to the basket. What he did next is etched in my memory forever:

Objectively, what this is is a two-point play to take the game from five to three points. Subjectively, both teams’ attitudes changed from that point forward. Tennessee took the lead and later went to overtime, where they won by 13 points; they used this to springboard a Sweet Sixteen run that came up just shy of the second-ever Elite Eight. I don’t remember any play from either of the two actual NCAA Tournament wins. What I remember is Josh Richardson driving the lane, determined to deliver Tennessee to the field of 64 even if he was the only guy doing it.

In a somewhat similar fashion, the 2020-21 Volunteers have a golden opportunity today to redeem some of the frustration caused by inconsistent play. They’re facing a very vulnerable 12 seed that plays a lot like they do. If Tennessee plays it correctly, they’re going to get the opportunity to deliver a lot of beautiful March moments. As a fan, I’m rooting for the chance to see it.

Game information:

  • THE OPPONENT: KenPom #84 Oregon State (17-12, Pac-12 champion).
  • THE TIME: 4:30 PM ET.
  • THE ANNOUNCERS: Spero Dedes (PBP), Brendan Haywood (analyst), and Lauren Shehadi (analyst).
  • THE SPREAD: Tennessee -8.5.

To click ahead to the section of your dreams, go here.

NEXT PAGE: Beaver beaver beaver

Show Me My SEC Tournament Opponent, 2020-21: Alabama

Well it’s these guys again. I think you may have heard about them over the past two months, perhaps?

It’s worth breaking down just how much has changed since the first and only time Tennessee faced this Alabama team. Heading into January 2, Tennessee sat as the #6 team in KenPom, undefeated and coming off of an absolute destruction of what we thought would be the second-best team in the SEC, Missouri. Alabama was #45, had lost at home to Western Kentucky two weeks prior, and came very close to dropping a mid-December home game to Furman. The Tide had potential, but they didn’t seem to be quite in the same stratosphere as Tennessee at the time.

On March 13, 2021, it’s like everything has flipped. Alabama obviously won that first game, then simply went on to smoke the rest of the SEC (minus Missouri, strangely, and Arkansas) and finished 16-2 in conference play. They’re now #8 on KenPom. Tennessee began to wobble with the Alabama game, fully fell off the table at times, and squeaked out a 10-7 SEC record in one of the most frustrating seasons in program history.

We thought we know a lot in January. We didn’t. The question remaining is this: how much have both teams learned about themselves and each other since then?

Game information:

  • THE OPPONENT: 1 seed Alabama (22-6, 16-2). They defeated 9 seed Mississippi State 85-48 yesterday.
  • THE TIME: 1 PM ET.
  • THE ANNOUNCERS: Karl Ravech (PBP) and, yes, Dick Vitale (color).
  • THE SPREAD: Alabama -3.5.

If you’d like to skip ahead to a certain section, click below.

NEXT PAGE: When I have more time, please remind me to write something about how smaller conferences in college basketball mostly do a terrible job of protecting their best teams in the conference tournament. Been on my mind this week!

Show Me My SEC Tournament Opponent, 2020-21: Florida

Hey, look who it is! Didn’t Tennessee just get done playing this team five days ago? Why, yes, they did. What you’ll see below is just about exactly the last preview, though with some small alterations and an attempt to show just how badly Florida was harmed down the stretch by having Tre Mann (their leading scorer in SEC play) unavailable for the game due to a migraine. Florida beat Vanderbilt 69-63 yesterday, if you didn’t see it, with Mann going for 22 points. He is important. So is this game for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament seeding hopes.

Game information:

  • THE OPPONENT: 5-seed Florida (14-8, 9-7).
  • THE TIME: 30 minutes after Alabama/Mississippi State; most likely around 2:30 PM ET.
  • THE ANNOUNCERS: Karl Ravech (PBP) and Jimmy Dykes (color).
  • THE SPREAD: Tennessee -4.5????

Click below to achieve your dreams of drifting ahead to your preferred section.

NEXT PAGE: Did you know Tennessee hasn’t beaten Florida in the SEC Tournament since 1984? They’ve also only played Florida thrice in the SECT since then, but, yeah

How high or low can Tennessee be seeded in the NCAA Tournament?

Somehow, after 17 years of COVID-19 (citation needed), the SEC Tournament will be taking place later this week. Regardless of how everything shakes out, it will simply be great to watch a conference tournament be played again. The sensation of watching a school pull an upset (as long as it’s not against your school) is just about unbeatable.

Tennessee will open their SEC Tournament experience on Friday against one of Florida, Texas A&M, or Vanderbilt. Both KenPom and Bart Torvik agree that it’s around 80% likely to be Florida, but that does leave open the 20% chance that it’s someone else. As such, that leaves open a lot of potential scenarios for Tennessee to work their way through this upcoming weekend. All of these scenarios have serious NCAA Tournament implications, and using Bart Torvik’s amazing TeamCast tool, I’ve tried to work my way through all of the mostly-useful scenarios I could think of.

We’ll go through each scenario one-by-one. I have elected to restrain myself from covering a couple, such as playing a 12/13 seed in the quarterfinals then an 8/9 in the semifinals simply because the odds are so low. (Roughly 2%.) As of this morning, Tennessee ranks out as the top 6 seed (21st overall) on Bracket Matrix while ranking as the second 5 seed (18th overall) on Torvik. It’s only a three-slot difference, and if you feel like adjusting downward using the Matrix average, feel free to. (I’ll include it in parentheses alongside the Torvik projection, simply as a rough approximation of what it would look like by consensus ranking.)

In the meantime, I’m trying to perfect this video step-by-step:

  1. 0-1, quarterfinals loss to either Texas A&M or Vanderbilt

Average outcome, per Bart Torvik’s TeamCast: 6 seed, 24th on seed list (7 seed, 27th on Matrix)

This would obviously be a disaster. Losing to either of these teams is really embarrassing and opens the door for Tennessee to have a really bad seeding outcome. I’ve no interest in falling out of what I’d call the Upset Range (being a 6 seed or better), and finding a way to lose to either the 95th or 129th-ranked team by KenPom would be awful. It’s like losing a home game in non-conference play to Tulsa or someone. Let’s avoid talking about it.

2. 0-1, quarterfinals loss to Florida

Average outcome: 6 seed, 21st on seed list (6 seed, 24th on Matrix)

Also not ideal, though this is much more realistic. Despite playing Florida twice already, Tennessee still hasn’t played a full-strength Florida team, and for 56 of the 80 minutes they’ve played the Gators, they’ve gotten rocked. However, the final 24 minutes of Sunday’s game were the most promising minutes Tennessee’s showed in a game since they defeated Kansas. You’d hope they can build off of that and simply avoid disaster.

3. 1-1, win over Florida, loss to Alabama in semifinals

Average outcome: 5 seed, 17th on seed list (5 seed, 20th on Matrix)

I admit I’m surprised that this would actually boost Tennessee, considering they’re likely to be seeded higher than Florida anyway. That said, gaining a win over a team that will be around a 7-9 seed is never a bad thing, particularly if it’s not a home game. Losing a second time to Alabama would be disappointing, but they are the best team in the SEC, so it’s not like it would be stunning. If Tennessee only gets one win this weekend, this is the best scenario you can dream up. The average outcome is probably a 4 or 5 seed, and it would be hard to see Tennessee falling past a 6 seed.

4. 1-1, win over Texas A&M or Vanderbilt, loss to Alabama in semifinals

Average outcome: 5 seed, 18th on seed list (6 seed, 21st on Matrix)

While it would be nice to avoid Florida, it might not be the best move for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament seeding. Per Torvik’s simulator, losing to Florida is almost the same as beating a bad Vandy team then losing to Alabama. The win over Vanderbilt does nothing to boost Tennessee’s resume; it’s like having not played a game at all. I’d somewhat rather play Vanderbilt because I greatly enjoy watching Florida lose basketball games, but it might be a bad thing for Tennessee if that happened.

5. 1-1, win over Florida, loss to Kentucky or Mississippi State in semifinals

Average outcome: 5 seed, 18th on seed list (6 seed, 21st on Matrix)

I think this would be the absolute dumbest and most infuriating outcome on the board by a mile. Imagine finally getting to beat full-strength Florida right after watching the SEC’s best team lose to a Kentucky or Mississippi State team that isn’t making the NCAA Tournament. Then, the next day, you lose to that exact team. I think I’d have to log off for a week. And yet: it doesn’t actually appear to be that disastrous? Kentucky and Miss State both would be Q2 losses, which is better than Q3 or Q4. (It would make Tennessee’s Q2 record an incredibly embarrassing 2-3, though.) This exact scenario screams 6 seed to me; it yells “you will be playing VCU on Friday afternoon.”

6. 2-1, wins over Florida and Alabama, loss to Arkansas…

Average outcome: 3 seed, 11th on seed list (4 seed, 14th on Matrix)

Oh my. If you’ve got to lose a game this weekend, this is the path. I have to be honest and say it’s really hard for me to imagine Tennessee getting a 3 seed without winning the SEC Tournament, but this clearly opens the path to a 4 seed and probably no worse than a 5. With this, you’d add a pair of Quad 1 wins, beat a near-certain 2 seed, and your loss would be to the hottest team in the SEC who’s on track for a 2 or 3 seed. It’s not that bad of an outcome…but this would be Tennessee’s third straight loss in the SEC Tournament championship. It would hurt, badly.

…or LSU…

Average outcome: 3 seed, 11th on seed list (4 seed, 14th on Matrix)

LSU seems destined for an 8 or 9 seed, but as we saw a few weeks back, they can get hot at any time and it’s very, very hard to slow their offense down. (Alabama is the only school to consistently do this all season.) I’d still have a hard time seeing Tennessee come out of this scenario at something worse than a 5 seed.

…or a lower seed 

Average outcome: 4 seed, 14th on seed list (5 seed, 17th on Matrix)

I chose both Ole Miss and Missouri for this example; they’re the 6 and 7 seeds, and the 10 and 11 seeds (Georgia and South Carolina) have a combined 2.5% chance of making the title game. This is the most annoying possible outcome out of the “make it to the SEC Championship Game” scenarios, obviously. A loss to either Ole Miss or Missouri probably opens the door back to potentially being a 6 seed, and it definitely eliminates the chance of Tennessee getting any higher than a 4. There’s only a 28.5% chance of one of these teams being in the title game, so it’s unlikely, but if it happens, Tennessee simply has to win.

7. Win the whole freaking thing

Average outcome: 3 seed, 9th on seed list (3 seed, 12th on Matrix)

For this, I used the average among all potential opponents, weighted towards each opponent’s likelihood of making the title game. Using all of these, Tennessee came closest to being the highest 3 seed, and in some scenarios (particularly any scenario involving beating both Florida and Alabama), Tennessee was the lowest 2 seed on Torvik’s TeamCast. This would be amazing for several reasons – being the 4 seed and making it this far; the first SEC Tournament championship since 1979; the reclamation of the last two months of frustrating basketball. Which is why I simply can’t allow myself to believe this is a possibility.

So, yes, Tennessee still could end up as a 3 seed. Or, alternately, a 7 seed is on the table. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, and we’ll simply have to wait and find out what it is.

Show Me My Opponent, 2020-21: Florida (#2)

It’s Sunday, it’s early, and this is the final game of the SEC’s regular season. I’m tired. Super sim to the start of this game, please.

In all seriousness, you don’t really need millions of words about this game. With a win, Tennessee can somewhat salvage this turd of an SEC season by getting the final double-bye in next week’s conference tournament. With a loss, I think I’m moving out to a farm and not thinking about the Internet for a while.

Game information:

  • THE OPPONENT: Florida (13-7, 9-6).
  • THE TIME: 12 PM ET. For some reason.
  • THE CHANNEL: ESPNU. First ESPNU appearance this season!
  • THE ANNOUNCERS: Tom Hart (PBP) and Jimmy Dykes (color).
  • THE SPREAD: Tennessee -4.5.

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