Tennessee high school football projections, week 5

Week five has arrived! Last week’s projections finished about two wins below expectation, though still pretty good: 131-35 (78.9%), putting these picks at 533-159 (77%) on the season. It’s about four wins below where I’d like to be, but again, we’ve hit the goal of 77% and all four wins would do is get us to 77.6%. It’s a small-enough margin that I’m comfortable with.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Last week ended up being better than expected! 39 of 166 (23.5%) games ended with an eight-point or lower margin. The Blowout of the Week Award goes to Macon County, who defeated Glencliff by a final score of 70-8. (Serious credit to Glencliff for going for two.) NINE GAMES (!!!) ended with a one-point margin, which is easily the best output I’ve seen to date. (The best of these had to be Beech-Hendersonville, which ended with a Beech TD on the final play.)

This week is expected to be the least-competitive so far. Only 31 of the 167 games are projected within 7.5 points, and an astounding 74 games have the favorite at 90% or better to win. Hopefully, like last week, it’s more competitive than expected, but there seem to be a lot of likely blowouts. Favorites are expected to go 139.5-27.5 (83.5%). Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 4:

• 50-59% likely to win the game: 68-51 (57.1%); 9-9 last week
• 60-69%: 87-48 (64.4%); 19-12 last week
• 70-79%: 79-41 (65.8%); 24-11 last week
• 80-89%: 99-12 (89.2%); 21-2 last week
• 90-100%: 199-8 (96.1%); 58-1 last week

No real earth-shattering upsets last week, though Smyrna defeated Riverdale as a 23-point underdog, 27-17.

Now, for this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

• Knoxville Halls 30 at Carter 15 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
• Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 21 at Hillcrest 14
• Hamilton 17 at KIPP Collegiate 25
• Raleigh-Egypt 13 at Melrose 27
• Bluff City 7 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 30
• Memphis East 30 at Memphis Business Academy 18
• King Prep 20 at Sheffield 26

Friday

• Peabody 41 at Adamsville 2
• Pigeon Forge 0 at Alcoa 64
• Houston 43 at Arlington 13
• Cordova 35 at Bartlett 12
• Sweetwater 29 at Brainerd 19
• Ravenwood 33 at Brentwood 20
• Father Ryan 3 at Brentwood Academy 38
• Munford 27 at Brighton 26
• Red Boiling Springs 7 at Byrns [Jo] 36
• Silverdale Academy 15 at CAK 34
• Cheatham Co. Central 8 at Camden Central 37
• Antioch 0 at Cane Ridge 52
• Upperman 37 at Cannon Co. 11
• Watertown 45 at Cascade 8
• Seymour 0 at Central 47
• East Hamilton 31 at Chattanooga Central 12
• Boyd-Buchanan 22 at Chattanooga Christian 29
• Volunteer 21 at Cherokee 44 (7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV)
• Liberty Tech Magnet 23 at Chester Co. 21
• Battle Ground Academy 36 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 17
• Pope John Paul II 25 at Christian Brothers 21
• Henry Co. 34 at Clarksville 19
• Trinity Christian Academy 28 at Clarksville Academy 21
• Gordonsville 16 at Clay Co. 31
• Heritage 7 at Cleveland 50
• White Station 27 at Collierville 19
• Perry Co. 11 at Collinwood 36
• Nashville Christian 29 at Columbia Academy 15
• Eagleville 38 at Community 17
• Oakland 47 at Cookeville 3
• Mount Pleasant 27 at Cornersville 22
• Happy Valley 39 at Cosby 3
• Westview 20 at Covington 38
• Bolton 7 at Crockett Co. 41
• Macon Co. 36 at Cumberland Co. 6
• Oneida 35 at Cumberland Gap 0
• Cocke Co. 8 at David Crockett 50
• Grundy Co. 14 at DeKalb Co. 34
• Centennial 35 at Dickson Co. 16
• Hardin Valley 10 at Dobyns-Bennett 39
• Franklin Road Academy 32 at Donelson Christian Academy 13
• Greenfield 32 at Dresden 19
• Northeast 14 at Dyer Co. 37
• Houston Co. 35 at East Hickman Co. 9
• Grainger 6 at Elizabethton 49
• Baylor 14 at Ensworth 25
• Sycamore 14 at Fairview 35
• Kingsbury 8 at Fayette Ware 36
• St. George’s 31 at First Assembly Christian 21
• Loretto 8 at Forrest 41
• Davidson Academy 28 at Friendship Christian 36
• Humboldt 22 at Fulton Co. (KY) 40
• Hillwood 4 at Gallatin 55
• Olive Branch (MS) 28 at Germantown 16
• Campbell Co. 23 at Gibbs 27
• Union City 22 at Gibson Co. 24
• Stratford 27 at Giles Co. 31
• Hillsboro 54 at Glencliff 0
• Scott 9 at GPittman 34
• Middle Tennessee Christian 21 at Grace Baptist Academy 27
• Notre Dame 31 at Grace Christian 27
• Mount Juliet Christian Academy 43 at Grace Christian Academy 10
• Oliver Springs 23 at Greenback 27
• Austin-East 18 at Greeneville 39
• Cloudland 32 at Hancock Co. 16
• Jackson South Side 10 at Hardin Co. 35
• Sunbright 19 at Harriman 27
• Dyersburg 18 at Haywood 40
• Lebanon 16 at Hendersonville 28 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
• Sequoyah 23 at Hixson 32
• Memphis Central 20 at Holmes Co. Central (MS) 26
• Anderson Co. 34 at Howard Tech 19
• Beech 47 at Hunters Lane 0
• Franklin 13 at Independence 36
• University School of Jackson 31 at Jackson Christian 13
• East Robertson 25 at Jackson Co. 20
• Lexington 15 at Jackson North Side 25
• Unaka 19 at Jellico 34
• Fulton 38 at Karns 22
• Northview 8 at Kingston 32
• Southwind 19 at Kirby 33
• Harding Academy 14 at Lausanne Collegiate 45
• Summertown 9 at Lewis Co. 33
• Columbia Central 27 at Lincoln Co. 25
• Goodpasture Christian 10 at Lipscomb Academy 38
• Douglass [Frederick] 25 at Manassas 18
• Marshall Co. 26 at Maplewood 19
• Tyner Academy 35 at Marion Co. 13
• Knox Catholic 10 at McCallie 35
• Huntingdon 55 at McEwen 4
• Halls 14 at McKenzie 36
• Red Bank 44 at McMinn Central 9
• William Blount 15 at McMinn Co. 32
• South Gibson 25 at McNairy Central 24
• Montgomery Bell Academy 9 at Memphis University 31
• Freedom Prep Academy 36 at Middle College 15
• Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 35 at Middleton 21
• Bolivar Central 12 at Milan 39
• Trezevant 18 at Millington Central 27
• Fairley 24 at Mitchell 18
• Pickett Co. 4 at Monterey 47
• Creek Wood 25 at Montgomery Central 19
• Fayetteville 30 at Moore Co. 17
• Farragut 38 at Morristown West 12
• Wilson Central 25 at Mount Juliet 17
• Summit 38 at Nashville Overton 3
• Lawrence Co. 10 at Nolensville 36
• Sale Creek 21 at North Georgia (GA) 29
• Chuckey-Doak 53 at North Greene 1
• Evangelical Christian 42 at Northpoint Christian 0
• Kenwood 19 at Northwest 23
• Knoxville West 28 at Oak Ridge 18
• Coalfield 45 at Oakdale 0
• Bradley Central 31 at Ooltewah 20 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
• Tellico Plains 30 at Polk Co. 16
• Clinton 2 at Powell 50
• Pearl-Cohn 68 at RePublic 0
• Lenoir City 9 at Rhea Co. 40
• Lookout Valley 16 at Richland 33
• Memphis Overton 6 at Ridgeway 44
• Obion Co. 18 at Ripley 33
• Rockvale 3 at Riverdale 46
• Hickman Co. 14 at Riverside 27
• Meigs Co. 35 at Rockwood 6
• Station Camp 10 at Rossview 33
• Jefferson Co. 19 at Science Hill 29
• East Ridge 19 at Sequatchie Co. 28
• South-Doyle 41 at Sevier Co. 10
• Coffee Co. Central 16 at Siegel 32
• Loudon 29 at Signal Mountain 16
• McGavock 9 at Smyrna 34
• Huntland 8 at South Pittsburg 39
• Whitehaven 29 at Southaven (MS) 17
• Tullahoma 31 at Spring Hill 10
• Briarcrest Christian 45 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 1
• Harpeth 19 at Stewart Co. 28
• LaVergne 16 at Stewarts Creek 36
• Livingston Academy 41 at Stone Memorial 5
• South Greene 37 at Sullivan North 13
• Sullivan Central 15 at Sullivan South 42
• Morristown East 8 at Tennessee 43
• Fayette Academy 32 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 17
• Westmoreland 12 at Trousdale Co. 29
• Claiborne 17 at Unicoi Co. 34
• Sullivan East 20 at Union Co. 32
• Blackman 40 at Warren Co. 9
• Midway 22 at Wartburg 31
• Westwood 25 at Washington 19
• Scotts Hill 9 at Waverly Central 43
• King’s Academy 36 at Webb Bell Buckle 18
• Gleason 8 at West Carroll 46
• Portland 32 at West Creek 19
• Johnson Co. 22 at West Greene 26
• Walker Valley 28 at White Co. 24
• Springfield 31 at White House 22
• Greenbrier 11 at White House-Heritage 42
• East Nashville 50 at Whites Creek 0
• Copper Basin 27 at Whitwell 25
• Craigmont 3 at Wooddale 44
• Smith Co. 31 at York Institute 21

167 games this week, 145 of them in Region play. While there aren’t a ton of close games on the schedule, an unexpected Week 5 result can turn the season-long projections upside down. Next Tuesday, I’ll have a post that sort of checks how things are going midway through the season – who’s doing better than expected, who’s worse, and what regions have the most left up in the air. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.

• Baylor (4-0, 1-0) at Ensworth (4-0, 1-0) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). It’s not exactly out of nowhere, but Ensworth has risen from a preseason fourth-place projection in II-AAA East to second, while Baylor has jumped from fifth to fourth. Considering only four teams from the two II-AAA regions make the playoffs, this game in particular has a ton at stake for both teams. Both are 4-0 and 1-0 in region play, but Baylor still has to play McCallie, Brentwood Academy, and Knoxville Catholic. Considering they’ll be underdogs in two of those three games, they really need a win to feel comfortable about their playoff status. Ensworth, meanwhile, is a double-digit favorite and this and the remainder of their first eight games.
• Pope John Paul II (3-1, 0-1) at Christian Brothers (2-2, 0-1) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). A battle of two teams that are slightly better (PJP) or worse (Christian Brothers) than expected. Both lost their first II-AAA West games to better teams, and both really need a win to have playoff status confidence. Christian Brothers endured a tough 13-7 home loss to White Station last week, while PJP pulled off an excellent road win at Father Ryan.
• Ravenwood (4-0, 2-0) at Brentwood (3-1, 1-0) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). The Battle of the Woods promises to be unusually special this year. Ravenwood has navigated a tough opening run with wins at Blackman and at home over Pulaski Academy; Brentwood has overachieved expectations a little bit with a road win over Cane Ridge, though last week’s loss at Henry County dampens expectations a little. The spread of Ravenwood by 13.6 points is the lowest remaining projected margin on their schedule; they have a 62% chance of a 10-0 season.
• South Gibson (4-0, 1-0) at McNairy Central (3-1, 0-1) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Now this is not a game you’d expect to see! South Gibson was a projected mid-pack team in 3A-7 before the year, but a surprising 4-0 start with a pair of road wins has correctly changed expectations. McNairy, meanwhile, has mostly been what I expected: a 7-3ish team with a tough 57-49 road loss to a far-better-than-expected Westview. This is a massive swing game for 3A-7, as McNairy currently has just a 0.34-win margin on fifth-place Milan. For second-place South Gibson, this is an absolute must-win if they have hopes of keeping pace with 3A title contender Covington.
• Knoxville West (4-0, 1-0) at Oak Ridge (2-2, 1-0) (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). After a turd of an 0-2 start, Oak Ridge has mostly returned to preseason expectations, smoking Campbell County and pulling off a surprising home win against Farragut. West, meanwhile, is a wrecking crew: they’ve beaten 6A squads Bearden, Farragut, and Jefferson County. If they were in 6A-1, they’d have locked up a playoff spot already with a 3-0 record. If West wins this, they should be able to start 7-0 before the Powell game in Week 8; an Oak Ridge win would completely erase the stench of the first two games and likely allow them to run out to a 4-0 start in 5A-3.
• Honorable Mentions: Columbia Central at Lincoln County (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Marshall County at Maplewood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); White Station at Collierville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Olive Branch (MS) at Germantown (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Whitehaven at Southaven (MS) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Oliver Springs at Greenback (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link or below:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!