The Dipstick: Checking out Tennessee high school football at the season’s midpoint

We’re essentially at the midpoint of the Tennessee high school football season. Most teams have played at least four games, and a lot of teams have played five; you generally know what you’ve got by now. As such, it makes sense to stop, take a look around, and figure out what’s going on. Call this the Dipstick Report: we’re taking a look at the oil, figuring out if changes need to be made or if things are still fine and good. Here’s a report on all six public school classes, the three private school classes, over- and under-achievers, and odds of going undefeated.

1A

WHAT’S CHANGED: …not much? Of the six teams in preseason that had a 10% or better chance to win the championship, three have risen to the top: Huntingdon (the preseason favorite), South Pittsburg (from #3 to #2), and Lake County (#6 to #3). Whitwell has been a gigantic disappointment, starting out 0-5 and now being projected to finish 2-8/3-7. Greenback and Cornersville’s respective roads have been bumpy, but Greenback has recovered to get back to #4; Cornersville, #8.

The biggest surprise is easily Fayetteville, a preseason 3-7 projected team that now has a 71% shot to go undefeated. They rank #6 in the 1A statewide ratings. Freedom Prep Academy is right behind them, playing in a very easy region with a 96% shot at 10-0. Other notables: Oliver Springs, preseason #7, is #9; Mount Pleasant, #8, is #10.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Huntingdon
    2. South Pittsburg
    3. Lake Co.
    4. Greenback
    5. Freedom Prep Academy
    6. Fayetteville
    7. Clay Co.
    8. Cornersville
    9. Oliver Springs
    10. Mount Pleasant
    11. Monterey
    12. Greenfield
    13. Moore Co.
    14. Coalfield
    15. Huntland

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Mount Pleasant at Huntland (Week 7); Cornersville at Fayetteville (Week 7); Greenback at Coalfield (Week 8); Huntland at Moore Co. (Week 9); Coalfield at Oliver Springs (Week 10); Clay Co. at Monterey (Week 10); Cornersville at Huntland (Week 10); Lake Co. at Greenfield (Week 10); Moore Co. at Mount Pleasant (Week 11); Memphis East at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • Region 1: Cloudland, Jellico, Hancock Co., Unaka.
  • Region 2: Greenback, Oliver Springs, Coalfield, Midway.
  • Region 3: South Pittsburg, Copper Basin, Whitwell, Lookout Valley.
  • Region 4: Clay Co., Monterey, Gordonsville, Byrns [Jo].
  • Region 5: Fayetteville, Cornersville, Mount Pleasant, Huntland.
  • Region 6: Huntingdon, McEwen, Wayne Co., Collinwood.
  • Region 7: Lake Co., Greenfield, West Carroll, Dresden.
  • Region 8: Freedom Prep Academy, Middle College, Memphis East, Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: South Pittsburg (1A-3) at Greenback (1A-2); Lake Co. (1A-7) at Huntingdon (1A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: South Pittsburg (1A-3) vs. Huntingdon (1A-6), Friday, December 6.

2A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Almost nothing. Five of the top six in my ratings are the same teams from mid-August, with only Forrest making a surprise entry. Forrest was expected to be good – #12 in the preseason ratings – but they’ve beaten those expectations by a lot with a 5-0 start. The clear favorite, as it was in preseason, is Peabody, last year’s champions. The gap from first-place Peabody to second-place Meigs County is the same at the gap from second to 11th. Trousdale County ranks fourth in title odds. A couple of the preseason back-end title potentials are still hanging around: Watertown, Tyner Academy, South Greene, etc.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Peabody
    2. Meigs Co.
    3. Trousdale Co.
    4. Forrest
    5. Tyner Academy
    6. Fairley
    7. South Greene
    8. Watertown
    9. Oneida
    10. Waverly Central
    11. Eagleville
    12. Gibson Co.
    13. Lewis Co.
    14. Bledsoe Co.
    15. Westmoreland

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Mitchell at Douglass [Frederick] (Week 6); Watertown at Westmoreland (Week 7); Eagleville at Lewis Co. (Week 7); McKenzie at Gibson Co. (Week 7); South Greene at Hampton (Week 9); Meigs Co. at Oneida (Week 9); Waverly Central at Houston Co. (Week 9); Lewis Co. at Forrest (Week 11); Gibson Co. at Peabody (Week 11); Memphis Academy of Health Sciences at Fairley (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • Region 1: South Greene, Happy Valley, Hampton, Sullivan North.
  • Region 2: Meigs Co., Oneida, Rockwood, Wartburg.
  • Region 3: Tyner Academy, Bledsoe Co., Tellico Plains, Marion Co.
  • Region 4: Watertown, Trousdale Co., Westmoreland, East Robertson.
  • Region 5: Forrest, Summertown, Eagleville, Lewis Co.
  • Region 6: Waverly Central, Houston Co., Riverside, Hickman Co.
  • Region 7: Peabody, Gibson Co., McKenzie, Union City.
  • Region 8: Fairley, Mitchell, Memphis Academy of Health Sciences, Douglass [Frederick].

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Trousdale Co. (2A-4) at Meigs Co. (2A-2); Peabody (2A-7) at Forrest (2A-5).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Meigs Co. (2A-2) vs. Peabody (2A-7), Saturday, December 7.

3A

WHAT’S CHANGED: A lot, actually. Alcoa, who has won four straight 3A titles, is still one of the two best in the class…but they’re no longer the title favorite, because Pearl-Cohn is somehow much better than their already-high expectations. Covington, East Nashville, and Red Bank all look very good, too. The biggest stunner is a Loudon team that wasn’t expected to do much more than 4-5 wins, but is on pace for a 9-1 season with a 21% shot to go undefeated. Past that, there’s been some lower-end surprises, both positive (GPittman, Sweetwater, Stewart Co., Westview, South Gibson) and negative (York Institute, Bolivar Central).

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Pearl-Cohn
    2. Alcoa
    3. Covington
    4. East Nashville
    5. Red Bank
    6. South Gibson
    7. Upperman
    8. GPittman
    9. Loudon
    10. Wooddale
    11. Stratford
    12. Westview
    13. Austin-East
    14. Milan
    15. McNairy Central

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: East Nashville at Pearl-Cohn (Week 7); Covington at Milan (Week 7); Westview at South Gibson (Week 7); Austin-East at GPittman (Week 8); Stratford at East Nashville (Week 9); Sweetwater at Loudon (Week 9); McNairy Central at Milan (Week 9); South Gibson at Covington (Week 9); GPittman at Alcoa (Week 10); Signal Mountain at Sweetwater (Week 11); Covington at McNairy Central (Week 11); Milan at Westview (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • Region 1: Unicoi Co., Chuckey-Doak, Johnson Co., West Greene.
  • Region 2: Alcoa, GPittman, Austin-East, Kingston.
  • Region 3: Red Bank, Loudon, Sweetwater, Signal Mountain.
  • Region 4: Upperman, Smith Co., Sequatchie Co., York Institute.
  • Region 5: Pearl-Cohn, East Nashville, Stratford, Giles Co.
  • Region 6: Fairview, Camden Central, Sycamore, Stewart Co.
  • Region 7: Covington, South Gibson, Westview, Milan.
  • Region 8: Wooddale, Melrose, Raleigh-Egypt, Sheffield.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Red Bank (3A-3) at Alcoa (3A-2); Covington (3A-7) at Pearl-Cohn (3A-5).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Alcoa (3A-2) vs. Pearl-Cohn (3A-5), Friday, December 6.

4A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Well…I thought more would have changed by now, but essentially nothing is different. The top two teams in the state are the same (Greeneville and Anderson Co.), though Greenville’s giant margin on the rest of the field has been mostly erased. Elizabethton has been better than expected, which has made them the third-best team in 4A instead of merely fifth-best. Livingston Academy (+3.85 wins over expectation) has been a nice surprise, as has Fayette Ware (+4.57), but largely, not a ton is different from preseason. Other than that…Maplewood is a bit lesser than expected, I guess?

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Greeneville
    2. Anderson Co.
    3. Elizabethton
    4. Nolensville
    5. Marshall Co.
    6. Haywood
    7. Livingston Academy
    8. Hardin Co.
    9. Tullahoma
    10. East Hamilton
    11. Maplewood
    12. Creek Wood
    13. Springfield
    14. Montgomery Central
    15. Lexington

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Tullahoma at Nolensville (Week 7); Springfield at Montgomery Central (Week 8); Greeneville at Elizabethton (Week 9); Maplewood at Nolensville (Week 9); Lexington at Hardin Co. (Week 9); Anderson Co. at East Hamilton (Week 10); Creek Wood at Portland (Week 10); East Hamilton at Howard Tech (Week 11); Maplewood at Tullahoma (Week 11); Nolensville at Marshall Co. (Week 11); Springfield at Creek Wood (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • Region 1: Greeneville, Elizabethton, Sullivan South, Union Co.
  • Region 2: Anderson Co., East Hamilton, Howard Tech, East Ridge.
  • Region 3: Livingston Academy, Macon Co., DeKalb Co., Stone Memorial.
  • Region 4: Marshall Co., Nolensville, Tullahoma, Maplewood.
  • Region 5: Springfield, Montgomery Central, Portland, Creek Wood.
  • Region 6: Hardin Co., Lexington, Jackson North Side, Jackson South Side.
  • Region 7: Haywood, Dyersburg, Crockett Co., Ripley.
  • Region 8: Millington Central, Fayette Ware, Craigmont, Bolton.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Marshall Co. (4A-4) at Greeneville (4A-1); Haywood (4A-7) at Hardin Co. (4A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Greeneville (4A-1) vs. Haywood (4A-7), Saturday, December 7.

5A

WHAT’S CHANGED: I don’t know that any poll blew it as hard as the preseason 5A poll on this site did. Only six of the ten teams are still in the top ten, with #3 and #4 disappearing quickly. The preseason favorite, Central, now ranks #5 through no fault of their own – it’s simply that their competition is way tougher this year. Powell, Gallatin, and South-Doyle have all been better than the numbers anticipated, and Knoxville West has taken an already-very-good team to being great. And that doesn’t even mention who’s behind Central: David Crockett, Summit, Henry Co., Beech, etc. I can’t promise this too thoroughly, but I think this is going to be the most wide-open class of all. I have eight teams at 5% or better to win the title, with nine having a realistic shot to make the title game.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Powell
    2. Gallatin
    3. Knoxville West
    4. South-Doyle
    5. Central
    6. David Crockett
    7. Summit
    8. Henry Co.
    9. Beech
    10. Shelbyville Central
    11. Page
    12. Tennessee
    13. Hillsboro
    14. Oak Ridge
    15. Dyer Co.

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Dyer Co. at Clarksville (Week 6); Southwind at Ridgeway (Week 6); Central at Knoxville Halls (Week 7); Page at Summit (Week 7); Hillsboro at Beech (Week 7); David Crockett at Cherokee (Week 8); Knoxville West at Powell (Week 8); Tennessee at David Crockett (Week 9); Knoxville Halls at South-Doyle (Week 9); Summit at Shelbyville Central (Week 9); Page at Columbia Central (Week 9); Kirby at Munford (Week 9); David Crockett at Daniel Boone (Week 10); Cherokee at Tennessee (Week 10); Central at South-Doyle (Week 10); Oak Ridge at Powell (Week 10); Gallatin at Beech (Week 10); Daniel Boone at Cherokee (Week 11); Central at Gibbs (Week 11); Columbia Central at Shelbyville Central (Week 11); Ridgeway at Kirby (Week 11). Hey, can you tell yet that this is an ultra-competitive class?

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • Region 1: David Crockett, Tennessee, Cherokee, Daniel Boone.
  • Region 2: South-Doyle, Central, Knoxville Halls, Gibbs.
  • Region 3: Powell, Knoxville West, Oak Ridge, Karns.
  • Region 4: Rhea Co., Soddy Daisy, Walker Valley, Lenoir City.
  • Region 5: Summit, Page, Shelbyville Central, Columbia Central.
  • Region 6: Gallatin, Beech, Hillsboro, Hunters Lane.
  • Region 7: Henry Co., Dyer Co., Clarksville, Kenwood.
  • Region 8: Southwind, Ridgeway, Kirby, Munford.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Powell (5A-3) at South-Doyle (5A-2); Henry Co. (5A-7) at Gallatin (5A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Powell (5A-3) vs. Gallatin (5A-6), Friday, December 6.

6A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Of course nothing’s changed. The top two teams, as it’s been for seemingly 20 years now, are Oakland and Maryville. Whitehaven, as it’s been for ten years, is lurking right behind. The only differences are that Mount Juliet and Farragut, two teams I had singled out to be dark-horse champion picks, are worse than expected, while Dobyns-Bennett has come out of nowhere to own 6A-1. Brentwood’s upset of Ravenwood upset the apple cart a little and cemented Brentwood as one of the pleasant surprises of 2019. They aren’t really a stunning surprise, but Houston has been better than expected, has won every swing game, and has a 68% shot of a 10-0 season.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Oakland
    2. Maryville
    3. Whitehaven
    4. Houston
    5. Dobyns-Bennett
    6. Ravenwood
    7. Brentwood
    8. Bradley Central
    9. Independence
    10. Mount Juliet
    11. Cordova
    12. McMinn Co.
    13. Stewarts Creek
    14. Cane Ridge
    15. Science Hill

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Blackman at Riverdale (Week 6); Science Hill at Farragut (Week 7); Brentwood at Independence (Week 7); Collierville at Cordova (Week 7); Memphis Central at White Station (Week 7); Houston at Collierville (Week 8); Whitehaven at White Station (Week 8); Science Hill at Dobyns-Bennett (Week 10); Cordova at Houston (Week 10); Bradley Central at McMinn Co. (Week 11); Mount Juliet at Hendersonville (Week 11); Independence at Ravenwood (Week 11); White Station at Germantown (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below.

  • Region 1: Dobyns-Bennett, Science Hill, Farragut, Bearden.
  • Region 2: Maryville, Bradley Central, McMinn Co., Cleveland.
  • Region 3: Oakland, Riverdale, Blackman, Cookeville.
  • Region 4: Mount Juliet, Lebanon, Wilson Central, Hendersonville.
  • Region 5: Cane Ridge, Stewarts Creek, Smyrna, LaVergne.
  • Region 6: Brentwood, Ravenwood, Independence, Centennial.
  • Region 7: Houston, Bartlett, Collierville, Cordova.
  • Region 8: Whitehaven, White Station, Memphis Central, Germantown.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Oakland (6A-3) at Maryville (6A-2); Houston (6A-7) at Brentwood (6A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Oakland (6A-3) vs. Houston (6A-7), Saturday, December 7.

II-A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Lots! Sort of. The current statewide favorite was #5 in the preseason poll, #2 was #6, and #1 and #2 are now #4 and #5. University School of Jackson has emerged out of the pile-up to become the temporary II-A favorite, with Nashville Christian and Fayette Academy right behind. The biggest surprise is probably Donelson Christian Academy (+3.98 wins over expectation), emerging from the cellar to be a serious title contender.

TOP 10 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. University School of Jackson
    2. Nashville Christian
    3. Fayette Academy
    4. Davidson Academy
    5. Friendship Christian
    6. Trinity Christian Academy
    7. Donelson Christian Academy
    8. Columbia Academy
    9. Jackson Christian
    10. Tipton-Rosemark Academy

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Nashville Christian at University School of Jackson (Week 7); Nashville Christian at Fayette Academy (Week 8); University School of Jackson at Davidson Academy (Week 8); Fayette Academy at University School of Jackson (Week 9); Davidson Academy at Trinity Christian Academy (Week 9); Davidson Academy at Fayette Academy (Week 10); Nashville Christian at Trinity Christian Academy (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, from #1 seed to #6.

  • East: Friendship Christian, Donelson Christian Academy, King’s Academy, Middle Tennessee Christian, Mount Juliet Christian Academy, Grace Baptist Academy.
  • West: University School of Jackson, Nashville Christian, Fayette Academy, Davidson Academy, Trinity Christian Academy, Tipton-Rosemark Academy.

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Nashville Christian (II-A West #2) vs. University School of Jackson (II-A West #1), Thursday, December 5.

II-AA

WHAT’S CHANGED: Preseason favorite Christ Presbyterian Academy has had a disastrous start, beginning the season 0-4 before an upset win over Battle Ground Academy last week. In their #1 stead is Evangelical Christian, who hasn’t won a state title since 2005. Just below them is the surprise of the season: Lipscomb Academy, with head coach Trent Dilfer (yes, the QB), who last won a title in 2007. Battle Ground is right behind them. A special shoutout to Boyd-Buchanan, who went 0-10 last year but is tracking towards a 6-4 or 7-3 season.

TOP 10 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Evangelical Christian
    2. Lipscomb Academy
    3. Battle Ground Academy
    4. Christ Presbyterian Academy
    5. Franklin Road Academy
    6. Lausanne Collegiate
    7. Grace Christian
    8. Webb
    9. CAK
    10. Chattanooga Christian

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Chattanooga Christian at CAK (Week 6); Grace Christian at Webb (Week 7); Lipscomb Academy at Christ Presbyterian Academy (Week 7); Evangelical Christian at Lausanne Collegiate (Week 7); Grace Christian at Chattanooga Christian (Week 8); Franklin Road Academy at Battle Ground Academy (Week 8); Webb at Chattanooga Christian (Week 10); CAK at Grace Christian (Week 10); Webb at CAK (Week 11); Christ Presbyterian Academy at Franklin Road Academy (Week 11); Battle Ground Academy at Lipscomb Academy (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, from #1 seed to #5 and #1 to #6 for West.

  • East: Grace Christian, Chattanooga Christian, CAK, Webb, Boyd-Buchanan.
  • Middle: Lipscomb Academy, Christ Presbyterian Academy, Battle Ground Academy, Franklin Road Academy, Goodpasture Christian.
  • West: Evangelical Christian, Lausanne Collegiate, First Assembly Christian, St. George’s, Harding Academy, Northpoint Christian.

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Lipscomb Academy (II-AA Middle #1) vs. Evangelical Christian (II-AA West #1), Thursday, December 5.

II-AAA

WHAT’S CHANGED: How about this: the preseason #1 team in the state is now projected to finish third in its region (Brentwood Academy), and the preseason #3 is expected to miss the playoffs altogether (Knoxville Catholic). McCallie, somewhat out of nowhere, looks like the best team in the state and in this class. Because of how hyper-competitive this class is, a team like Ensworth can be one of the ten best teams in the state…..and also be fourth in its own region. It’s nuts, man. Briarcrest Christian has surprised a lot of people positively; on the flip side, this is one of the more disappointing Montgomery Bell Academy teams anyone can recall.

TOP 10 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. McCallie
    2. Brentwood Academy
    3. Baylor
    4. Ensworth
    5. Briarcrest Christian
    6. Memphis University
    7. Montgomery Bell Academy
    8. Knox Catholic
    9. Christian Brothers
    10. Pope John Paul II

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: McCallie at Baylor (Week 7); Brentwood Academy at Knox Catholic (Week 7); Briarcrest Christian at Christian Brothers (Week 7); Montgomery Bell Academy at Pope John Paul II (Week 7); Knox Catholic at Baylor (Week 9); Memphis University at Pope John Paul II (Week 9); Ensworth at Brentwood Academy (Week 10); Ensworth at McCallie (Week 11); Baylor at Brentwood Academy (Week 11); Christian Brothers at Montgomery Bell Academy (Week 11); Memphis University at Briarcrest Christian (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • East: McCallie, Baylor, Brentwood Academy, Ensworth.
  • West: Briarcrest Christian, Montgomery Bell Academy, Memphis University, Christian Brothers.

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Baylor (II-AAA East #2) vs. McCallie (II-AAA East #1), Thursday, December 5.

Who’s surprising everyone?

By nature of kids being kids, ratings are going to have a ton of variance. Still, high school football teams mostly oscillate within a reasonable expectation – of the 342 teams I cover, 308 are expected to end up within three wins of their original expectation. However, that leaves 34 teams that have either seriously over- or under-achieved to date. Let’s narrow that down to the five biggest surprises on each side. In the interest of being kind, I’m only writing capsules on teams that have over-achieved; I can’t imagine that anyone, especially players and fans of teams mentioned, want to read about how badly their team has missed expectations.

OVERACHIEVERS:

  1. Fayetteville (5-0, 1A-5, +7.16 wins over expectation). SEVEN POINT ONE SIX!!!!!! This is the third year I’ve done this, and just once has a team even breached +5. Fayetteville went 1-9 last year and has completely reversed course; they’re on track to finish 10-0, with a 71% chance of doing so. What an immense turnaround by new head coach Kenny Morson.
  2. Westview (4-1, 3A-7, +5.26 wins). To be quite honest, I don’t know if these projections quite understood that Westview would be unearthing a four-star quarterback that Alabama and Auburn are both desperate to get. While the offense is, obviously, much better (17.2 more points per game in 2019), the defense has improved quite a bit, too, holding Gibson Co. and Dresden to a combined 16 points. Matt McConnell is their first-year head coach with a record of 54-14 overall now, having already engineered one complete turnaround at Waverly Central. It seems like he’s destined for brighter things.
  3. Cherokee (5-0, 5A-1, +4.59 wins). Check out Cherokee! One of the more consistently okay programs in the state (in the last 14 years, they’ve finished with exactly five losses seven times!) appears to be capital-B Back, exploding past everyone’s expectations to be on track for a 7-3ish season. The key difference from last year to now is clearly the defense, which has gone from being one of the worst units in East Tennessee to one of the best – a 23-point-per-game improvement.
  4. Fayette Ware (4-0, 4A-8, +4.57 wins). It really wasn’t that long ago – 2008 to 2014 – when Fayette Ware lost 66 straight games across seven seasons. This millennium alone, they’re gone winless ten times. Now, out of basically nowhere, they’ve emerged as a shocking playoff team from 4A-8 with a 12% chance at going undefeated. This is one of my favorite stories of the year.
  5. Copper Basin (4-1, 1A-3, +4.52 wins). In a nod to a team on the negative side of this list, Copper Basin took a result that would have been stunning preseason – a 46-27 win over Whitwell – and made it look easy. Copper Basin last finished with a winning record in 2014 and has essentially done very little outside of one 10-win season in 2010; considering they’re on track for a 7-8 win season, they should have a lot to celebrate.

Honorable mentions: Loudon (+4.52 wins), Boyd-Buchanan (+4.25 wins), Knoxville West (+4.13 wins), Gallatin (+4.08 wins), Dobyns-Bennett (+4.01).

UNDERACHIEVERS:

  1. Whitwell (0-5, 1A-3, -6.45 wins under expectation).
  2. Polk County (0-5, 2A-3, -5.69 wins).
  3. Fulton (0-5, 5A-3, -5.67 wins).
  4. York Institute (2-3, 3A-4, -4.54 wins).
  5. Northeast (0-5, 5A-7, -4.50 wins).

Who can still go undefeated?

Per my spreadsheet, it looks like there’s still 45 teams left with a chance to go undefeated. All of these teams are at least 4-0, and around 75% of them are 5-0. Some of them even play each other! (A special shoutout to the incredible Powell/Knoxville West game coming up soon.) Here’s how the teams rank from 1 to 45, in terms of odds of going undefeated.

    1. Freedom Prep Academy (5-0, 1A-8, 95.69% odds of going undefeated)
    2. Oakland (5-0, 6A-3, 94.41%)
    3. Peabody (5-0, 2A-7, 86.93%)
    4. Huntingdon (5-0, 1A-6, 84.68%)
    5. Maryville (4-0, 6A-2, 82.42%)
    6. Fayetteville (5-0, 1A-5, 70.74%)
    7. Houston (5-0, 6A-7, 68.55%)
    8. Covington (5-0, 3A-7, 65.78%)
    9. Livingston Academy (5-0, 4A-3, 62.85%)
    10. Pearl-Cohn (5-0, 3A-5, 61.13%)
    11. Forrest (5-0, 2A-5, 60.96%)
    12. South Greene (5-0, 2A-1, 54.67%)
    13. David Crockett (4-0, 5A-1, 54.08%)
    14. Gallatin (5-0, 5A-6, 52.37%)
    15. Summit (5-0, 5A-5, 39.85%)
    16. McCallie (5-0, II-AAA East, 38.36%)
    17. Elizabethton (4-0, 4A-1, 36.92%)
    18. Red Bank (5-0, 3A-3, 35.76%)
    19. Powell (5-0, 5A-3, 35.17%)
    20. Dobyns-Bennett (4-0, 6A-1, 34.39%)
    21. Lake Co. (4-0, 1A-7, 30.49%)
    22. Briarcrest Christian (5-0, II-AAA West, 30.32%)
    23. Knoxville West (5-0, 5A-3, 27.48%)
    24. Meigs Co. (5-0, 2A-2, 26.99%)
    25. Central (5-0, 5A-2, 25.99%)
    26. Loudon (5-0, 3A-3, 20.67%)
    27. Beech (5-0, 5A-6, 17.53%)
    28. University School of Jackson (4-0, II-A West, 16.83%)
    29. South Pittsburg (5-0, 1A-3, 16.42%)
    30. Nolensville (4-0, 4A-4, 15.20%)
    31. Nashville Christian (4-0, II-A West, 14.44%)
    32. Clay Co. (5-0, 1A-4, 13.76%)
    33. Greenfield (5-0, 1A-7, 12.45%)
    34. Fayette Ware (4-0, 4A-8, 11.73%)
    35. Monterey (5-0, 1A-4, 10.53%)
    36. Houston Co. (5-0, 2A-6, 7.95%)
    37. Rhea Co. (4-0, 5A-4, 5.81%)
    38. GPittman (5-0, 3A-2, 5.64%)
    39. Baylor (5-0, II-AAA East, 5.20%)
    40. East Nashville (5-0, 3A-5, 4.98%)
    41. South Gibson (5-0, 3A-7, 4.94%)
    42. CAK (5-0, II-AA East, 4.35%)
    43. McMinn Co. (4-0, 6A-2, 0.55%)
    44. Cherokee (5-0, 5A-1, 0.32%)
    45. Knoxville Halls (5-0, 5A-2, 0.28%)

We’re on track for around 15-16 undefeated teams in the end, though there were around 20 last season. Six of these teams actually play each other this week: South Pittsburg (5-0) at Red Bank (5-0), Cherokee (5-0) at Elizabethton (4-0), and Powell (5-0) at Knoxville Halls (5-0). That’s pretty good!

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