Tennessee high school football projections, week 6

Officially the midpoint week of the Tennessee high school football season! I wrote about checking how things were going state-wide earlier this week; now, we can look at this week in particular, game-by-game. Last week, my projections went 138-28 (83.1%), almost exactly what was expected (138.8-27.2, or 83.6%). The projections are now 671-187 (78.2%) on the full season.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Last week was a weird one – ten games ended with a one-point margin, which is the most of any week this year…but only 14 other games ended with a margin of seven or less, and 37 games were decided by 40+ points. The best game was clearly Portland/West Creek, an insane game that West Creek won, 51-50. The biggest upset of the week was Greenbrier over White House-Heritage (3.3% odds of happening), which was merely a team on a nine-game losing streak defeating a team that was 3-1 with wins by scores of 42-13, 34-7, and 42-0.

This week should be more competitive. 26 games have a projected margin of four points or less, while 18 additional games are expected to be decided by single digits. There’s still a lot of expected blowouts, to be sure, but that’s the nature of in-season play.

Favorites are expected to go 130.4-32.6 (80%), which is about 3% lower than last week. More upsets, possibly! Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 5:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 76-55 (58%); 8-4 last week
  • 60-69%: 101-57 (63.9%); 14-9 last week
  • 70-79%: 96-48 (66.7%); 17-7 last week
  • 80-89%: 128-16 (88.9%); 29-4 last week
  • 90-99%: 269-12 (95.7%); 70-4 last week

Again, for the most part, these are about exactly where I would expect them to be…except for the unusual stinginess of the 70-79% group. However, over the last three weeks, that group has gone 61-25 (70.9%), so there could be a long-term rise coming. These are the things I force myself to keep track of.

Now, for this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

  • Memphis Business Academy 0 at Freedom Prep Academy 56
  • Manassas 20 at KIPP Collegiate 17
  • Summertown 26 at Loretto 16
  • Hamilton 2 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 38
  • Washington 14 at Middle College 31
  • Hillcrest 14 at Trezevant 27
  • Sevier Co. 21 at William Blount 30 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)

Friday

  • Tyner Academy 10 at Alcoa 39
  • Jefferson Co. 15 at Anderson Co. 39
  • Smyrna 40 at Antioch 5
  • Sheffield 0 at Arlington 49
  • Brainerd 6 at Austin-East 42
  • East Nashville 25 at Battle Ground Academy 23
  • Memphis East 31 at Bluff City 10
  • Fayette Ware 29 at Bolivar Central 15
  • Northpoint Christian 26 at Bolton 17
  • Christ Presbyterian Academy 15 at Brentwood 40
  • West Toronto Prep 2 at Brentwood Academy 44
  • Madison Ridgeland Academy (MS) 20 at Briarcrest Christian 28
  • Kingsbury 9 at Brighton 43
  • Chattanooga Christian 24 at CAK 26
  • Nashville Overton 9 at Cane Ridge 39
  • South-Doyle 37 at Carter 8
  • Shelbyville Central 33 at Centennial 25
  • Knox Central (KY) 7 at Central 39
  • East Hickman Co. 15 at Cheatham Co. Central 30
  • Adamsville 26 at Chester Co. 16
  • South Greene 35 at Chuckey-Doak 20
  • Dyer Co. 30 at Clarksville 25
  • Avery Co. (NC) 37 at Cloudland 13
  • Cookeville 32 at Coffee Co. Central 16
  • Zion Christian Academy 28 at Collinwood 20
  • Cascade 24 at Community 28
  • North Georgia (GA) 16 at Copper Basin 37
  • Whitehaven 32 at Cordova 17
  • Middle Tennessee Christian 16 at Cornersville 34
  • Ripley 5 at Covington 48
  • Sycamore 9 at Creek Wood 35
  • Dobyns-Bennett 43 at Daniel Boone 14
  • Tipton-Rosemark Academy 21 at Davidson Academy 38
  • Cannon Co. 21 at DeKalb Co. 26
  • Grace Baptist Academy 8 at Donelson Christian Academy 36
  • Mitchell 21 at Douglass [Frederick] 19
  • Signal Mountain 21 at East Ridge 22
  • Byrns [Jo] 13 at East Robertson 28
  • Cherokee 21 at Elizabethton 41
  • Collierville 16 at Evangelical Christian 28
  • Maryville 38 at Farragut 10
  • Germantown 22.3 at Father Ryan 22.1
  • Jackson Christian 14 at Fayette Academy 37
  • Richland 10 at Fayetteville 38
  • Lawrence Co. 12 at Forrest 34
  • Grundy Co. 10 at Franklin Co. 39
  • RePublic 0 at Franklin Road Academy 53
  • Rhea Co. 25 at Gibbs 20
  • Page 35 at Giles Co. 23
  • Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 35 at Gleason 18
  • Whites Creek 29 at Glencliff 21
  • Hillwood 26 at Goodpasture Christian 37
  • Coalfield 27 at Gordonsville 16
  • Trinity Academy Tri-Cities 10 at GPittman 39
  • Fairview 35 at Greenbrier 20
  • Fulton Co. (KY) 16 at Greenfield 36
  • Fulton City (KY) 6 at Halls 47
  • Johnson Co. 15 at Hampton 29
  • Melrose 14 at Hardin Co. 30
  • Knoxville West 32 at Hardin Valley 10
  • McNairy Central 37 at Harding Academy 15
  • Montgomery Central 38 at Harpeth 6
  • Rockwood 25 at Harriman 14
  • Independence 32 at Hendersonville 21
  • Kenwood 5 at Henry Co. 35
  • Lewis Co. 32 at Hickman Co. 14
  • Boyd-Buchanan 37 at Hixson 17
  • Milan 21 at Huntingdon 38
  • Dyersburg 27.8 at Jackson North Side 28.4
  • Union City 20 at Jackson South Side 24
  • North Greene 13 at Jellico 38
  • Campbell Co. 33 at Karns 30
  • Friendship Christian 35 at King’s Academy 21
  • Stone Memorial 16 at Kingston 28
  • Science Hill 19 at Knox Catholic 31
  • Powell 36 at Knoxville Halls 14
  • Westview 30.6 at Lake Co. 30.8
  • Wooddale 25 at Lausanne Collegiate 27
  • Beech 27 at Lebanon 18
  • Greenback 39 at Lenoir City 15
  • Crockett Co. 15 at Lexington 24
  • Craigmont 19 at Liberty Tech Magnet 28
  • Huntland 38 at Lookout Valley 9
  • Polk Co. 0 at Loudon 48
  • Trousdale Co. 28 at Macon Co. 12
  • Waverly Central 42 at McEwen 18
  • Franklin 30 at McGavock 11
  • Bearden 15 at McMinn Co. 28
  • McMinn Central 7 at Meigs Co. 42
  • Christian Brothers 23 at Memphis Central 20
  • Fairley 10 at Memphis University 39
  • Tellico Plains 23 at Midway 26
  • First Assembly Christian 22.5 at Millington Central 23.1
  • Jackson Co. 10 at Monterey 34
  • Ensworth 20 at Montgomery Bell Academy 15
  • Eagleville 30 at Moore Co. 23
  • Maplewood 14 at Mount Juliet 31
  • Wayne Co. 15 at Mount Pleasant 39
  • Memphis Overton 12 at Munford 38
  • Clarksville Academy 8 at Nashville Christian 41
  • Columbia Central 19 at Nolensville 32
  • West Creek 27.3 at Northeast 27.1
  • Union Co. 33 at Northview 14
  • Clinton 14 at Oak Ridge 40
  • Red Boiling Springs 21 at Oakdale 23
  • Westwood 24 at Oakhaven 17
  • Dresden 23 at Obion Co. 30
  • Upperman 26 at Oneida 15
  • Scotts Hill 35 at Perry Co. 10
  • Sullivan North 31 at Pigeon Forge 14
  • Christian Co. (KY) 12 at Pope John Paul II 38
  • South Pittsburg 21 at Red Bank 30
  • Southwind 24 at Ridgeway 25
  • Blackman 24 at Riverdale 27 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • Camden Central 28 at Riverside 18
  • Oakland 59 at Rockvale 0
  • Dickson Co. 13 at Rossview 29
  • King Prep 30 at Rossville Christian Academy 24
  • Pickett Co. 19 at Sale Creek 31
  • Cumberland Gap 7 at Scott 30
  • Bledsoe Co. 23 at Sequatchie Co. 21
  • Heritage 17 at Seymour 33
  • Grace Christian 35 at Silverdale Academy 15
  • Livingston Academy 32 at Smith Co. 18
  • Ooltewah 24 at Soddy Daisy 25
  • Middleton 21 at South Fulton 43
  • Haywood 26 at South Gibson 28
  • Marshall Co. 31 at Springfield 19
  • Raleigh-Egypt 14 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 31
  • Kirby 37 at St. George’s 22
  • Stewarts Creek 42 at Station Camp 5
  • McKenzie 28 at Stewart Co. 23
  • Hunters Lane 5 at Stratford 40
  • David Crockett 52 at Sullivan Central 2
  • Unicoi Co. 35 at Sullivan East 18
  • Northwest 8 at Summit 42
  • Sequoyah 9 at Sweetwater 46
  • Abingdon (VA) 18 at Tennessee 32
  • Lincoln Co. 15 at Tullahoma 30
  • Hancock Co. 17 at Twin Springs (VA) 30
  • Happy Valley 44 at Unaka 1
  • Columbia Academy 8 at University School of Jackson 34
  • Cumberland Co. 10 at Walker Valley 39
  • Siegel 25 at Warren Co. 24
  • White House 19 at Watertown 34
  • Notre Dame 23 at Webb 31
  • Grace Christian Academy 23 at Webb Bell Buckle 30
  • Gibson Co. 30 at West Carroll 16
  • McCallie 36 at West Forsyth (GA) 9
  • Cosby 9 at West Greene 40
  • Clay Co. 21 at Westmoreland 23
  • Portland 23 at White House-Heritage 24
  • Bartlett 20 at White Station 28
  • Gallatin 33 at Wilson Central 13
  • White Co. 27 at York Institute 23

Saturday (?)

  • Hillsboro 14 at Pearl-Cohn 40 (5:00 PM CT)

163 games in all, 36 of them in Region play. Some of these are pretty darn important! Here are the five best games this week from my perspective, plus some honorable mentions.

  • East Nashville at Battle Ground Academy (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Well, this was setting up to be one of the best battles the mid-state will offer this year…until BGA got their doors blown off by Christ Presbyterian last week. Anyway, it’s still really good: East Nashville has started 5-0 without a ton of trouble, outside of their defensive strugglefest with Giles County. BGA is 4-1 with the lone loss. It’s hard to beat this game this week.
  • Haywood at South Gibson (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Haywood has followed up their 2018 4A title game run with another team worthy of title contention; they’re undefeated against state competition, though they did get blown out by Olive Branch (MS). South Gibson, meanwhile, has blown by most observers’ expectations, starting out 5-0 by the skin of their teeth. Their last three wins have come by a total of 18 points, all one-score victories; this will be an excellent proving grounds for them.
  • Madison-Ridgeland Academy (MS) at Briarcrest Christian (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This promises to be a fun one. Madison-Ridgeland demolished their first five opponents this season to the tune of a 241-29 score…and then lost at Philadelphia (MS), their first real threat on the schedule. Briarcrest, as highlighted in the midseason review, has blown past all expectations, with a 5-0 record and four wins over top 75 teams in the state. Briarcrest’s excellent defense will have their hands full with the Madison-Ridgeland offense, but on the flip side, it doesn’t appear that MRA’s defense is quite on the same level.
  • Westview at Lake Co. (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This might be the single most-enjoyable game of the week. Westview is having one of the most surprising seasons of all, starting out 4-1 in a year they weren’t expected to get to .500. They average 42 points a game behind Ty Simpson, a four-star QB recruit. Lake Co., meanwhile, has done everything expected of them; they are 4-0 with this game being the only meaningful barrier between them and a 10-0 season. Combined, these two teams are averaging over 86 points a game, and while Lake Co. has yet to allow more than 21 points in a game, they’ve also played just one offense averaging over 30.
  • South Pittsburg at Red Bank (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). It’s such a great thing that this game is happening. The two schools are two of Chattanooga’s best programs, but despite being only 40 minutes apart, they haven’t played each other in at least three decades. (I couldn’t verify it any further.) It’s a match-up of the #1 team in the state’s 1A poll versus the #4 team in the 3A poll. What more could we really want?
  • Honorable Mentions: Powell at Knoxville Halls (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Upperman at Oneida (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Blackman at Riverdale (Friday, 7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV); Marshall Co. at Springfield (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Columbia Central at Nolensville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cherokee at Elizabethton (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Chattanooga Christian at CAK (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link or below:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

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