Week seven has arrived! Last week was a remarkable one, as the projections went 139-23 (85.8%), well above their 129-33 expectation. This brings the season-long projection record to 810-210 (79.4%), just six wins short of an 80% hit rate. Out of a 1,020-game sample size, this is a pretty good rate to see, and it makes me feel confident that it’ll correctly project somewhere in the neighborhood of 77-83% of the playoff game winners.
As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:
Yet again, last week had a healthy amount of one-point games – ten, with Haywood/South Gibson’s wild 50-49 barnburner leading the pack. This time, though, there were a lot more single-digit games (42), fewer gigantic 40+ point blowouts (25), and the lowest projection error to date (12.19 points off the final score, on average). The average game was decided by 22.9 points, which sounds terrible until I tell you that it was the second-closest week of the year so far behind Week 1.
This week has 42 games projected within single-digits, which sounds great…but it also projects 22 40+ point blowouts and 72 games decided by 20 points or more. However: if it hits the expected average scoring margin this week of 21.5, it’ll be the best week of the year. Funny how Region play almost always ends up creating the best weeks.
Favorites are expected to go about 132.4-28.6 (82.3%), which should mean a slightly less predictable week. Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 6:
- 50-59% likely to win the game: 93-64 (59.2%); 17-9 last week
- 60-69%: 114-62 (64.8%); 13-5 last week
- 70-79%: 118-52 (69.4%); 22-4 last week
- 80-89%: 161-18 (89.9%); 33-2 last week
- 90-99%: 323-15 (95.6%); 54-3 last week
After weeks of promise, the 70-79% group is starting to course-correct; since Week 4, those teams have won 74.1% of their games. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the coin-flip tier (50-59%) and the almost-a-certainty tier (80-89%) regress some. Both 60-69% and 90-99% are almost perfectly in line with expectations.
Now, for this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.
Thursday
- Bearden 21 at Hardin Valley 22 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
- Raleigh-Egypt 42 at King Prep 6
- Kirby 52 at Kingsbury 2
- Trezevant 24 at KIPP Collegiate 15
- Brentwood Academy 31 at Knox Catholic 16 (8:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
- Mitchell 32 at Manassas 3
- Stewarts Creek 38 at McGavock 9
- Bluff City 23 at Memphis Business Academy 19
- Carter 25 at Morristown West 20
- Rossview 11 at Mount Juliet 33
- LaVergne 28 at Nashville Overton 18
Friday
- East Ridge 10 at Anderson Co. 43
- McCallie 26 at Baylor 15 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
- Hillsboro 19 at Beech 31 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
- Oakland 39 at Blackman 12
- Marion Co. 15 at Bledsoe Co. 28
- Cleveland 17 at Bradley Central 34
- Signal Mountain 25 at Brainerd 17
- Arlington 30 at Brighton 27
- Powell 46 at Campbell Co. 7
- Franklin 24 at Centennial 27
- Hardin Co. 51 at Chester Co. 0
- Lipscomb Academy 27 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 20
- Briarcrest Christian 29 at Christian Brothers 15
- Unicoi Co. 27.16 at Chuckey-Doak 27.19
- Davidson Academy 43 at Clarksville Academy 21
- Pickett Co. 0 at Clay Co. 50
- Cherokee 42 at Cocke Co. 24
- Rockvale 18 at Coffee Co. Central 27
- Huntingdon 49 at Collinwood 5
- Franklin Co. 17 at Columbia Central 33
- Warren Co. 13 at Cookeville 36
- Lookout Valley 8 at Copper Basin 42
- Collierville 20 at Cordova 24
- Millington Central 40 at Craigmont 10
- White House-Heritage 20 at Creek Wood 27
- Obion Co. 13 at Crockett Co. 36
- Wartburg 30 at Cumberland Gap 17
- Ravenwood 45 at Dickson Co. 1
- Memphis Nighthawks 5 at Donelson Christian Academy 42
- South Fulton 29 at Dresden 31
- Northwest 15 at Dyer Co. 40
- Father Ryan 5 at Ensworth 33
- Camden Central 20 at Fairview 31
- Science Hill 20 at Farragut 28
- Bolton 8 at Fayette Ware 35
- Cornersville 15 at Fayetteville 30
- Grace Christian Academy 0 at Friendship Christian 57
- McKenzie 17 at Gibson Co. 30
- Hillwood 44 at Glencliff 15 (10/2/19 NOTE: Glencliff has chosen to forfeit the remainder of this season’s games.)
- Franklin Road Academy 32 at Goodpasture Christian 21
- Sullivan East 20 at Grainger 32
- Montgomery Central 37 at Greenbrier 13
- Cannon Co. 33 at Grundy Co. 17
- Adamsville 25 at Halls 18
- Fairley 50 at Hamilton 1
- Jellico 23 at Hancock Co. 24
- St. George’s 32 at Harding Academy 27
- Ripley 13 at Haywood 42
- Wilson Central 21 at Hendersonville 23
- Germantown 17 at Henry Co. 32
- McMinn Co. 52 at Heritage 0
- Scotts Hill 15 at Hickman Co. 24
- Douglass [Frederick] 23 at Hillcrest 22
- Soddy Daisy 37 at Hixson 11
- Bartlett 9 at Houston 41
- Chattanooga Central 12 at Howard Tech 36
- Greenfield 41 at Humboldt 13
- Gallatin 50 at Hunters Lane 0
- Mount Pleasant 25 at Huntland 24
- Brentwood 30 at Independence 27
- Columbia Academy 20 at Jackson Christian 24
- Cascade 25 at Jackson Co. 20
- Dobyns-Bennett 40 at Jefferson Co. 10
- Claiborne 18 at Johnson Co. 29
- West Creek 15 at Kenwood 29
- Central 31 at Knoxville Halls 16
- Clinton 3 at Knoxville West 44
- Gleason 0 at Lake Co. 62
- Evangelical Christian 34 at Lausanne Collegiate 19
- Marshall Co. 37 at Lawrence Co. 7
- Walker Valley 31 at Lenoir City 22
- Eagleville 27 at Lewis Co. 26
- Jackson South Side 10 at Lexington 24
- Jackson North Side 33 at Liberty Tech Magnet 14
- DeKalb Co. 8 at Livingston Academy 36
- Community 18 at Loretto 35
- McMinn Central 8 at Loudon 41
- Stone Memorial 13 at Macon Co. 29
- Spring Hill 14 at Maplewood 30
- Fulton 0 at Maryville 52
- Bolivar Central 10 at McNairy Central 37
- Wooddale 30 at Melrose 11
- King’s Academy 29 at Middle Tennessee Christian 28
- McEwen 48 at Middleton 13
- Coalfield 22.4 at Midway 22.3
- Covington 36 at Milan 17
- Byrns [Jo] 6 at Monterey 36
- Daniel Boone 38 at Morristown East 19
- Tullahoma 15 at Nolensville 28
- Clarksville 31 at Northeast 22
- Hatley (MS) 21.6 at Northpoint Christian 22.4
- Alcoa 57 at Northview 0
- CAK 31 at Notre Dame 27
- Karns 17 at Oak Ridge 45
- Memphis East 31 at Oakhaven 10
- Harriman 7 at Oliver Springs 38
- Rockwood 7 at Oneida 26
- Rhea Co. 27 at Ooltewah 21
- East Nashville 19 at Pearl-Cohn 35
- GPittman 51 at Pigeon Forge 0
- Montgomery Bell Academy 27 at Pope John Paul II 15
- White House 21 at Portland 27
- Gordonsville 41 at Red Boiling Springs 7
- Stratford 49 at RePublic 0
- Zion Christian Academy 20 at Richland 31
- Munford 19 at Ridgeway 33
- Houston Co. 19 at Riverside 21
- Austin-East 30 at Scott 16
- East Hamilton 47 at Sequoyah 0
- Gibbs 27 at Sevier Co. 21
- South-Doyle 44 at Seymour 2
- Rosa Fort (MS) 49 at Sheffield 0
- Lincoln Co. 14 at Shelbyville Central 38
- Riverdale 41 at Siegel 11
- Boyd-Buchanan 33 at Silverdale Academy 17
- Sequatchie Co. 23 at Smith Co. 29
- Cane Ridge 31 at Smyrna 20
- Westview 22 at South Gibson 35
- Cosby 0 at South Greene 54
- Memphis Overton 6 at Southwind 41
- Memphis University 46 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 0
- Lebanon 35 at Station Camp 6
- Cheatham Co. Central 11 at Stewart Co. 36
- Greeneville 56 at Sullivan Central 4
- Hampton 28 at Sullivan North 17
- Union Co. 18 at Sullivan South 36
- Forrest 29 at Summertown 11
- Page 18 at Summit 28
- Oakdale 16 at Sunbright 27
- Red Bank 39 at Sweetwater 16
- Harpeth 14 at Sycamore 29
- Tyner Academy 38 at Tellico Plains 12
- Tipton-Rosemark Academy 17 at Trinity Christian Academy 29
- East Robertson 5 at Trousdale Co. 40
- Cloudland 39 at Unaka 13
- Peabody 40 at Union City 8
- Nashville Christian 20 at University School of Jackson 24
- Tennessee 47 at Volunteer 11
- Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 23 at Washington 19
- East Hickman Co. 16 at Waverly Central 42
- Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 20 at Wayne Co. 30
- Grace Christian 24 at Webb 26
- North Greene 8 at West Greene 43
- Watertown 28 at Westmoreland 20
- Freedom Prep Academy 44 at Westwood 5
- Memphis Central 20 at White Station 26
- Giles Co. 41 at Whites Creek 17
- Sale Creek 19 at Whitwell 30
- Elizabethton 44 at William Blount 11
- Upperman 42 at York Institute 6
161 games in all, and 149 of them are in Region play. Nearly every game this week will have some amount of an effect on the state playoffs, which means a lot of these games have serious, heightened importance. I whittled it down to a rough list of 14 games worth keeping an eye on, but these five are the best, from my perspective:
- McCallie at Baylor (Friday, 7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV). I mean, what more could you want? It’s the best class in the state (II-AAA) with two of the eight or so best teams in Tennessee playing and it’s a historic rivalry AND they’re both undefeated. If McCallie wins this one, it’s hard to see how they lose a game against Tennessee competition (Clearwater Academy from Florida does come to town in Week 10, and that figures to be a close one). Baylor, meanwhile, has lost four of five against McCallie after winning six straight in the rivalry from 2009 to 2013; this is their best team since 2011, so it would be ideal for them to take advantage.
- Brentwood at Independence (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Two teams with better-than-expected seasons, both sitting at 5-1, both with a real chance to make a run in the state playoffs. (Collectively, one of Brentwood, Ravenwood, and Independence has around a 42% shot to make the state title game.) After a Week 1 loss to Summit, Independence has won five straight. Lately, this series has been pretty close; four of the last five games were decided by 11 points or less, three by 3 points or fewer.
- Brentwood Academy at Knox Catholic (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2). Yes, ESPN2! This was a little better of a game in preseason when BA was the #1 team in the state and KCHS was, at worst, top eight, but it’s still a game between a top four team and a top 25 team on national television, and we don’t get that very often. Catholic’s playoff odds become dire if they can’t find a way to win this game or the Baylor game in Week 9. All Brentwood has to do to wrap up a playoff spot is win two of their final three Region games, all of which they’re double-digit favorites in.
- Briarcrest Christian at Christian Brothers (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This is Briarcrest’s best team in possibly two decades, a group stacked with great playmakers on both sides of the ball. Christian Brothers, meanwhile, has mostly dominated this rivalry as of late: winners of four of the last five and 11 of 14. For Briarcrest to truly prove itself as a II-AAA title contender, this is a win they badly need.
- East Nashville at Pearl-Cohn (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Essentially everything you’d want from 3A football. These are two of the four best teams in 3A, playing just four miles apart; all it requires is a ride across the Jefferson Street bridge to get from one school to another. My system has been high on Pearl-Cohn all season long, and it’s mostly paid off, but East Nashville is far from anything to sneeze at. The Eagles just beat BGA on the road last Friday and they’ve shut out four opponents. It’s a shame that only one of these two teams can advance past the 3A quarterfinals.
- Honorable Mentions: Page at Summit (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Nashville Christian at University School of Jackson (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Knoxville Central at Knoxville Halls (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Eagleville at Lewis Co. (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cane Ridge at Smyrna (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Houston Co. at Riverside (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Watertown at Westmoreland (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); White House-Heritage at Creek Wood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Coalfield at Midway (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).
As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link or below:
Best of luck to all teams involved this week!
Stats by Will 