Tennessee high school football projections, week 9

Welcome back for another week! First off, on a personal note: thank you to everyone for the kind words and messages regarding my marriage two weeks back. It’s been a blast so far, and a lot of you played some form of a role in it. Thanks!

Onto the football part. Last week’s projections went 90-19 (82.6%), the fourth-straight week of 82% or higher. This brings the season-long win total to 1036-255 (80.2%), which is slightly above where I’d hoped to be at this point. At this point last year across a much smaller 241-game sample size, the hit rate was 84.6%, but to be hitting levels that high was fairly unsustainable. (The suggested win percentage was more in the range of 79-81%.)

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Across a much smaller sample of games than usual due to fall break, last week’s games were kind of boring: just three one-point games, only 23 of 109 (21.1%) within single digits, and 48 (44%, or almost half!) of all games being decided by 30 points or more. It wasn’t a great week for the most part. Let’s hope this week is more entertaining, because the sheer star power of the best games is certainly promising.

Favorites are expected to go around 118.9-25.1 (82.5%), which isn’t great, but would be a slightly less predictable week than last. There’s a big run of games – 62 in all – that are projected anywhere from 0.1 to 14 points, though that number is equaled by how many 22+ point margins are expected.

Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 8:

• 50-59% likely to win the game: 111-79 (58.4%); 8-7 last week
• 60-69%: 141-72 (66.2%); 13-5 last week
• 70-79%: 151-64 (70.2%); 11-4 last week
• 80-89%: 203-23 (89.8%); 20-3 last week
• 90-99%: 429-16 (96.7%); 38-0 last week

An actual pat-on-the-back moment: for the first time all season, every percentage group is within its expected range. Hooray!

Onto things people actually care about. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Monday

• Freedom Prep Academy 39 at Washington 10 (Actual score: Freedom Prep Academy 34, Washington 12.)

Tuesday

• Memphis Business Academy 11 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 34 (Actual score: Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 43, Memphis Business Academy 6.)

Wednesday

• Manassas 26 at Hamilton 19 (Actual score: Manassas 36, Hamilton 34.)
• Middle College 24 at Memphis East 22 (Actual score: Middle College 60, Memphis East 12).

Thursday

• Lincoln Co. 17 at Battle Ground Academy 32
• Hillsboro 22 at Cane Ridge 32
• Stratford 17 at East Nashville 31
• Bearden 16 at Farragut 28 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
• Hunters Lane 35 at Glencliff 13
• Watertown 44 at Jackson Co. 4
• Douglass [Frederick] 17 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 23
• Fairley 33 at Trezevant 14
• Clay Co. 21 at White Co. 29

Friday

• Gibson Co. 26 at Adamsville 14
• Kingston 2 at Alcoa 43
• Pigeon Forge 0 at Austin-East 48
• Knox Catholic 19 at Baylor 27
• Station Camp 0 at Beech 50
• William Blount 11 at Bradley Central 39
• Southwind 35 at Brighton 15
• Boyd-Buchanan 25 at CAK 29
• Stewart Co. 27 at Camden Central 23
• Fulton 25 at Campbell Co. 27
• Carter 4 at Central 38
• Anderson Co. 51 at Chattanooga Central 5
• St. Benedict at Auburndale 4 at Christian Brothers 41
• Chuckey-Doak 38 at Claiborne 15
• Jellico 11 at Cloudland 39
• Daniel Boone 42 at Cocke Co. 22
• Page 34 at Columbia Central 17
• Briarcrest Christian 34 at Cordova 11
• Richland 18 at Cornersville 30
• South Gibson 22 at Covington 29
• Haywood 34 at Crockett Co. 18
• Tennessee 22 at David Crockett 28
• Macon Co. 17 at DeKalb Co. 25
• Independence 44 at Dickson Co. 6
• Ripley 28 at Dyersburg 29
• Summertown 19 at Eagleville 26
• Sequoyah 6 at East Ridge 45
• Westmoreland 27 at East Robertson 18
• Greeneville 31 at Elizabethton 29 (7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV)
• Harding Academy 18 at First Assembly Christian 32
• Community 0 at Forrest 49
• Brentwood 36 at Franklin 9
• Lipscomb Academy 36 at Franklin Co. 7
• Mount Juliet Christian Academy 8 at Friendship Christian 40
• Hendersonville 16 at Gallatin 34
• RePublic 4 at Giles Co. 56
• Christ Presbyterian Academy 40 at Goodpasture Christian 17
• Fayetteville 38 at Gordonsville 6
• Trinity Academy Tri-Cities 15 at Grace Christian 38
• Middle Tennessee Christian 39 at Grace Christian Academy 18
• Gleason 8 at Greenfield 44
• South Greene 24 at Hampton 23
• Cumberland Gap 27 at Hancock Co. 13
• Lexington 14 at Hardin Co. 25
• Greenback 43 at Harriman 8
• Red Boiling Springs 9 at Hart Co. (KY) 41
• Karns 42 at Heritage 23
• Howard Tech 38 at Hixson 10
• Fulton City (KY) 7 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 43
• KIPP Collegiate 0 at Houston 60
• Waverly Central 22 at Houston Co. 30
• South Fulton 35 at Humboldt 27
• Chester Co. 3 at Jackson North Side 47
• Liberty Tech Magnet 16 at Jackson South Side 25
• Hardin Valley 22.6 at Jefferson Co. 22.7
• Donelson Christian Academy 29 at King’s Academy 24
• Ridgeway 49 at Kingsbury 2
• West Carroll 9 at Lake Co. 44
• Westwood 3 at Lausanne Collegiate 50
• McGavock 13 at LaVergne 35
• Stewarts Creek 25 at Lebanon 20
• Gibbs 36 at Lenoir City 13
• Loretto 15 at Lewis Co. 37
• Sale Creek 29 at Lookout Valley 18
• Sweetwater 16 at Loudon 35
• Spring Hill 7 at Marshall Co. 36
• Father Ryan 0 at McCallie 42
• Dyer Co. 28 at McCracken Co. (KY) 24
• Union City 22 at McKenzie 28
• Cleveland 17 at McMinn Co. 32
• McNairy Central 20 at Milan 30
• Fayette Ware 17 at Millington Central 27
• Huntland 25 at Moore Co. 23
• Dobyns-Bennett 52 at Morristown West 1
• Oak Ridge 19 at Mount Juliet 28
• Kirby 28 at Munford 27
• Jackson Christian 7 at Nashville Christian 39
• Antioch 10 at Nashville Overton 31
• Maplewood 12 at Nolensville 34
• Johnson Co. 38 at North Greene 10
• Chattanooga Christian 34 at Notre Dame 21
• Oliver Springs 47 at Oakdale 0
• Bluff City 12 at Oakhaven 23
• Riverdale 9 at Oakland 42 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
• Meigs Co. 24 at Oneida 16
• Maryville 42 at Ooltewah 8
• Halls 0 at Peabody 53
• Whites Creek 0 at Pearl-Cohn 62
• Huntingdon 63 at Perry Co. 0
• Bledsoe Co. 33 at Polk Co. 9
• Memphis University 30 at Pope John Paul II 17
• Knoxville West 20 at Powell 25
• Smyrna 5 at Ravenwood 42
• Brainerd 0 at Red Bank 52
• Soddy Daisy 14 at Rhea Co. 31 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
• Scotts Hill 9 at Riverside 32
• Blackman 44 at Rockvale 4
• Unaka 21 at Rye Cove (VA) 31
• Northview 5 at Scott 34
• York Institute 20 at Sequatchie Co. 29
• Seymour 24 at Sevier Co. 22
• Summit 22 at Shelbyville Central 27
• Cookeville 34 at Siegel 17
• McMinn Central 18 at Signal Mountain 28
• Cannon Co. 19 at Smith Co. 33
• Whitwell 0 at South Pittsburg 53
• Knoxville Halls 17 at South-Doyle 34
• Portland 21 at Springfield 29
• Evangelical Christian 45 at St. George’s 8
• Cumberland Co. 13 at Stone Memorial 34
• Grainger 34 at Sullivan Central 21
• Happy Valley 25 at Sullivan North 17
• Sullivan East 9 at Sullivan South 45
• Midway 33 at Sunbright 15
• Marion Co. 23 at Tellico Plains 26
• Columbia Academy 23 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 20
• Davidson Academy 40 at Trinity Christian Academy 21
• Cascade 0 at Trousdale Co. 46
• Lawrence Co. 7 at Tullahoma 34
• Webb Bell Buckle 0 at Tyner Academy 50
• West Greene 20 at Unicoi Co. 32
• Fayette Academy 22 at University School of Jackson 27
• Grundy Co. 0 at Upperman 55
• Morristown East 31 at Volunteer 28
• East Hamilton 26 at Walker Valley 17
• Coffee Co. Central 22 at Warren Co. 24
• Rockwood 28 at Wartburg 18
• McEwen 39 at Wayne Co. 16
• Silverdale Academy 11 at Webb 35
• Creek Wood 31 at White House 16
• Mount Pleasant 33 at Zion Christian Academy 19

144 games in all, and 119 of them are in Region play. Over the next three weeks, that number will stay high, as important battles and playoff spots will be decided. There are several really, really good games this week, and for the first time all year, I couldn’t narrow it down to just five to profile. Here are the six best games of Week 9, from my perspective.

• Knoxville West at Powell (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). This is the 5A Game of the Year, and probably the Knox County Game of the Year. Per my ratings, these are the two best teams in 5A, and it’s been pretty well-deserved. Not content with owning 5A-3, West decided to schedule four 6A-1 teams for their non-Region play….and went 4-0. Powell, meanwhile, is responsible for Greeneville and Anderson County’s only losses. The only thing standing in the way of a 10-0 season for these two teams is each other; the winner should be considered the 5A title favorite.
• Greeneville at Elizabethton (Friday, 7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV, also Facebook). And this is the 4A Game of the Year, certainly the Upper East Tennessee Game of the Year. These are the two best teams in 4A taking on each other as part of their now-yearly rivalry. Betsy’s just 2-10 in their last twelve against Greeneville, but this is also their best team in quite some time. Greeneville, meanwhile, has recovered nicely from their opening Thursday loss to Powell and has rarely been threatened since.
• Tennessee at David Crockett (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). The two best teams in 5A-1 – a deep four-team Region – get to play each other for the Region title. Win, and you get to avoid the Knoxville Central/South-Doyle winner until the quarterfinals and you get them at home. Lose, and you have to travel to the Central/S-D winner in the second round. Neither option is lovely, but you’d much rather be first than second.
• Knox Catholic at Baylor (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). This is East-ish Tennessee heavy so far, but for good reason – the four best games this week simply happen to be taking place in Eastern Time. After a home upset of Brentwood Academy two weeks ago, KCHS has to be riding high into this road battle with Baylor, a one-loss team with their only loss coming to the best team in the state. To feel truly safe about making the playoffs, both teams badly need this win, but Catholic needs it worse; they’d leave this game with a 1-3 Region record if so.
• Summit at Shelbyville Central (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Another phenomenal game. This is effectively a battle for second place in 5A-5 – Page has 75% odds of winning out plus they’ve already beaten both schools – but who cares? 5A-5 has three 6-1 or 7-1 teams plus a 5-2 team in fourth place. Getting a home playoff game here is massive, especially when the prize is getting to avoid the Gallatin/Beech loser in round one. (They would have to face the Gallatin/Beech winner in round two, though.)
• South Gibson at Covington (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This wasn’t a game I had big eyes on until Covington took a shocking loss at Milan two weeks ago as a sizable favorite. Now, Covington – who had very good odds of a 10-0 season – has to fend off a very strong South Gibson squad at home to win 3A-7, and even then, they need help from one of McNairy Central or Westview. It’s not completely pertinent that you win the Region, as even third place gets to play an okay-ish Melrose team, but extending your home field advantage as long as possible is always recommended.
• Honorable mentions: Boyd-Buchanan at CAK (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Stratford at East Nashville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); South Greene at Hampton (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Middle College at Memphis East (Wednesday, 7:00 PM CT); Fayette Ware at Millington Central (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Kirby at Munford (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Meigs Co. at Oneida (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

Here’s this week’s full projection sheet, which you can view at this link under Week 9 or right here:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!