Tennessee high school football projections, Week 10

Nine weeks down, just two weeks to go! The playoffs are almost here, and a lot of playoff spots will be claimed this week. Last week, these projections went 116-27 (81.1%), bringing them to 1152-282 (80.3%) on the season. From Week 5 onward, these projections have gone 619-121 (83.7%). It certainly could be worse.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Again, last week’s sample was slightly smaller than usual (143 games compared to the typical 160+), but it was a little disappointing nonetheless in terms of quality play. 27 of 143 (18.9%) games finished with a single-digit margin, while over double that number – 58 (40.6%) – finished with 30+ point margins. The Game of the Week was obviously Knoxville West/Powell, a game that ended regulation at 14-14 and finished with Powell stuffing a West two-point attempt to win 21-20.

This week, in theory, should be better. Favorites are expected to go 131.1-32.9 (79.9%), which is lower than the last several weeks. Perhaps it’s because so many quality Region games are saved for the end of the year.

Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 9:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 116-89 (56.6%); 5-10 last week
  • 60-69%: 153-80 (65.7%); 12-8 last week
  • 70-79%: 171-69 (71.3%); 20-5 last week
  • 80-89%: 222-25 (89.9%); 19-2 last week
  • 90-99%: 489-18 (96.5%); 60-2 last week

Two large upsets did happen: Northview (previously 0-8) over Scott as a 29-point underdog, along with Franklin County defeating Lipscomb Academy as a 29-point underdog. They aren’t the biggest of the year, but both were fairly remarkable. Outside of that, the biggest miss on a game was actually on a correct projection: Middle College, projected to defeat Memphis East by two points, won by 48. Week 9 delivered the second-best Absolute Error (the margin I’m off the projected score by) of the season: 12.29, just missing Week 6’s 12.19. The projections are getting better and better; my goal is to keep this number below 13 the rest of the way.

Here are Week 10’s scheduled games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Monday

  • King Prep 4 at Raleigh-Egypt 44 (NOTE: It appears King Prep forfeited this game, so it goes to the books as Raleigh-Egypt 1, King Prep 0.)

Tuesday

  • Craigmont 26 at Bolton 24 (Actual score: Bolton 6, Craigmont 0.) 

Thursday

  • Gallatin 27 at Beech 24
  • Tyner Academy 35 at Brainerd 11
  • Lewis Co. 27 at Camden Central 22
  • Clarksville Academy 16 at Columbia Academy 30
  • Rockvale 7 at Cookeville 41
  • Sheffield 0 at Covington 56
  • Anderson Co. 29 at East Hamilton 19
  • Howard Tech 25 at East Ridge 19
  • Whitwell 4 at Fayetteville 44
  • Shelbyville Central 40 at Franklin Co. 10
  • Tullahoma 29 at Giles Co. 25
  • Dresden 39 at Gleason 20
  • Lake Co. 38 at Greenfield 14
  • Sequatchie Co. 38 at Grundy Co. 12
  • Jackson South Side 6 at Haywood 41
  • Northeast 6 at Henry Co. 44
  • Middleton 0 at Huntingdon 71
  • Cornersville 23 at Huntland 23.3
  • Pigeon Forge 6 at Kingston 36
  • Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 26 at KIPP Collegiate 6
  • Smyrna 23 at LaVergne 25
  • McNairy Central 20 at Lexington 17
  • Page 37 at Lincoln Co. 12
  • Hickman Co. 21 at Loretto 24
  • Silverdale Academy 25 at Marion Co. 21
  • Kirby 41 at Memphis Overton 12
  • Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 14 at Middle College 29
  • Hamilton 0 at Mitchell 42
  • Station Camp 0 at Mount Juliet 44
  • Clarksville 36 at Northwest 20
  • Oak Ridge 16 at Powell 35 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Craigmont 17 at Raleigh-Egypt 29
  • Bradley Central 30 at Soddy Daisy 17
  • Kingsbury 0 at Southwind 51
  • Battle Ground Academy 34 at Spring Hill 12
  • Nashville Overton 3 at Stewarts Creek 42
  • Crockett Co. 19 at University School of Jackson 26
  • Watertown 20 at Upperman 32
  • Loudon 34 at Walker Valley 17
  • Lebanon 22 at Wilson Central 18

Friday

  • Riverside 22 at Adamsville 17
  • GPittman 12 at Alcoa 37
  • Copper Basin 25 at Andrews (NC) 26
  • McGavock 34 at Antioch 10
  • Collierville 31 at Arlington 20
  • King Prep 0 at Bartlett 67
  • Montgomery Bell Academy 17 at Baylor 21
  • Morristown West 11 at Bearden 36
  • Siegel 10 at Blackman 41
  • Westwood 32 at Bluff City 8
  • Notre Dame 21 at Boyd-Buchanan 37
  • Knox Catholic 21 at Brentwood 31
  • Ensworth 19 at Brentwood Academy 20 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • Manassas 0 at Briarcrest Christian 60
  • Ridgeway 36 at Brighton 17
  • Gordonsville 22 at Byrns [Jo] 18
  • Forrest 40 at Cascade 8
  • Pope John Paul II 33 at Centennial 23
  • Hixson 24 at Chattanooga Central 29
  • Webb 21 at Chattanooga Christian 25
  • Sycamore 28 at Cheatham Co. Central 14
  • Bolivar Central 32 at Chester Co. 16
  • Wooddale 16 at Christian Brothers 27
  • Campbell Co. 29 at Clinton 25
  • Oakland 49 at Coffee Co. Central 0
  • McEwen 38 at Community 15
  • Jellico 17 at Cosby 32
  • Bledsoe Co. 35 at Cumberland Co. 8
  • Claiborne 15 at Cumberland Gap 28
  • David Crockett 34 at Daniel Boone 20 (7:00 PM ET, Tri-Cities CW)
  • Science Hill 11 at Dobyns-Bennett 40
  • Grace Christian Academy 5 at Donelson Christian Academy 48
  • Trezevant 17 at Douglass [Frederick] 29
  • Zion Christian Academy 27 at East Hickman Co. 23
  • Harpeth 13 at East Robertson 33
  • Sullivan South 13 at Elizabethton 44
  • Hillcrest 8 at Fairley 38
  • Dickson Co. 14 at Fairview 33
  • Lipscomb Academy 25 at Father Ryan 15
  • Davidson Academy 34 at Fayette Academy 32
  • First Assembly Christian 20.8 at Fayette Ware 20.5
  • Nolensville 26 at Franklin 16
  • Memphis East 9 at Freedom Prep Academy 42
  • Knoxville West 37 at Fulton 8
  • Carter 16 at Gibbs 26
  • Fulton City (KY) 0 at Gibson Co. 56
  • East Nashville 39 at Goodpasture Christian 14
  • CAK 19 at Grace Christian 34
  • Midway 9 at Greenback 43
  • Grainger 10 at Greeneville 45
  • Unaka 0 at Hampton 53
  • West Greene 33 at Hancock Co. 14
  • Trinity Academy Tri-Cities 23 at Happy Valley 20
  • Milan 23 at Hardin Co. 28
  • Farragut 30 at Hardin Valley 16
  • St. Benedict at Auburndale 32 at Harding Academy 21
  • Oakdale 5 at Harriman 36
  • Ooltewah 46 at Heritage 10
  • Hillwood 14 at Hillsboro 45
  • Collinwood 23 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 21
  • Cordova 13 at Houston 37
  • Scotts Hill 31 at Humboldt 21
  • Pearl-Cohn 36 at Independence 23
  • Trinity Christian Academy 22 at Jackson Christian 24
  • Cloudland 19 at Johnson Co. 29
  • Rhea Co. 41 at Karns 17
  • Jackson North Side 28 at Kenwood 14
  • Grace Baptist Academy 11 at King’s Academy 41
  • Summertown 19 at Lawrence Co. 20
  • Dyersburg 29 at Liberty Tech Magnet 22
  • McMinn Co. 12 at Maryville 34
  • Clearwater Academy International (FL) 20 at McCallie 29
  • Obion Co. 17 at McKenzie 32
  • Polk Co. 0 at Meigs Co. 51 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
  • Memphis Central 30 at Melrose 10
  • Oakhaven 20 at Memphis Business Academy 22
  • Memphis Nighthawks 20 at Halls 29
  • White Station 14 at Memphis University 33
  • Mount Juliet Christian Academy 22 at Middle Tennessee Christian 27
  • Clay Co. 18 at Monterey 30
  • Eagleville 29 at Mount Pleasant 26
  • Evangelical Christian 32 at Munford 17
  • Tipton-Rosemark Academy 6 at Nashville Christian 38
  • Lausanne Collegiate 38 at Northpoint Christian 12
  • Coalfield 17 at Oliver Springs 25 (7:30 PM ET, BBB-TV)
  • Washington 0 at Peabody 49
  • Wayne Co. 32 at Perry Co. 20
  • Creek Wood 27 at Portland 16
  • Cane Ridge 22 at Ravenwood 33
  • Pickett Co. 29 at Red Boiling Springs 23
  • Todd Co. Central (KY) 31 at RePublic 20
  • Moore Co. 30 at Richland 21
  • Millington Central 25 at Ripley 26
  • Warren Co. 12 at Riverdale 38
  • Hendersonville 29 at Rossview 17
  • South Pittsburg 48 at Sale Creek 0
  • Knoxville Halls 33 at Sevier Co. 18
  • Lenoir City 12 at Seymour 34
  • Stone Memorial 16 at Smith Co. 36
  • West Carroll 29 at South Fulton 24
  • Franklin Road Academy 20 at South Gibson 29
  • Central 24 at South-Doyle 23
  • Greenbrier 17 at Springfield 39
  • Bolton 11 at St. George’s 42
  • Houston Co. 24 at Stewart Co. 20
  • Columbia Central 18 at Stratford 32
  • Sullivan North 32 at Sullivan East 19
  • Sweetwater 35 at Tellico Plains 16
  • Cherokee 16 at Tennessee 41
  • Volunteer 25 at Unicoi Co. 34
  • Sullivan Central 25 at Union Co. 31
  • Sunbright 16 at Wartburg 37
  • Westview 35 at Waverly Central 29
  • Friendship Christian 48 at Webb Bell Buckle 1
  • Dyer Co. 41 at West Creek 15
  • White House-Heritage 24 at Westmoreland 21
  • Macon Co. 19 at White Co. 25
  • Montgomery Central 31 at White House 17
  • Germantown 10 at Whitehaven 40
  • Hunters Lane 26 at Whites Creek 19
  • Cleveland 32 at William Blount 21
  • Livingston Academy 41 at York Institute 5

164 games in all, if they’re all played. 88 of them are Region games. Here are the five best, from my perspective.

  • Gallatin (8-0, 3-0) at Beech (8-0, 3-0) (Thursday, 7:00 PM CT). This is the Game of the Week in Tennessee as far as I can tell. I talked about both of these teams last week, and nothing’s changed since: Gallatin beat Hendersonville 27-8 as an 18-point favorite, while Beech defeated Station Camp by 48 (54-point favorite). This not only decides the 5A-6 race, but it also decides the following: who gets home field advantage for the first two rounds, who would host a theoretical rematch in the quarterfinals, and who gets to avoid the 5A-5 winner until the quarterfinals if that happens. You love to see it.
  • McMinn Co. (8-0, 4-0) at Maryville (8-0, 4-0) (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). Disclosure: the ratings don’t expect this game to be close at all. Maryville is favored by 22, and it makes sense; they haven’t lost a Region game since 2000. However, they also aren’t often challenged in Region play by quality competition. This is the best McMinn team in a long time, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them threaten Maryville for 2-3 quarters. However, it’ll take a combination of turnovers + a better-than-expected game from McMinn’s offense to pull off a stunner.
  • Ensworth (6-2, 2-1) at Brentwood Academy (5-3, 1-2) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Tell me how weird this sentence sounds to you: Brentwood Academy has to win this game to make the playoffs. No, not win the Region; a BA program that’s won four straight state titles needs to win out to feel safe about making the playoffs. They’re favored by a tiny amount here over an excellent Ensworth squad that would wrap up a playoff bid with a win.
  • Central (8-0, 4-0) at South-Doyle (6-2, 4-1) (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). The 5A-2 battle for the title. Central’s played a weak schedule (not entirely their fault) and has mostly done what they should have; South-Doyle, meanwhile, has been a phenomenal squad all but five quarters of the year….and it resulted in a genuinely stunning loss to Seymour (and an expected one to Anderson County). This could be a muddy slopfest in the rain, and I don’t really know who that favors.
  • Anderson Co. (7-1, 4-0) at East Hamilton (6-2, 4-0) (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET). For the 4A-2 title! The winner avoids Elizabethton until the quarterfinals but gets Greeneville in the second round. I don’t know what’s less bad, honestly. Anderson County’s the better team, but East Hamilton has been better than expected this year and their two losses are by nine total points. The two games in this series to date have been won by Anderson 63-14 and 35-3; expect this one to be much closer.
  • Honorable Mentions: Clearwater Academy International (FL) at McCallie (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Knox Catholic at Brentwood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Pearl-Cohn at Independence (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cane Ridge at Ravenwood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Clay Co. at Monterey (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); MASE at Middle College (Thursday, 7:00 PM CT); Coalfield at Oliver Springs (Friday, 7:30 PM ET, BBB-TV); GPittman at Alcoa (Friday, 7:30 PM ET), Franklin Road Academy at South Gibson (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Watertown at Upperman (Thursday, 7:00 PM CT); Lake Co. at Greenfield (Thursday, 7:00 PM CT).

Here’s this week’s schedule in spreadsheet form if you need it:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

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