Key stats and notes for each Sweet Sixteen matchup

During the regular season, I provided what I called “stat sheets” to a few key people. These included broadcasters, SIDs, and anyone that was curious. Tennessee’s season is over, but college basketball isn’t, and it seems like a waste to not do these anymore. I don’t know if any broadcasters will end up seeing these, but if it helps even one fan view a game through a different lens, I’ve done well.

In order are this weekend’s eight Sweet Sixteen games, with stats and notes on all 16 teams involved. I’m going to be doing these for the Elite Eight, Final Four, and National Championship, and as fewer games are played, the sheets will grow larger.

NEXT PAGE: Saturday’s games

Ranking the Round of 32 games by watchability

Just like Thursday’s post, but for the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Rankings are based on a combination of quality offense + closeness of the matchup + interesting players + whatever other factors I cook up.

These are not meant to be taken too seriously.

Sunday

Five Basketballs

1. (8) Loyola Chicago vs. (1) Illinois (12:10 PM ET, CBS)
2. (11) Syracuse vs. (3) West Virginia (5:10 PM ET, CBS)
3. (9) Wisconsin vs. (1) Baylor (2:40 PM ET, CBS)

This is flawless scheduling by Turner; the three best games of the day are all on the network everyone has and will all be over by about 7:30 PM ET, meaning early Monday risers probably won’t have to fret about missing an instant classic. Loyola is the second-highest rated sub-2 seed in the field behind USC and will give Illinois all they want for 40 minutes. Syracuse’s Buddy Boeheim is the hottest shooter left in the Tournament and could single-handedly burn West Virginia down. Wisconsin/Baylor is a game that sounds unappetizing on paper but is quietly a matchup of #4 vs. #12 in KenPom. Again, worth remembering just how brutal a path Baylor has even with Ohio State out of the field.

Four Basketballs

4. (6) Texas Tech vs. (3) Arkansas (6:10 PM ET, TNT)
5. (10) Rutgers vs. (2) Houston (7:10 PM ET, TBS)

Both of these are pretty good games, but neither quite have the firepower to be must-watches. The first half of Texas Tech’s game on Friday was absolutely miserable to watch, and the 26-23 halftime score felt generous. Arkansas looked a lot better in the second half against Colgate, but they were similarly brutal for a solid 15-20 minutes. Worth noting that this is the single closest projected scoring margin (~0.2 points) of this round, though, so you’re pretty likely to get some sort of a good finish. Meanwhile, Rutgers is not a fun team to watch, but Rutgers has some good storylines that helped push them to this level. Houston may also be without a great player in Dejon Jarreau, so this could be closer than expected. I’m hoping not.

Three Basketballs

6. (15) Oral Roberts vs. (7) Florida (7:45 PM ET, TruTV)
7. (13) North Texas vs. (5) Villanova (8:45 PM ET, TNT)
8. (12) Oregon State vs. (4) Oklahoma State (9:40 PM ET, TBS)

Again, brilliant decision-making by Turner; the three least-interesting games of the day are all slammed together at the end when not many people will be watching. Oral Roberts/Florida is the best of the three for the obvious reason of everyone rooting for a 15 seed to make the Sweet Sixteen. North Texas/Villanova has a similar factor to it, but I don’t know that people can rally behind UNT the same way they did Oral Roberts. Critically, Oral Roberts simply plays a much more fun style of basketball. Lastly, I think only fans of both teams will be terribly invested in Oregon State/Oklahoma State. It’s a three-basketball affair because of Cade Cunningham alone; if it had been Virginia or Purdue in this game instead, I would have considered a one-basketball rating.

Monday

Five Basketballs

1. (8) LSU vs. (1) Michigan (7:10 PM ET, CBS)
2. (5) Colorado vs. (4) Florida State (7:45 PM ET, TBS)
3. (7) Oregon vs. (2) Iowa (12:10 PM ET, CBS)

Three bangers. LSU/Michigan is the most important game of Monday because LSU is finally appearing interested on defense at the most critical time of the season. If they’re willing to invest in that for a full 40 minutes, Michigan is in serious trouble. Colorado/Florida State is just your garden-variety excellent game between a pair of very good basketball teams. Oregon/Iowa features two top 15 offenses and, strangely, an Oregon team that will be playing its very first game of the Tournament. All three are must-watches.

Four Basketballs

4. (14) Abilene Christian vs. (11) UCLA (5:15 PM ET, TBS)
5. (13) Ohio vs. (5) Creighton (6:10 PM ET, TNT)
6. (6) USC vs. (3) Kansas (9:40 PM ET, CBS)
7. (10) Maryland vs. (2) Alabama (8:45 PM ET, TNT)
8. (8) Oklahoma vs. (1) Gonzaga (2:40 PM ET, CBS)

Monday just has much more interesting action than Sunday, which isn’t the fault of the Sunday participants at all. It’s just that pretty much all of these games worked out in really good fashion. Abilene/UCLA is fascinating; the Wildcats shot horrendously against Texas but won because they forced 22 turnovers and got a zillion offensive rebounds. Ohio/Creighton is another garden-variety fun fixture between two good offenses that features multiple unique storylines. USC is the highest-rated sub-2 seed in the entire field at #8 on KenPom and is quickly closing in on actual 2-seed Iowa to be the second-highest rated team in their region. Maryland/Alabama would have been a better game with UConn in it, but it’s still pretty good. Lastly, Oklahoma/Gonzaga being the worst game of the day tells you how good this day is. Oklahoma beat four Top 10 teams this year, and Gonzaga has the very best team in the sport, but someone had to be last.

Show Me My NCAA Tournament Opponent: Oregon State

Seven years ago today, Tennessee made some memories that will last a lifetime. The Vols drew the Iowa Hawkeyes in Dayton for the First Four, back when they actually played the NCAA Tournament at different sites in non-pandemic times. For the majority of the game, the Vols lagged behind by anywhere from 2-10 points; it was as if Iowa knew exactly when to stop Vol runs and force their way back out in front.

Down by five with about ten minutes left, Josh Richardson received a pass on the perimeter and drove to the basket. What he did next is etched in my memory forever:

Objectively, what this is is a two-point play to take the game from five to three points. Subjectively, both teams’ attitudes changed from that point forward. Tennessee took the lead and later went to overtime, where they won by 13 points; they used this to springboard a Sweet Sixteen run that came up just shy of the second-ever Elite Eight. I don’t remember any play from either of the two actual NCAA Tournament wins. What I remember is Josh Richardson driving the lane, determined to deliver Tennessee to the field of 64 even if he was the only guy doing it.

In a somewhat similar fashion, the 2020-21 Volunteers have a golden opportunity today to redeem some of the frustration caused by inconsistent play. They’re facing a very vulnerable 12 seed that plays a lot like they do. If Tennessee plays it correctly, they’re going to get the opportunity to deliver a lot of beautiful March moments. As a fan, I’m rooting for the chance to see it.

Game information:

  • THE OPPONENT: KenPom #84 Oregon State (17-12, Pac-12 champion).
  • THE TIME: 4:30 PM ET.
  • THE CHANNEL: TNT.
  • THE ANNOUNCERS: Spero Dedes (PBP), Brendan Haywood (analyst), and Lauren Shehadi (analyst).
  • THE SPREAD: Tennessee -8.5.

To click ahead to the section of your dreams, go here.

NEXT PAGE: Beaver beaver beaver

Ranking the Round of 64 (and First Four) games by watchability

Do you have a finite amount of time or control over the remote this weekend? If so, this might be the perfect list for you. Or perhaps it won’t be. I can’t predict how you feel!

Game watchability is assigned on a very arbitrary scale, but is essentially a mash-up of how close the game will be + how many points you should see. Close games are fun, but 51-49 games really aren’t. They’re sloppy.

Tiers are on a scale of 1 to 5 basketballs. There are no half-basketballs, and none of this is very serious.

First Four

Five Basketballs

  1. (11) UCLA vs. (11) Michigan State (9:57 PM ET, TBS)
  2. (11) Drake vs. (11) Wichita State (6:27 PM ET, TBS)

I’m being lenient here, but the NCAA Tournament is back for the first time in two years. Why wouldn’t you watch both of these games? As a bonus, UCLA/Michigan State single-handedly decides a pick in my bracket, so I’m really looking forward to that one. Drake/Wichita is also pretty intriguing, particularly now that it appears Drake will be closer to full strength than they’ve been in six weeks.

Three Basketballs

3. (16) Appalachian State vs. (16) Norfolk State (8:40 PM ET, TruTV)
4. (16) Texas Southern vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s (5:10 PM ET, TruTV)

I do feel bad for these teams. In a normal year, they would’ve gotten timeslots to themselves and a chance to tell the country who they are. Instead, they’re sort of the simultaneous undercard to games people would much rather watch. If you have to pick one of these to see a few minutes of, App/Norfolk is better. Norfolk is a very good deep-shooting team, while App’s defense has been fairly spicy lately. TXSO/MSM is useful because it’s the very first game of the Tournament and you can see how many offensive rebounds both teams get, as they both rank in the top 60 of OREB%.

Friday

Early Afternoon

Five Basketballs

  1. (3) Arkansas vs. (14) Colgate (12:45 PM ET, TruTV)

Colgate is a total mystery; a team that only played five teams this year but dominated almost every single game they participated in. Arkansas is a tad overrated, per the metrics, and could be in trouble against a Colgate team that averages more points per game than any team not named Gonzaga. If nothing else, I fully think both teams are scoring 80+.

Four Basketballs

2. (6) Texas Tech vs. (11) Utah State (1:45 PM ET, TNT)
3. (7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia Tech (12:15 PM ET, CBS)

Texas Tech/Utah State is the most boring 6/11 matchup on the board, which means it’s still a good game. Neither team ranks higher than 180th in eFG%, and both teams have top-25 defenses, meaning this could be a game with <120 combined points. Florida/VA Tech is the first game of the tournament and features a pair of teams that have either looked fantastic or awful offensively depending on which game you’ve watched.

Three Basketballs

4. (1) Illinois vs. (16) Drexel (1:15 PM ET, TBS)

Rare is the 1/16 game I actually think is worth watching, but I could include this one in said group. Drexel is easily the best 16 seed this year, and while I can’t really fathom them beating Illinois, it’s the only 1/16 that I could see being close at halftime. Drexel is an excellent shooting team that ranks top 50 in both 2PT% and 3PT% and plays very, very slowly, which is a really good recipe for keeping things close. Unfortunately, they also don’t force any turnovers and are a middling offensive rebounding squad. Still, the path is there to keep this within ten.

Late Afternoon

Five Basketballs

1. (8) Loyola Chicago vs. (9) Georgia Tech (4 PM ET, TBS)

This still stands even with Georgia Tech’s first or second-best player out in Moses Wright. Loyola is one of the three highest-rated 8 seeds in the last 20 years, and they play an entrancing style of basketball that essentially chokes opponents out slowly for 40 minutes. Alright, I didn’t sell it very well. Anyway, both teams here are very good, and you get to see the most unusual elite basketball player in the sport in Cameron Krutwig.

Three Basketballs

2. (5) Tennessee vs. (12) Oregon State (4:30 PM ET, TNT)
3. (2) Ohio State vs. (15) Oral Roberts (3 PM ET, CBS)

Tennessee/Oregon State is the most boring 5/12 game, which, again, still means it’s somewhat watchable. The Vols do have two likely first-round picks in Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer, while Oregon State’s backcourt of Ethan Thompson and Jarod Lucas is also good. That being said, I can almost guarantee there will be a three-minute stretch where neither team scores. Ohio State/Oral Roberts would be higher if ORU were better. Oral Roberts has the leading scorer in basketball in Max Abmas, but they’re atrocious defensively and seem very likely to give up 90+. Worth watching if you like 92-74 final scores.

Two Basketballs

4. (1) Baylor vs. (16) Hartford (3:30 PM ET, TruTV)

Least interesting game of the day.

Early Evening

Five Basketballs

1. (8) North Carolina vs. (9) Wisconsin (7:10 PM ET, CBS)
2. (4) Oklahoma State vs. (13) Liberty (6:25 PM ET, TBS)

That’s right! TWO five-ball games. UNC/Wisconsin features a hot UNC squad and a Wisconsin team that’s in the top 15 on most metrics sites. Will there be many points scored? Not likely. But it’s two very good teams that both could push Baylor hard in the next round. Oklahoma State/Liberty features Cade Cunningham, which is all you need to know.

Four Basketballs

3. (4) Purdue vs. (13) North Texas (7:25 PM ET, TNT)

Normally a low-and-slow game wouldn’t be that intriguing, but I do think this one is. Purdue/UNT feels unlikely to even crack 65 possessions and will more likely be in the 58-62 range, which is a great recipe for a 13-over-4 upset. And everyone likes upsets.

Two Basketballs

4. (2) Houston vs. (15) Cleveland State (7:15 PM ET, TruTV)

Houston is simply far, far better than a Cleveland State team that had a great season. Houston has the best eFG% defense in the nation, blocks 14.5% of twos, and is going to demolish the boards in this one. Houston ranks #2 nationally in OREB%; Cleveland State, #302 in DREB%. It’s a bad recipe.

Late Evening

Five Basketballs

1. (6) San Diego State vs. (11) Syracuse (9:40 PM ET, CBS)
2. (5) Villanova vs. (12) Winthrop (9:57 PM ET, TNT)

Everyone loves a plucky underdog! Those 11 and 12 seeds that come from small conferences to play with the big boys and are…somehow still coached by Jim Boeheim. Every year Syracuse gets in the field as a 9-11 seed, and every year, they pull an upset. I don’t expect this to go any differently. Meanwhile, Winthrop gets a Villanova team without Collin Gillespie, but Villanova still has a lot of firepower and can run with the Eagles if they so choose.

Three Basketballs

3. (7) Clemson vs. (10) Rutgers (9:20 PM ET, TBS)
4. (3) West Virginia vs. (14) Morehead State (9:50 PM ET, TruTV)

Clemson/Rutgers is an awful offensive matchup, but it should be fairly close and it’s quite nice to see Rutgers finally make the NCAA Tournament without it being cancelled. Meanwhile, both Morehead and West Virginia play moderately exciting styles of basketball, which seems pretty likely to result in West Virginia winning by 15 points.

Saturday

Early Afternoon

Five Basketballs

1. (8) LSU vs. (9) St. Bonaventure (1:45 PM ET, TNT)

Could have a ton of points scored in this one, and it’s a coin-flip game. Either team could win, likely by a score of 79-78. Both teams were underseeded, and it seems like either will have at least some amount of a shot to beat Michigan in the next round. Very much worth watching.

Four Basketballs

2. (5) Colorado vs. (12) Georgetown (12:15 PM ET, CBS)

Everyone’s favorite upset pick this year, which actually makes more sense if you remember how much of an advantage Colorado loses when it plays away from home. Colorado’s home court advantage, per KenPom, is the best in all of college basketball. They went 11-1 at home this year. When they’re on the road or at a neutral site, though, this evaporates. They went 11-7 away from home this year, still good but not nearly as dominant. Georgetown’s going to have a very good shot.

Three Basketballs

3. (3) Kansas vs. (14) Eastern Washington (1:15 PM ET, TBS)

Eastern Washington plays a fun brand of basketball and has a uniquely talented center in Tanner Groves. The issue here is more with Kansas, who looks lost offensively from time to time and had their worst offense in Bill Self’s entire tenure this year. A Kansas win doesn’t feel exciting.

Two Basketballs

4. (4) Florida State vs. (13) UNC Greensboro (12:45 PM ET, TruTV)

Isaiah Miller alone should’ve pushed this to three basketballs, but the gap between FSU (the best 4 seed in the field) and UNCG (the worst 13) is simply too large to make this a higher-rated game. A UNCG upset would probably be more surprising than a 15 seed winning, to be honest.

Late Afternoon

Five Basketballs

1. (6) USC vs. (11) Drake (4:30 PM ET, TNT)
2. (5) Creighton vs. (12) UC Santa Barbara (3:30 PM ET, TruTV)

Drake’s got to beat Wichita to get here first, but if they do, it’s an utterly fascinating matchup with the best USC squad since O.J. Mayo was in town. Drake simply is a more interesting athletic match with the Trojans, who are pretty likely to beat either opponent but would face a greater point-for-point battle with Drake. Meanwhile, UCSB is the most enjoyable 12-seed this year and does an excellent job of doing all the little things that lead to upsets.

Two Basketballs

3. (2) Alabama vs. (15) Iona (4 PM ET, TBS)

Yes, a lot of points are going to be scored in this game. Iona doesn’t play as fast as they used to, though, and they commit a ton of turnovers. The Rick Pitino storyline is obviously hilarious, but if you don’t like watching top 10 teams beat overwhelmed opponents by 20 points in December, why would you now?

One Basketball

4. (1) Michigan vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s or Texas Southern (3 PM ET, CBS)

The two worst 16 seeds in the field versus a 1 seed missing its best shooter. Pass.

Early Evening

Five Basketballs

1. (4) Virginia vs. (13) Ohio (7:15 PM ET, TruTV)
2. (7) Connecticut vs. (10) Maryland (7:10 PM ET, CBS)

How could you not be utterly fascinated by the Virginia Quarantine storyline? No one knows which UVA players will be available for Saturday’s game yet, and that’s before you get into Ohio being a fairly strong 13 seed who plays the right brand of basketball to pull an upset. Meanwhile, there’s also a UConn team that’s in the top 15-20 of every metric but somehow got a 7 seed.

Four Basketballs

3. (2) Iowa vs. (15) Grand Canyon (6:25 PM ET, TBS)
4. (8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Missouri (7:25 PM ET, TNT)

Grand Canyon doesn’t exactly have a wonderful offense (it’s the 10th-worst in the field), but the question for the entire season has been this: can Iowa’s defense figure it out in time to help their offense out? The Hawkeye defense has climbed all the way to 50th after being at 130th on February 7th. That’s terrific; I’m also quite skeptical. Since the Ohio State loss on February 4, opponents have shot just 32.4% from downtown despite getting off an astounding 24.1 three-point attempts per game. Iowa doesn’t guard these particularly fiercely; a Grand Canyon team that makes 55.4% of their twos and will be taking 40% or more of their shots from deep could reasonably exploit this. Still a likely 10-14 point win for Iowa.

Oklahoma/Missouri was more intriguing before a key Oklahoma player was ruled out, but it’s still worth keeping track of.

Late Evening

Five Basketballs

1. (6) BYU vs. (11) UCLA (9:40 PM ET, CBS)
2. (3) Texas vs. (14) Abilene Christian (9:50 PM ET, TruTV)

UCLA over BYU is the most likely 11-over-6 upset…but it requires UCLA to actually win in the First Four, which won’t be easy. That’s why I haven’t completed my bracket yet, as a Sweet Sixteen spot quite literally depends on that outcome. Texas/Abilene Christian is the most must-watch 3/14 game since West Virginia/Stephen F. Austin, simply because no 3/14 game has had this level of a turnover delta since. Texas averages a -2.3 turnover margin per 100 possessions; Abilene Christian is the second-best in all of basketball at +7.3. Averaged out to a 70-possession game, that’s almost seven extra possessions for Abilene. Can Texas make up for that? I’m excited to find out.

Three Basketballs

3. (7) Oregon vs. (10) VCU (9:57 PM ET, TNT)

I’m not sure I have a single thought either way on this game. It’s like the exact picture I have in my head of “replacement-level Round of 64 game.”

One Basketball

4. (1) Gonzaga vs. (16) Norfolk State or Appalachian State (9:20 PM ET, TBS)

I have Gonzaga as roughly a 28-29 point favorite in this game, regardless of who they play.

The best (and worst) value picks for the 2021 NCAA Tournament

No fancy intro here – just big, dumb stats stuff.

The values below are based off of the traditional bracket scoring of 1 point per Round of 64 win, 2 per Round of 32, 4 per Sweet Sixteen, 8 per Elite Eight, 16 per Final Four, and 32 for getting the champion right.

Round of 64

As a reminder, picks in this round are just one team against another; if one team is a great value pick, their opponent is a bad one. Pretty simple.

Best Values

(9) St. Bonaventure over (8) LSU (50.1% to advance/31.9% ESPN picks/+.182 expected points added). Only 31.9% of the public have picked the Bonnies, but St. Bonaventure is the KenPom favorite and, in my combined metrics, a 50.1% likely winner. Is this a safe pick? No, but it could be a huge first-round swing pick.

(11) Utah State over (6) Texas Tech (39.7% to advance/22% ESPN/+.177 EPA).

(13) North Texas over (4) Purdue (28.6% to advance/11% ESPN/+.176 EPA).

(10) Rutgers over (7) Clemson (53.6% to advance/39.3% ESPN/.143 EPA). I assume that this is some sort of weird college football residual affection for Clemson?

Worthy Moon Shots

(14) Eastern Washington over (3) Kansas (23.5% to advance/7.1% ESPN/+.164 EPA). No team in this bracket has less value than Kansas, to be honest, though I see this being more of an issue in the Round of 32 than here.

(14) Abilene Christian over (3) Texas (23.2% to advance/7.3% ESPN/+.159 EPA).

(13) Liberty over (4) Oklahoma State (26.1% to advance/14% ESPN/+.121 EPA).

(14) Colgate over (3) Arkansas (25.3% to advance/13.9% ESPN/+.114 EPA).

Round of 32

Best Values

(6) USC over either (3) Kansas or (14) Eastern Washington (44.6% to advance/24.9% ESPN/+.394 EPA). USC is well-rated in the metrics, would be a neutral-court favorite over both teams, and both were true before Kansas announced a starter would be out for at least the first weekend. As mentioned above, Kansas may be the single-worst value pick in this Tournament.

(6) BYU to the Sweet Sixteen (34.8% to advance/18.9% ESPN/+.318 EPA). I really do not like this pick, for the record. BYU is going to be very vulnerable in the first round. This is more of an anti-Texas pick, which will be explained later.

(8) Loyola Chicago over (1) Illinois (21.3% to advance/6.5% ESPN/+.296 EPA). Explained yesterday.

Teams to Avoid

(3) Kansas (36.8% to advance/68.2% ESPN/-.628 EPA). If you add Jalen Wilson back to these projections, Kansas is still the lowest-value pick of the first two rounds. They haven’t gotten above 19th in KenPom since Tennessee blew them out in late January, and the last time they actually played like a 3 seed (AKA, being ranked 9th-12th in KenPom) was January 9.

(3) Texas (41.9% to advance/70% ESPN/-.562 EPA). Texas has a really tough Round of 64 matchup and would either face BYU or a very good 11 seed in the next round. The Big 12 wasn’t quite as good this year as it has been the last several, and I think in general, the league’s being overvalued this March.

(4) Oklahoma State (38.2% to advance/59.4% ESPN/-.424 EPA). I promise this wasn’t all that intentional, but again, another Big 12 team to avoid. Oklahoma State never got higher than 30th in KenPom, which is the range for 8 seeds traditionally.

Sweet Sixteen

Best Values

This round isn’t quite as ripe as the others, to be honest. This is more of a round to avoid certain teams than to go all-in on some.

(6) USC (18.6% to advance/7.6% ESPN/+.44 EPA). Not a great value, to be honest, but it’s #1.

(8) Loyola Chicago (13% to advance/3% ESPN/+.389 EPA). 

(7) Connecticut (15.8% to advance/6.2% ESPN/+.384 EPA). I actually like this one, for what it’s worth.

(6) BYU (15.6% to advance/6.4% ESPN/+.367 EPA).

Teams to Avoid

(1) Baylor (50% to advance/70.1% ESPN/-.806 EPA). Baylor has to go through a really good 8/9 seed combo and either Purdue or Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen. Let me put it in perspective: Gonzaga actually does have 70% odds to advance. Baylor does not.

(1) Michigan (44% to advance/63.7% ESPN/-.79 EPA). This hurts, but no Livers is a real killer. If you haven’t watched them, Livers would pretty easily be the best player on Tennessee, for example.

(1) Illinois (51.1% to advance/69.1% ESPN/-.719 EPA). 

(3) Kansas (12.7% to advance/28.3% ESPN/-.626 EPA).

This team is actually lower than some others, but they required a shoutout: (2) Ohio State (43.7% to advance/57.6% ESPN/-.554 EPA). 

As well as this one: (2) Alabama (35.5% to advance/47.1% ESPN/-.462 EPA).

Elite Eight

Best Values

(2) Houston (31.3% to advance/15.3% ESPN/+1.28 EPA). This is our first >1 point value add of the Tournament and one of just four the entire way through. Two of the other three? Also Houston. I cannot believe the Cougars can be had at this “price,” if you will; they were in KenPom’s top 7 for basically the entire season and never wavered. There isn’t a realistic reason for Illinois to be receiving 53.9% of Final Four picks from this region when Houston would only be a one-point underdog on a neutral court.

(2) Iowa (20.9% to advance/14% ESPN/+.552 EPA). Iowa is up here simply because everyone is taking Gonzaga to the Final Four and further. Gonzaga has received an astounding 67.2% of ESPN user picks in this region, a full 13% higher than any other team in the field. I’m taking Gonzaga there myself, but there is real value in giving Iowa a shot if you’re in a bracket group of, say, 50+ people.

Teams to Avoid

(1) Illinois (31.7% to advance/53.9% ESPN/-1.773 EPA). Because Illinois has gotten hot at the right time, they’ve received the second-highest percentage of Final Four picks in the field. This is a lot for a team that has a negative turnover margin, ranks 235th in FT%, and has been the serious beneficiary of an opponent cold streak from three over their seven-game win streak (expected 3PT% 35.7%; actual, 29.7%). Illinois is a wonderful team, but they aren’t a lock to even get to the Sweet Sixteen given that they may be playing the ninth-ranked team in KenPom in the Round of 32.

(1) Baylor (33.6% to advance/50.1% ESPN/-1.32 EPA). Baylor’s struggles as of recent are probably overblown, but they kind of quietly received a real bummer of a draw. In the Round of 32, the Bears either have to face KenPom’s #10 team (Wisconsin) or the #28 team (North Carolina) that’s risen 14 spots in the last three weeks. The Sweet Sixteen opponent is likely either Purdue (#13 KenPom) or Villanova (#12). Lastly, they’d likely have to get past #7 Ohio State to make the Final Four. That’s as many as three Top 12 opponents in four games, which is a huge ask for pretty much any team. It’s like having to beat a 3 seed three straight times despite playing an 8, a 5, and a 2.

(1) Michigan (28.3% to advance/42% ESPN/-1.093 EPA). This is entirely based on the Livers injury. If he were available, Michigan would actually be the best value pick of any 1 seed.

(3) Texas (7.8% to advance/15.1% ESPN/-.583 EPA). Lowest value pick of any non-1 seed.

Final Four

Best Values

(2) Houston (19% to advance/7% ESPN/+1.919 EPA). The second-highest value by any team in any round.

(2) Iowa (13.1% to advance/7.6% ESPN+.879 EPA).

Teams to Avoid

(1) Illinois (19.8% to advance/30.6% ESPN/-1.722 EPA). 

(1) Baylor (19.4% to advance/29.6% ESPN/-1.629 EPA).

Champions

Best Values

(2) Houston (9.5% to win/2.5% ESPN/+2.229 EPA).

(2) Iowa (7.9% to win/3.4% ESPN/+1.426 EPA).

Way down the board, but still worthy of consideration in, say, 150+ person bracket groups: (2) Ohio State (4.7% to win/3.4% ESPN/+0.41 EPA).

Teams to Avoid

(1) Illinois (10.2% to win/14.9% ESPN/-1.516 EPA). Perhaps call this the anti-hot hand.

(1) Gonzaga (32.6% to win/37% ESPN/-1.415 EPA). Gonzaga has the best chance to win the NCAA Tournament of any team since 2000-01 Duke, and truth be told, they are a perfectly fine pick. If you’re in a 100-person bracket group, on average, 37 people will pick Gonzaga. If you’re one of those 37, you have to nail the earlier rounds to scratch out an advantage. That’s why Gonzaga is both the smartest pick in the field and one of the worst.

Thanks for tagging along! One final ranking is below.

Teams with the most total added points value in the field:

  1. Houston +5.514 expected points added
  2. Iowa +2.588
  3. Loyola Chicago +1.702
  4. USC +1.5
  5. Wisconsin +1.482

Teams with the lowest added points values:

  1. Illinois -6.136
  2. Baylor -4.741
  3. Gonzaga -3.339
  4. Michigan -3.112
  5. Kansas -2.656

How stats and history would pick the 2021 NCAA Tournament

BIG LARGE UPDATE: I made a Google Doc showing how this method has performed over the last five NCAA Tournaments. It would have correctly selected three of five champions and 14 of 20 Final Four teams. You can check it out here

Last year, to avoid the depression of knowing the NCAA Tournament was cancelled, I posted a super-long statistical breakdown of how the stats I’ve collected over the years would’ve picked every game of the NCAA Tournament. It was really fun to put together, and I made myself a promise that when the 2021 Tournament came around, I’d do it again for the real thing.

Well, here we are. After the longest year in human history, the 2021 Tournament is right around the corner. Matchups were revealed yesterday evening, and I’ve spent the night and morning putting together what I think is 99% likely to be my own bracket. Does this mean you should copy it exactly? Of course not. What’s the fun in that?

What this is is simply a game-by-game projection of the field of 68 based on a document I’ve put together since 2018. Bart Torvik has an amazing page on his site with detailed historical KenPom projections of each game over the last 20 years of postseason play. Using that, I’ve accumulated enough data to make informed, quality guesses on how the NCAA Tournament may go.

The only NCAA Tournament I’ve had the chance to apply this to was 2019’s. It correctly identified three of the Final Four teams, missing only on Gonzaga, and said Virginia would be the national champion. It also correctly picked three Round of 64 upsets and went 26-6 in the first round. I’m hoping to beat both numbers this year, and we’ll simply have to see how it plays out.

First disclaimer: I feel confident that at least 90%, if not more, of the picks on the following pages will be the same ones I make in an actual ESPN bracket selection. That said, I reserve the right to change selections up to Friday morning, and if they’re meaningful, I’ll send out the article again with alterations.

Final disclaimer: this method is going to end up missing on several games and picks throughout March and early April. This is simply how it works, because it is impossible to have a perfect bracket.

To click ahead to a preferred section, use the below menu:

NEXT PAGE: Round of 64 picks

Show Me My SEC Tournament Opponent, 2020-21: Alabama

Well it’s these guys again. I think you may have heard about them over the past two months, perhaps?

It’s worth breaking down just how much has changed since the first and only time Tennessee faced this Alabama team. Heading into January 2, Tennessee sat as the #6 team in KenPom, undefeated and coming off of an absolute destruction of what we thought would be the second-best team in the SEC, Missouri. Alabama was #45, had lost at home to Western Kentucky two weeks prior, and came very close to dropping a mid-December home game to Furman. The Tide had potential, but they didn’t seem to be quite in the same stratosphere as Tennessee at the time.

On March 13, 2021, it’s like everything has flipped. Alabama obviously won that first game, then simply went on to smoke the rest of the SEC (minus Missouri, strangely, and Arkansas) and finished 16-2 in conference play. They’re now #8 on KenPom. Tennessee began to wobble with the Alabama game, fully fell off the table at times, and squeaked out a 10-7 SEC record in one of the most frustrating seasons in program history.

We thought we know a lot in January. We didn’t. The question remaining is this: how much have both teams learned about themselves and each other since then?

Game information:

  • THE OPPONENT: 1 seed Alabama (22-6, 16-2). They defeated 9 seed Mississippi State 85-48 yesterday.
  • THE TIME: 1 PM ET.
  • THE CHANNEL: ESPN.
  • THE ANNOUNCERS: Karl Ravech (PBP) and, yes, Dick Vitale (color).
  • THE SPREAD: Alabama -3.5.

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NEXT PAGE: When I have more time, please remind me to write something about how smaller conferences in college basketball mostly do a terrible job of protecting their best teams in the conference tournament. Been on my mind this week!

Show Me My SEC Tournament Opponent, 2020-21: Florida

Hey, look who it is! Didn’t Tennessee just get done playing this team five days ago? Why, yes, they did. What you’ll see below is just about exactly the last preview, though with some small alterations and an attempt to show just how badly Florida was harmed down the stretch by having Tre Mann (their leading scorer in SEC play) unavailable for the game due to a migraine. Florida beat Vanderbilt 69-63 yesterday, if you didn’t see it, with Mann going for 22 points. He is important. So is this game for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament seeding hopes.

Game information:

  • THE OPPONENT: 5-seed Florida (14-8, 9-7).
  • THE TIME: 30 minutes after Alabama/Mississippi State; most likely around 2:30 PM ET.
  • THE CHANNEL: ESPN.
  • THE ANNOUNCERS: Karl Ravech (PBP) and Jimmy Dykes (color).
  • THE SPREAD: Tennessee -4.5????

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NEXT PAGE: Did you know Tennessee hasn’t beaten Florida in the SEC Tournament since 1984? They’ve also only played Florida thrice in the SECT since then, but, yeah

How high or low can Tennessee be seeded in the NCAA Tournament?

Somehow, after 17 years of COVID-19 (citation needed), the SEC Tournament will be taking place later this week. Regardless of how everything shakes out, it will simply be great to watch a conference tournament be played again. The sensation of watching a school pull an upset (as long as it’s not against your school) is just about unbeatable.

Tennessee will open their SEC Tournament experience on Friday against one of Florida, Texas A&M, or Vanderbilt. Both KenPom and Bart Torvik agree that it’s around 80% likely to be Florida, but that does leave open the 20% chance that it’s someone else. As such, that leaves open a lot of potential scenarios for Tennessee to work their way through this upcoming weekend. All of these scenarios have serious NCAA Tournament implications, and using Bart Torvik’s amazing TeamCast tool, I’ve tried to work my way through all of the mostly-useful scenarios I could think of.

We’ll go through each scenario one-by-one. I have elected to restrain myself from covering a couple, such as playing a 12/13 seed in the quarterfinals then an 8/9 in the semifinals simply because the odds are so low. (Roughly 2%.) As of this morning, Tennessee ranks out as the top 6 seed (21st overall) on Bracket Matrix while ranking as the second 5 seed (18th overall) on Torvik. It’s only a three-slot difference, and if you feel like adjusting downward using the Matrix average, feel free to. (I’ll include it in parentheses alongside the Torvik projection, simply as a rough approximation of what it would look like by consensus ranking.)

In the meantime, I’m trying to perfect this video step-by-step:

  1. 0-1, quarterfinals loss to either Texas A&M or Vanderbilt

Average outcome, per Bart Torvik’s TeamCast: 6 seed, 24th on seed list (7 seed, 27th on Matrix)

This would obviously be a disaster. Losing to either of these teams is really embarrassing and opens the door for Tennessee to have a really bad seeding outcome. I’ve no interest in falling out of what I’d call the Upset Range (being a 6 seed or better), and finding a way to lose to either the 95th or 129th-ranked team by KenPom would be awful. It’s like losing a home game in non-conference play to Tulsa or someone. Let’s avoid talking about it.

2. 0-1, quarterfinals loss to Florida

Average outcome: 6 seed, 21st on seed list (6 seed, 24th on Matrix)

Also not ideal, though this is much more realistic. Despite playing Florida twice already, Tennessee still hasn’t played a full-strength Florida team, and for 56 of the 80 minutes they’ve played the Gators, they’ve gotten rocked. However, the final 24 minutes of Sunday’s game were the most promising minutes Tennessee’s showed in a game since they defeated Kansas. You’d hope they can build off of that and simply avoid disaster.

3. 1-1, win over Florida, loss to Alabama in semifinals

Average outcome: 5 seed, 17th on seed list (5 seed, 20th on Matrix)

I admit I’m surprised that this would actually boost Tennessee, considering they’re likely to be seeded higher than Florida anyway. That said, gaining a win over a team that will be around a 7-9 seed is never a bad thing, particularly if it’s not a home game. Losing a second time to Alabama would be disappointing, but they are the best team in the SEC, so it’s not like it would be stunning. If Tennessee only gets one win this weekend, this is the best scenario you can dream up. The average outcome is probably a 4 or 5 seed, and it would be hard to see Tennessee falling past a 6 seed.

4. 1-1, win over Texas A&M or Vanderbilt, loss to Alabama in semifinals

Average outcome: 5 seed, 18th on seed list (6 seed, 21st on Matrix)

While it would be nice to avoid Florida, it might not be the best move for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament seeding. Per Torvik’s simulator, losing to Florida is almost the same as beating a bad Vandy team then losing to Alabama. The win over Vanderbilt does nothing to boost Tennessee’s resume; it’s like having not played a game at all. I’d somewhat rather play Vanderbilt because I greatly enjoy watching Florida lose basketball games, but it might be a bad thing for Tennessee if that happened.

5. 1-1, win over Florida, loss to Kentucky or Mississippi State in semifinals

Average outcome: 5 seed, 18th on seed list (6 seed, 21st on Matrix)

I think this would be the absolute dumbest and most infuriating outcome on the board by a mile. Imagine finally getting to beat full-strength Florida right after watching the SEC’s best team lose to a Kentucky or Mississippi State team that isn’t making the NCAA Tournament. Then, the next day, you lose to that exact team. I think I’d have to log off for a week. And yet: it doesn’t actually appear to be that disastrous? Kentucky and Miss State both would be Q2 losses, which is better than Q3 or Q4. (It would make Tennessee’s Q2 record an incredibly embarrassing 2-3, though.) This exact scenario screams 6 seed to me; it yells “you will be playing VCU on Friday afternoon.”

6. 2-1, wins over Florida and Alabama, loss to Arkansas…

Average outcome: 3 seed, 11th on seed list (4 seed, 14th on Matrix)

Oh my. If you’ve got to lose a game this weekend, this is the path. I have to be honest and say it’s really hard for me to imagine Tennessee getting a 3 seed without winning the SEC Tournament, but this clearly opens the path to a 4 seed and probably no worse than a 5. With this, you’d add a pair of Quad 1 wins, beat a near-certain 2 seed, and your loss would be to the hottest team in the SEC who’s on track for a 2 or 3 seed. It’s not that bad of an outcome…but this would be Tennessee’s third straight loss in the SEC Tournament championship. It would hurt, badly.

…or LSU…

Average outcome: 3 seed, 11th on seed list (4 seed, 14th on Matrix)

LSU seems destined for an 8 or 9 seed, but as we saw a few weeks back, they can get hot at any time and it’s very, very hard to slow their offense down. (Alabama is the only school to consistently do this all season.) I’d still have a hard time seeing Tennessee come out of this scenario at something worse than a 5 seed.

…or a lower seed 

Average outcome: 4 seed, 14th on seed list (5 seed, 17th on Matrix)

I chose both Ole Miss and Missouri for this example; they’re the 6 and 7 seeds, and the 10 and 11 seeds (Georgia and South Carolina) have a combined 2.5% chance of making the title game. This is the most annoying possible outcome out of the “make it to the SEC Championship Game” scenarios, obviously. A loss to either Ole Miss or Missouri probably opens the door back to potentially being a 6 seed, and it definitely eliminates the chance of Tennessee getting any higher than a 4. There’s only a 28.5% chance of one of these teams being in the title game, so it’s unlikely, but if it happens, Tennessee simply has to win.

7. Win the whole freaking thing

Average outcome: 3 seed, 9th on seed list (3 seed, 12th on Matrix)

For this, I used the average among all potential opponents, weighted towards each opponent’s likelihood of making the title game. Using all of these, Tennessee came closest to being the highest 3 seed, and in some scenarios (particularly any scenario involving beating both Florida and Alabama), Tennessee was the lowest 2 seed on Torvik’s TeamCast. This would be amazing for several reasons – being the 4 seed and making it this far; the first SEC Tournament championship since 1979; the reclamation of the last two months of frustrating basketball. Which is why I simply can’t allow myself to believe this is a possibility.

So, yes, Tennessee still could end up as a 3 seed. Or, alternately, a 7 seed is on the table. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, and we’ll simply have to wait and find out what it is.

Show Me My Opponent, 2020-21: Florida (#2)

It’s Sunday, it’s early, and this is the final game of the SEC’s regular season. I’m tired. Super sim to the start of this game, please.

In all seriousness, you don’t really need millions of words about this game. With a win, Tennessee can somewhat salvage this turd of an SEC season by getting the final double-bye in next week’s conference tournament. With a loss, I think I’m moving out to a farm and not thinking about the Internet for a while.

Game information:

  • THE OPPONENT: Florida (13-7, 9-6).
  • THE TIME: 12 PM ET. For some reason.
  • THE CHANNEL: ESPNU. First ESPNU appearance this season!
  • THE ANNOUNCERS: Tom Hart (PBP) and Jimmy Dykes (color).
  • THE SPREAD: Tennessee -4.5.

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NEXT PAGE: Please win