Via Gannett.

Tennessee high school football projections, week 8

Hello! I’m on my honeymoon right now, so analysis is obviously limited. Last week, the projections went 136-24 (85%), bringing them to 946-236 (80%) on the season. Very good!

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

I’ll add in more analysis next week. Favorites are expected to go about 87.8-21.2 (80.5%), and games should be better this week than normal. 55 Region games!

Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 7:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 103-72 (58.9%); 10-8 last week
  • 60-69%: 128-67 (65.6%); 14-5 last week
  • 70-79%: 140-60 (70%); 22-8 last week
  • 80-89%: 183-20 (90.1%); 22-2 last week
  • 90-99%: 391-16 (96.1%); 68-1 last week

Here’s this week’s games:

Thursday

  • Ravenwood 34 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 21
  • Austin-East 19 at GPittman 31
  • Clarksville 28 at Kenwood 16
  • Melrose 54 at King Prep 0
  • Rossview 13 at Lipscomb Academy 28
  • Trezevant 13 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 23
  • Oakhaven 8 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 29
  • Westwood 15 at Memphis East 31
  • Bluff City 0 at Middle College 41
  • Glencliff 0 at Nolensville 62
  • Northwest 25 at Northeast 28
  • Pigeon Forge 16 at Northview 26
  • Centennial 17 at Page 38
  • Mount Juliet 37 at Spring Hill 6
  • Memphis Business Academy 15 at Washington 31
  • Sheffield 0 at Wooddale 53

Friday

  • Arlington 25 at Bartlett 28
  • Franklin Road Academy 22 at Battle Ground Academy 26
  • Jefferson Co. 19 at Bearden 25
  • Monterey 20 at Bledsoe Co. 24
  • Lookout Valley 0 at Boyd-Buchanan 52
  • Moore Co. 31 at Byrns [Jo] 10
  • Cascade 21 at Cannon Co. 28
  • Grace Christian 24 at Chattanooga Christian 27
  • Greenbrier 28 at Cheatham Co. Central 21
  • David Crockett 37 at Cherokee 19
  • Grainger 24 at Chuckey-Doak 30
  • Fulton 25 at Clinton 27
  • Hampton 35 at Cloudland 12
  • Greenback 30 at Coalfield 18
  • Houston 31 at Collierville 16
  • Trinity Christian Academy 20 at Columbia Academy 25
  • McMinn Central 22 at Copper Basin 29
  • Claiborne 29 at Cosby 20
  • Bolton 20 at Craigmont 29
  • Rockwood 31 at Cumberland Co. 9
  • Lee (VA) 18 at Cumberland Gap 25
  • Volunteer 20 at Daniel Boone 43
  • University School of Jackson 31 at Davidson Academy 27
  • Smith Co. 28 at DeKalb Co. 22
  • Farragut 15 at Dobyns-Bennett 35
  • Hamilton 8 at Douglass [Frederick] 41
  • McKenzie 36 at Dresden 18
  • Hixson 2 at East Hamilton 42
  • Chattanooga Central 13 at East Ridge 35
  • Bishop Sycamore (OH) 3 at Ensworth 40
  • Nashville Christian 29 at Fayette Academy 22
  • Northpoint Christian 14 at First Assembly Christian 27
  • Humboldt 32 at Gleason 31
  • Silverdale Academy 31 at Grace Baptist Academy 12
  • Sullivan South 14 at Greeneville 44
  • Johnson Co. 14 at Happy Valley 27
  • Fairview 40 at Harpeth 8
  • East Hickman Co. 18 at Hickman Co. 27
  • Antioch 19 at Hillwood 37
  • Perry Co. 14 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 33
  • West Carroll 10 at Houston Co. 32
  • Wayne Co. 1 at Huntingdon 59
  • Pickett Co. 11 at Jackson Co. 36
  • Wartburg 40 at Jellico 15
  • Oneida 30 at King’s Academy 17
  • Scott 16 at Kingston 23
  • Raleigh-Egypt 5 at Kirby 45
  • West Greene 0 at Knox Catholic 53
  • White Co. 8 at Livingston Academy 40
  • Mount Pleasant 29 at Loretto 23
  • Coffee Co. Central 15 at Maplewood 31
  • Walker Valley 33 at Marion Co. 17
  • Giles Co. 17 at Marshall Co. 39
  • Bradley Central 15 at Maryville 34
  • Collinwood 16 at McEwen 33
  • Germantown 22 at Memphis Central 24
  • Fayette Ware 26 at Memphis Overton 18
  • Memphis Nighthawks 32 at Middleton 27
  • Harriman 13 at Midway 33
  • Brentwood Academy 20 at Montgomery Bell Academy 18
  • Springfield 23 at Montgomery Central 28
  • Sevier Co. 30 at Morristown East 22
  • Webb Bell Buckle 14 at Mount Juliet Christian Academy 31
  • Sale Creek 23 at North Georgia (GA) 27
  • McMinn Co. 40 at Notre Dame 13
  • Peabody 43 at Obion Co. 5
  • Sweetwater 39 at Polk Co. 9
  • Trousdale Co. 30 at Portland 12
  • Rhea Co. 24 at Red Bank 26
  • Clinton Co. (KY) 41 at Red Boiling Springs 9
  • Morristown West 11 at Science Hill 40
  • Howard Tech 47 at Sequoyah 3
  • Cleveland 21 at Shelbyville Central 33
  • Soddy Daisy 26 at Signal Mountain 17
  • Lake Co. 50 at South Fulton 10
  • North Greene 0 at South Greene 58
  • Meigs Co. 23 at South Pittsburg 25
  • Sullivan Central 30 at Sullivan East 27
  • Franklin Co. 8 at Summit 38
  • Oliver Springs 41 at Sunbright 4
  • Stratford 33 at Sycamore 12
  • Cocke Co. 12 at Tennessee 48
  • Hancock Co. 10 at Thomas Walker (VA) 37
  • Clarksville Academy 16 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 32
  • Baylor 38 at Tyner Academy 8
  • Dyersburg 34 at Union City 20
  • Elizabethton 50 at Union Co. 6
  • Henry Co. 46 at West Creek 9
  • Bolivar Central 16 at Westview 39
  • White House 20 at White House-Heritage 30
  • Whitehaven 31 at White Station 20
  • Grundy Co. 25 at Whitwell 26
  • LaVergne 19 at Wilson Central 28

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link. (It’s Week 8. That’s the sheet.)

Best of luck to all teams this week!

Via the Times Free Press.

Tennessee high school football projections, week 7

Week seven has arrived! Last week was a remarkable one, as the projections went 139-23 (85.8%), well above their 129-33 expectation. This brings the season-long projection record to 810-210 (79.4%), just six wins short of an 80% hit rate. Out of a 1,020-game sample size, this is a pretty good rate to see, and it makes me feel confident that it’ll correctly project somewhere in the neighborhood of 77-83% of the playoff game winners.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Yet again, last week had a healthy amount of one-point games – ten, with Haywood/South Gibson’s wild 50-49 barnburner leading the pack. This time, though, there were a lot more single-digit games (42), fewer gigantic 40+ point blowouts (25), and the lowest projection error to date (12.19 points off the final score, on average). The average game was decided by 22.9 points, which sounds terrible until I tell you that it was the second-closest week of the year so far behind Week 1.

This week has 42 games projected within single-digits, which sounds great…but it also projects 22 40+ point blowouts and 72 games decided by 20 points or more. However: if it hits the expected average scoring margin this week of 21.5, it’ll be the best week of the year. Funny how Region play almost always ends up creating the best weeks.

Favorites are expected to go about 132.4-28.6 (82.3%), which should mean a slightly less predictable week. Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 6:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 93-64 (59.2%); 17-9 last week
  • 60-69%: 114-62 (64.8%); 13-5 last week
  • 70-79%: 118-52 (69.4%); 22-4 last week
  • 80-89%: 161-18 (89.9%); 33-2 last week
  • 90-99%: 323-15 (95.6%); 54-3 last week

After weeks of promise, the 70-79% group is starting to course-correct; since Week 4, those teams have won 74.1% of their games. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the coin-flip tier (50-59%) and the almost-a-certainty tier (80-89%) regress some. Both 60-69% and 90-99% are almost perfectly in line with expectations.

Now, for this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

  • Bearden 21 at Hardin Valley 22 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Raleigh-Egypt 42 at King Prep 6
  • Kirby 52 at Kingsbury 2
  • Trezevant 24 at KIPP Collegiate 15
  • Brentwood Academy 31 at Knox Catholic 16 (8:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
  • Mitchell 32 at Manassas 3
  • Stewarts Creek 38 at McGavock 9
  • Bluff City 23 at Memphis Business Academy 19
  • Carter 25 at Morristown West 20
  • Rossview 11 at Mount Juliet 33
  • LaVergne 28 at Nashville Overton 18

Friday

  • East Ridge 10 at Anderson Co. 43
  • McCallie 26 at Baylor 15 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
  • Hillsboro 19 at Beech 31 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • Oakland 39 at Blackman 12
  • Marion Co. 15 at Bledsoe Co. 28
  • Cleveland 17 at Bradley Central 34
  • Signal Mountain 25 at Brainerd 17
  • Arlington 30 at Brighton 27
  • Powell 46 at Campbell Co. 7
  • Franklin 24 at Centennial 27
  • Hardin Co. 51 at Chester Co. 0
  • Lipscomb Academy 27 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 20
  • Briarcrest Christian 29 at Christian Brothers 15
  • Unicoi Co. 27.16 at Chuckey-Doak 27.19
  • Davidson Academy 43 at Clarksville Academy 21
  • Pickett Co. 0 at Clay Co. 50
  • Cherokee 42 at Cocke Co. 24
  • Rockvale 18 at Coffee Co. Central 27
  • Huntingdon 49 at Collinwood 5
  • Franklin Co. 17 at Columbia Central 33
  • Warren Co. 13 at Cookeville 36
  • Lookout Valley 8 at Copper Basin 42
  • Collierville 20 at Cordova 24
  • Millington Central 40 at Craigmont 10
  • White House-Heritage 20 at Creek Wood 27
  • Obion Co. 13 at Crockett Co. 36
  • Wartburg 30 at Cumberland Gap 17
  • Ravenwood 45 at Dickson Co. 1
  • Memphis Nighthawks 5 at Donelson Christian Academy 42
  • South Fulton 29 at Dresden 31
  • Northwest 15 at Dyer Co. 40
  • Father Ryan 5 at Ensworth 33
  • Camden Central 20 at Fairview 31
  • Science Hill 20 at Farragut 28
  • Bolton 8 at Fayette Ware 35
  • Cornersville 15 at Fayetteville 30
  • Grace Christian Academy 0 at Friendship Christian 57
  • McKenzie 17 at Gibson Co. 30
  • Hillwood 44 at Glencliff 15 (10/2/19 NOTE: Glencliff has chosen to forfeit the remainder of this season’s games.)
  • Franklin Road Academy 32 at Goodpasture Christian 21
  • Sullivan East 20 at Grainger 32
  • Montgomery Central 37 at Greenbrier 13
  • Cannon Co. 33 at Grundy Co. 17
  • Adamsville 25 at Halls 18
  • Fairley 50 at Hamilton 1
  • Jellico 23 at Hancock Co. 24
  • St. George’s 32 at Harding Academy 27
  • Ripley 13 at Haywood 42
  • Wilson Central 21 at Hendersonville 23
  • Germantown 17 at Henry Co. 32
  • McMinn Co. 52 at Heritage 0
  • Scotts Hill 15 at Hickman Co. 24
  • Douglass [Frederick] 23 at Hillcrest 22
  • Soddy Daisy 37 at Hixson 11
  • Bartlett 9 at Houston 41
  • Chattanooga Central 12 at Howard Tech 36
  • Greenfield 41 at Humboldt 13
  • Gallatin 50 at Hunters Lane 0
  • Mount Pleasant 25 at Huntland 24
  • Brentwood 30 at Independence 27
  • Columbia Academy 20 at Jackson Christian 24
  • Cascade 25 at Jackson Co. 20
  • Dobyns-Bennett 40 at Jefferson Co. 10
  • Claiborne 18 at Johnson Co. 29
  • West Creek 15 at Kenwood 29
  • Central 31 at Knoxville Halls 16
  • Clinton 3 at Knoxville West 44
  • Gleason 0 at Lake Co. 62
  • Evangelical Christian 34 at Lausanne Collegiate 19
  • Marshall Co. 37 at Lawrence Co. 7
  • Walker Valley 31 at Lenoir City 22
  • Eagleville 27 at Lewis Co. 26
  • Jackson South Side 10 at Lexington 24
  • Jackson North Side 33 at Liberty Tech Magnet 14
  • DeKalb Co. 8 at Livingston Academy 36
  • Community 18 at Loretto 35
  • McMinn Central 8 at Loudon 41
  • Stone Memorial 13 at Macon Co. 29
  • Spring Hill 14 at Maplewood 30
  • Fulton 0 at Maryville 52
  • Bolivar Central 10 at McNairy Central 37
  • Wooddale 30 at Melrose 11
  • King’s Academy 29 at Middle Tennessee Christian 28
  • McEwen 48 at Middleton 13
  • Coalfield 22.4 at Midway 22.3
  • Covington 36 at Milan 17
  • Byrns [Jo] 6 at Monterey 36
  • Daniel Boone 38 at Morristown East 19
  • Tullahoma 15 at Nolensville 28
  • Clarksville 31 at Northeast 22
  • Hatley (MS) 21.6 at Northpoint Christian 22.4
  • Alcoa 57 at Northview 0
  • CAK 31 at Notre Dame 27
  • Karns 17 at Oak Ridge 45
  • Memphis East 31 at Oakhaven 10
  • Harriman 7 at Oliver Springs 38
  • Rockwood 7 at Oneida 26
  • Rhea Co. 27 at Ooltewah 21
  • East Nashville 19 at Pearl-Cohn 35
  • GPittman 51 at Pigeon Forge 0
  • Montgomery Bell Academy 27 at Pope John Paul II 15
  • White House 21 at Portland 27
  • Gordonsville 41 at Red Boiling Springs 7
  • Stratford 49 at RePublic 0
  • Zion Christian Academy 20 at Richland 31
  • Munford 19 at Ridgeway 33
  • Houston Co. 19 at Riverside 21
  • Austin-East 30 at Scott 16
  • East Hamilton 47 at Sequoyah 0
  • Gibbs 27 at Sevier Co. 21
  • South-Doyle 44 at Seymour 2
  • Rosa Fort (MS) 49 at Sheffield 0
  • Lincoln Co. 14 at Shelbyville Central 38
  • Riverdale 41 at Siegel 11
  • Boyd-Buchanan 33 at Silverdale Academy 17
  • Sequatchie Co. 23 at Smith Co. 29
  • Cane Ridge 31 at Smyrna 20
  • Westview 22 at South Gibson 35
  • Cosby 0 at South Greene 54
  • Memphis Overton 6 at Southwind 41
  • Memphis University 46 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 0
  • Lebanon 35 at Station Camp 6
  • Cheatham Co. Central 11 at Stewart Co. 36
  • Greeneville 56 at Sullivan Central 4
  • Hampton 28 at Sullivan North 17
  • Union Co. 18 at Sullivan South 36
  • Forrest 29 at Summertown 11
  • Page 18 at Summit 28
  • Oakdale 16 at Sunbright 27
  • Red Bank 39 at Sweetwater 16
  • Harpeth 14 at Sycamore 29
  • Tyner Academy 38 at Tellico Plains 12
  • Tipton-Rosemark Academy 17 at Trinity Christian Academy 29
  • East Robertson 5 at Trousdale Co. 40
  • Cloudland 39 at Unaka 13
  • Peabody 40 at Union City 8
  • Nashville Christian 20 at University School of Jackson 24
  • Tennessee 47 at Volunteer 11
  • Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 23 at Washington 19
  • East Hickman Co. 16 at Waverly Central 42
  • Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 20 at Wayne Co. 30
  • Grace Christian 24 at Webb 26
  • North Greene 8 at West Greene 43
  • Watertown 28 at Westmoreland 20
  • Freedom Prep Academy 44 at Westwood 5
  • Memphis Central 20 at White Station 26
  • Giles Co. 41 at Whites Creek 17
  • Sale Creek 19 at Whitwell 30
  • Elizabethton 44 at William Blount 11
  • Upperman 42 at York Institute 6

161 games in all, and 149 of them are in Region play. Nearly every game this week will have some amount of an effect on the state playoffs, which means a lot of these games have serious, heightened importance. I whittled it down to a rough list of 14 games worth keeping an eye on, but these five are the best, from my perspective:

  • McCallie at Baylor (Friday, 7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV). I mean, what more could you want? It’s the best class in the state (II-AAA) with two of the eight or so best teams in Tennessee playing and it’s a historic rivalry AND they’re both undefeated. If McCallie wins this one, it’s hard to see how they lose a game against Tennessee competition (Clearwater Academy from Florida does come to town in Week 10, and that figures to be a close one). Baylor, meanwhile, has lost four of five against McCallie after winning six straight in the rivalry from 2009 to 2013; this is their best team since 2011, so it would be ideal for them to take advantage.
  • Brentwood at Independence (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Two teams with better-than-expected seasons, both sitting at 5-1, both with a real chance to make a run in the state playoffs. (Collectively, one of Brentwood, Ravenwood, and Independence has around a 42% shot to make the state title game.) After a Week 1 loss to Summit, Independence has won five straight. Lately, this series has been pretty close; four of the last five games were decided by 11 points or less, three by 3 points or fewer.
  • Brentwood Academy at Knox Catholic (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2). Yes, ESPN2! This was a little better of a game in preseason when BA was the #1 team in the state and KCHS was, at worst, top eight, but it’s still a game between a top four team and a top 25 team on national television, and we don’t get that very often. Catholic’s playoff odds become dire if they can’t find a way to win this game or the Baylor game in Week 9. All Brentwood has to do to wrap up a playoff spot is win two of their final three Region games, all of which they’re double-digit favorites in.
  • Briarcrest Christian at Christian Brothers (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This is Briarcrest’s best team in possibly two decades, a group stacked with great playmakers on both sides of the ball. Christian Brothers, meanwhile, has mostly dominated this rivalry as of late: winners of four of the last five and 11 of 14. For Briarcrest to truly prove itself as a II-AAA title contender, this is a win they badly need.
  • East Nashville at Pearl-Cohn (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Essentially everything you’d want from 3A football. These are two of the four best teams in 3A, playing just four miles apart; all it requires is a ride across the Jefferson Street bridge to get from one school to another. My system has been high on Pearl-Cohn all season long, and it’s mostly paid off, but East Nashville is far from anything to sneeze at. The Eagles just beat BGA on the road last Friday and they’ve shut out four opponents. It’s a shame that only one of these two teams can advance past the 3A quarterfinals.
  • Honorable Mentions: Page at Summit (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Nashville Christian at University School of Jackson (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Knoxville Central at Knoxville Halls (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Eagleville at Lewis Co. (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cane Ridge at Smyrna (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Houston Co. at Riverside (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Watertown at Westmoreland (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); White House-Heritage at Creek Wood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Coalfield at Midway (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link or below:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

Via the Jackson Sun.

Tennessee high school football projections, week 6

Officially the midpoint week of the Tennessee high school football season! I wrote about checking how things were going state-wide earlier this week; now, we can look at this week in particular, game-by-game. Last week, my projections went 138-28 (83.1%), almost exactly what was expected (138.8-27.2, or 83.6%). The projections are now 671-187 (78.2%) on the full season.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Last week was a weird one – ten games ended with a one-point margin, which is the most of any week this year…but only 14 other games ended with a margin of seven or less, and 37 games were decided by 40+ points. The best game was clearly Portland/West Creek, an insane game that West Creek won, 51-50. The biggest upset of the week was Greenbrier over White House-Heritage (3.3% odds of happening), which was merely a team on a nine-game losing streak defeating a team that was 3-1 with wins by scores of 42-13, 34-7, and 42-0.

This week should be more competitive. 26 games have a projected margin of four points or less, while 18 additional games are expected to be decided by single digits. There’s still a lot of expected blowouts, to be sure, but that’s the nature of in-season play.

Favorites are expected to go 130.4-32.6 (80%), which is about 3% lower than last week. More upsets, possibly! Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 5:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 76-55 (58%); 8-4 last week
  • 60-69%: 101-57 (63.9%); 14-9 last week
  • 70-79%: 96-48 (66.7%); 17-7 last week
  • 80-89%: 128-16 (88.9%); 29-4 last week
  • 90-99%: 269-12 (95.7%); 70-4 last week

Again, for the most part, these are about exactly where I would expect them to be…except for the unusual stinginess of the 70-79% group. However, over the last three weeks, that group has gone 61-25 (70.9%), so there could be a long-term rise coming. These are the things I force myself to keep track of.

Now, for this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

  • Memphis Business Academy 0 at Freedom Prep Academy 56
  • Manassas 20 at KIPP Collegiate 17
  • Summertown 26 at Loretto 16
  • Hamilton 2 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 38
  • Washington 14 at Middle College 31
  • Hillcrest 14 at Trezevant 27
  • Sevier Co. 21 at William Blount 30 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)

Friday

  • Tyner Academy 10 at Alcoa 39
  • Jefferson Co. 15 at Anderson Co. 39
  • Smyrna 40 at Antioch 5
  • Sheffield 0 at Arlington 49
  • Brainerd 6 at Austin-East 42
  • East Nashville 25 at Battle Ground Academy 23
  • Memphis East 31 at Bluff City 10
  • Fayette Ware 29 at Bolivar Central 15
  • Northpoint Christian 26 at Bolton 17
  • Christ Presbyterian Academy 15 at Brentwood 40
  • West Toronto Prep 2 at Brentwood Academy 44
  • Madison Ridgeland Academy (MS) 20 at Briarcrest Christian 28
  • Kingsbury 9 at Brighton 43
  • Chattanooga Christian 24 at CAK 26
  • Nashville Overton 9 at Cane Ridge 39
  • South-Doyle 37 at Carter 8
  • Shelbyville Central 33 at Centennial 25
  • Knox Central (KY) 7 at Central 39
  • East Hickman Co. 15 at Cheatham Co. Central 30
  • Adamsville 26 at Chester Co. 16
  • South Greene 35 at Chuckey-Doak 20
  • Dyer Co. 30 at Clarksville 25
  • Avery Co. (NC) 37 at Cloudland 13
  • Cookeville 32 at Coffee Co. Central 16
  • Zion Christian Academy 28 at Collinwood 20
  • Cascade 24 at Community 28
  • North Georgia (GA) 16 at Copper Basin 37
  • Whitehaven 32 at Cordova 17
  • Middle Tennessee Christian 16 at Cornersville 34
  • Ripley 5 at Covington 48
  • Sycamore 9 at Creek Wood 35
  • Dobyns-Bennett 43 at Daniel Boone 14
  • Tipton-Rosemark Academy 21 at Davidson Academy 38
  • Cannon Co. 21 at DeKalb Co. 26
  • Grace Baptist Academy 8 at Donelson Christian Academy 36
  • Mitchell 21 at Douglass [Frederick] 19
  • Signal Mountain 21 at East Ridge 22
  • Byrns [Jo] 13 at East Robertson 28
  • Cherokee 21 at Elizabethton 41
  • Collierville 16 at Evangelical Christian 28
  • Maryville 38 at Farragut 10
  • Germantown 22.3 at Father Ryan 22.1
  • Jackson Christian 14 at Fayette Academy 37
  • Richland 10 at Fayetteville 38
  • Lawrence Co. 12 at Forrest 34
  • Grundy Co. 10 at Franklin Co. 39
  • RePublic 0 at Franklin Road Academy 53
  • Rhea Co. 25 at Gibbs 20
  • Page 35 at Giles Co. 23
  • Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 35 at Gleason 18
  • Whites Creek 29 at Glencliff 21
  • Hillwood 26 at Goodpasture Christian 37
  • Coalfield 27 at Gordonsville 16
  • Trinity Academy Tri-Cities 10 at GPittman 39
  • Fairview 35 at Greenbrier 20
  • Fulton Co. (KY) 16 at Greenfield 36
  • Fulton City (KY) 6 at Halls 47
  • Johnson Co. 15 at Hampton 29
  • Melrose 14 at Hardin Co. 30
  • Knoxville West 32 at Hardin Valley 10
  • McNairy Central 37 at Harding Academy 15
  • Montgomery Central 38 at Harpeth 6
  • Rockwood 25 at Harriman 14
  • Independence 32 at Hendersonville 21
  • Kenwood 5 at Henry Co. 35
  • Lewis Co. 32 at Hickman Co. 14
  • Boyd-Buchanan 37 at Hixson 17
  • Milan 21 at Huntingdon 38
  • Dyersburg 27.8 at Jackson North Side 28.4
  • Union City 20 at Jackson South Side 24
  • North Greene 13 at Jellico 38
  • Campbell Co. 33 at Karns 30
  • Friendship Christian 35 at King’s Academy 21
  • Stone Memorial 16 at Kingston 28
  • Science Hill 19 at Knox Catholic 31
  • Powell 36 at Knoxville Halls 14
  • Westview 30.6 at Lake Co. 30.8
  • Wooddale 25 at Lausanne Collegiate 27
  • Beech 27 at Lebanon 18
  • Greenback 39 at Lenoir City 15
  • Crockett Co. 15 at Lexington 24
  • Craigmont 19 at Liberty Tech Magnet 28
  • Huntland 38 at Lookout Valley 9
  • Polk Co. 0 at Loudon 48
  • Trousdale Co. 28 at Macon Co. 12
  • Waverly Central 42 at McEwen 18
  • Franklin 30 at McGavock 11
  • Bearden 15 at McMinn Co. 28
  • McMinn Central 7 at Meigs Co. 42
  • Christian Brothers 23 at Memphis Central 20
  • Fairley 10 at Memphis University 39
  • Tellico Plains 23 at Midway 26
  • First Assembly Christian 22.5 at Millington Central 23.1
  • Jackson Co. 10 at Monterey 34
  • Ensworth 20 at Montgomery Bell Academy 15
  • Eagleville 30 at Moore Co. 23
  • Maplewood 14 at Mount Juliet 31
  • Wayne Co. 15 at Mount Pleasant 39
  • Memphis Overton 12 at Munford 38
  • Clarksville Academy 8 at Nashville Christian 41
  • Columbia Central 19 at Nolensville 32
  • West Creek 27.3 at Northeast 27.1
  • Union Co. 33 at Northview 14
  • Clinton 14 at Oak Ridge 40
  • Red Boiling Springs 21 at Oakdale 23
  • Westwood 24 at Oakhaven 17
  • Dresden 23 at Obion Co. 30
  • Upperman 26 at Oneida 15
  • Scotts Hill 35 at Perry Co. 10
  • Sullivan North 31 at Pigeon Forge 14
  • Christian Co. (KY) 12 at Pope John Paul II 38
  • South Pittsburg 21 at Red Bank 30
  • Southwind 24 at Ridgeway 25
  • Blackman 24 at Riverdale 27 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • Camden Central 28 at Riverside 18
  • Oakland 59 at Rockvale 0
  • Dickson Co. 13 at Rossview 29
  • King Prep 30 at Rossville Christian Academy 24
  • Pickett Co. 19 at Sale Creek 31
  • Cumberland Gap 7 at Scott 30
  • Bledsoe Co. 23 at Sequatchie Co. 21
  • Heritage 17 at Seymour 33
  • Grace Christian 35 at Silverdale Academy 15
  • Livingston Academy 32 at Smith Co. 18
  • Ooltewah 24 at Soddy Daisy 25
  • Middleton 21 at South Fulton 43
  • Haywood 26 at South Gibson 28
  • Marshall Co. 31 at Springfield 19
  • Raleigh-Egypt 14 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 31
  • Kirby 37 at St. George’s 22
  • Stewarts Creek 42 at Station Camp 5
  • McKenzie 28 at Stewart Co. 23
  • Hunters Lane 5 at Stratford 40
  • David Crockett 52 at Sullivan Central 2
  • Unicoi Co. 35 at Sullivan East 18
  • Northwest 8 at Summit 42
  • Sequoyah 9 at Sweetwater 46
  • Abingdon (VA) 18 at Tennessee 32
  • Lincoln Co. 15 at Tullahoma 30
  • Hancock Co. 17 at Twin Springs (VA) 30
  • Happy Valley 44 at Unaka 1
  • Columbia Academy 8 at University School of Jackson 34
  • Cumberland Co. 10 at Walker Valley 39
  • Siegel 25 at Warren Co. 24
  • White House 19 at Watertown 34
  • Notre Dame 23 at Webb 31
  • Grace Christian Academy 23 at Webb Bell Buckle 30
  • Gibson Co. 30 at West Carroll 16
  • McCallie 36 at West Forsyth (GA) 9
  • Cosby 9 at West Greene 40
  • Clay Co. 21 at Westmoreland 23
  • Portland 23 at White House-Heritage 24
  • Bartlett 20 at White Station 28
  • Gallatin 33 at Wilson Central 13
  • White Co. 27 at York Institute 23

Saturday (?)

  • Hillsboro 14 at Pearl-Cohn 40 (5:00 PM CT)

163 games in all, 36 of them in Region play. Some of these are pretty darn important! Here are the five best games this week from my perspective, plus some honorable mentions.

  • East Nashville at Battle Ground Academy (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Well, this was setting up to be one of the best battles the mid-state will offer this year…until BGA got their doors blown off by Christ Presbyterian last week. Anyway, it’s still really good: East Nashville has started 5-0 without a ton of trouble, outside of their defensive strugglefest with Giles County. BGA is 4-1 with the lone loss. It’s hard to beat this game this week.
  • Haywood at South Gibson (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Haywood has followed up their 2018 4A title game run with another team worthy of title contention; they’re undefeated against state competition, though they did get blown out by Olive Branch (MS). South Gibson, meanwhile, has blown by most observers’ expectations, starting out 5-0 by the skin of their teeth. Their last three wins have come by a total of 18 points, all one-score victories; this will be an excellent proving grounds for them.
  • Madison-Ridgeland Academy (MS) at Briarcrest Christian (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This promises to be a fun one. Madison-Ridgeland demolished their first five opponents this season to the tune of a 241-29 score…and then lost at Philadelphia (MS), their first real threat on the schedule. Briarcrest, as highlighted in the midseason review, has blown past all expectations, with a 5-0 record and four wins over top 75 teams in the state. Briarcrest’s excellent defense will have their hands full with the Madison-Ridgeland offense, but on the flip side, it doesn’t appear that MRA’s defense is quite on the same level.
  • Westview at Lake Co. (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This might be the single most-enjoyable game of the week. Westview is having one of the most surprising seasons of all, starting out 4-1 in a year they weren’t expected to get to .500. They average 42 points a game behind Ty Simpson, a four-star QB recruit. Lake Co., meanwhile, has done everything expected of them; they are 4-0 with this game being the only meaningful barrier between them and a 10-0 season. Combined, these two teams are averaging over 86 points a game, and while Lake Co. has yet to allow more than 21 points in a game, they’ve also played just one offense averaging over 30.
  • South Pittsburg at Red Bank (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). It’s such a great thing that this game is happening. The two schools are two of Chattanooga’s best programs, but despite being only 40 minutes apart, they haven’t played each other in at least three decades. (I couldn’t verify it any further.) It’s a match-up of the #1 team in the state’s 1A poll versus the #4 team in the 3A poll. What more could we really want?
  • Honorable Mentions: Powell at Knoxville Halls (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Upperman at Oneida (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Blackman at Riverdale (Friday, 7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV); Marshall Co. at Springfield (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Columbia Central at Nolensville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cherokee at Elizabethton (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Chattanooga Christian at CAK (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link or below:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

The Dipstick: Checking out Tennessee high school football at the season’s midpoint

We’re essentially at the midpoint of the Tennessee high school football season. Most teams have played at least four games, and a lot of teams have played five; you generally know what you’ve got by now. As such, it makes sense to stop, take a look around, and figure out what’s going on. Call this the Dipstick Report: we’re taking a look at the oil, figuring out if changes need to be made or if things are still fine and good. Here’s a report on all six public school classes, the three private school classes, over- and under-achievers, and odds of going undefeated.

1A

WHAT’S CHANGED: …not much? Of the six teams in preseason that had a 10% or better chance to win the championship, three have risen to the top: Huntingdon (the preseason favorite), South Pittsburg (from #3 to #2), and Lake County (#6 to #3). Whitwell has been a gigantic disappointment, starting out 0-5 and now being projected to finish 2-8/3-7. Greenback and Cornersville’s respective roads have been bumpy, but Greenback has recovered to get back to #4; Cornersville, #8.

The biggest surprise is easily Fayetteville, a preseason 3-7 projected team that now has a 71% shot to go undefeated. They rank #6 in the 1A statewide ratings. Freedom Prep Academy is right behind them, playing in a very easy region with a 96% shot at 10-0. Other notables: Oliver Springs, preseason #7, is #9; Mount Pleasant, #8, is #10.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Huntingdon
    2. South Pittsburg
    3. Lake Co.
    4. Greenback
    5. Freedom Prep Academy
    6. Fayetteville
    7. Clay Co.
    8. Cornersville
    9. Oliver Springs
    10. Mount Pleasant
    11. Monterey
    12. Greenfield
    13. Moore Co.
    14. Coalfield
    15. Huntland

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Mount Pleasant at Huntland (Week 7); Cornersville at Fayetteville (Week 7); Greenback at Coalfield (Week 8); Huntland at Moore Co. (Week 9); Coalfield at Oliver Springs (Week 10); Clay Co. at Monterey (Week 10); Cornersville at Huntland (Week 10); Lake Co. at Greenfield (Week 10); Moore Co. at Mount Pleasant (Week 11); Memphis East at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • Region 1: Cloudland, Jellico, Hancock Co., Unaka.
  • Region 2: Greenback, Oliver Springs, Coalfield, Midway.
  • Region 3: South Pittsburg, Copper Basin, Whitwell, Lookout Valley.
  • Region 4: Clay Co., Monterey, Gordonsville, Byrns [Jo].
  • Region 5: Fayetteville, Cornersville, Mount Pleasant, Huntland.
  • Region 6: Huntingdon, McEwen, Wayne Co., Collinwood.
  • Region 7: Lake Co., Greenfield, West Carroll, Dresden.
  • Region 8: Freedom Prep Academy, Middle College, Memphis East, Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: South Pittsburg (1A-3) at Greenback (1A-2); Lake Co. (1A-7) at Huntingdon (1A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: South Pittsburg (1A-3) vs. Huntingdon (1A-6), Friday, December 6.

2A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Almost nothing. Five of the top six in my ratings are the same teams from mid-August, with only Forrest making a surprise entry. Forrest was expected to be good – #12 in the preseason ratings – but they’ve beaten those expectations by a lot with a 5-0 start. The clear favorite, as it was in preseason, is Peabody, last year’s champions. The gap from first-place Peabody to second-place Meigs County is the same at the gap from second to 11th. Trousdale County ranks fourth in title odds. A couple of the preseason back-end title potentials are still hanging around: Watertown, Tyner Academy, South Greene, etc.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Peabody
    2. Meigs Co.
    3. Trousdale Co.
    4. Forrest
    5. Tyner Academy
    6. Fairley
    7. South Greene
    8. Watertown
    9. Oneida
    10. Waverly Central
    11. Eagleville
    12. Gibson Co.
    13. Lewis Co.
    14. Bledsoe Co.
    15. Westmoreland

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Mitchell at Douglass [Frederick] (Week 6); Watertown at Westmoreland (Week 7); Eagleville at Lewis Co. (Week 7); McKenzie at Gibson Co. (Week 7); South Greene at Hampton (Week 9); Meigs Co. at Oneida (Week 9); Waverly Central at Houston Co. (Week 9); Lewis Co. at Forrest (Week 11); Gibson Co. at Peabody (Week 11); Memphis Academy of Health Sciences at Fairley (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • Region 1: South Greene, Happy Valley, Hampton, Sullivan North.
  • Region 2: Meigs Co., Oneida, Rockwood, Wartburg.
  • Region 3: Tyner Academy, Bledsoe Co., Tellico Plains, Marion Co.
  • Region 4: Watertown, Trousdale Co., Westmoreland, East Robertson.
  • Region 5: Forrest, Summertown, Eagleville, Lewis Co.
  • Region 6: Waverly Central, Houston Co., Riverside, Hickman Co.
  • Region 7: Peabody, Gibson Co., McKenzie, Union City.
  • Region 8: Fairley, Mitchell, Memphis Academy of Health Sciences, Douglass [Frederick].

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Trousdale Co. (2A-4) at Meigs Co. (2A-2); Peabody (2A-7) at Forrest (2A-5).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Meigs Co. (2A-2) vs. Peabody (2A-7), Saturday, December 7.

3A

WHAT’S CHANGED: A lot, actually. Alcoa, who has won four straight 3A titles, is still one of the two best in the class…but they’re no longer the title favorite, because Pearl-Cohn is somehow much better than their already-high expectations. Covington, East Nashville, and Red Bank all look very good, too. The biggest stunner is a Loudon team that wasn’t expected to do much more than 4-5 wins, but is on pace for a 9-1 season with a 21% shot to go undefeated. Past that, there’s been some lower-end surprises, both positive (GPittman, Sweetwater, Stewart Co., Westview, South Gibson) and negative (York Institute, Bolivar Central).

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Pearl-Cohn
    2. Alcoa
    3. Covington
    4. East Nashville
    5. Red Bank
    6. South Gibson
    7. Upperman
    8. GPittman
    9. Loudon
    10. Wooddale
    11. Stratford
    12. Westview
    13. Austin-East
    14. Milan
    15. McNairy Central

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: East Nashville at Pearl-Cohn (Week 7); Covington at Milan (Week 7); Westview at South Gibson (Week 7); Austin-East at GPittman (Week 8); Stratford at East Nashville (Week 9); Sweetwater at Loudon (Week 9); McNairy Central at Milan (Week 9); South Gibson at Covington (Week 9); GPittman at Alcoa (Week 10); Signal Mountain at Sweetwater (Week 11); Covington at McNairy Central (Week 11); Milan at Westview (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • Region 1: Unicoi Co., Chuckey-Doak, Johnson Co., West Greene.
  • Region 2: Alcoa, GPittman, Austin-East, Kingston.
  • Region 3: Red Bank, Loudon, Sweetwater, Signal Mountain.
  • Region 4: Upperman, Smith Co., Sequatchie Co., York Institute.
  • Region 5: Pearl-Cohn, East Nashville, Stratford, Giles Co.
  • Region 6: Fairview, Camden Central, Sycamore, Stewart Co.
  • Region 7: Covington, South Gibson, Westview, Milan.
  • Region 8: Wooddale, Melrose, Raleigh-Egypt, Sheffield.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Red Bank (3A-3) at Alcoa (3A-2); Covington (3A-7) at Pearl-Cohn (3A-5).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Alcoa (3A-2) vs. Pearl-Cohn (3A-5), Friday, December 6.

4A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Well…I thought more would have changed by now, but essentially nothing is different. The top two teams in the state are the same (Greeneville and Anderson Co.), though Greenville’s giant margin on the rest of the field has been mostly erased. Elizabethton has been better than expected, which has made them the third-best team in 4A instead of merely fifth-best. Livingston Academy (+3.85 wins over expectation) has been a nice surprise, as has Fayette Ware (+4.57), but largely, not a ton is different from preseason. Other than that…Maplewood is a bit lesser than expected, I guess?

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Greeneville
    2. Anderson Co.
    3. Elizabethton
    4. Nolensville
    5. Marshall Co.
    6. Haywood
    7. Livingston Academy
    8. Hardin Co.
    9. Tullahoma
    10. East Hamilton
    11. Maplewood
    12. Creek Wood
    13. Springfield
    14. Montgomery Central
    15. Lexington

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Tullahoma at Nolensville (Week 7); Springfield at Montgomery Central (Week 8); Greeneville at Elizabethton (Week 9); Maplewood at Nolensville (Week 9); Lexington at Hardin Co. (Week 9); Anderson Co. at East Hamilton (Week 10); Creek Wood at Portland (Week 10); East Hamilton at Howard Tech (Week 11); Maplewood at Tullahoma (Week 11); Nolensville at Marshall Co. (Week 11); Springfield at Creek Wood (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • Region 1: Greeneville, Elizabethton, Sullivan South, Union Co.
  • Region 2: Anderson Co., East Hamilton, Howard Tech, East Ridge.
  • Region 3: Livingston Academy, Macon Co., DeKalb Co., Stone Memorial.
  • Region 4: Marshall Co., Nolensville, Tullahoma, Maplewood.
  • Region 5: Springfield, Montgomery Central, Portland, Creek Wood.
  • Region 6: Hardin Co., Lexington, Jackson North Side, Jackson South Side.
  • Region 7: Haywood, Dyersburg, Crockett Co., Ripley.
  • Region 8: Millington Central, Fayette Ware, Craigmont, Bolton.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Marshall Co. (4A-4) at Greeneville (4A-1); Haywood (4A-7) at Hardin Co. (4A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Greeneville (4A-1) vs. Haywood (4A-7), Saturday, December 7.

5A

WHAT’S CHANGED: I don’t know that any poll blew it as hard as the preseason 5A poll on this site did. Only six of the ten teams are still in the top ten, with #3 and #4 disappearing quickly. The preseason favorite, Central, now ranks #5 through no fault of their own – it’s simply that their competition is way tougher this year. Powell, Gallatin, and South-Doyle have all been better than the numbers anticipated, and Knoxville West has taken an already-very-good team to being great. And that doesn’t even mention who’s behind Central: David Crockett, Summit, Henry Co., Beech, etc. I can’t promise this too thoroughly, but I think this is going to be the most wide-open class of all. I have eight teams at 5% or better to win the title, with nine having a realistic shot to make the title game.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Powell
    2. Gallatin
    3. Knoxville West
    4. South-Doyle
    5. Central
    6. David Crockett
    7. Summit
    8. Henry Co.
    9. Beech
    10. Shelbyville Central
    11. Page
    12. Tennessee
    13. Hillsboro
    14. Oak Ridge
    15. Dyer Co.

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Dyer Co. at Clarksville (Week 6); Southwind at Ridgeway (Week 6); Central at Knoxville Halls (Week 7); Page at Summit (Week 7); Hillsboro at Beech (Week 7); David Crockett at Cherokee (Week 8); Knoxville West at Powell (Week 8); Tennessee at David Crockett (Week 9); Knoxville Halls at South-Doyle (Week 9); Summit at Shelbyville Central (Week 9); Page at Columbia Central (Week 9); Kirby at Munford (Week 9); David Crockett at Daniel Boone (Week 10); Cherokee at Tennessee (Week 10); Central at South-Doyle (Week 10); Oak Ridge at Powell (Week 10); Gallatin at Beech (Week 10); Daniel Boone at Cherokee (Week 11); Central at Gibbs (Week 11); Columbia Central at Shelbyville Central (Week 11); Ridgeway at Kirby (Week 11). Hey, can you tell yet that this is an ultra-competitive class?

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • Region 1: David Crockett, Tennessee, Cherokee, Daniel Boone.
  • Region 2: South-Doyle, Central, Knoxville Halls, Gibbs.
  • Region 3: Powell, Knoxville West, Oak Ridge, Karns.
  • Region 4: Rhea Co., Soddy Daisy, Walker Valley, Lenoir City.
  • Region 5: Summit, Page, Shelbyville Central, Columbia Central.
  • Region 6: Gallatin, Beech, Hillsboro, Hunters Lane.
  • Region 7: Henry Co., Dyer Co., Clarksville, Kenwood.
  • Region 8: Southwind, Ridgeway, Kirby, Munford.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Powell (5A-3) at South-Doyle (5A-2); Henry Co. (5A-7) at Gallatin (5A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Powell (5A-3) vs. Gallatin (5A-6), Friday, December 6.

6A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Of course nothing’s changed. The top two teams, as it’s been for seemingly 20 years now, are Oakland and Maryville. Whitehaven, as it’s been for ten years, is lurking right behind. The only differences are that Mount Juliet and Farragut, two teams I had singled out to be dark-horse champion picks, are worse than expected, while Dobyns-Bennett has come out of nowhere to own 6A-1. Brentwood’s upset of Ravenwood upset the apple cart a little and cemented Brentwood as one of the pleasant surprises of 2019. They aren’t really a stunning surprise, but Houston has been better than expected, has won every swing game, and has a 68% shot of a 10-0 season.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Oakland
    2. Maryville
    3. Whitehaven
    4. Houston
    5. Dobyns-Bennett
    6. Ravenwood
    7. Brentwood
    8. Bradley Central
    9. Independence
    10. Mount Juliet
    11. Cordova
    12. McMinn Co.
    13. Stewarts Creek
    14. Cane Ridge
    15. Science Hill

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Blackman at Riverdale (Week 6); Science Hill at Farragut (Week 7); Brentwood at Independence (Week 7); Collierville at Cordova (Week 7); Memphis Central at White Station (Week 7); Houston at Collierville (Week 8); Whitehaven at White Station (Week 8); Science Hill at Dobyns-Bennett (Week 10); Cordova at Houston (Week 10); Bradley Central at McMinn Co. (Week 11); Mount Juliet at Hendersonville (Week 11); Independence at Ravenwood (Week 11); White Station at Germantown (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below.

  • Region 1: Dobyns-Bennett, Science Hill, Farragut, Bearden.
  • Region 2: Maryville, Bradley Central, McMinn Co., Cleveland.
  • Region 3: Oakland, Riverdale, Blackman, Cookeville.
  • Region 4: Mount Juliet, Lebanon, Wilson Central, Hendersonville.
  • Region 5: Cane Ridge, Stewarts Creek, Smyrna, LaVergne.
  • Region 6: Brentwood, Ravenwood, Independence, Centennial.
  • Region 7: Houston, Bartlett, Collierville, Cordova.
  • Region 8: Whitehaven, White Station, Memphis Central, Germantown.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Oakland (6A-3) at Maryville (6A-2); Houston (6A-7) at Brentwood (6A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Oakland (6A-3) vs. Houston (6A-7), Saturday, December 7.

II-A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Lots! Sort of. The current statewide favorite was #5 in the preseason poll, #2 was #6, and #1 and #2 are now #4 and #5. University School of Jackson has emerged out of the pile-up to become the temporary II-A favorite, with Nashville Christian and Fayette Academy right behind. The biggest surprise is probably Donelson Christian Academy (+3.98 wins over expectation), emerging from the cellar to be a serious title contender.

TOP 10 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. University School of Jackson
    2. Nashville Christian
    3. Fayette Academy
    4. Davidson Academy
    5. Friendship Christian
    6. Trinity Christian Academy
    7. Donelson Christian Academy
    8. Columbia Academy
    9. Jackson Christian
    10. Tipton-Rosemark Academy

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Nashville Christian at University School of Jackson (Week 7); Nashville Christian at Fayette Academy (Week 8); University School of Jackson at Davidson Academy (Week 8); Fayette Academy at University School of Jackson (Week 9); Davidson Academy at Trinity Christian Academy (Week 9); Davidson Academy at Fayette Academy (Week 10); Nashville Christian at Trinity Christian Academy (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, from #1 seed to #6.

  • East: Friendship Christian, Donelson Christian Academy, King’s Academy, Middle Tennessee Christian, Mount Juliet Christian Academy, Grace Baptist Academy.
  • West: University School of Jackson, Nashville Christian, Fayette Academy, Davidson Academy, Trinity Christian Academy, Tipton-Rosemark Academy.

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Nashville Christian (II-A West #2) vs. University School of Jackson (II-A West #1), Thursday, December 5.

II-AA

WHAT’S CHANGED: Preseason favorite Christ Presbyterian Academy has had a disastrous start, beginning the season 0-4 before an upset win over Battle Ground Academy last week. In their #1 stead is Evangelical Christian, who hasn’t won a state title since 2005. Just below them is the surprise of the season: Lipscomb Academy, with head coach Trent Dilfer (yes, the QB), who last won a title in 2007. Battle Ground is right behind them. A special shoutout to Boyd-Buchanan, who went 0-10 last year but is tracking towards a 6-4 or 7-3 season.

TOP 10 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. Evangelical Christian
    2. Lipscomb Academy
    3. Battle Ground Academy
    4. Christ Presbyterian Academy
    5. Franklin Road Academy
    6. Lausanne Collegiate
    7. Grace Christian
    8. Webb
    9. CAK
    10. Chattanooga Christian

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Chattanooga Christian at CAK (Week 6); Grace Christian at Webb (Week 7); Lipscomb Academy at Christ Presbyterian Academy (Week 7); Evangelical Christian at Lausanne Collegiate (Week 7); Grace Christian at Chattanooga Christian (Week 8); Franklin Road Academy at Battle Ground Academy (Week 8); Webb at Chattanooga Christian (Week 10); CAK at Grace Christian (Week 10); Webb at CAK (Week 11); Christ Presbyterian Academy at Franklin Road Academy (Week 11); Battle Ground Academy at Lipscomb Academy (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, from #1 seed to #5 and #1 to #6 for West.

  • East: Grace Christian, Chattanooga Christian, CAK, Webb, Boyd-Buchanan.
  • Middle: Lipscomb Academy, Christ Presbyterian Academy, Battle Ground Academy, Franklin Road Academy, Goodpasture Christian.
  • West: Evangelical Christian, Lausanne Collegiate, First Assembly Christian, St. George’s, Harding Academy, Northpoint Christian.

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Lipscomb Academy (II-AA Middle #1) vs. Evangelical Christian (II-AA West #1), Thursday, December 5.

II-AAA

WHAT’S CHANGED: How about this: the preseason #1 team in the state is now projected to finish third in its region (Brentwood Academy), and the preseason #3 is expected to miss the playoffs altogether (Knoxville Catholic). McCallie, somewhat out of nowhere, looks like the best team in the state and in this class. Because of how hyper-competitive this class is, a team like Ensworth can be one of the ten best teams in the state…..and also be fourth in its own region. It’s nuts, man. Briarcrest Christian has surprised a lot of people positively; on the flip side, this is one of the more disappointing Montgomery Bell Academy teams anyone can recall.

TOP 10 TEAMS: Are below.

    1. McCallie
    2. Brentwood Academy
    3. Baylor
    4. Ensworth
    5. Briarcrest Christian
    6. Memphis University
    7. Montgomery Bell Academy
    8. Knox Catholic
    9. Christian Brothers
    10. Pope John Paul II

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: McCallie at Baylor (Week 7); Brentwood Academy at Knox Catholic (Week 7); Briarcrest Christian at Christian Brothers (Week 7); Montgomery Bell Academy at Pope John Paul II (Week 7); Knox Catholic at Baylor (Week 9); Memphis University at Pope John Paul II (Week 9); Ensworth at Brentwood Academy (Week 10); Ensworth at McCallie (Week 11); Baylor at Brentwood Academy (Week 11); Christian Brothers at Montgomery Bell Academy (Week 11); Memphis University at Briarcrest Christian (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

  • East: McCallie, Baylor, Brentwood Academy, Ensworth.
  • West: Briarcrest Christian, Montgomery Bell Academy, Memphis University, Christian Brothers.

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Baylor (II-AAA East #2) vs. McCallie (II-AAA East #1), Thursday, December 5.

Who’s surprising everyone?

By nature of kids being kids, ratings are going to have a ton of variance. Still, high school football teams mostly oscillate within a reasonable expectation – of the 342 teams I cover, 308 are expected to end up within three wins of their original expectation. However, that leaves 34 teams that have either seriously over- or under-achieved to date. Let’s narrow that down to the five biggest surprises on each side. In the interest of being kind, I’m only writing capsules on teams that have over-achieved; I can’t imagine that anyone, especially players and fans of teams mentioned, want to read about how badly their team has missed expectations.

OVERACHIEVERS:

  1. Fayetteville (5-0, 1A-5, +7.16 wins over expectation). SEVEN POINT ONE SIX!!!!!! This is the third year I’ve done this, and just once has a team even breached +5. Fayetteville went 1-9 last year and has completely reversed course; they’re on track to finish 10-0, with a 71% chance of doing so. What an immense turnaround by new head coach Kenny Morson.
  2. Westview (4-1, 3A-7, +5.26 wins). To be quite honest, I don’t know if these projections quite understood that Westview would be unearthing a four-star quarterback that Alabama and Auburn are both desperate to get. While the offense is, obviously, much better (17.2 more points per game in 2019), the defense has improved quite a bit, too, holding Gibson Co. and Dresden to a combined 16 points. Matt McConnell is their first-year head coach with a record of 54-14 overall now, having already engineered one complete turnaround at Waverly Central. It seems like he’s destined for brighter things.
  3. Cherokee (5-0, 5A-1, +4.59 wins). Check out Cherokee! One of the more consistently okay programs in the state (in the last 14 years, they’ve finished with exactly five losses seven times!) appears to be capital-B Back, exploding past everyone’s expectations to be on track for a 7-3ish season. The key difference from last year to now is clearly the defense, which has gone from being one of the worst units in East Tennessee to one of the best – a 23-point-per-game improvement.
  4. Fayette Ware (4-0, 4A-8, +4.57 wins). It really wasn’t that long ago – 2008 to 2014 – when Fayette Ware lost 66 straight games across seven seasons. This millennium alone, they’re gone winless ten times. Now, out of basically nowhere, they’ve emerged as a shocking playoff team from 4A-8 with a 12% chance at going undefeated. This is one of my favorite stories of the year.
  5. Copper Basin (4-1, 1A-3, +4.52 wins). In a nod to a team on the negative side of this list, Copper Basin took a result that would have been stunning preseason – a 46-27 win over Whitwell – and made it look easy. Copper Basin last finished with a winning record in 2014 and has essentially done very little outside of one 10-win season in 2010; considering they’re on track for a 7-8 win season, they should have a lot to celebrate.

Honorable mentions: Loudon (+4.52 wins), Boyd-Buchanan (+4.25 wins), Knoxville West (+4.13 wins), Gallatin (+4.08 wins), Dobyns-Bennett (+4.01).

UNDERACHIEVERS:

  1. Whitwell (0-5, 1A-3, -6.45 wins under expectation).
  2. Polk County (0-5, 2A-3, -5.69 wins).
  3. Fulton (0-5, 5A-3, -5.67 wins).
  4. York Institute (2-3, 3A-4, -4.54 wins).
  5. Northeast (0-5, 5A-7, -4.50 wins).

Who can still go undefeated?

Per my spreadsheet, it looks like there’s still 45 teams left with a chance to go undefeated. All of these teams are at least 4-0, and around 75% of them are 5-0. Some of them even play each other! (A special shoutout to the incredible Powell/Knoxville West game coming up soon.) Here’s how the teams rank from 1 to 45, in terms of odds of going undefeated.

    1. Freedom Prep Academy (5-0, 1A-8, 95.69% odds of going undefeated)
    2. Oakland (5-0, 6A-3, 94.41%)
    3. Peabody (5-0, 2A-7, 86.93%)
    4. Huntingdon (5-0, 1A-6, 84.68%)
    5. Maryville (4-0, 6A-2, 82.42%)
    6. Fayetteville (5-0, 1A-5, 70.74%)
    7. Houston (5-0, 6A-7, 68.55%)
    8. Covington (5-0, 3A-7, 65.78%)
    9. Livingston Academy (5-0, 4A-3, 62.85%)
    10. Pearl-Cohn (5-0, 3A-5, 61.13%)
    11. Forrest (5-0, 2A-5, 60.96%)
    12. South Greene (5-0, 2A-1, 54.67%)
    13. David Crockett (4-0, 5A-1, 54.08%)
    14. Gallatin (5-0, 5A-6, 52.37%)
    15. Summit (5-0, 5A-5, 39.85%)
    16. McCallie (5-0, II-AAA East, 38.36%)
    17. Elizabethton (4-0, 4A-1, 36.92%)
    18. Red Bank (5-0, 3A-3, 35.76%)
    19. Powell (5-0, 5A-3, 35.17%)
    20. Dobyns-Bennett (4-0, 6A-1, 34.39%)
    21. Lake Co. (4-0, 1A-7, 30.49%)
    22. Briarcrest Christian (5-0, II-AAA West, 30.32%)
    23. Knoxville West (5-0, 5A-3, 27.48%)
    24. Meigs Co. (5-0, 2A-2, 26.99%)
    25. Central (5-0, 5A-2, 25.99%)
    26. Loudon (5-0, 3A-3, 20.67%)
    27. Beech (5-0, 5A-6, 17.53%)
    28. University School of Jackson (4-0, II-A West, 16.83%)
    29. South Pittsburg (5-0, 1A-3, 16.42%)
    30. Nolensville (4-0, 4A-4, 15.20%)
    31. Nashville Christian (4-0, II-A West, 14.44%)
    32. Clay Co. (5-0, 1A-4, 13.76%)
    33. Greenfield (5-0, 1A-7, 12.45%)
    34. Fayette Ware (4-0, 4A-8, 11.73%)
    35. Monterey (5-0, 1A-4, 10.53%)
    36. Houston Co. (5-0, 2A-6, 7.95%)
    37. Rhea Co. (4-0, 5A-4, 5.81%)
    38. GPittman (5-0, 3A-2, 5.64%)
    39. Baylor (5-0, II-AAA East, 5.20%)
    40. East Nashville (5-0, 3A-5, 4.98%)
    41. South Gibson (5-0, 3A-7, 4.94%)
    42. CAK (5-0, II-AA East, 4.35%)
    43. McMinn Co. (4-0, 6A-2, 0.55%)
    44. Cherokee (5-0, 5A-1, 0.32%)
    45. Knoxville Halls (5-0, 5A-2, 0.28%)

We’re on track for around 15-16 undefeated teams in the end, though there were around 20 last season. Six of these teams actually play each other this week: South Pittsburg (5-0) at Red Bank (5-0), Cherokee (5-0) at Elizabethton (4-0), and Powell (5-0) at Knoxville Halls (5-0). That’s pretty good!

Via @JPIIAthletics on Twitter.

Tennessee high school football projections, week 5

Week five has arrived! Last week’s projections finished about two wins below expectation, though still pretty good: 131-35 (78.9%), putting these picks at 533-159 (77%) on the season. It’s about four wins below where I’d like to be, but again, we’ve hit the goal of 77% and all four wins would do is get us to 77.6%. It’s a small-enough margin that I’m comfortable with.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Last week ended up being better than expected! 39 of 166 (23.5%) games ended with an eight-point or lower margin. The Blowout of the Week Award goes to Macon County, who defeated Glencliff by a final score of 70-8. (Serious credit to Glencliff for going for two.) NINE GAMES (!!!) ended with a one-point margin, which is easily the best output I’ve seen to date. (The best of these had to be Beech-Hendersonville, which ended with a Beech TD on the final play.)

This week is expected to be the least-competitive so far. Only 31 of the 167 games are projected within 7.5 points, and an astounding 74 games have the favorite at 90% or better to win. Hopefully, like last week, it’s more competitive than expected, but there seem to be a lot of likely blowouts. Favorites are expected to go 139.5-27.5 (83.5%). Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 4:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 68-51 (57.1%); 9-9 last week
  • 60-69%: 87-48 (64.4%); 19-12 last week
  • 70-79%: 79-41 (65.8%); 24-11 last week
  • 80-89%: 99-12 (89.2%); 21-2 last week
  • 90-100%: 199-8 (96.1%); 58-1 last week

No real earth-shattering upsets last week, though Smyrna defeated Riverdale as a 23-point underdog, 27-17.

Now, for this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

  • Knoxville Halls 30 at Carter 15 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 21 at Hillcrest 14
  • Hamilton 17 at KIPP Collegiate 25
  • Raleigh-Egypt 13 at Melrose 27
  • Bluff City 7 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 30
  • Memphis East 30 at Memphis Business Academy 18
  • King Prep 20 at Sheffield 26

Friday

  • Peabody 41 at Adamsville 2
  • Pigeon Forge 0 at Alcoa 64
  • Houston 43 at Arlington 13
  • Cordova 35 at Bartlett 12
  • Sweetwater 29 at Brainerd 19
  • Ravenwood 33 at Brentwood 20
  • Father Ryan 3 at Brentwood Academy 38
  • Munford 27 at Brighton 26
  • Red Boiling Springs 7 at Byrns [Jo] 36
  • Silverdale Academy 15 at CAK 34
  • Cheatham Co. Central 8 at Camden Central 37
  • Antioch 0 at Cane Ridge 52
  • Upperman 37 at Cannon Co. 11
  • Watertown 45 at Cascade 8
  • Seymour 0 at Central 47
  • East Hamilton 31 at Chattanooga Central 12
  • Boyd-Buchanan 22 at Chattanooga Christian 29
  • Volunteer 21 at Cherokee 44 (7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV)
  • Liberty Tech Magnet 23 at Chester Co. 21
  • Battle Ground Academy 36 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 17
  • Pope John Paul II 25 at Christian Brothers 21
  • Henry Co. 34 at Clarksville 19
  • Trinity Christian Academy 28 at Clarksville Academy 21
  • Gordonsville 16 at Clay Co. 31
  • Heritage 7 at Cleveland 50
  • White Station 27 at Collierville 19
  • Perry Co. 11 at Collinwood 36
  • Nashville Christian 29 at Columbia Academy 15
  • Eagleville 38 at Community 17
  • Oakland 47 at Cookeville 3
  • Mount Pleasant 27 at Cornersville 22
  • Happy Valley 39 at Cosby 3
  • Westview 20 at Covington 38
  • Bolton 7 at Crockett Co. 41
  • Macon Co. 36 at Cumberland Co. 6
  • Oneida 35 at Cumberland Gap 0
  • Cocke Co. 8 at David Crockett 50
  • Grundy Co. 14 at DeKalb Co. 34
  • Centennial 35 at Dickson Co. 16
  • Hardin Valley 10 at Dobyns-Bennett 39
  • Franklin Road Academy 32 at Donelson Christian Academy 13
  • Greenfield 32 at Dresden 19
  • Northeast 14 at Dyer Co. 37
  • Houston Co. 35 at East Hickman Co. 9
  • Grainger 6 at Elizabethton 49
  • Baylor 14 at Ensworth 25
  • Sycamore 14 at Fairview 35
  • Kingsbury 8 at Fayette Ware 36
  • St. George’s 31 at First Assembly Christian 21
  • Loretto 8 at Forrest 41
  • Davidson Academy 28 at Friendship Christian 36
  • Humboldt 22 at Fulton Co. (KY) 40
  • Hillwood 4 at Gallatin 55
  • Olive Branch (MS) 28 at Germantown 16
  • Campbell Co. 23 at Gibbs 27
  • Union City 22 at Gibson Co. 24
  • Stratford 27 at Giles Co. 31
  • Hillsboro 54 at Glencliff 0
  • Scott 9 at GPittman 34
  • Middle Tennessee Christian 21 at Grace Baptist Academy 27
  • Notre Dame 31 at Grace Christian 27
  • Mount Juliet Christian Academy 43 at Grace Christian Academy 10
  • Oliver Springs 23 at Greenback 27
  • Austin-East 18 at Greeneville 39
  • Cloudland 32 at Hancock Co. 16
  • Jackson South Side 10 at Hardin Co. 35
  • Sunbright 19 at Harriman 27
  • Dyersburg 18 at Haywood 40
  • Lebanon 16 at Hendersonville 28 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • Sequoyah 23 at Hixson 32
  • Memphis Central 20 at Holmes Co. Central (MS) 26
  • Anderson Co. 34 at Howard Tech 19
  • Beech 47 at Hunters Lane 0
  • Franklin 13 at Independence 36
  • University School of Jackson 31 at Jackson Christian 13
  • East Robertson 25 at Jackson Co. 20
  • Lexington 15 at Jackson North Side 25
  • Unaka 19 at Jellico 34
  • Fulton 38 at Karns 22
  • Northview 8 at Kingston 32
  • Southwind 19 at Kirby 33
  • Harding Academy 14 at Lausanne Collegiate 45
  • Summertown 9 at Lewis Co. 33
  • Columbia Central 27 at Lincoln Co. 25
  • Goodpasture Christian 10 at Lipscomb Academy 38
  • Douglass [Frederick] 25 at Manassas 18
  • Marshall Co. 26 at Maplewood 19
  • Tyner Academy 35 at Marion Co. 13
  • Knox Catholic 10 at McCallie 35
  • Huntingdon 55 at McEwen 4
  • Halls 14 at McKenzie 36
  • Red Bank 44 at McMinn Central 9
  • William Blount 15 at McMinn Co. 32
  • South Gibson 25 at McNairy Central 24
  • Montgomery Bell Academy 9 at Memphis University 31
  • Freedom Prep Academy 36 at Middle College 15
  • Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 35 at Middleton 21
  • Bolivar Central 12 at Milan 39
  • Trezevant 18 at Millington Central 27
  • Fairley 24 at Mitchell 18
  • Pickett Co. 4 at Monterey 47
  • Creek Wood 25 at Montgomery Central 19
  • Fayetteville 30 at Moore Co. 17
  • Farragut 38 at Morristown West 12
  • Wilson Central 25 at Mount Juliet 17
  • Summit 38 at Nashville Overton 3
  • Lawrence Co. 10 at Nolensville 36
  • Sale Creek 21 at North Georgia (GA) 29
  • Chuckey-Doak 53 at North Greene 1
  • Evangelical Christian 42 at Northpoint Christian 0
  • Kenwood 19 at Northwest 23
  • Knoxville West 28 at Oak Ridge 18
  • Coalfield 45 at Oakdale 0
  • Bradley Central 31 at Ooltewah 20 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
  • Tellico Plains 30 at Polk Co. 16
  • Clinton 2 at Powell 50
  • Pearl-Cohn 68 at RePublic 0
  • Lenoir City 9 at Rhea Co. 40
  • Lookout Valley 16 at Richland 33
  • Memphis Overton 6 at Ridgeway 44
  • Obion Co. 18 at Ripley 33
  • Rockvale 3 at Riverdale 46
  • Hickman Co. 14 at Riverside 27
  • Meigs Co. 35 at Rockwood 6
  • Station Camp 10 at Rossview 33
  • Jefferson Co. 19 at Science Hill 29
  • East Ridge 19 at Sequatchie Co. 28
  • South-Doyle 41 at Sevier Co. 10
  • Coffee Co. Central 16 at Siegel 32
  • Loudon 29 at Signal Mountain 16
  • McGavock 9 at Smyrna 34
  • Huntland 8 at South Pittsburg 39
  • Whitehaven 29 at Southaven (MS) 17
  • Tullahoma 31 at Spring Hill 10
  • Briarcrest Christian 45 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 1
  • Harpeth 19 at Stewart Co. 28
  • LaVergne 16 at Stewarts Creek 36
  • Livingston Academy 41 at Stone Memorial 5
  • South Greene 37 at Sullivan North 13
  • Sullivan Central 15 at Sullivan South 42
  • Morristown East 8 at Tennessee 43
  • Fayette Academy 32 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 17
  • Westmoreland 12 at Trousdale Co. 29
  • Claiborne 17 at Unicoi Co. 34
  • Sullivan East 20 at Union Co. 32
  • Blackman 40 at Warren Co. 9
  • Midway 22 at Wartburg 31
  • Westwood 25 at Washington 19
  • Scotts Hill 9 at Waverly Central 43
  • King’s Academy 36 at Webb Bell Buckle 18
  • Gleason 8 at West Carroll 46
  • Portland 32 at West Creek 19
  • Johnson Co. 22 at West Greene 26
  • Walker Valley 28 at White Co. 24
  • Springfield 31 at White House 22
  • Greenbrier 11 at White House-Heritage 42
  • East Nashville 50 at Whites Creek 0
  • Copper Basin 27 at Whitwell 25
  • Craigmont 3 at Wooddale 44
  • Smith Co. 31 at York Institute 21

167 games this week, 145 of them in Region play. While there aren’t a ton of close games on the schedule, an unexpected Week 5 result can turn the season-long projections upside down. Next Tuesday, I’ll have a post that sort of checks how things are going midway through the season – who’s doing better than expected, who’s worse, and what regions have the most left up in the air. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.

  • Baylor (4-0, 1-0) at Ensworth (4-0, 1-0) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). It’s not exactly out of nowhere, but Ensworth has risen from a preseason fourth-place projection in II-AAA East to second, while Baylor has jumped from fifth to fourth. Considering only four teams from the two II-AAA regions make the playoffs, this game in particular has a ton at stake for both teams. Both are 4-0 and 1-0 in region play, but Baylor still has to play McCallie, Brentwood Academy, and Knoxville Catholic. Considering they’ll be underdogs in two of those three games, they really need a win to feel comfortable about their playoff status. Ensworth, meanwhile, is a double-digit favorite and this and the remainder of their first eight games.
  • Pope John Paul II (3-1, 0-1) at Christian Brothers (2-2, 0-1) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). A battle of two teams that are slightly better (PJP) or worse (Christian Brothers) than expected. Both lost their first II-AAA West games to better teams, and both really need a win to have playoff status confidence. Christian Brothers endured a tough 13-7 home loss to White Station last week, while PJP pulled off an excellent road win at Father Ryan.
  • Ravenwood (4-0, 2-0) at Brentwood (3-1, 1-0) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). The Battle of the Woods promises to be unusually special this year. Ravenwood has navigated a tough opening run with wins at Blackman and at home over Pulaski Academy; Brentwood has overachieved expectations a little bit with a road win over Cane Ridge, though last week’s loss at Henry County dampens expectations a little. The spread of Ravenwood by 13.6 points is the lowest remaining projected margin on their schedule; they have a 62% chance of a 10-0 season.
  • South Gibson (4-0, 1-0) at McNairy Central (3-1, 0-1) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Now this is not a game you’d expect to see! South Gibson was a projected mid-pack team in 3A-7 before the year, but a surprising 4-0 start with a pair of road wins has correctly changed expectations. McNairy, meanwhile, has mostly been what I expected: a 7-3ish team with a tough 57-49 road loss to a far-better-than-expected Westview. This is a massive swing game for 3A-7, as McNairy currently has just a 0.34-win margin on fifth-place Milan. For second-place South Gibson, this is an absolute must-win if they have hopes of keeping pace with 3A title contender Covington.
  • Knoxville West (4-0, 1-0) at Oak Ridge (2-2, 1-0) (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). After a turd of an 0-2 start, Oak Ridge has mostly returned to preseason expectations, smoking Campbell County and pulling off a surprising home win against Farragut. West, meanwhile, is a wrecking crew: they’ve beaten 6A squads Bearden, Farragut, and Jefferson County. If they were in 6A-1, they’d have locked up a playoff spot already with a 3-0 record. If West wins this, they should be able to start 7-0 before the Powell game in Week 8; an Oak Ridge win would completely erase the stench of the first two games and likely allow them to run out to a 4-0 start in 5A-3.
  • Honorable Mentions: Columbia Central at Lincoln County (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Marshall County at Maplewood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); White Station at Collierville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Olive Branch (MS) at Germantown (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Whitehaven at Southaven (MS) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Oliver Springs at Greenback (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link or below:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

Credit to The Daily Times.

Tennessee high school football projections, Week 4

Hello to Week 4! Week 3 was my system’s best week yet, coming in at 142-30 (82.6%) and three-ish games above expectation. That puts the system at 402-124 (76.4%) through three weeks, which is about two wins below where I’d like it to be, but is pretty darn close to the goal of 77% or better after Week 3.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Onward to Week 4. Last week looked pretty rough on paper, but 36 games out of 172 (20.9%) ended with an eight-point or lower margin. Some of the games were pretty good! There were even two games that ended with the exact same 42-41 score. (Thanks to White House-Heritage, Springfield, Adamsville, and Union City for their collective services.) This week is expected to be similar to last: not many very close games with a lot of likely blowouts. Favorites are expected to go 133-34 (79.7%), which is about 0.6% lower than last week. Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 3:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 59-42 (58.4%); 13-7 last week
  • 60-69%: 68-36 (65.4%); 18-13 last week
  • 70-79%: 55-30 (64.7%); 20-7 last week
  • 80-89%: 78-10 (88.6%); 32-0 last week
  • 90-100%: 141-7 (95.3%); 59-3 last week

Before we move on, there were four 90%+ upsets last week, all of which were pretty stunning: Boyd-Buchanan over Webb (3.6% odds of happening), Hunters Lane over Hillwood (1.7%); and Whitehaven over North Little Rock (AR) (1%). I kept double-checking to see if the Whitehaven numbers were a mistake and they weren’t; North Little Rock appears to have been massively overrated. Either way, all of these are in line with what you’d expect, minus the bizarre 70-79% underperformance. That’ll eventually regress to the mean.

Finally, on to this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

  • Maryville 24.9 at Alcoa 24.6 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 20 at Manassas 14

Friday

  • South-Doyle 34 at Anderson Co. 22
  • Fulton 27 at Austin-East 25
  • Memphis Central 26 at Bartlett 19
  • Franklin-Simpson (KY) 10 at Battle Ground Academy 39
  • Bradley Central 26 at Bearden 20
  • Jackson North Side 32 at Bolivar Central 18
  • St. Benedict at Auburndale 35 at Bolton 12
  • Whitehaven 18 at Brentwood Academy 28
  • Montgomery Bell Academy 15 at Briarcrest Christian 25
  • Wooddale 18 at Byhalia (MS) 27
  • Stone Memorial 14 at CAK 36
  • Seymour 14 at Campbell Co. 34
  • Lenoir City 18 at Carter 28
  • Huntland 32 at Cascade 17
  • Douglass [Frederick] 7 at Center Hill (MS) 37
  • Baylor 46 at Chattanooga Central 1
  • Morristown West 25 at Cherokee 33
  • White Station 16 at Christian Brothers 30
  • Unaka 10 at Claiborne 42
  • Sunbright 7 at Coalfield 37
  • GPittman 36 at Cocke Co. 22
  • Southaven (MS) 25 at Collierville 17
  • Loretto 28 at Collinwood 20
  • Nashville Overton 17 at Columbia Central 29
  • Cannon Co. 25 at Community 26
  • Lausanne Collegiate 22 at Cordova 31
  • Grace Christian Academy 5 at Cornersville 48
  • Brighton 14 at Covington 39
  • King Prep 17 at Craigmont 36
  • South Gibson 30 at Crockett Co. 20
  • Clay Co. 36 at Cumberland Co. 11
  • Columbia Academy 24 at Davidson Academy 34
  • McGavock 24 at Dickson Co. 17
  • Ripley 19 at Dyer Co. 35
  • Hardin Co. 25 at Dyersburg 30
  • Red Bank 27 at East Hamilton 17
  • Stewart Co. 28 at East Hickman Co. 22
  • Brainerd 0 at East Nashville 48
  • Daniel Boone 23 at Elizabethton 37
  • Christ Presbyterian Academy 6 at Ensworth 40
  • Pope John Paul II 22 at Father Ryan 23
  • Trinity Christian Academy 20 at Fayette Academy 31
  • Oakhaven 3 at First Assembly Christian 37
  • Summit 26 at Franklin 16
  • St. George’s 18 at Franklin Road Academy 35
  • South Fulton 45 at Fulton City (KY) 14
  • Sullivan South 23 at Gate City (VA) 29
  • Oakland 42 at Germantown 7
  • Sheffield 2 at Gibson Co. 39
  • Halls 37 at Gleason 18
  • RePublic 6 at Goodpasture Christian 48
  • Friendship Christian 35 at Grace Baptist Academy 12
  • Scott 19 at Grainger 25
  • Oneida 29 at Greenback 15
  • Portland 36 at Greenbrier 14
  • Bledsoe Co. 40 at Grundy Co. 6
  • Cloudland 20 at Hampton 27
  • Central 35 at Hardin Valley 9
  • Freedom Prep Academy 33 at Harding Academy 23
  • Creek Wood 37 at Harpeth 6
  • Liberty Tech Magnet 0 at Haywood 50
  • Beech 24.15 at Hendersonville 24.25
  • Brentwood 34 at Henry Co. 18
  • William Blount 39 at Heritage 16
  • Fairley 22 at Hernando (MS) 30
  • Nashville Christian 40 at Hillwood 17
  • Sequatchie Co. 39 at Hixson 12
  • Evangelical Christian 27 at Houston 23
  • Byrns [Jo] 0 at Houston Co. 38
  • Tyner Academy 29 at Howard Tech 17
  • White House 32 at Hunters Lane 15
  • Camden Central 19 at Huntingdon 37
  • Blackman 32 at Independence 24
  • Clarksville Academy 23 at Jackson Christian 26
  • Red Boiling Springs 8 at Jackson Co. 38
  • Peabody 38 at Jackson South Side 6
  • Powell 57 at Karns 3
  • Hillsboro 25 at Kenwood 15
  • Hillcrest 22 at KIPP Collegiate 16
  • Jefferson Co. 10 at Knoxville West 33
  • Adamsville 15 at Kossuth (MS) 28
  • Humboldt 0 at Lake Co. 64
  • Lebanon 28 at LaVergne 19
  • Warren Co. 18 at Lawrence Co. 28
  • Rossville Christian Academy 12 at Lee Academy (MS) 39
  • East Robertson 8 at Lewis Co. 42
  • Arlington 21 at Lewisburg (MS) 33
  • Spring Hill 14 at Lincoln Co. 32
  • Hayesville (NC) 22 at Lookout Valley 19
  • Glencliff 5 at Macon Co. 40
  • Pearl-Cohn 41 at Maplewood 12
  • South Pittsburg 37 at Marion Co. 11
  • Shelbyville Central 20 at Marshall Co. 28
  • Stellar Prep (CA) 0 at McCallie 51
  • Jellico 18 at McCreary Central (KY) 31
  • Chester Co. 3 at McNairy Central 44
  • Clinton 16 at Meigs Co. 36
  • Memphis Nighthawks 15 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 29
  • Kingsbury 17 at Memphis Overton 32
  • Melrose 0 at Memphis University 47
  • Greenfield 24 at Middle College 21
  • Donelson Christian Academy 30 at Middle Tennessee Christian 19
  • Cosby 13 at Midway 35
  • Lexington 18 at Milan 23
  • Northpoint Christian 14 at Millington Central 29
  • Harriman 12 at Monterey 34
  • Forrest 32 at Moore Co. 16
  • Gibbs 27 at Morristown East 22
  • Gallatin 23.5 at Mount Juliet 24.1
  • King’s Academy 23 at Mount Juliet Christian Academy 29
  • Fayetteville 20 at Mount Pleasant 28
  • Twin Springs (VA) 33 at North Greene 18
  • Rossview 26 at Northeast 21
  • Montgomery Central 22 at Northwest 28
  • Farragut 28 at Oak Ridge 21
  • Wartburg 46 at Oakdale 2
  • Northview 6 at Oliver Springs 36
  • McMinn Co. 22 at Ooltewah 27
  • Lipscomb Academy 15 at Page 27
  • Hickman Co. 37 at Perry Co. 7
  • Eagleville 49 at Pickett Co. 6
  • Sullivan Central 24 at Pigeon Forge 28
  • McMinn Central 27 at Polk Co. 19
  • Pulaski Academy (AR) 30 at Ravenwood 33 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV, also on something called Stadium?)
  • Mitchell 15 at Ridgeway 27
  • Clarksville 39 at Rockvale 11
  • Kingston 18 at Rockwood 20
  • Hancock Co. 23 at Rye Cove (VA) 24
  • Greeneville 33 at Science Hill 21 (7:00 PM ET, FOX 39 Tri-Cities)
  • Fayette Ware 26 at Scotts Hill 13
  • Loudon 45 at Sequoyah 7
  • Centennial 30 at Siegel 27
  • Riverdale 36 at Smyrna 12
  • Cleveland 26 at Soddy Daisy 24
  • West Greene 14 at South Greene 38
  • Munford 21 at Southwind 28
  • Springfield 34 at Station Camp 16
  • Cane Ridge 21 at Stewarts Creek 34
  • Chuckey-Doak 24 at Sullivan North 28
  • Richland 16 at Summertown 26
  • Copper Basin 20 at Tellico Plains 32
  • Gordonsville 6 at Trousdale Co. 37
  • Franklin Co. 16 at Tullahoma 27
  • Happy Valley 29 at Unicoi Co. 16
  • Washington 7 at Union City 39
  • Knoxville Halls 36 at Union Co. 15
  • Tipton-Rosemark Academy 10 at University School of Jackson 33
  • Livingston Academy 17 at Upperman 29
  • Tennessee 40 at Virginia (VA) 10
  • Sullivan East 25 at Volunteer 35
  • Middleton 17 at Walnut (MS) 45
  • DeKalb Co. 14 at Watertown 36
  • Fairview 32 at Waverly Central 28
  • Riverside 32 at Wayne Co. 17
  • David Crockett 34 at Webb 13
  • Dresden 24 at West Carroll 28
  • Cheatham Co. Central 20 at West Creek 30
  • Obion Co. 13 at Westview 42
  • Cookeville 34 at White Co. 18
  • Sycamore 15 at White House-Heritage 32
  • Westmoreland 29 at Whites Creek 14
  • Signal Mountain 25 at Whitwell 21
  • Antioch 0 at Wilson Central 45
  • Grace Christian 30 at York Institute 22
  • Sale Creek 13 at Zion Christian Academy 36

167 games this week, bringing us to 694 on the year, I believe. It looks like there’s only 21 region games, which makes last week feel like a little bit of a false start, but there’s a lot more of region play to come. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.

  • Maryville at Alcoa (Thursday, 7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV). This is the Game of the Year in East Tennessee, bar none. Alcoa shocked everyone last year by winning 34-28, their first win in this crosstown series since 2010. Alcoa hasn’t lost a game since September 8, 2017 to Maryville and is the clear 3A title favorite; Maryville has demolished three overwhelmed opponents to the tune of a 138-28 total score. I can’t wait to see this one.
  • Pulaski Academy (AR) at Ravenwood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV). This…..might be the lower-case game of the year in Middle Tennessee. Pulaski has one of the meanest offenses in the nation, averaging 50.3 points per game last year and winning a game 84-68 (!!!!!!!) already this season. You know who they are because they have The Coach That Never Punts. Ravenwood, meanwhile, survived a great test from Blackman 16-13 last week and has mostly looked like the serious 6A contender everyone expected them to be.
  • Whitehaven at Brentwood Academy (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Whitehaven pulled off a true Upset, but BA themselves got knocked off by McCallie at home, 28-23. The ratings still see BA as the better team, but Sonny Moore is massively down on Whitehaven for reasons I don’t quite get. I wouldn’t be surprised at all by another Whitehaven win.
  • Gallatin at Mount Juliet (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This game wasn’t on my radar at all to start the year, but it certainly is now. Gallatin is 3-0 after going 5-6 last year; they’ve yet to win a game by less than 21 points. Mount Juliet lost what initially looked like a stunner to Stewarts Creek in Week 1, but now looks like a quality loss to a team that has a very real shot at a 10-0 season. This isn’t a required win for either, but Mount Juliet really needs to reassert their case as a possible 6A contender.
  • Beech at Hendersonville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Normally, it’s hard to find a fifth game that stands out; there’s usually 2-4 great ones and then I pick the best-looking good game. Not the case this week! This rivalry is the first game of the entire season where I’ve had to go to the hundredths to see who was favored; the projection I first received was literally Beech 24.2, Hendersonville 24.2. That alone would make this a must-watch game, even if it wasn’t between two very good teams.
  • Honorable Mentions: Pope John Paul II at Father Ryan (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Evangelical Christian at Houston (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Blackman at Independence (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cleveland at Soddy-Daisy (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Shelbyville Central at Marshall County (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Farragut at Oak Ridge (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

A special Honorable Mention as a biased alumnus: Warren County won a must-win game over Rockvale last Friday, 36-35. It’s their first Region win since October 14, 2016, and I couldn’t be prouder. They’re tracking towards a three or four-win season, which sounds meager, but even 4-6 would be their best regular season record since 2007. Go Pioneers! Thanks to Bobby Rader for giving them a mention at around 12:20 AM ET on the Vol Network BYU postgame show.

If you’d like to view it, here’s this week’s spreadsheet. The season-long sheet is linked here.

Best of luck to all teams involved this week.

Tennessee high school football projections, Week 3

Week 3 has arrived! Last week went much better than Week 1 – a 140-36 (79.5%) record, a full eight games above expectation. Also, thank you to WCDT Radio in Winchester, TN and Will Rabb for having me on their Prep Football Insiders show last night – a great time. (I believe the podcast of the show will be uploaded sometime before the end of the weekend, though I don’t know for certain.)

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Now, on to this week’s games. Unfortunately, the system expects the weakest week of football yet – a 140-33 (80.8%) expected record for favorites, with 63 of the 173 games having a 90% favorite or greater. That’s 21 more than last week, along with having just 19 50-59% games. Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 2:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 46-35 (56.8%); 22-14 last week
  • 60-69%: 50-23 (68.5%); 30-9 last week
  • 70-79%: 35-23 (60.3%); 19-12 last week
  • 80-89%: 46-10 (82.1%); 26-2 last week
  • 90-100%: 82-4 (95.3%); 42-0 last week

Outside of the very randomly poor performance by 70-79% favorites, everything is at least within its expected range two weeks in. That’s good to see, and a tiny bit ahead of what I personally expected. Just like more 60-69% teams will lose games going forward, more 70-79% teams should win. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Tuesday

  • Sheffield 26 at Memphis Nighthawks 17 (this one happened already, obviously; the Memphis Nighthawks won 36-6. Whoops.)

Thursday

  • Morristown West 18 at Jefferson Co. 32 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Mitchell 20 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 11
  • Marshall Co. 22 at Tullahoma 19
  • Raleigh-Egypt 13 at Wooddale 29

Friday

  • Hixson 3 at Anderson Co. 55
  • LaVergne 32 at Antioch 17
  • Kingsbury 11 at Arlington 43
  • Kingston 11 at Austin-East 36
  • Memphis Overton 9 at Bartlett 39
  • Goodpasture Christian 8 at Battle Ground Academy 45
  • Dobyns-Bennett 30 at Bearden 17
  • Glencliff 0 at Beech 58
  • Covington 43 at Bolivar Central 7
  • Webb 40 at Boyd-Buchanan 10
  • Heritage 7 at Bradley Central 48
  • Dickson Co. 0 at Brentwood 49
  • McCallie 15 at Brentwood Academy 25
  • Clay Co. 29 at Byrns [Jo] 13
  • Oak Ridge 27 at Campbell Co. 26
  • Sequatchie Co. 32 at Cannon Co. 17
  • Southwind 19 at Center Hill (MS) 23
  • Sevier Co. 3 at Central 44
  • Whitwell 21 at Chattanooga Christian 29
  • Fairview 35 at Cheatham Co. Central 13
  • Champagnat Catholic (FL) 32 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 21
  • Johnson Co. 28 at Chuckey-Doak 23
  • West Greene 23 at Claiborne 27
  • Stewarts Creek 34 at Clarksville 19
  • Fayette Academy 32 at Clarksville Academy 22
  • Maryville 43 at Cleveland 8
  • South Greene 29.9 at Cocke Co. 30.2
  • Blackman 45 at Coffee Co. Central 4
  • Lewis Co. 39 at Community 12
  • Riverdale 36 at Cookeville 16
  • Sale Creek 17 at Copper Basin 33
  • Sullivan North 38 at Cosby 9
  • Greenbrier 8 at Creek Wood 42
  • Tennessee 24 at Daniel Boone 31
  • Stone Memorial 29 at DeKalb Co. 17
  • Friendship Christian 32 at Donelson Christian Academy 16
  • Lake Co. 45 at Dresden 13
  • Forrest 25 at Eagleville 27
  • East Ridge 17 at East Hamilton 23
  • Giles Co. 18 at East Nashville 41
  • Cascade 19 at East Robertson 30
  • Knox Catholic 21 at Ensworth 23
  • Harding Academy 7 at Evangelical Christian 44
  • Baylor 22 at Father Ryan 19
  • Huntland 21 at Fayetteville 24
  • Lincoln Co. 17 at Franklin Co. 32
  • Lipscomb Academy 14 at Franklin Road Academy 28
  • Powell 34 at Fulton 16
  • Hillsboro 25 at Gallatin 26
  • DeSoto Central (MS) 22 at Germantown 29
  • Pickett Co. 6 at Gordonsville 43
  • Sullivan South 22 at Grainger 30
  • Sunbright 8 at Greenback 44
  • Union Co. 5 at Greeneville 50
  • York Institute 36 at Grundy Co. 14
  • Gibson Co. 26 at Halls 21
  • Hampton 16 at Happy Valley 24
  • Science Hill 20 at Hardin Valley 26
  • Camden Central 34 at Harpeth 12
  • Coalfield 27 at Harriman 16
  • Dyer Co. 23 at Henry Co. 29
  • White Station 29 at Hernando (MS) 22
  • Waverly Central 32 at Hickman Co. 20
  • Hamilton 14 at Hillcrest 31
  • Hunters Lane 9 at Hillwood 46
  • Bolton 0 at Houston 59
  • Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 0 at Huntingdon 57
  • Centennial 27 at Independence 34
  • Hardin Co. 24 at Jackson North Side 27
  • Chester Co. 12 at Jackson South Side 32
  • Northeast 23 at Kenwood 17
  • Grace Christian Academy 19 at King’s Academy 42
  • Fairley 41 at KIPP Collegiate 3
  • Brighton 21 at Kirby 35
  • Clinton 14 at Knoxville Halls 38
  • Karns 2 at Knoxville West 53
  • First Assembly Christian 7 at Lausanne Collegiate 45
  • Mount Juliet 27 at Lebanon 14
  • Soddy Daisy 29 at Lenoir City 19
  • Lexington 25 at Liberty Tech Magnet 9
  • Cumberland Co. 0 at Livingston Academy 49
  • Brainerd 9 at Loudon 37
  • Lawrence Co. 16 at Maplewood 29
  • Polk Co. 19 at Marion Co. 25
  • Jellico 15 at McCreary Central (KY) 34
  • Perry Co. 17 at McEwen 34
  • Cane Ridge 33 at McGavock 18
  • Sweetwater 30 at McMinn Central 22
  • Cumberland Gap 0 at Meigs Co. 42
  • Freedom Prep Academy 35 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 12
  • Collierville 20 at Memphis Central 22
  • Zion Christian Academy 31 at Memphis Nighthawks 19
  • Christian Brothers 13 at Memphis University 30
  • Howard Tech 32 at Middle Tennessee Christian 17
  • Wayne Co. 40 at Middleton 22
  • Oakdale 0 at Midway 45
  • King Prep 8 at Millington Central 42
  • St. Benedict at Auburndale 3 at Montgomery Bell Academy 38
  • Cornersville 23 at Moore Co. 24
  • Cherokee 30 at Morristown East 29
  • Macon Co. 18 at Mount Juliet Christian Academy 23
  • Craigmont 13 at Munford 39
  • Davidson Academy 32 at Nashville Christian 28
  • Smyrna 21 at Nashville Overton 19
  • Unicoi Co. 43 at North Greene 9
  • Whitehaven 8 at North Little Rock (AR) 47
  • St. George’s 30 at Northpoint Christian 19
  • GPittman 37 at Northview 7
  • Middle College 28 at Oakhaven 13
  • Siegel 0 at Oakland 53
  • Dyersburg 42 at Obion Co. 12
  • Haywood 19 at Olive Branch (MS) 28
  • Shelbyville Central 23 at Page 27 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • McKenzie 7 at Peabody 42
  • Briarcrest Christian 20 at Pope John Paul II 27
  • Montgomery Central 28 at Portland 16
  • Franklin 5 at Ravenwood 40
  • Signal Mountain 7 at Red Bank 41
  • Monterey 46 at Red Boiling Springs 4
  • Mount Pleasant 33 at Richland 18
  • Crockett Co. 22 at Ripley 30
  • East Hickman Co. 12 at Riverside 34
  • Oliver Springs 22 at Rockwood 17
  • Wilson Central 25 at Rossview 17
  • Macon Road Baptist 42 at Rossville Christian Academy 12
  • Alcoa 52 at Scott 0
  • Houston Co. 23 at Scotts Hill 15
  • Chattanooga Central 35 at Sequoyah 18
  • Carter 19 at Seymour 21
  • Melrose 29 at Sheffield 9
  • Notre Dame 39 at Silverdale Academy 14
  • Greenfield 35 at South Fulton 18
  • Milan 22 at South Gibson 31
  • Cordova 19 at South Panola (MS) 32
  • Lookout Valley 0 at South Pittsburg 47
  • Gibbs 11 at South-Doyle 37
  • Nolensville 35 at Spring Hill 10
  • White House-Heritage 20 at Springfield 33
  • Hendersonville 38 at Station Camp 7
  • Pearl-Cohn 39 at Stratford 14
  • Elizabethton 45 at Sullivan East 11
  • Collinwood 10 at Summertown 28
  • Columbia Central 14 at Summit 36
  • Stewart Co. 19 at Sycamore 28
  • Hayesville (NC) 19 at Tellico Plains 24
  • Jackson Christian 25 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 20
  • Manassas 12 at Trezevant 28
  • University School of Jackson 28 at Trinity Christian Academy 17
  • Bledsoe Co. 17 at Tyner Academy 28
  • Hancock Co. 28 at Unaka 21
  • Adamsville 15 at Union City 27
  • Smith Co. 18 at Upperman 34
  • David Crockett 50 at Volunteer 7
  • Rhea Co. 34 at Walker Valley 15
  • Rockvale 22 at Warren Co. 24
  • Oneida 32 at Wartburg 14
  • Memphis East 21 at Washington 24
  • Trousdale Co. 31 at Watertown 18
  • Grace Baptist Academy 29 at Webb Bell Buckle 15
  • Humboldt 14 at West Carroll 41
  • Northwest 31 at West Creek 26
  • Ridgeway 0 at West Monroe (LA) 52
  • Jackson Co. 10 at Westmoreland 31
  • McNairy Central 32 at Westview 23
  • Memphis Business Academy 22 at Westwood 25
  • CAK 35 at White Co. 17
  • RePublic 16 at Whites Creek 32
  • Ooltewah 25.9 at William Blount 25.7

While this isn’t the most purely competitive week of football I’ve ever seen, it still looks fun. There are 145 Region games being played this week, and Week 3 kind of marks the real start of the season. This is when games take on actual playoff importance; your wins count for more and your losses hurt worse. Barring weather issues, 173 games will be played this week, bringing us to 528 total. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.

  1. Knoxville Catholic at Ensworth (Friday, 7:30 PM CT, NFHS Network). This one is an II-AAA East region battle, and one that could hold a lot of importance by year’s end. Ensworth demolished a solid Hillsboro team 48-7 last week, while Knox Catholic struggled with Fort Thomas Highlands (KY) for all four quarters before a late TD put them over the top. The winner here still has to deal with Brentwood Academy and McCallie at the top, but this would be an excellent win for either school. Speaking of which…
  2. McCallie at Brentwood Academy (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This one likely will end up deciding the II-AAA East regular season champion, but it’s also important for another reason: this is one of two games pre-playoffs where you can see two of the state’s five best teams play each other. (The other is next week, between Maryville and Alcoa.) BA has already soundly defeated a pair of out-of-state teams that would both be among the 25-30 best in Tennessee, while McCallie destroyed a Webb (Knoxville) team that is expected to win II-AA East. Both sides have several future D-1 players, including McCallie’s Jay Hardy, a likely future Tennessee defensive end.
  3. Collierville at Memphis Central (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Admittedly, it’s strange to feature a game between an 0-2 team in Central and a 2-0 Collierville team with a +2 point differential (29-28 and 25-24 wins!), but it’s two quality 6A teams with a lot of built-in anxiety. Collierville seems to desire winning by coin-flip every week; Memphis Central has disappointed to start the year and desperately needs this win.
  4. Briarcrest Christian at Pope John Paul II (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Yes, we have three private school games in the top four, but for good reason: they’re all really close. PJPII is favored by a touchdown, but these are two schools currently beating their preseason expectations with a very real chance to separate themselves from a four-team glob in the middle of the II-AAA West pack. (Memphis University reigns supreme, obviously.)
  5. Shelbyville Central at Page (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). I debated elevating something different here, but any neutral observer should be paying close attention to the insane 5A-5 race. Page is a 4.8-point favorite here, but the play is about the same as it was preseason: they’ve got to win this and at least 1-2 more coin-flips to go 10-0. Meanwhile, the top three teams in 5A-5 are separated by a projected 0.26 wins in region play. The winner here gets a leg up on everyone else.

Honorable mentions: Baylor at Father Ryan (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Haywood at Olive Branch (MS) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Ooltewah at William Blount (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Marshall Co. at Tullahoma (Thursday, 7:00 PM CT); Gallatin at Hillsboro (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Oak Ridge at Campbell Co. (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Forrest at Eagleville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Trousdale Co. at Watertown (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cornersville at Moore Co. (Friday, 7:00 PM CT).

If you’d like to view it, here’s this week’s spreadsheet. The season-long sheet is linked here.

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

Tennessee high school football projections, Week 2

Back for another week! Thank you to everyone who’s sent this out or has told someone they know about it or, in some way, is helping publicize these projections. Last week was, uh, far from ideal: a 120-58 (67.4%) hit rate looks okay on the surface until I tell you it was a full 13 games below expectation. On the plus side, last year’s Week 1 projections went very similarly (66.7%) and every week after was 75% or above. Week 1 is simply very hard to get right, and it is what it is. As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Now, let’s go to the games. This week’s expected projection W-L record is 132-44 (75%), which would be a solid recovery. Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 1:

  • 50-59% likely to win the game: 24-21 (53.3%)
  • 60-69%: 20-14 (58.8%)
  • 70-79%: 16-11 (59.3%)
  • 80-89%: 20-8 (71.4%)
  • 90-100%: 40-4 (90.9%)

As you can see, the coin-flip games were mostly coin flips, the slightly less coin-flip games were slightly-less coin flips…and then all of the games with fairly comfortable favorites went haywire. Poor Whitwell started out the week as a combined 45-point favorite in their two games and ended up 58 points in the hole, which sets a new record for projection error in one week. Community’s upset of Cornersville as a 42-point underdog also broke my database record for largest point spread upset, which seems significant.

This week promises to be just as fun. Week 2, though a little easier to project, still offers lots of uncertainty, with all but nine teams in the state having 48-minute sample sizes so far. There’s still a lot of variance both ways, which makes it very exciting…and also a little stressful for a projections guy. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

  • Manassas 2 at Byhalia (MS) 41
  • King’s Academy 13 at GPittman 41
  • Trezevant 33 at Hamilton 13
  • Chuckey-Doak 14 at Happy Valley 33
  • Sycamore 30 at Hunters Lane 13
  • Mitchell 29 at KIPP Collegiate 5
  • Lenoir City 21 at Loudon 29 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Sequoyah 5 at McMinn Co. 45
  • Middle College 23 at Memphis Business Academy 25
  • Cocke Co. 34 at Northview 20
  • Grainger 35 at Pigeon Forge 12
  • McNairy Central 39 at Tishomingo Co. (MS) 11
  • Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 18 at Westwood 25

Friday

  • Austin-East 8 at Alcoa 44
  • White Station 31 at Arlington 23
  • Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 6 at Bartlett 32
  • Chattanooga Christian 9 at Baylor 36
  • Henry Co. 22 at Beech 28
  • Ravenwood 30 at Blackman 22
  • East Ridge 21 at Bledsoe Co. 22
  • Freedom Prep Academy 41 at Bluff City 4
  • Kirby 39 at Bolivar Central 14
  • First Assembly Christian 29 at Bolton 17
  • Trinity Academy Tri-Cities 24 at Boyd-Buchanan 28
  • Howard Tech 24 at Brainerd 19
  • Wooddale 7 at Briarcrest Christian 37
  • Creek Wood 19 at Camden Central 27
  • Brentwood 33 at Cane Ridge 23
  • Warren Co. 30 at Cannon Co. 17
  • Campbell Co. 32 at Carter 15
  • Smyrna 23 at Centennial 30
  • Whites Creek 21.8 at Cheatham Co. Central 22.4
  • Independence 23 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 35
  • Hillcrest 0 at Christian Brothers 51
  • Clinton Co. (KY) 26 at Clay Co. 24
  • Hardin Valley 31 at Cleveland 19
  • CAK 28 at Clinton 25
  • South Greene 31 at Cloudland 21
  • Tullahoma 28 at Coffee Co. Central 14
  • Center Hill (MS) 16 at Collierville 24
  • Richland 25 at Collinwood 22
  • Moore Co. 20 at Community 31
  • Notre Dame 27 at Corbin (KY) 32
  • Bauxite (AR) 18 at Covington 35
  • Lake Co. 33 at Crockett Co. 22
  • White Co. 30 at Cumberland Co. 19
  • Thomas Walker (VA) 20 at Cumberland Gap 23
  • Greeneville 37 at Daniel Boone 23
  • Science Hill 21 at David Crockett 27 (7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV)
  • Columbia Central 24 at Dickson Co. 23
  • Oak Ridge 22 at Dobyns-Bennett 31
  • Webb Bell Buckle 13 at Donelson Christian Academy 32
  • Brighton 25 at Dyersburg 32
  • Cornersville 25 at Eagleville 26
  • Soddy Daisy 17 at East Hamilton 22
  • Fairview 42 at East Hickman Co. 10
  • Maplewood 16 at East Nashville 32
  • Hillsboro 18 at Ensworth 25
  • St. Benedict at Auburndale 7 at Evangelical Christian 40
  • Northeast 23 at F.J. Reitz (IN) 30
  • Douglass [Frederick] 13 at Fairley 37
  • Knoxville West 11 at Farragut 32
  • Battle Ground Academy 24 at Father Ryan 20
  • Northpoint Christian 18 at Fayette Ware 21
  • Portland 18 at Forrest 27
  • Riverdale 24 at Franklin 21
  • Stratford 18 at Franklin Road Academy 29
  • Middle Tennessee Christian 12 at Friendship Christian 41
  • Central 33 at Fulton 14
  • Gleason 34 at Fulton City (KY) 24
  • Station Camp 11 at Gallatin 36
  • Cordova 21 at Germantown 26
  • Hendersonville 33 at Giles Co. 25
  • Smith Co. 28 at Gordonsville 21
  • Mount Juliet Christian Academy 19 at Grace Baptist Academy 24
  • Clarksville Academy 41 at Grace Christian Academy 15
  • Northwest 32 at Greenbrier 24
  • Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 15 at Greenfield 30
  • South Pittsburg 46 at Grundy Co. 4
  • North Greene 19 at Hancock Co. 29
  • Adamsville 14 at Hardin Co. 28
  • Memphis Overton 18 at Harding Academy 35
  • Copper Basin 22 at Hayesville (NC) 23
  • Jackson North Side 15 at Haywood 39
  • Harpeth 19 at Hickman Co. 22
  • Perry Co. 6 at Houston Co. 38
  • Halls 34 at Humboldt 23
  • Byrns [Jo] 14 at Huntland 27
  • Southwind 27 at Independence (MS) 20
  • Chester Co. 19 at Jackson Christian 28
  • University School of Jackson 23 at Jackson South Side 18
  • Morristown East 17 at Jefferson Co. 33
  • Oakdale 22.3 at Jellico 21.9
  • Sullivan North 15 at Johnson Co. 31
  • Karns 17 at Knoxville Halls 43
  • Rossview 29 at LaVergne 20
  • Loretto 23 at Lawrence Co. 26
  • McGavock 18 at Lebanon 23
  • Riverside 22 at Lexington 13
  • Pope John Paul II 28 at Lipscomb Academy 17
  • Cookeville 25 at Livingston Academy 23
  • Monterey 23.7 at Lookout Valley 23.8
  • Fayette Academy 30 at Magnolia Heights (MS) 18
  • Lincoln Co. 13 at Marshall Co. 34
  • Bearden 4 at Maryville 40
  • Webb 3 at McCallie 40
  • Stewart Co. 23 at McEwen 29
  • Tellico Plains 28 at McMinn Central 21
  • Greenback 18 at Meigs Co. 33
  • Memphis East 10 at Melrose 33
  • Houston 24 at Memphis Central 23
  • Raleigh-Egypt 0 at Memphis University 51
  • Alcorn Central (MS) 26 at Middleton 35
  • Liberty Tech Magnet 11 at Milan 37
  • Munford 28 at Millington Central 22
  • Pearl-Cohn 23 at Montgomery Bell Academy 24
  • West Creek 16 at Montgomery Central 36
  • William Blount 24 at Morristown West 28
  • Goodpasture Christian 23 at Nashville Christian 28
  • Wilson Central 24 at Nashville Overton 15
  • Watertown 22 at Nolensville 29
  • Kingsbury 15 at Northside (MS) 35
  • Kenwood 0 at Oakland 53
  • Dyer Co. 34 at Obion Co. 17
  • Kingston 18 at Oliver Springs 24
  • York Institute 21 at Oneida 20
  • Red Bank 26 at Ooltewah 28
  • Siegel 15 at Page 34
  • Sheffield 0 at Peabody 51
  • Sunbright 24 at Pickett Co. 26
  • Silverdale Academy 22 at Polk Co. 21
  • Anderson Co. 23 at Powell 32
  • Hillwood 41 at RePublic 19
  • Tuscola (NC) 27 at Rhea Co. 20
  • Memphis Nighthawks 3 at Ripley 49
  • Franklin Co. 38 at Rockvale 8
  • Jackson Co. 26 at Sale Creek 18
  • Dresden 23 at Scotts Hill 25
  • Marion Co. 12 at Sequatchie Co. 36
  • Heritage 24 at Sevier Co. 31
  • Gibbs 23 at Seymour 20
  • Columbia Academy 16 at Shelbyville Central 32
  • Hixson 14 at Signal Mountain 33
  • Fulton Co. (KY) 32 at South Fulton 28
  • Grace Christian 16 at South-Doyle 37
  • Summit 35 at Spring Hill 9
  • Clarksville 31 at Springfield 25 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • Craigmont 18 at St. George’s 37
  • Antioch 0 at Stewarts Creek 48
  • Coalfield 22.1 at Stone Memorial 22.2
  • Cherokee 25 at Sullivan South 34
  • Rockwood 28 at Sweetwater 16
  • Rossville Christian Academy 5 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 44
  • South Gibson 25 at Trinity Christian Academy 24
  • Chattanooga Central 16 at Tyner Academy 34
  • Cosby 31 at Unaka 19
  • Hampton 19 at Unicoi Co. 28
  • King Prep 6 at Union City 45
  • Claiborne 20 at Union Co. 31
  • DeKalb Co. 3 at Upperman 43
  • Sullivan Central 24 at Volunteer 39
  • Bradley Central 37 at Walker Valley 14
  • Harriman 25.7 at Wartburg 25.9
  • Oakhaven 25 at Washington 14
  • Huntingdon 38 at Waverly Central 27
  • Summertown 21 at Wayne Co. 23
  • McKenzie 27 at West Carroll 21
  • Macon Co. 20 at Westmoreland 19
  • Gibson Co. 26 at Westview 28
  • Glencliff 9 at White House 42
  • East Robertson 22 at White House-Heritage 28
  • Ridgeway 10 at Whitehaven 42
  • Scott 23 at Whitley Co. (KY) 25
  • Fayetteville 27 at Zion Christian Academy 21

Saturday

  • Brentwood Academy 29 at Clearwater Academy International (FL) 22
  • Highlands (KY) 19 at Knox Catholic 34

This is one of the three or four best weeks of football all season; it looks like plenty of fun. Barring weather issues, 176 games will be played this week, bringing us to 355 total. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.

  1. Brentwood Academy at Clearwater Academy International (FL) (Saturday, 2:30 PM ET). This is the best team in the state of Tennessee traveling to play a Florida team that went 11-0 last year and outscored its opponents by 38 points per game. Clearwater starts seven different D-1 prospects, along with a few others on the fringe. I think BA is live-streaming the game, but I don’t know for certain. Anyway, it goes without saying that it would be a good thing for the best Tennessee team to defeat a top 15 Florida team.
  2. Pearl-Cohn at Montgomery Bell Academy (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Pearl-Cohn demolished what was expected to be a great Cane Ridge team; MBA, meanwhile, suffered a surprise loss at Brentwood. Starting 0-2 would be pretty shocking territory for MBA to be in these days, no?
  3. Ravenwood at Blackman (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Blackman started off well against Alcoa, leading 14-3 right before halftime. Unfortunately for the Blaze, most play the other 24 minutes of football games, where Alcoa went on a 20-0 run to grab a huge road win. Ravenwood smoked an overmatched Centennial team, and this is their first real test with a team many believe to be a top three contender for the 6A title. Both teams badly need this win.
  4. Houston at Memphis Central (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Houston took on a Southaven team they’ve normally had issues with and simply blew them out from start to finish. Central, on the other hand, suffered a brutal 13-12 loss to Cordova. Last week, I wrote that Houston really needed to win at least one of its first two; now, they’re in a position to sweep a tough two-week opening slate.
  5. Battle Ground Academy at Father Ryan (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Both enter at 1-0, with Father Ryan picking up an impressive win at Bowling Green last Saturday. This isn’t a Region game, but a II-AA win over a II-AAA team is always useful for bragging rights.

Honorable Mentions: Hillsboro at Ensworth (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cordova at Germantown (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Anderson Co. at Powell (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Highlands (KY) vs. Knoxville Catholic (Saturday, 5:30 PM ET); Riverdale at Franklin (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Brentwood at Cane Ridge (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Knoxville West at Farragut (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

If you’d like to view it, here’s this week’s spreadsheet. The season-long sheet is linked here.

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

2019 Tennessee high school football projections, Week 1

It’s here! Tennessee high school football is back for another season, as am I. You’re reading this on a new site, obviously. For the last two years, I’ve done these projections at an older personal site. Now, they will be transferred to this more professional site for my work in statistics and analytics.

A refresher, which I already put out in the season preview: The System™ produced excellent results in 2018 with a smaller, East Tennessee-only sample size in the regular season: a 279-54 (83.8%) likelihood of correctly calling the outcome of a game, well above the expected mark of ~77%. In the Tennessee state playoffs, which included all teams from Tennessee, not just those in my personal region, the ratings correctly predicted 177 of 221 games (80.1%), slightly above that same expected mark. On the whole, The System™ went 456-98 (82.3%) and correctly predicted the winner in 24 of 27 state semifinal/championship games. (Quick note: no, I don’t actually call it The System™.)

This year, there is an obvious difference: I’m including all 342 teams in regional play from the state of Tennessee. Every community from Memphis to Mountain City to Copperhill to Tiptonville will be covered, and I can’t wait to see how it unfolds. Obviously, this means a gigantic jump in sample size. Last year’s regular season projections relied upon a 333-game sample; this year’s will feature around 1,771, barring forfeits. Increasing the sample size by more than five-fold should give us even more reliability in how these projections turn out by year’s end, hopefully.

With all that said, you didn’t come here to read lots of precursory words on what I do. You came here for football projections. Four quick notes:

1. The projected scores are rounded to the nearest whole number. In events where the projected margin is under one point, they are rounded to the nearest tenth, then hundredth of a number if necessary.

2. Unlike the last two years where the winning team is listed first, I’ve listed the road and home teams with their projected score next to their names. It doesn’t look quite as pretty, I guess, but it makes more sense. Out-of-state teams have the appropriate state tag in parentheses.

3. Until regional play begins, the games are ordered alphabetically by the home team’s name. 

4. In the previous two years I’ve done this, Week One has been the least-successful projecting week by a significant distance. Take these projections with a grain of salt, because, like all preseason projections, they’re heavily based on what your team has done recently. The last two years, the system has called around 85% of winners from Week 5 onward.

Alright! Here’s the games. One last note: if they’re on TV, the relevant station and start time is in parentheses. For online broadcasts, it’s a guessing game, but a healthy amount of Knoxville-area games are on Diamond Clear Media, a few scattered games are on the NFHS Network, TNHighSchoolFootball.com is covering Lebanon-Gallatin, and there’s probably other sites I’m unfamiliar with. All East Tennessee games are at 7:30 PM ET unless listed otherwise; same for West and Middle Tennessee at 7 PM CT.

As one final reminder, you can view the preseason win projections here.

Wednesday

  • Whitwell 33 at East Ridge 16

(For those who don’t know, Whitwell has to play two games in Week 1 because the previous head coach made a bizarre scheduling error. You’ll see them again in this article under Saturday.)

Thursday

  • Harpeth 16 at Byrns [Jo] 23
  • Upperman 27 at Cookeville 23
  • Kingsbury 21 at Craigmont 29
  • Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 11 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 24
  • Wooddale 32 at Memphis Business Academy 14
  • Melrose 23 at Memphis Overton 21
  • Milan 17 at Peabody 34
  • Greeneville 37 at Powell 17 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT)
  • Rogers (AL) 34 at Richland 15
  • Tullahoma 21 at Shelbyville Central 25

Friday

  • Nolensville 36 at Antioch 10
  • Halls 8 at Arlington 47
  • Douglass [Frederick] 14 at Bartlett 34
  • Adamsville 14 at Biggersville (MS) 31
  • White Station 45 at Bolton 3
  • North Georgia (GA) 17 at Boyd-Buchanan 36
  • Farragut 32 at Bradley Central 16
  • Montgomery Bell Academy 29 at Brentwood 15
  • Raleigh-Egypt 21 at Brighton 27
  • Volunteer 21 at CAK 38
  • Waverly Central 32 at Camden Central 25
  • Cocke Co. 26 at Campbell Co. 35
  • Moore Co. 31 at Cascade 18
  • Cleveland 13 at Knoxville Central 37
  • McCallie 42 at Chattanooga Christian 1
  • Union Co. 28 at Cherokee 30
  • Fayette Ware 14 at Chester Co. 29
  • Bob Jones (AL) 24 at Christian Brothers 20
  • Pigeon Forge 24 at Claiborne 23
  • Rossview 23 at Clarksville 27
  • RePublic 15 at Clarksville Academy 36
  • Monroe Co. (KY) 28 at Clay Co. 24
  • Anderson Co. 42 at Clinton 16
  • Wartburg 14 at Coalfield 35
  • Southwind 18 at Collierville 26
  • Middleton 18 at Collinwood 38
  • Marshall Co. 21 at Columbia Academy 22
  • Spring Hill 21 at Columbia Central 28
  • Polk Co. 35 at Copper Basin 13
  • Community 4 at Cornersville 46
  • Hancock Co. 21 at Cosby 25
  • Dickson Co. 19 at Creek Wood 23 (7:30 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • Ooltewah 21 at David Crockett 30
  • Franklin Road Academy 26 at Davidson Academy 34
  • Tennessee 21 at Dobyns-Bennett 31 (7:30 PM ET, WCYB-TV CW affiliate)
  • Crockett Co. 29 at Dyer Co. 22
  • King Prep 3 at Dyersburg 54
  • Perry Co. 23 at East Hickman Co. 27
  • Forrest 26 at East Robertson 21
  • Portland 23.4 at Edmonson Co. (KY) 22.6
  • Trezevant 0 at Ensworth 42
  • Christ Presbyterian Academy 33 at Evangelical Christian 19
  • Manassas 5 at Fairley 40 (played at Freeman)
  • Page 24.9 at Fairview 25.1
  • Harding Academy 23 at Fayette Academy 34
  • Marion Co. 31 at Fayetteville 15
  • Jackson Christian 14 at First Assembly Christian 31
  • Brentwood Academy 37 at Florence (AL) 8
  • Coffee Co. Central 17 at Franklin Co. 30
  • Bolivar Central 27 at Freedom Prep Academy 24
  • Trousdale Co. 25 at Friendship Christian 22
  • Greenfield 44 at Fulton City (KY) 6
  • Gleason 15 at Fulton Co. (KY) 46
  • Lebanon 24 at Gallatin 21
  • KIPP Collegiate 0 at Germantown 51
  • Knoxville Halls 23 at Gibbs 25
  • Obion Co. 26 at Gibson Co. 20
  • Lipscomb Academy 44 at Glencliff 1
  • Mount Juliet Christian Academy 22 at Goodpasture Christian 29
  • Hampton 15 at Gatlinburg-Pittman 30
  • Cumberland Gap 11 at Grainger 33
  • Loudon 12 at Greenback 40
  • Bluff City 29 at H.W. Byers (MS) 17
  • Cloudland 20 at Happy Valley 24
  • Henry Co. 30 at Haywood 22
  • Oakland 42 at Hendersonville 7
  • Lenoir City 32 at Heritage 24
  • Cheatham Co. Central 27 at Hillwood 28
  • West Carroll 29 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 17
  • Southaven (MS) 24 at Houston 23
  • Stratford 28 at Howard Tech 17
  • Memphis East 28.2 at Humboldt 27.5
  • Eagleville 31 at Huntland 21
  • York Institute 41 at Jackson Co. 4
  • Beech 33 at Jackson North Side 18
  • Sevier Co. 20 at Jefferson Co. 28
  • Williamsburg (KY) 61 at Jellico 0
  • Sullivan East 16 at Johnson Co. 33
  • Walker Valley 29 at Karns 33
  • Hopkinsville (KY) 25 at Kenwood 9
  • Harriman 19 at Kingston 24
  • Hillcrest 2 at Kirby 47
  • Chuckey-Doak 0 at Knox Catholic 61
  • Union City 24 at Lake Co. 29
  • Rockvale 22 at LaVergne 28
  • Hickman Co. 21.2 at Lawrence Co. 21.1
  • Riverside 23.2 at Lewis Co. 23.1
  • Millington Central 17 at Liberty Tech Magnet 27
  • Giles Co. 28 at Lincoln Co. 32
  • Westmoreland 17 at Livingston Academy 25
  • Grace Baptist Academy 25 at Lookout Valley 20
  • Wayne Co. 26 at Loretto 27
  • Smith Co. 23 at Macon Co. 24
  • Briarcrest Christian 26.1 at Madison Academy (AL) 26
  • Lausanne Collegiate 29 at Mayfield (KY) 33
  • Houston Co. 27 at McEwen 19
  • Battle Ground Academy 34 at McGavock 11
  • Huntingdon 39 at McKenzie 18
  • McMinn Co. 44 at McMinn Central 3
  • Hardin Co. 21 at McNairy Central 27
  • Cordova 20 at Memphis Central 24
  • Sheffield 26 at Memphis Nighthawks 18
  • Ridgeway 8 at Memphis University 40
  • White House-Heritage 18 at Middle Tennessee Christian 34
  • Sale Creek 12 at Monterey 36
  • Sycamore 11 at Montgomery Central 32
  • Morristown East 18 at Morristown West 35
  • Summertown 14 at Mount Pleasant 28
  • Covington 33 at Munford 19
  • Unaka 26.2 at North Greene 26.4
  • Falkner (MS) 16 at Northpoint Christian 40
  • Hunters Lane 7 at Northwest 42
  • Chattanooga Central 17 at Notre Dame 39
  • Hardin Valley 18 at Oak Ridge 31
  • Whites Creek 23 at Oakhaven 18
  • Oliver Springs 19 at Oneida 20
  • Oakdale 20 at Pickett Co. 25
  • Nashville Overton 11 at Pope John Paul II 33
  • Tipton-Rosemark Academy 37 at Potts Camp (MS) 14
  • Centennial 13 at Ravenwood 45
  • Carter 15 at Rhea Co. 27
  • Jackson South Side 28 at Ripley 19
  • Northeast 23 at Riverdale 28
  • Midway 13 at Rockwood 28
  • Middle College 33 at Rossville Christian Academy 17
  • Elizabethton 21 at Science Hill 33
  • Cumberland Co. 10 at Scott 33
  • Walnut (MS) 22 at Scotts Hill 25
  • Tellico Plains 21 at Sequoyah 32
  • King’s Academy 18 at Seymour 33
  • Franklin 27 at Siegel 18
  • East Hamilton 17 at Signal Mountain 21
  • Donelson Christian Academy 14 at Silverdale Academy 30
  • East Nashville 25 at Smyrna 22
  • Red Bank 27 at Soddy Daisy 23
  • Lexington 15 at South Gibson 25
  • Senatobia (MS) 35 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 13
  • Trinity Christian Academy 21 at St. George’s 32
  • South Fulton 27.8 at Stewart Co. 28.1
  • Mount Juliet 40 at Stewarts Creek 8
  • Grace Christian (Knoxville) 24 at Stone Memorial 27
  • Sullivan North 26.8 at Sullivan Central 26.6
  • Daniel Boone 33 at Sullivan South 25
  • Independence 30 at Summit 22
  • Red Boiling Springs 18 at Sunbright 32
  • Meigs Co. 43 at Sweetwater 8
  • South Greene 23 at Unicoi Co. 30
  • DeKalb Co. 24 at Warren Co. 22
  • Gordonsville 13 at Watertown 38
  • Austin-East 26 at Webb 23
  • Greenbrier 30 at West Creek 28
  • Northview 29 at West Greene 16
  • Dresden 31 at Westview 29
  • Cannon Co. 29 at White Co. 21
  • Station Camp 26 at White House 20
  • Maryville 46 at William Blount 3
  • Springfield 26 at Wilson Central 22
  • Grace Christian Academy (Franklin) 26 at Zion Christian Academy 31

Saturday

  • Alcoa 24 at Blackman 27 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
  • Whitwell 37 at Bledsoe Co. 9
  • Baylor 39 at Brainerd 4
  • Bowling Green (KY) 21 at Father Ryan 24 (8:00 PM CT)
  • South-Doyle 18 at Fulton 33
  • Maplewood 21 at Hillsboro 27 (3:00 PM CT)
  • Bearden 25 at Knoxville West 16
  • Westwood 8 at Mitchell 31 (3:00 PM CT; played at Whitehaven)
  • Cane Ridge 32 at Pearl-Cohn 27 (5:30 PM CT)
  • Sequatchie Co. 18 at South Pittsburg 30
  • Hamilton 0 at Whitehaven 66

180 games in all! If I’ve missed one, please email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best ones, from my perspective:

  1. Alcoa at Blackman (Saturday, 7 PM ET). It’s one thing to have two of the ten best programs in the state match up; it’s even better when Alcoa is coming off of their best season in a decade and Blackman is expected to be a serious 6A contender.
  2. Southaven (MS) at Houston (Friday, 7 PM CT). Houston starts the year off with a brutal back-to-back of Southaven and Memphis Central; they really need a split of these to maintain state-wide relevance. Plus, while Southaven is a good team, they went 4-7 last year and lost to Germantown and Cordova by a combined 37 points.
  3. Lausanne at Mayfield (KY) (Friday, 7 PM CT). As for just about any out-of-state game, it’s not a true must-win game. However: it would be really painful for Lausanne fans to lose two straight games after a 38-game win streak. Mayfield is very, very good.
  4. Cane Ridge at Pearl-Cohn (Saturday, 5:30 PM CT). Surprisingly, these two have only played twice before, with Cane Ridge taking both games. This one is projected to be fairly high-scoring, and while it’s not a region game for either, both could really use a huge win to start the year.
  5. Page at Fairview (Friday, 7 PM CT). This has one of the lowest-projected spreads of the season (Fairview is favored by 0.2 points) and has a lot at stake. As mentioned in the preview, this is the only game Page is an underdog in all season; while they’d have to win around 3-4 more coin flip games to go undefeated (not likely, but certainly possible), the 10-0 opportunity starts here. For Fairview, it’s just as big: this is one of two games projected within double digits for them all season. Win this and the Waverly Central game in Week 4, and it could be their second 10-0 season in school history.

If you’d like to view it, here’s this week’s spreadsheet. The season-long sheet is linked here.

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

2019 Tennessee high school football preseason projections

Hello, and welcome to the new hosting site for my Tennessee High School Football Preseason Projections! Returning for my third season, The System™ produced excellent results in 2018 with a smaller, East Tennessee-only sample size in the regular season: a 279-54 (83.8%) likelihood of correctly calling the outcome of a game, well above the expected mark of ~77%. In the Tennessee state playoffs, which included all teams from Tennessee, not just those in my personal region, the ratings correctly predicted 177 of 221 games (80.1%), slightly above that same expected mark. On the whole, The System™ went 456-98 (82.3%) and correctly predicted the winner in 24 of 27 state semifinal/championship games. It was a good season; now comes the challenge of somehow topping that.

Even if that doesn’t happen and these projections regress to a mean of 77-78%, this still means they’re correctly projecting nearly four out of every five games played weekly in Tennessee. Considering Cal Preps/Max Preps’ ratings alone correctly projected 84% of winners over the last four regular season weeks + playoff action in 2018, the rate of correct projections could reasonably stay stable or even slightly rise. (Quick nerd note: anything above 75% correct is considered good; 80% or higher and you’re doing very well. 85%+ and I get hired by STATS LLC or something.)

Anyway, that’s too much precursory writing. If you clicked on this, you came for what the headline promises: statewide Tennessee high school football projections. For the first time since I’ve been doing this, all teams in the state of Tennessee are receiving full projections, not just East Tennessee. This covers 342 teams in region play in the state of Tennessee. While this does exclude a few non-region programs, this still gathers every program that can potentially play in the TSSAA playoffs this November/December.

In the below sheet, you’ll get the following to start with: a full sheet of projected records, win totals, and region records for all 342 teams, plus individualized team sheets. The team sheets feature schedule data and projections for each game. Throughout the season, these will be updated weekly and will still be available for viewing. Below are the official 2019 Preseason Win Projections for Tennessee High School Football, sorted by Class and Region:

Here’s the big, giant sheet, which is linked here as a finalized published version. At that link, you can access all 342 individual team sheets, with full game-by-game projections and season-long win totals. These will be updated weekly, even while I’m on a honeymoon in early October. (Don’t tell my fiance about that part.) While you can access season-long win projections on Massey Ratings (and, to some extent, Cal Preps), this is the first Tennessee-exclusive high school football analytics sheet that has existed, as far as I know.

After Week 1, all preseason projections will be frozen and available for viewing throughout the season on the 2019 Preseason Win Totals tab. They won’t change, but they’ll still be used on the 2019 Running Win Totals tab, which will be made available after Week 1. On that tab, you can keep track of how your team is overperforming or underperforming their preseason projections. It’s very nerdy, but also very useful to see (hypothetically) who’s coaching a team up well beyond their expectations.

As a reminder, here are the main features of the projection system:

  • Team ratings from diverse statistical sources. This year’s sources are Cal Preps/Max Preps, Massey Ratings, and Sonny Moore’s power ratings. All three use different methods to achieve their final rating, and all three are worthy, useful tools. The current plan is that, after this season, we should be closer to achieving a Stats By Will rating as well. To start the season, the ratings are weighted towards the more reactive Cal Preps system, as Massey and Sonny Moore are more retrodictive and use last year’s numbers heavily to start a season.
  • A small boost for home field advantage. Per a recent study, the average home team win rate in high school football is around 57%, which converts to almost exactly 2.5 points. Because there’s no objective way to measure home field advantage across high schools otherwise, this is the best we’ve got. So: if you’re at home, your projected margin is aided by 2.5 points.
  • A normal distribution system for win likelihood, similar to Bill Connelly’s S&P+. The official equation, if you use Excel, is NORMDIST((relevant cell), 0, 17, True). 17 is an unusually conservative deviation number, but because of the elevated level of variance in high school football, it’s necessary. That’s why even the best teams in the metrics don’t have a 99% chance of going undefeated.

Added features for 2019:

  • Project-A-Game. Nothing new to loyal followers, but this is my Single Game Projection Tool, now available for full season usage. You can project any game your heart desires at any location your heart desires.
  • Game Score Adjustments. This is a tool that takes a game’s Power Score (basically, the combined ratings of the two teams) and adjusts it for how close or how not-close a game is expected to be. If a game is projected within ~2.5 points – the margin of home field advantage – it can get as large as a 30-point boost. If a game is projected to be a 30+ point destruction…well, it can receive a 30-point demerit. This is also a useful way of getting 1A, 2A, etc. games higher in the weekly rankings, as those teams won’t rank as highly in statewide rating systems.

This should cover everything, at least prior to the week-by-week preview posts. If you have any questions, comments, corrections, etc., please email statsbywill@gmail.com.

On the next pages, you can find the following: