Welcome back! Last week was our bloodiest in some time: just a 127-36 (77.9%) record, making it the least-predictable week since Week 1. Finally, some serious upset action! This brings the projections to 1279-318 (80.1%) on the season and still 82.6% from Week 5 onward. It’s been a fun, strange season of high school football.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections – which are now just a week’s worth of projections – via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Because there are so many games to get to and discuss, I’m limiting Week 10 discussion to some brief hits. 37 of 163 (22.7%) games had a final margin of eight points or fewer, though 63 (38.7%) were certifiable 30+ point blowouts. Still: there were more good games than usual. The projections could’ve done a little better, but a 14-19 record in games decided by 7 points or fewer (expected record in these games was 23-10, though it typically redounds to .500ish) meant more upsets than normal. I’ll take it.

Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 10:

• 50-59% likely to win the game: 129-101 (56.1%); 13-12 last week
• 60-69%: 166-87 (65.6%); 13-7 last week
• 70-79%: 193-82 (70.2%); 22-13 last week
• 80-89%: 242-27 (90%); 20-2 last week
• 90-99%: 548-20 (96.5%); 59-2 last week

Outside of a relatively mediocre week for ~12 point favorites and another astounding one for ~18 point ones, these are still mostly performing to expectation. That’s a good sign for the reliability of the projections as they head into the playoffs.

Week 11’s games are below. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams. Here’s the difference this time: all playoff-relevant games will feature a short explainer of what different results may mean to the relevant class and region seeding. As such, this week is a little bit of a departure. Instead of an A-Z home team listing, games are listed from 1A-1 to 6A-8, with private classes after. (If nothing is listed after a game, feel free to assume that it has no effect on seeding.) The remaining non-region games will be listed last. Of the 55 regions in TSSAA football, 52 still have something to settle. Nearly every game this Friday will be important. Let’s talk about them.

Thursday

1A-8

• Washington 36 at Bluff City 4
  • If Washington wins: They are guaranteed to make the playoffs at 5-3 in 1A-8 thanks to their win over Westwood. Depending on how MASE/Memphis East shakes out, they will either finish as the 3 or 4 seed.
  • If Bluff City wins: Westwood has a 6% chance of defeating Middle College on the road; if they do, they are the 4 seed. In any other scenario, Washington still makes the playoffs as the 4 seed.
• Oakhaven 0 at Freedom Prep Academy 48
• Westwood 10 at Middle College 36
  • If Westwood wins: They make the playoffs as the 4 seed, regardless of other events.
  • If Middle College wins: Washington is the 1A-8 3/4 seed, regardless of other events.

2A-8

• KIPP Collegiate 6 at Douglass [Frederick] 36
  • If KIPP Collegiate wins AND Memphis Academy of Health and Sciences wins: Douglass is the 4 seed in 2A-8 instead of the 3.
  • All other scenarios: Douglass is the 3.
• Trezevant 7 at Mitchell 30

3A-8

• Wooddale 58 at King Prep 0

Non-region

• Oneida 25 at Coalfield 13 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)

Friday

1A-2

• Greenback 56 at Oakdale 0
• Midway 12 at Oliver Springs 35

1A-3

• South Pittsburg 43 at Copper Basin 8
  • If South Pittsburg wins: They are the 1A-3 winners; Copper Basin is the 2 seed.
  • If Copper Basin wins: They are the 1A-3 winners; South Pittsburg is the 2 seed.
• Lookout Valley 15 at Whitwell 34
  • If Lookout Valley wins: They are the 1A-3 4 seed.
  • If Whitwell wins: They are the 1A-3 4 seed.

1A-4

• Red Boiling Springs 2 at Clay Co. 48
  • If Red Boiling Springs wins: It’s obviously not likely, but in most scenarios, they’d be the 1A-4 4 seed unless Gordonsville AND Byrns [Jo] win their games. Clay Co. would fall to the 3 seed in most scenarios.
  • If Clay Co. wins: They are the 1A-4 2 seed.
• Monterey 32 at Gordonsville 14
  • If Monterey wins: They are the 1A-4 winners. Gordonsville gets the 1A-4 3 seed.
  • If Gordonsville wins: They are the 1A-4 winners. Monterey gets the 1A-4 2 seed.
• Byrns [Jo] 29 at Pickett Co. 14
  • If Byrns [Jo] wins: They make the playoffs as the 1A-4 4 seed.
  • If Pickett Co. wins AND Clay Co. wins: Pickett Co. makes the playoffs as the 1A-4 4 seed. In no other scenario do they make the playoffs.

1A-5

• Richland 18 at Huntland 31
  • If Richland wins: They make the playoffs as either the 3 seed (Mount Pleasant wins) or the 2 (Moore Co. wins). Huntland would fall from the 1 seed to the 4; Cornersville wins 1A-5.
  • If Huntland wins: They are the 1A-5 champions, regardless of other events.
• Moore Co. 20 at Mount Pleasant 31
  • If Moore Co. wins: They make the playoffs as the 1A-5 3 seed. If Richland also wins, Mount Pleasant doesn’t make the playoffs.
  • If Mount Pleasant wins: They make the playoffs as either the 2 (Richland wins) or 3 (Huntland wins) seed. Moore Co. is out.

1A-6

• McEwen 37 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 12
  • If McEwen wins: They are the 1A-6 2 seed. Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central is either the 3 (Wayne Co. wins) or 4 (Collinwood wins) seed.
  • If Hollow-Rock Bruceton Central wins: They are the 1A-6 2 seed. McEwen is the 3 seed.
• Middleton 28 at Perry Co. 31
• Collinwood 26 at Wayne Co. 23
  • If Collinwood wins: They make the playoffs as either the 3 (McEwen wins) or the 4 (Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central wins) seed. Wayne Co. is out.
  • If Wayne Co. wins: They make the playoffs as the 4 seed. Collinwood is out.

1A-7

• South Fulton 39 at Gleason 22
  • If South Fulton wins: They are the 1A-7 4 seed ONLY if Dredsen doesn’t beat Humboldt. Otherwise, they AND Gleason are out.
  • If Gleason wins: Out regardless. South Fulton, obviously, would be out.
• West Carroll 19 at Greenfield 26
  • If West Carroll wins: They are the 1A-7 2 seed. Greenfield would fall to the 3.
  • If Greenfield wins: They are the 1A-7 2 seed. West Carroll would fall to the 3.
• Dresden 38 at Humboldt 22
  • If Dresden wins: They are the 1A-7 4 seed, regardless of the results of other games. Humboldt would be out.
  • If Humboldt wins: It gets somewhat complicated. They’d have to root for Gleason to beat South Fulton to make the playoffs; otherwise, they’re out. Dresden would also be done.

1A-8

• Memphis East 23 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 21
  • If Memphis East wins: They are the 1A-8 2 seed. MASE would most likely be the 4 seed unless Bluff City beats Washington.
  • If MASE wins: They are the 1A-8 2 seed. Memphis East would be the 3.

2A-1

• Cosby 1 at Hampton 44
  • If Cosby wins: Hampton is the 2A-1 3 seed.
  • If Hampton wins: Hampton is at worst the 2A-1 2 seed; if South Greene beats Happy Valley, Hampton is the 2A-1 champion due to their tiebreaking win.
• Happy Valley 17 at South Greene 28
  • If Happy Valley wins: They are the 2A-1 champions, regardless of other events. South Greene would be the 2A-1 3 seed.
  • If South Greene wins: They would likely be the 2A-1 2 seed, but if Cosby stuns Hampton, they would win 2A-1.

2A-2

• Wartburg 3 at Meigs Co. 50
• Cumberland Gap 8 at Rockwood 27
  • If Cumberland Gap wins: They are the 2A-2 3 seed, Rockwood the 4.
  • If Rockwood wins: They are the 2A-2 3 seed, Cumberland Gap the 4.

2A-3

• Tellico Plains 13 at Bledsoe Co. 33
• Polk Co. 0 at Tyner Academy 46

2A-4

• Westmoreland 29 at Cascade 16
  • If Westmoreland wins: They are the 2A-4 4 seed no matter what.
  • If Cascade wins: They are the 2A-4 4 seed no matter what.
• Jackson Co. 0 at Trousdale Co. 46
  • If Jackson Co. wins: They can’t make the playoffs, but they can knock Trousdale Co. down to a 3 seed.
  • If Trousdale Co. wins AND East Robertson wins: They win 2A-4. Otherwise, they’re the 2 seed.
• East Robertson 14 at Watertown 38
  • If East Robertson wins: They are the 2A-4 2 seed. They win 2A-4 ONLY if Jackson Co. defeats Trousdale Co. Watertown falls to either a 2 or 3 seed depending on other events.
  • If Watertown wins: They win 2A-4. East Robertson is the 3 seed.

2A-5

• Loretto 17 at Eagleville 37
  • If Loretto wins: They are the 2A-5 4 seed. Eagleville is out of the playoffs.
  • If Eagleville wins: They are the 2A-5 3 seed; Loretto is out.
• Lewis Co. 19 at Forrest 30
  • If Lewis Co. wins: They win 2A-5; Forrest can fall no further than the 2 seed.
  • If Forrest wins: They win 2A-5; Lewis Co. could either be the 2 seed (either a Community win OR a Summertown/Eagleville combo) or the 3 (Summertown and Loretto win).
• Community 8 at Summertown 35
  • If Community wins: Summertown is the 2A-5 4 seed.
  • If Summertown wins: They are either the 2 seed (Forrest and Loretto win), the 3 (Lewis Co. and Loretto win), or the 4 (all other scenarios).

2A-6

• Hickman Co. 9 at Houston Co. 30
  • If Hickman Co. wins: They are the 2A-6 3 seed. Houston Co. is the 4.
  • If Houston Co. wins: They are at least the 2A-6 2 seed; they win 2A-6 outright if Riverside beats Waverly Central.
• East Hickman Co. 19 at Scotts Hill 25
• Riverside 23 at Waverly Central 31
  • If Riverside wins: They are at least the 2A-6 2 seed if Houston Co. also wins. If Hickman Co. wins, they’d be the 2A-6 champions. Waverly would either fall to the 2 seed with a Hickman Co. win or the 3 seed if Houston Co. wins.
  • If Waverly Central wins: They are the 2A-6 champions. Riverside is the 3 seed.

2A-7

• Union City 34 at Halls 15
  • If Union City wins: They are at least the 2A-7 3 seed and almost certainly the 2, assuming a Peabody win over Gibson Co.
  • If Halls wins: Union City is the 2A-7 4 seed.
• Adamsville 21 at McKenzie 22
  • If Adamsville wins: They make the 2A-7 playoffs and can rise as high as the 2 seed if Halls also wins. McKenzie misses the playoffs if Halls wins OR in a Union City/Gibson Co. combo. However, they can still make it as the 4 seed with a Peabody/Union City combo.
  • If McKenzie wins: They are in as either the 2 seed (Halls wins), the 3 (Peabody and Union City win), or the 4 (Union City and Gibson Co. win). Adamsville only makes it as the 4 seed with a Peabody/Union City combo.
• Gibson Co. 7 at Peabody 40
  • If Gibson Co. wins: They are the 2A-7 2 seed.
  • If Peabody wins: Nothing changes for them, but this result affects everyone else.

2A-8

• Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 12 at Fairley 30
  • If MAHS wins: They are the 2A-8 4 seed unless KIPP Collegiate wins on Thursday, then they’re the 3.
  • If Fairley wins: Nothing changes for them; MAHS is the 4 seed.
• Manassas 13 at Hillcrest 26

3A-1

• North Greene 18 at Claiborne 33
• Unicoi Co. 30 at Johnson Co. 18
  • If Unicoi Co. wins: They are the 3A-1 2 seed; Johnson Co. is the 3.
  • If Johnson Co. wins: They are the 3A-1 2 seed; Unicoi Co. is the 3.
• Chuckey-Doak 32 at West Greene 21

3A-2

• Northview 1 at Austin-East 46
• Kingston 13 at GPittman 31
  • If Kingston wins: They are the 3A-2 3 seed; GPittman is the 4.
  • If GPittman wins: They are the 3A-2 3 seed; Kingston is the 4.
• Scott 26 at Pigeon Forge 15

3A-3

• Brainerd 20 at McMinn Central 27
• Loudon 19 at Red Bank 32
  • If Loudon wins: They are the 3A-3 champions. Red Bank is the 2 seed.
  • If Red Bank wins: They are the 3A-3 champions. Loudon is the 2 seed.
• Signal Mountain 23 at Sweetwater 24
  • If Signal Mountain wins: They are the 3A-3 3 seed, Sweetwater the 4.
  • If Sweetwater wins: They are the 3A-3 3 seed, Signal Mountain the 4.

3A-4

• York Institute 21 at Cannon Co. 28
  • If York Institute wins: They are the 3A-4 4 seed; Cannon Co. is out.
  • If Cannon Co. wins: They are the 3A-4 4 seed; York Institute is out.
• Upperman 35 at Sequatchie Co. 13
  • If Upperman wins: They are the 3A-4 champions; Sequatchie Co. is the 3 seed.
  • If Sequatchie Co. wins: They are the 3A-4 champions; Upperman is the 2 seed.
• Grundy Co. 9 at Smith Co. 44
  • If Grundy Co. wins: Smith Co. falls to the 3 seed. I don’t think anything else is affected.
  • If Smith Co. wins: They are the 2 seed, regardless of other events.

3A-5

• RePublic 0 at East Nashville 57
  • If RePublic wins: Hell freezes over. Also, it could cause East Nashville to fall to the 4 seed if Giles Co. also pulls off a stunner. Any other result and they’re the 3 seed.
  • If East Nashville wins: 3A-5 3 seed.
• Giles Co. 12 at Pearl-Cohn 52
  • If Giles Co. wins: Paired with a RePublic stunner, it causes East Nashville to fall to the 4 seed. Any other event and East is the 3.
• Whites Creek 1 at Stratford 46

3A-6

• Stewart Co. 18 at Fairview 34
• Cheatham Co. Central 18 at Harpeth 24
• Camden Central 25 at Sycamore 21
  • If Camden Central wins: They are the 3A-6 2 seed, Sycamore the 3.
  • If Sycamore wins: They are the 3A-6 2 seed, Camden Central the 3.

3A-7

This one is wild because none of the four teams involved have a clear, precise rooting interest.

• South Gibson 43 at Bolivar Central 6
• Covington 27 at McNairy Central 23
  • If Covington wins: They make the 3A-7 playoffs and can be the 2 seed (Westview wins) or the 3 (Milan wins). McNairy Central makes it as the 4 seed if Westview wins, but misses the playoffs with a Milan win.
  • If McNairy Central wins: They are no worse than the 3 seed (Westview wins) and can be the 2 (Milan wins). Covington still makes it as the 4 seed with a Milan win, but is out with a Westview victory.
• Milan 28 at Westview 31
  • If Milan wins: Everything above applies to this game. Milan is no worse than the 3 seed (McNairy wins) and becomes the 2 with a Covington victory. Westview is either the 4 seed (Covington wins) or out entirely (McNairy wins).
  • If Westview wins: Same thing. They’re either the 3 seed (Covington wins) or the 2 (McNairy wins). Milan is the 4 seed with a McNairy win, but is out with a Covington victory.

3A-8

• Sheffield 11 at Raleigh-Egypt 29
  • If Sheffield wins: They are the 3A-8 3 seed, Raleigh-Egypt the 4.
  • If Raleigh-Egypt wins: They are the 3A-8 3 seed, Sheffield the 4.

4A-1

• Union Co. 20 at Grainger 32
  • If Union Co. wins: They are the 4A-1 4 seed. Grainger is out.
  • If Grainger wins: They are the 4A-1 4 seed. Union Co. is out.
• Elizabethton 53 at Sullivan Central 6
• Greeneville 54 at Sullivan East 2

4A-2

• Sequoyah 0 at Anderson Co. 65
• East Ridge 31 at Hixson 19
  • If East Ridge wins: They are the 4A-2 4 seed. Hixson would be out.
  • If Hixson wins: They are the 4A-2 4 seed. East Ridge would be out.
• East Hamilton 21 at Howard Tech 18
  • If East Hamilton wins: They are the 4A-2 2 seed, Howard Tech the 3.
  • If Howard Tech wins: They are the 4A-2 2 seed, East Hamilton the 3.

4A-3

• DeKalb Co. 41 at Cumberland Co. 4
  • If Cumberland Co. wins AND Macon Co. wins: DeKalb Co. falls to the 3 seed and Macon Co. wins 4A-3.
  • All other scenarios: Livingston Academy wins 4A-3, DeKalb is the 2 seed, Macon Co. the 3, Stone Memorial the 4.
• Livingston Academy 32 at Macon Co. 10
  • See above.

4A-4

• Spring Hill 19 at Lawrence Co. 25
• Nolensville 20 at Marshall Co. 24 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
  • If Nolensville wins: They win 4A-4. Marshall Co. finishes as the 2 seed.
  • If Marshall Co. wins: They win 4A-4. Nolensville finishes as the 2 seed.
• Maplewood 13 at Tullahoma 29
  • If Maplewood wins: They are the 4A-4 3 seed. Tullahoma would be the 4.
  • If Tullahoma wins: They are the 4A-4 3 seed. Maplewood would be the 4.

4A-5

• Springfield 20 at Creek Wood 30
  • If Springfield wins: They are the 4A-5 champions. Depending on the result of White House-Heritage/Montgomery Central, Creek Wood is either the 2 seed (WHH win) or the 3 (Montgomery win).
  • If Creek Wood wins: Same scenario – Creek Wood wins 4A-5, Springfield is either the 2 or the 3.
• White House 34 at Greenbrier 20
• White House-Heritage 22 at Montgomery Central 25
  • If White House-Heritage wins: They’re in the playoffs as the 3 seed. Montgomery Central would be staying at home for the postseason.
  • If Montgomery Central wins: This is kind of wild: Montgomery Central would be the 2 seed and would get a first-round home game. WHH would be out.

4A-6

• Jackson South Side 16 at Jackson North Side 30
  • If Jackson South Side wins: They are the 4A-6 3 seed. North Side would be the 4.
  • If Jackson North Side wins: They are the 4A-6 3 seed. South Side would be the 4.
• Chester Co. 0 at Lexington 39
• Hardin Co. 36 at Liberty Tech Magnet 9

4A-7

• Crockett Co. 35 at Dyersburg 19
  • If Crockett Co. wins: They’re the 4A-7 2 seed; Dyersburg is the 4.
  • If Dyersburg wins: Here’s a wild one: their seed depends on the Lake Co./Ripley game due to opponent records. If Lake Co. wins AND Dyersburg wins, they’re the 4 seed and Crockett stays the 2. If Ripley and Dyersburg win, Dyersburg jumps to a 3 seed as Crockett falls to the 4. Got that?
• Haywood 41 at Obion Co. 10

4A-8

• Craigmont 7 at Fayette Ware 38
  • If Craigmont wins: They’re in the playoffs regardless, to my knowledge, but this bumps them up to a 3 seed IF Bolton wins. If they don’t, they’re the 4 seed. Fayette Ware, most likely, finishes as a 2 seed, but would fall to a 4 if Bolton won.
  • If Fayette Ware wins: They’re at least the 2 seed no matter what. However, a Bolton win over Millington makes them 4A-8 champs. Craigmont is the 4 seed regardless.
• Bolton 5 at Millington Central 42
  • If Bolton wins: Bolton would lock themselves into a top 2 seed, and if Craigmont pulled a stunner, they’d win 4A-8. If not, they’re still the 2. Millington would fall to the 2 seed in the first scenario and the 3 in the second.
  • If Millington wins: They’re 4A-8 champions. Bolton would be the 3 seed.

5A-1

• Daniel Boone 35 at Cherokee 27
  • If Daniel Boone wins: They’re the 5A-1 2 seed. Cherokee is the 4. This also bumps David Crockett down to a 3 seed.
  • If Cherokee wins: Two scenarios, and we’ll start with the easiest one: David Crockett wins. This means Cherokee’s the 3 and Daniel Boone is the 4. Here’s the upset: Morristown East wins. Cherokee finishes as the 2 seed with a home game, Daniel Boone is a 3, Morristown East is in, and David Crockett is out entirely.
• Volunteer 34 at Cocke Co. 33
• Morristown East 11 at David Crockett 39
  • If Morristown West wins: They are in ONLY if Cherokee also wins. If that doesn’t happen, they’re out. 
  • If David Crockett wins: They’re in and are no worse than the 3 seed. A Cherokee win moves them up to a 2.

5A-2

• Sevier Co. 17 at Carter 28
• Central 29 at Gibbs 15
  • If Central wins: They lock themselves in as the 5A-2 2 seed behind South-Doyle. The easiest scenario here for Gibbs is that Knoxville Halls wins, which cements Gibbs as the 4 seed. If Seymour wins….well, even TSSAA has no idea – they’ve just got two question marks past South-Doyle and Central.
  • If Gibbs wins: They are in the playoffs, and if Seymour were to win, would rise as high as the 2 seed. Central can fall no further than the 3.
• Seymour 15 at Knoxville Halls 31
  • If Seymour wins: A Gibbs win combined with this means Seymour is in and Halls is out. A Central win and, again, it gets weird. I don’t know how that shakes out.
  • If Halls wins: They’re the 5A-2 3 seed and Seymour is out.

5A-3

• Karns 28 at Clinton 35
  • If Karns wins: Already it gets weird. Karns makes the playoffs as the 4 seed IF Knoxville West AND Oak Ridge win their games. This is a pretty likely scenario, but it requires a Karns upset to make it happen.
  • If Clinton wins: Karns is out and Fulton sneaks in as the 4 seed.
• Oak Ridge 34 at Fulton 17
  • If Oak Ridge wins: They’re locked in as the 5A-3 3 seed. As described above, Fulton would need a Clinton win to make the 5A playoffs.
  • If Fulton wins: They’re the 5A-3 3 seed. Oak Ridge would be the 4.
• Campbell Co. 3 at Knoxville West 44
  • If Campbell Co. wins: They make the playoffs only if Karns AND Oak Ridge win. All other scenarios mean their postseason demise.
  • If Knoxville West wins: Campbell Co. is out; West is already locked in as the 2 seed.

5A-4

• Walker Valley 16 at Soddy Daisy 33
  • This one’s simple: a Walker Valley win means they’re the 5A-4 2 seed, a Rhea County region title, and a Soddy Daisy 3 seed. A Soddy Daisy win means a Region championship, Rhea Co. as the 2 seed, and Walker Valley the 3.

5A-5

• Shelbyville Central 35 at Columbia Central 18
  • If Shelbyville Central wins: They’re the 5A-5 2 seed and Columbia Central the 4.
  • If Columbia Central wins: They’re either the 4 seed (if Summit wins) or the 3 (Lincoln Co. wins). Shelbyville is either the 2 (Summit wins) or the 3 (Lincoln Co. wins).
• Summit 34 at Lincoln Co. 13
  • If Summit wins: They’re in the playoffs and are the 3 seed. Also, they factor into the Shelbyville/Columbia game as seen above.
  • If Lincoln Co. wins: They need Columbia Central to win to make the playoffs as the 4 seed and bump Summit out of the playoffs. Otherwise, this is a meaningless-but-nice win. 
• Franklin Co. 7 at Page 40

5A-6

• Glencliff 0 at Gallatin 64
• Beech 49 at Hillwood 9
• Hillsboro 34 at Hunters Lane 12
  • If Hillsboro wins: They’re the 5A-6 3 seed. Hunters Lane would be the 4.
  • If Hunters Lane wins: They’re the 5A-6 3 seed. Hillsboro would be the 4.

5A-7

• West Creek 17 at Clarksville 40
  • If West Creek wins: They need a Dyer Co. win to make the playoffs. Otherwise, donezo.
• Kenwood 4 at Dyer Co. 38
  • If Dyer Co. wins: They only factor into this due to potentially helping West Creek sneak in. Otherwise, they’re locked into the 2 seed.
• Henry Co. 43 at Northwest 9

5A-8

• Ridgeway 29 at Kirby 26
  • If Ridgeway wins: Ridgeway literally can finish anywhere from 1st to 4th on Friday night, though a win keeps them from falling below the 3 seed. Southwind/Houston factors into this due to overall record; if Southwind pulls a surprise, Ridgeway is the 3 seed. If Houston and Munford win, Ridgeway is the 2 seed. If Kingsbury pulls off a stunner, Ridgeway is the 5A-8 champion. Also, Kirby is locked in as the 4 seed.
  • If Kirby wins: They’re the 5A-8 3 seed and Ridgeway the 4.
• Brighton 30 at Memphis Overton 22
• Kingsbury 2 at Munford 49
  • If Kingsbury wins: Unlikely, obviously, but this hands 5A-8 to Ridgeway and locks Munford in as the 3.
  • If Munford wins: They can finish either first or second. A Southwind/Ridgeway combo: 2 seed. Kirby wins: 2 seed. Houston/Ridgeway combo? 5A-8 champions.

6A-1

• Jefferson Co. 14 at Farragut 32
  • If Jefferson Co. wins: They can’t make it, but they can screw up the field a little. Here’s the combos that still allow Farragut to make it as the 4 seed: Bearden/Morristown West wins or Science Hill/Hardin Valley wins. A Bearden/Hardin Valley combo puts Farragut on the outside looking in.
  • If Farragut wins: They’re in, and can rise as high as the 2 seed if Bearden wins, but would likely finish as the 3.
• Hardin Valley 34 at Morristown West 14
  • If Hardin Valley wins: They become huge Patriots fans. They’re either the 3 seed (Jefferson Co./Science Hill win) or 4 (Jefferson Co./Bearden) just by virtue of a JeffCo win. Otherwise, a Farragut win keeps them out.
  • If Morristown West wins: I *think* it keeps Farragut in no matter what.
• Bearden 17 at Science Hill 28
  • If Bearden wins: They can finish as high as the 2 seed depending on a Jefferson Co. win. Regardless, they’d be in under any circumstance that isn’t a Jefferson Co./Hardin Valley combo.
  • If Science Hill wins: They win 6A-1. Depending on the results of the other two games, Hardin Valley (JeffCo/HVA combo) or Bearden (anything else) is in.

6A-2

• Ooltewah 26 at Cleveland 28
  • If Ooltewah wins: They’re in as the 4 seed, I think, unless I’ve missed something. Cleveland would be out.
  • If Cleveland wins: They become the biggest Lenoir City fans on the planet. Why? Because William Blount beat Cleveland and holds the tiebreaker. If Lenoir City wins, Cleveland is in. If WB wins, Cleveland is out.
• Heritage 0 at Maryville 66
• Bradley Central 23.27 at McMinn Co. 23.28
  • Look at that score! 
  • If Bradley Central wins: They’re locked in as the 6A-2 2 seed. McMinn Co. would fall to the 3.
  • If McMinn Co. wins: They’re locked in as the 6A-2 2 seed. Bradley Central would be the 3.

6A-3

• Cookeville 20 at Blackman 31
  • If Cookeville wins: They’re likely the 3 seed, Blackman the 4. However: if Coffee Co. also wins, Cookeville is the 2 and Blackman the 3.
  • If Blackman wins: They’re the 2 seed no matter what. Cookeville would be the 4.
• Warren Co. 0 at Oakland 51
• Coffee Co. Central 9 at Riverdale 41
  • If Coffee Co. Central wins: Riverdale falls to the 4 seed.
  • If Riverdale wins: They either finish as the 3 seed (Blackman wins) or the 4 (Cookeville wins). It may not be fun, but they probably should root for Blackman.
• Siegel 29 at Rockvale 19
  • The winner doesn’t go 0-10.

6A-4

• Mount Juliet 24 at Hendersonville 22
  • If Mount Juliet wins: They win 6A-4. Hendersonville can finish as the 2 seed (Rossview wins), the 3 (Lebanon AND Station Camp win), or the 4 (Lebanon AND Wilson Central win).
  • If Hendersonville wins: They win 6A-4. Mount Juliet is the 2 seed.
• Lebanon 24 at Rossview 18
  • If Lebanon wins: Well, here you go: they can finish as the 2 seed (Mount Juliet AND Station Camp win), the 3 (Mount Juliet AND Wilson Central win or Hendersonville AND Station Camp win), or the 4 (Hendersonville AND Wilson Central win).
  • If Rossview wins: They’re in the playoffs as the 4 seed. Lebanon is out.
• Wilson Central 32 at Station Camp 9
  • If Wilson Central wins: They either finish as the 2 seed (Mount Juliet AND Lebanon win) or the 3 (Hendersonville AND Lebanon win).
  • If Station Camp wins: Wilson Central is the 4 seed.

6A-5

• LaVergne 12 at Cane Ridge 44
  • If LaVergne wins: They’re in the playoffs as the 6A-5 4 seed only if McGavock loses.
• Nashville Overton 17 at McGavock 23
  • If Nashville Overton wins: McGavock is out of the playoffs and LaVergne is in.
  • If McGavock wins: They’re the 6A-5 4 seed.
• Stewarts Creek 30 at Smyrna 17
  • If Stewarts Creek wins: They’re the 6A-5 2 seed. Smyrna falls to the 3.
  • If Smyrna wins: They’re the 6A-5 2 seed. Stewarts Creek falls to the 3.

6A-6

• Brentwood 42 at Centennial 16
  • If Centennial wins: They’re the 6A-6 4 seed if they win and Franklin loses. All other scenarios result in them missing the 6A playoffs.
• Dickson Co. 5 at Franklin 34
  • If Dickson Co. wins: Franklin is still in the playoffs as long as Centennial doesn’t win.
  • If Franklin wins: 6A-6 4 seed.
• Independence 20 at Ravenwood 35
  • If Independence wins: They are the 6A-6 2 seed. Ravenwood finishes as the 3.
  • If Ravenwood wins: They are the 6A-6 2 seed. Independence finishes as the 3.

6A-7

• Bartlett 22 at Collierville 23
  • If Bartlett wins: They’re the 6A-7 2 seed. Collierville is the 4 seed.
  • If Collierville wins: They are either the 2 seed (Cordova wins) or the 3 seed (Arlington wins) depending on the Arlington/Cordova result. Likewise, Bartlett is either the 3 seed (Cordova wins) or the 4 (Arlington wins).
• Arlington 23 at Cordova 30
  • If Arlington wins: They’re the 6A-7 2 seed and Cordova is out of the playoffs.
  • If Cordova wins: My understanding is that they make the playoffs only with a Collierville win to pair with their own. Otherwise, Arlington is the 3 seed.

6A-8

• White Station 31 at Germantown 18
  • If White Station wins: 6A-8 2 seed, Germantown 4.
  • If Germantown wins: Still the 4 seed unless Memphis Central wins. Then they jump to the 3 seed.
• Memphis Central 13 at Whitehaven 33
  • If Memphis Central wins: They’re the 3 seed unless Germantown wins – then, out of nowhere, they win 6A-8. Whitehaven falls to the 2 seed.
  • If Whitehaven wins: They’re the 6A-8 champions. Memphis Central is the 3 seed.

II-A East

• Grace Baptist Academy 30 at Grace Christian Academy 22
  • If Grace Baptist wins: They’re in the playoffs regardless, but a win cements them as the East 6 seed. Grace Christian would stay the 8 seed.
  • If Grace Christian wins: They would be the 7 seed with a Webb School win to pair with their own; otherwise, they’re the 8 seed. Grace Baptist would be the 8 seed if Webb wins; if not, I believe they’re still the 6.
• Webb Bell Buckle 14 at Middle Tennessee Christian 36
  • If Webb Bell Buckle wins: They’re the East 6 seed. MTCS either finishes as the 4 seed (Grace Christian and DCA win) or the 5 (MJCA wins).
  • If Middle Tennessee Christian wins: They’re the East 4 seed. Webb would be the 7.
• Donelson Christian Academy 30 at Mount Juliet Christian Academy 14
  • If DCA wins: They’re the East 3 seed, regardless of any other event. MJCA would be the 5.
  • If MJCA wins: They’re the East 3 seed, regardless of any other event. DCA would fall to 4th.

II-A West

This one gets nutty quick. I can’t give you all of the scenarios possible here, because some of them lead to the bottom three seeds being a mystery. That’s the fun with large regions.

• University School of Jackson 34 at Clarksville Academy 13
  • If USJ wins: Win or lose, they’re locked into the West 3 seed. Clarksville Academy would be out, as they lost to Jackson Christian (the other 1-6 team).
  • If Clarksville Academy wins: It gets weird. In several scenarios, this cements Clarksville Academy as the West 7 seed. In others – especially ones dependent on the outcome of Fayette/Columbia – TSSAA offers no resolution. All I can tell you is that a win seems beneficial to their playoff outlook.
• Fayette Academy 25 at Columbia Academy 23
  • If Fayette Academy wins: It locks them in as the West 4 seed. Columbia Academy would be the 5. This result also factors into the lower-tier standings in ways that require more words than I have.
  • If Columbia Academy wins: They’re the West 4 seed and Fayette the 5. Simple enough.
• Jackson Christian 17 at Davidson Academy 43
  • If Jackson Christian wins: TSSAA offers no serious resolution on this, so whatever: I would imagine that they’re in as some seed. If USJ wins, period, they’re in. Davidson Academy is the West 2 seed no matter what happens.
  • If Davidson Academy wins: They’re the West 2 seed. Jackson Christian is 100% in as the 8 seed as long as USJ wins; if they don’t, I don’t know what happens.
• Nashville Christian 36 at Trinity Christian Academy 10
  • If Nashville Christian wins: Win or lose, they’re the II-A West champions. Dependent on the result of other games, this either locks Trinity in as the West 7 seed (any sort of USJ win) or tosses them into the Mystery Zone (Clarksville Academy wins).
  • If Trinity wins: They’re locked in as the West 6 seed. Nashville Christian, of course, is the 1 seed regardless of what happens.

II-AA East

• Webb 22 at CAK 27
  • If Webb wins: They’re the East 4 seed. CAK is the 5.
  • If CAK wins: They can finish no lower than the 4 seed, and that’s only if Grace Christian wins. If Boyd-Buchanan wins, they’re either the 3 seed (Chattanooga Christian wins) or the 2 (Silverdale wins). Webb would be the 5 seed.
• Boyd-Buchanan 24 at Grace Christian 30
  • If Boyd-Buchanan wins: They’re at least the East 2 seed if Chattanooga Christian also wins. If an upset happens and Silverdale wins, Boyd-Buchanan is the II-AA East champion. Grace could finish second (Silverdale/Webb combo), third (Silverdale/CAK combo OR Webb/Chattanooga Christian), or fourth (Chattanooga Christian/CAK).
  • If Grace Christian wins: They are the II-AA East champions. Boyd-Buchanan would be the 3 seed.
•  Chattanooga Christian 34 at Silverdale Academy 12
  • If Chattanooga Christian wins: They are the II-AA East champions. That’s right – three different teams are going into Friday night with the expectation that they can win this region at the end of the night. Cool! Silverdale would be the 6 seed.
  • If Silverdale wins: They’re the 6 seed no matter what, but this would knock Chattanooga Christian down to either a 3 seed (Webb wins) or a 4 (CAK wins).

II-AA Middle

• Christ Presbyterian Academy 26 at Franklin Road Academy 25
  • If CPA wins: They are II-AA Middle champions. FRA either finishes as the 2 seed (BGA wins) or the 3 (Lipscomb wins).
  • If FRA wins: They are II-AA Middle champions. CPA is the 2 seed.
• Battle Ground Academy 21 at Lipscomb Academy 22
  • If BGA wins: They are the II-AA Middle 3 seed. Lipscomb is the 4.
  • If Lipscomb wins: They are either the 3 seed (FRA wins) or the 2 (CPA wins). BGA, under either result, is the 4.

II-AA West

• First Assembly Christian 0 at Evangelical Christian 45
  • If FACS wins: They win II-AA West. ECS would be the 2 seed.
  • If ECS wins: They win II-AA West. FACS would finish as the 2 seed with a St. George’s win and the 3 seed if Lausanne wins.
• Northpoint Christian 23 at Harding Academy 25
  • If Northpoint wins: They’re the II-AA West 5 seed. Harding Academy would be the 6.
  • If Harding Academy wins: II-AA West 5 seed. Northpoint 6 seed.
• Lausanne Collegiate 38 at St. George’s 22
  • If Lausanne wins: They finish second in II-AA West. St. George’s would be the 4 seed.
  • If St. George’s wins: They finish third in II-AA West. Lausanne would be the 4 seed.

II-AAA East

This one is fun because of one specific circumstance. You’ll see it shortly.

• Baylor 21.1 at Brentwood Academy 20.8
  • If Baylor wins: They’re locked in as the II-AAA East 2 seed with any victory. Brentwood Academy still makes the playoffs as either the 3 seed (Father Ryan/McCallie wins) or the 4 seed (Father Ryan/Ensworth OR Knox Catholic/McCallie). However, under one very specific pairing of wins – Ensworth/Knox Catholic – they’re out, snapping their four-year title streak. If you’re a BA fan, you’ve got to be rooting like crazy for McCallie, right?
  • If Brentwood Academy wins: Safely in as the II-AAA East 2 seed. Baylor would be the 3.
• Father Ryan 10 at Knox Catholic 36
  • If Father Ryan wins: It ends Knox Catholic’s playoff hopes; under no set of other outcomes would they make it, to my knowledge.
  • If Knox Catholic wins: Happy outcomes first: they are the 3 seed if Baylor and McCallie win and the 4 seed if Baylor and Ensworth win. If Brentwood Academy defeats Baylor, Catholic is out, as they do not win a tiebreaker with Ensworth.
• Ensworth 12 at McCallie 26
  • If Ensworth wins: They’re in the playoffs as the 3 seed. McCallie is the II-AAA East champion, win or lose.
  • If McCallie wins: Again, they’re the 1 seed no matter what. However: it gets spicy fast for Ensworth. As long as any result other than a Baylor/Knox Catholic combo happens, they’re in as the II-AAA East 4 seed. If those two teams win, their season is over. Ensworth should be rooting for Brentwood Academy, even though their own team winning would be a disaster for BA.

II-AAA West

• Memphis University 20 at Briarcrest Christian 25
  • If MUS wins: They’re the II-AAA West champions. Briarcrest would be the 2 seed.
  • If Briarcrest wins: They’re the II-AAA West champions. MUS would either be the 2 seed (Christian Brothers wins) or the 3 (MBA wins).
• Christian Brothers 13 at Montgomery Bell Academy 26
  • If Christian Brothers wins: They’re the II-AAA West 3 seed. MBA would be the 4.
  • If MBA wins: They’re the II-AAA West 3 seed. Christian Brothers would be the 4.
• Pope John Paul II 38 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 11

Non-region

• Unaka 19 at Sunbright 32
• Fayetteville 38 at Sale Creek 7
• Cloudland 22 at Sullivan North 27
• Melrose 40 at Hamilton 4
• Dobyns-Bennett 25 at Alcoa 28
• Friendship Christian 30 at Stone Memorial 19
• Lake Co. 36 at Ripley 21
• Sullivan South 14 at Tennessee 39
• Powell 27 at South-Doyle 23
• William Blount 36 at Lenoir City 16
• Marion Co. 2 at Rhea Co. 44
• Northeast 38 at Antioch 10
• Southwind 11 at Houston 38
• Jellico 8 at Berea (KY) 42
• Goodpasture Christian 27 at White Co. 28
• Cornersville 30 at Zion Christian Academy 18

Alright! That’s over 5,600 words to this point on 168 total football games. I don’t know if you need any additional analysis. Over the course of the season, this has traditionally been the space where I talk about five or so games that stand out. Let’s make it different: here’s a list of every game where a Region title and at least two rounds, if not more, of home field advantage is at stake. All of the following games are being played Friday night at either 7:30 ET for Eastern Time Zone teams or 7:00 CT for Central Time Zone teams.

• South Pittsburg at Copper Basin (1A-3)
• Monterey at Gordonsville (1A-4)
• Cosby at Hampton (2A-1)
• Happy Valley at South Greene (2A-1)
• Jackson Co. at Trousdale Co. (2A-4)
• East Robertson at Watertown (2A-4)
• Lewis Co. at Forrest (2A-5)
• Hickman Co. at Houston Co. (2A-6)
• Riverside at Waverly Central (2A-6)
• Loudon at Red Bank (3A-3)
• Upperman at Sequatchie Co. (3A-4)
• DeKalb Co. at Cumberland Co. (4A-3)
• Livingston Academy at Macon Co. (4A-3)
• Nolensville at Marshall Co. (4A-4)
• Springfield at Creek Wood (4A-5)
• Craigmont at Fayette Ware (4A-8)
• Bolton at Millington Central (4A-8)
• Walker Valley at Soddy Daisy (5A-4)
• Ridgeway at Kirby (5A-8)
• Kingsbury at Munford (5A-8)
• Bearden at Science Hill (6A-1)
• Mount Juliet at Hendersonville (6A-4)
• Memphis Central at Whitehaven (6A-8)
• Boyd-Buchanan at Grace Christian (II-AA East)
• Chattanooga Christian at Silverdale Academy (II-AA East)
• Christ Presbyterian Academy at Franklin Road Academy (II-AA Middle)
• First Assembly Christian at Evangelical Christian (II-AA West)
• Memphis University at Briarcrest Christian (II-AAA West)

Collectively, these are the Games of the Week. You can view their projections above, of course, but also either at this link or right here:

Best of luck to all teams involved in the madness this week! I expect my initial 2019 TSSAA Playoff Projections to be up by next Wednesday, with a full slate of first-round projections out Friday morning. Thanks for reading.

Nine weeks down, just two weeks to go! The playoffs are almost here, and a lot of playoff spots will be claimed this week. Last week, these projections went 116-27 (81.1%), bringing them to 1152-282 (80.3%) on the season. From Week 5 onward, these projections have gone 619-121 (83.7%). It certainly could be worse.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Again, last week’s sample was slightly smaller than usual (143 games compared to the typical 160+), but it was a little disappointing nonetheless in terms of quality play. 27 of 143 (18.9%) games finished with a single-digit margin, while over double that number – 58 (40.6%) – finished with 30+ point margins. The Game of the Week was obviously Knoxville West/Powell, a game that ended regulation at 14-14 and finished with Powell stuffing a West two-point attempt to win 21-20.

This week, in theory, should be better. Favorites are expected to go 131.1-32.9 (79.9%), which is lower than the last several weeks. Perhaps it’s because so many quality Region games are saved for the end of the year.

Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 9:

• 50-59% likely to win the game: 116-89 (56.6%); 5-10 last week
• 60-69%: 153-80 (65.7%); 12-8 last week
• 70-79%: 171-69 (71.3%); 20-5 last week
• 80-89%: 222-25 (89.9%); 19-2 last week
• 90-99%: 489-18 (96.5%); 60-2 last week

Two large upsets did happen: Northview (previously 0-8) over Scott as a 29-point underdog, along with Franklin County defeating Lipscomb Academy as a 29-point underdog. They aren’t the biggest of the year, but both were fairly remarkable. Outside of that, the biggest miss on a game was actually on a correct projection: Middle College, projected to defeat Memphis East by two points, won by 48. Week 9 delivered the second-best Absolute Error (the margin I’m off the projected score by) of the season: 12.29, just missing Week 6’s 12.19. The projections are getting better and better; my goal is to keep this number below 13 the rest of the way.

Here are Week 10’s scheduled games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Monday

• King Prep 4 at Raleigh-Egypt 44 (NOTE: It appears King Prep forfeited this game, so it goes to the books as Raleigh-Egypt 1, King Prep 0.)

Tuesday

• Craigmont 26 at Bolton 24 (Actual score: Bolton 6, Craigmont 0.) 

Thursday

• Gallatin 27 at Beech 24
• Tyner Academy 35 at Brainerd 11
• Lewis Co. 27 at Camden Central 22
• Clarksville Academy 16 at Columbia Academy 30
• Rockvale 7 at Cookeville 41
• Sheffield 0 at Covington 56
• Anderson Co. 29 at East Hamilton 19
• Howard Tech 25 at East Ridge 19
• Whitwell 4 at Fayetteville 44
• Shelbyville Central 40 at Franklin Co. 10
• Tullahoma 29 at Giles Co. 25
• Dresden 39 at Gleason 20
• Lake Co. 38 at Greenfield 14
• Sequatchie Co. 38 at Grundy Co. 12
• Jackson South Side 6 at Haywood 41
• Northeast 6 at Henry Co. 44
• Middleton 0 at Huntingdon 71
• Cornersville 23 at Huntland 23.3
• Pigeon Forge 6 at Kingston 36
• Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 26 at KIPP Collegiate 6
• Smyrna 23 at LaVergne 25
• McNairy Central 20 at Lexington 17
• Page 37 at Lincoln Co. 12
• Hickman Co. 21 at Loretto 24
• Silverdale Academy 25 at Marion Co. 21
• Kirby 41 at Memphis Overton 12
• Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 14 at Middle College 29
• Hamilton 0 at Mitchell 42
• Station Camp 0 at Mount Juliet 44
• Clarksville 36 at Northwest 20
• Oak Ridge 16 at Powell 35 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
• Craigmont 17 at Raleigh-Egypt 29
• Bradley Central 30 at Soddy Daisy 17
• Kingsbury 0 at Southwind 51
• Battle Ground Academy 34 at Spring Hill 12
• Nashville Overton 3 at Stewarts Creek 42
• Crockett Co. 19 at University School of Jackson 26
• Watertown 20 at Upperman 32
• Loudon 34 at Walker Valley 17
• Lebanon 22 at Wilson Central 18

Friday

• Riverside 22 at Adamsville 17
• GPittman 12 at Alcoa 37
• Copper Basin 25 at Andrews (NC) 26
• McGavock 34 at Antioch 10
• Collierville 31 at Arlington 20
• King Prep 0 at Bartlett 67
• Montgomery Bell Academy 17 at Baylor 21
• Morristown West 11 at Bearden 36
• Siegel 10 at Blackman 41
• Westwood 32 at Bluff City 8
• Notre Dame 21 at Boyd-Buchanan 37
• Knox Catholic 21 at Brentwood 31
• Ensworth 19 at Brentwood Academy 20 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
• Manassas 0 at Briarcrest Christian 60
• Ridgeway 36 at Brighton 17
• Gordonsville 22 at Byrns [Jo] 18
• Forrest 40 at Cascade 8
• Pope John Paul II 33 at Centennial 23
• Hixson 24 at Chattanooga Central 29
• Webb 21 at Chattanooga Christian 25
• Sycamore 28 at Cheatham Co. Central 14
• Bolivar Central 32 at Chester Co. 16
• Wooddale 16 at Christian Brothers 27
• Campbell Co. 29 at Clinton 25
• Oakland 49 at Coffee Co. Central 0
• McEwen 38 at Community 15
• Jellico 17 at Cosby 32
• Bledsoe Co. 35 at Cumberland Co. 8
• Claiborne 15 at Cumberland Gap 28
• David Crockett 34 at Daniel Boone 20 (7:00 PM ET, Tri-Cities CW)
• Science Hill 11 at Dobyns-Bennett 40
• Grace Christian Academy 5 at Donelson Christian Academy 48
• Trezevant 17 at Douglass [Frederick] 29
• Zion Christian Academy 27 at East Hickman Co. 23
• Harpeth 13 at East Robertson 33
• Sullivan South 13 at Elizabethton 44
• Hillcrest 8 at Fairley 38
• Dickson Co. 14 at Fairview 33
• Lipscomb Academy 25 at Father Ryan 15
• Davidson Academy 34 at Fayette Academy 32
• First Assembly Christian 20.8 at Fayette Ware 20.5
• Nolensville 26 at Franklin 16
• Memphis East 9 at Freedom Prep Academy 42
• Knoxville West 37 at Fulton 8
• Carter 16 at Gibbs 26
• Fulton City (KY) 0 at Gibson Co. 56
• East Nashville 39 at Goodpasture Christian 14
• CAK 19 at Grace Christian 34
• Midway 9 at Greenback 43
• Grainger 10 at Greeneville 45
• Unaka 0 at Hampton 53
• West Greene 33 at Hancock Co. 14
• Trinity Academy Tri-Cities 23 at Happy Valley 20
• Milan 23 at Hardin Co. 28
• Farragut 30 at Hardin Valley 16
• St. Benedict at Auburndale 32 at Harding Academy 21
• Oakdale 5 at Harriman 36
• Ooltewah 46 at Heritage 10
• Hillwood 14 at Hillsboro 45
• Collinwood 23 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 21
• Cordova 13 at Houston 37
• Scotts Hill 31 at Humboldt 21
• Pearl-Cohn 36 at Independence 23
• Trinity Christian Academy 22 at Jackson Christian 24
• Cloudland 19 at Johnson Co. 29
• Rhea Co. 41 at Karns 17
• Jackson North Side 28 at Kenwood 14
• Grace Baptist Academy 11 at King’s Academy 41
• Summertown 19 at Lawrence Co. 20
• Dyersburg 29 at Liberty Tech Magnet 22
• McMinn Co. 12 at Maryville 34
• Clearwater Academy International (FL) 20 at McCallie 29
• Obion Co. 17 at McKenzie 32
• Polk Co. 0 at Meigs Co. 51 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
• Memphis Central 30 at Melrose 10
• Oakhaven 20 at Memphis Business Academy 22
• Memphis Nighthawks 20 at Halls 29
• White Station 14 at Memphis University 33
• Mount Juliet Christian Academy 22 at Middle Tennessee Christian 27
• Clay Co. 18 at Monterey 30
• Eagleville 29 at Mount Pleasant 26
• Evangelical Christian 32 at Munford 17
• Tipton-Rosemark Academy 6 at Nashville Christian 38
• Lausanne Collegiate 38 at Northpoint Christian 12
• Coalfield 17 at Oliver Springs 25 (7:30 PM ET, BBB-TV)
• Washington 0 at Peabody 49
• Wayne Co. 32 at Perry Co. 20
• Creek Wood 27 at Portland 16
• Cane Ridge 22 at Ravenwood 33
• Pickett Co. 29 at Red Boiling Springs 23
• Todd Co. Central (KY) 31 at RePublic 20
• Moore Co. 30 at Richland 21
• Millington Central 25 at Ripley 26
• Warren Co. 12 at Riverdale 38
• Hendersonville 29 at Rossview 17
• South Pittsburg 48 at Sale Creek 0
• Knoxville Halls 33 at Sevier Co. 18
• Lenoir City 12 at Seymour 34
• Stone Memorial 16 at Smith Co. 36
• West Carroll 29 at South Fulton 24
• Franklin Road Academy 20 at South Gibson 29
• Central 24 at South-Doyle 23
• Greenbrier 17 at Springfield 39
• Bolton 11 at St. George’s 42
• Houston Co. 24 at Stewart Co. 20
• Columbia Central 18 at Stratford 32
• Sullivan North 32 at Sullivan East 19
• Sweetwater 35 at Tellico Plains 16
• Cherokee 16 at Tennessee 41
• Volunteer 25 at Unicoi Co. 34
• Sullivan Central 25 at Union Co. 31
• Sunbright 16 at Wartburg 37
• Westview 35 at Waverly Central 29
• Friendship Christian 48 at Webb Bell Buckle 1
• Dyer Co. 41 at West Creek 15
• White House-Heritage 24 at Westmoreland 21
• Macon Co. 19 at White Co. 25
• Montgomery Central 31 at White House 17
• Germantown 10 at Whitehaven 40
• Hunters Lane 26 at Whites Creek 19
• Cleveland 32 at William Blount 21
• Livingston Academy 41 at York Institute 5

164 games in all, if they’re all played. 88 of them are Region games. Here are the five best, from my perspective.

• Gallatin (8-0, 3-0) at Beech (8-0, 3-0) (Thursday, 7:00 PM CT). This is the Game of the Week in Tennessee as far as I can tell. I talked about both of these teams last week, and nothing’s changed since: Gallatin beat Hendersonville 27-8 as an 18-point favorite, while Beech defeated Station Camp by 48 (54-point favorite). This not only decides the 5A-6 race, but it also decides the following: who gets home field advantage for the first two rounds, who would host a theoretical rematch in the quarterfinals, and who gets to avoid the 5A-5 winner until the quarterfinals if that happens. You love to see it.
• McMinn Co. (8-0, 4-0) at Maryville (8-0, 4-0) (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). Disclosure: the ratings don’t expect this game to be close at all. Maryville is favored by 22, and it makes sense; they haven’t lost a Region game since 2000. However, they also aren’t often challenged in Region play by quality competition. This is the best McMinn team in a long time, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them threaten Maryville for 2-3 quarters. However, it’ll take a combination of turnovers + a better-than-expected game from McMinn’s offense to pull off a stunner.
• Ensworth (6-2, 2-1) at Brentwood Academy (5-3, 1-2) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Tell me how weird this sentence sounds to you: Brentwood Academy has to win this game to make the playoffs. No, not win the Region; a BA program that’s won four straight state titles needs to win out to feel safe about making the playoffs. They’re favored by a tiny amount here over an excellent Ensworth squad that would wrap up a playoff bid with a win.
• Central (8-0, 4-0) at South-Doyle (6-2, 4-1) (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). The 5A-2 battle for the title. Central’s played a weak schedule (not entirely their fault) and has mostly done what they should have; South-Doyle, meanwhile, has been a phenomenal squad all but five quarters of the year….and it resulted in a genuinely stunning loss to Seymour (and an expected one to Anderson County). This could be a muddy slopfest in the rain, and I don’t really know who that favors.
• Anderson Co. (7-1, 4-0) at East Hamilton (6-2, 4-0) (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET). For the 4A-2 title! The winner avoids Elizabethton until the quarterfinals but gets Greeneville in the second round. I don’t know what’s less bad, honestly. Anderson County’s the better team, but East Hamilton has been better than expected this year and their two losses are by nine total points. The two games in this series to date have been won by Anderson 63-14 and 35-3; expect this one to be much closer.
• Honorable Mentions: Clearwater Academy International (FL) at McCallie (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Knox Catholic at Brentwood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Pearl-Cohn at Independence (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cane Ridge at Ravenwood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Clay Co. at Monterey (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); MASE at Middle College (Thursday, 7:00 PM CT); Coalfield at Oliver Springs (Friday, 7:30 PM ET, BBB-TV); GPittman at Alcoa (Friday, 7:30 PM ET), Franklin Road Academy at South Gibson (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Watertown at Upperman (Thursday, 7:00 PM CT); Lake Co. at Greenfield (Thursday, 7:00 PM CT).

Here’s this week’s schedule in spreadsheet form if you need it:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

Welcome back for another week! First off, on a personal note: thank you to everyone for the kind words and messages regarding my marriage two weeks back. It’s been a blast so far, and a lot of you played some form of a role in it. Thanks!

Onto the football part. Last week’s projections went 90-19 (82.6%), the fourth-straight week of 82% or higher. This brings the season-long win total to 1036-255 (80.2%), which is slightly above where I’d hoped to be at this point. At this point last year across a much smaller 241-game sample size, the hit rate was 84.6%, but to be hitting levels that high was fairly unsustainable. (The suggested win percentage was more in the range of 79-81%.)

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Across a much smaller sample of games than usual due to fall break, last week’s games were kind of boring: just three one-point games, only 23 of 109 (21.1%) within single digits, and 48 (44%, or almost half!) of all games being decided by 30 points or more. It wasn’t a great week for the most part. Let’s hope this week is more entertaining, because the sheer star power of the best games is certainly promising.

Favorites are expected to go around 118.9-25.1 (82.5%), which isn’t great, but would be a slightly less predictable week than last. There’s a big run of games – 62 in all – that are projected anywhere from 0.1 to 14 points, though that number is equaled by how many 22+ point margins are expected.

Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 8:

• 50-59% likely to win the game: 111-79 (58.4%); 8-7 last week
• 60-69%: 141-72 (66.2%); 13-5 last week
• 70-79%: 151-64 (70.2%); 11-4 last week
• 80-89%: 203-23 (89.8%); 20-3 last week
• 90-99%: 429-16 (96.7%); 38-0 last week

An actual pat-on-the-back moment: for the first time all season, every percentage group is within its expected range. Hooray!

Onto things people actually care about. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Monday

• Freedom Prep Academy 39 at Washington 10 (Actual score: Freedom Prep Academy 34, Washington 12.)

Tuesday

• Memphis Business Academy 11 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 34 (Actual score: Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 43, Memphis Business Academy 6.)

Wednesday

• Manassas 26 at Hamilton 19 (Actual score: Manassas 36, Hamilton 34.)
• Middle College 24 at Memphis East 22 (Actual score: Middle College 60, Memphis East 12).

Thursday

• Lincoln Co. 17 at Battle Ground Academy 32
• Hillsboro 22 at Cane Ridge 32
• Stratford 17 at East Nashville 31
• Bearden 16 at Farragut 28 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
• Hunters Lane 35 at Glencliff 13
• Watertown 44 at Jackson Co. 4
• Douglass [Frederick] 17 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 23
• Fairley 33 at Trezevant 14
• Clay Co. 21 at White Co. 29

Friday

• Gibson Co. 26 at Adamsville 14
• Kingston 2 at Alcoa 43
• Pigeon Forge 0 at Austin-East 48
• Knox Catholic 19 at Baylor 27
• Station Camp 0 at Beech 50
• William Blount 11 at Bradley Central 39
• Southwind 35 at Brighton 15
• Boyd-Buchanan 25 at CAK 29
• Stewart Co. 27 at Camden Central 23
• Fulton 25 at Campbell Co. 27
• Carter 4 at Central 38
• Anderson Co. 51 at Chattanooga Central 5
• St. Benedict at Auburndale 4 at Christian Brothers 41
• Chuckey-Doak 38 at Claiborne 15
• Jellico 11 at Cloudland 39
• Daniel Boone 42 at Cocke Co. 22
• Page 34 at Columbia Central 17
• Briarcrest Christian 34 at Cordova 11
• Richland 18 at Cornersville 30
• South Gibson 22 at Covington 29
• Haywood 34 at Crockett Co. 18
• Tennessee 22 at David Crockett 28
• Macon Co. 17 at DeKalb Co. 25
• Independence 44 at Dickson Co. 6
• Ripley 28 at Dyersburg 29
• Summertown 19 at Eagleville 26
• Sequoyah 6 at East Ridge 45
• Westmoreland 27 at East Robertson 18
• Greeneville 31 at Elizabethton 29 (7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV)
• Harding Academy 18 at First Assembly Christian 32
• Community 0 at Forrest 49
• Brentwood 36 at Franklin 9
• Lipscomb Academy 36 at Franklin Co. 7
• Mount Juliet Christian Academy 8 at Friendship Christian 40
• Hendersonville 16 at Gallatin 34
• RePublic 4 at Giles Co. 56
• Christ Presbyterian Academy 40 at Goodpasture Christian 17
• Fayetteville 38 at Gordonsville 6
• Trinity Academy Tri-Cities 15 at Grace Christian 38
• Middle Tennessee Christian 39 at Grace Christian Academy 18
• Gleason 8 at Greenfield 44
• South Greene 24 at Hampton 23
• Cumberland Gap 27 at Hancock Co. 13
• Lexington 14 at Hardin Co. 25
• Greenback 43 at Harriman 8
• Red Boiling Springs 9 at Hart Co. (KY) 41
• Karns 42 at Heritage 23
• Howard Tech 38 at Hixson 10
• Fulton City (KY) 7 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 43
• KIPP Collegiate 0 at Houston 60
• Waverly Central 22 at Houston Co. 30
• South Fulton 35 at Humboldt 27
• Chester Co. 3 at Jackson North Side 47
• Liberty Tech Magnet 16 at Jackson South Side 25
• Hardin Valley 22.6 at Jefferson Co. 22.7
• Donelson Christian Academy 29 at King’s Academy 24
• Ridgeway 49 at Kingsbury 2
• West Carroll 9 at Lake Co. 44
• Westwood 3 at Lausanne Collegiate 50
• McGavock 13 at LaVergne 35
• Stewarts Creek 25 at Lebanon 20
• Gibbs 36 at Lenoir City 13
• Loretto 15 at Lewis Co. 37
• Sale Creek 29 at Lookout Valley 18
• Sweetwater 16 at Loudon 35
• Spring Hill 7 at Marshall Co. 36
• Father Ryan 0 at McCallie 42
• Dyer Co. 28 at McCracken Co. (KY) 24
• Union City 22 at McKenzie 28
• Cleveland 17 at McMinn Co. 32
• McNairy Central 20 at Milan 30
• Fayette Ware 17 at Millington Central 27
• Huntland 25 at Moore Co. 23
• Dobyns-Bennett 52 at Morristown West 1
• Oak Ridge 19 at Mount Juliet 28
• Kirby 28 at Munford 27
• Jackson Christian 7 at Nashville Christian 39
• Antioch 10 at Nashville Overton 31
• Maplewood 12 at Nolensville 34
• Johnson Co. 38 at North Greene 10
• Chattanooga Christian 34 at Notre Dame 21
• Oliver Springs 47 at Oakdale 0
• Bluff City 12 at Oakhaven 23
• Riverdale 9 at Oakland 42 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
• Meigs Co. 24 at Oneida 16
• Maryville 42 at Ooltewah 8
• Halls 0 at Peabody 53
• Whites Creek 0 at Pearl-Cohn 62
• Huntingdon 63 at Perry Co. 0
• Bledsoe Co. 33 at Polk Co. 9
• Memphis University 30 at Pope John Paul II 17
• Knoxville West 20 at Powell 25
• Smyrna 5 at Ravenwood 42
• Brainerd 0 at Red Bank 52
• Soddy Daisy 14 at Rhea Co. 31 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
• Scotts Hill 9 at Riverside 32
• Blackman 44 at Rockvale 4
• Unaka 21 at Rye Cove (VA) 31
• Northview 5 at Scott 34
• York Institute 20 at Sequatchie Co. 29
• Seymour 24 at Sevier Co. 22
• Summit 22 at Shelbyville Central 27
• Cookeville 34 at Siegel 17
• McMinn Central 18 at Signal Mountain 28
• Cannon Co. 19 at Smith Co. 33
• Whitwell 0 at South Pittsburg 53
• Knoxville Halls 17 at South-Doyle 34
• Portland 21 at Springfield 29
• Evangelical Christian 45 at St. George’s 8
• Cumberland Co. 13 at Stone Memorial 34
• Grainger 34 at Sullivan Central 21
• Happy Valley 25 at Sullivan North 17
• Sullivan East 9 at Sullivan South 45
• Midway 33 at Sunbright 15
• Marion Co. 23 at Tellico Plains 26
• Columbia Academy 23 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 20
• Davidson Academy 40 at Trinity Christian Academy 21
• Cascade 0 at Trousdale Co. 46
• Lawrence Co. 7 at Tullahoma 34
• Webb Bell Buckle 0 at Tyner Academy 50
• West Greene 20 at Unicoi Co. 32
• Fayette Academy 22 at University School of Jackson 27
• Grundy Co. 0 at Upperman 55
• Morristown East 31 at Volunteer 28
• East Hamilton 26 at Walker Valley 17
• Coffee Co. Central 22 at Warren Co. 24
• Rockwood 28 at Wartburg 18
• McEwen 39 at Wayne Co. 16
• Silverdale Academy 11 at Webb 35
• Creek Wood 31 at White House 16
• Mount Pleasant 33 at Zion Christian Academy 19

144 games in all, and 119 of them are in Region play. Over the next three weeks, that number will stay high, as important battles and playoff spots will be decided. There are several really, really good games this week, and for the first time all year, I couldn’t narrow it down to just five to profile. Here are the six best games of Week 9, from my perspective.

• Knoxville West at Powell (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). This is the 5A Game of the Year, and probably the Knox County Game of the Year. Per my ratings, these are the two best teams in 5A, and it’s been pretty well-deserved. Not content with owning 5A-3, West decided to schedule four 6A-1 teams for their non-Region play….and went 4-0. Powell, meanwhile, is responsible for Greeneville and Anderson County’s only losses. The only thing standing in the way of a 10-0 season for these two teams is each other; the winner should be considered the 5A title favorite.
• Greeneville at Elizabethton (Friday, 7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV, also Facebook). And this is the 4A Game of the Year, certainly the Upper East Tennessee Game of the Year. These are the two best teams in 4A taking on each other as part of their now-yearly rivalry. Betsy’s just 2-10 in their last twelve against Greeneville, but this is also their best team in quite some time. Greeneville, meanwhile, has recovered nicely from their opening Thursday loss to Powell and has rarely been threatened since.
• Tennessee at David Crockett (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). The two best teams in 5A-1 – a deep four-team Region – get to play each other for the Region title. Win, and you get to avoid the Knoxville Central/South-Doyle winner until the quarterfinals and you get them at home. Lose, and you have to travel to the Central/S-D winner in the second round. Neither option is lovely, but you’d much rather be first than second.
• Knox Catholic at Baylor (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). This is East-ish Tennessee heavy so far, but for good reason – the four best games this week simply happen to be taking place in Eastern Time. After a home upset of Brentwood Academy two weeks ago, KCHS has to be riding high into this road battle with Baylor, a one-loss team with their only loss coming to the best team in the state. To feel truly safe about making the playoffs, both teams badly need this win, but Catholic needs it worse; they’d leave this game with a 1-3 Region record if so.
• Summit at Shelbyville Central (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Another phenomenal game. This is effectively a battle for second place in 5A-5 – Page has 75% odds of winning out plus they’ve already beaten both schools – but who cares? 5A-5 has three 6-1 or 7-1 teams plus a 5-2 team in fourth place. Getting a home playoff game here is massive, especially when the prize is getting to avoid the Gallatin/Beech loser in round one. (They would have to face the Gallatin/Beech winner in round two, though.)
• South Gibson at Covington (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This wasn’t a game I had big eyes on until Covington took a shocking loss at Milan two weeks ago as a sizable favorite. Now, Covington – who had very good odds of a 10-0 season – has to fend off a very strong South Gibson squad at home to win 3A-7, and even then, they need help from one of McNairy Central or Westview. It’s not completely pertinent that you win the Region, as even third place gets to play an okay-ish Melrose team, but extending your home field advantage as long as possible is always recommended.
• Honorable mentions: Boyd-Buchanan at CAK (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Stratford at East Nashville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); South Greene at Hampton (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Middle College at Memphis East (Wednesday, 7:00 PM CT); Fayette Ware at Millington Central (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Kirby at Munford (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Meigs Co. at Oneida (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

Here’s this week’s full projection sheet, which you can view at this link under Week 9 or right here:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

Hello! I’m on my honeymoon right now, so analysis is obviously limited. Last week, the projections went 136-24 (85%), bringing them to 946-236 (80%) on the season. Very good!

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

I’ll add in more analysis next week. Favorites are expected to go about 87.8-21.2 (80.5%), and games should be better this week than normal. 55 Region games!

Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 7:

• 50-59% likely to win the game: 103-72 (58.9%); 10-8 last week
• 60-69%: 128-67 (65.6%); 14-5 last week
• 70-79%: 140-60 (70%); 22-8 last week
• 80-89%: 183-20 (90.1%); 22-2 last week
• 90-99%: 391-16 (96.1%); 68-1 last week

Here’s this week’s games:

Thursday

• Ravenwood 34 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 21
• Austin-East 19 at GPittman 31
• Clarksville 28 at Kenwood 16
• Melrose 54 at King Prep 0
• Rossview 13 at Lipscomb Academy 28
• Trezevant 13 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 23
• Oakhaven 8 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 29
• Westwood 15 at Memphis East 31
• Bluff City 0 at Middle College 41
• Glencliff 0 at Nolensville 62
• Northwest 25 at Northeast 28
• Pigeon Forge 16 at Northview 26
• Centennial 17 at Page 38
• Mount Juliet 37 at Spring Hill 6
• Memphis Business Academy 15 at Washington 31
• Sheffield 0 at Wooddale 53

Friday

• Arlington 25 at Bartlett 28
• Franklin Road Academy 22 at Battle Ground Academy 26
• Jefferson Co. 19 at Bearden 25
• Monterey 20 at Bledsoe Co. 24
• Lookout Valley 0 at Boyd-Buchanan 52
• Moore Co. 31 at Byrns [Jo] 10
• Cascade 21 at Cannon Co. 28
• Grace Christian 24 at Chattanooga Christian 27
• Greenbrier 28 at Cheatham Co. Central 21
• David Crockett 37 at Cherokee 19
• Grainger 24 at Chuckey-Doak 30
• Fulton 25 at Clinton 27
• Hampton 35 at Cloudland 12
• Greenback 30 at Coalfield 18
• Houston 31 at Collierville 16
• Trinity Christian Academy 20 at Columbia Academy 25
• McMinn Central 22 at Copper Basin 29
• Claiborne 29 at Cosby 20
• Bolton 20 at Craigmont 29
• Rockwood 31 at Cumberland Co. 9
• Lee (VA) 18 at Cumberland Gap 25
• Volunteer 20 at Daniel Boone 43
• University School of Jackson 31 at Davidson Academy 27
• Smith Co. 28 at DeKalb Co. 22
• Farragut 15 at Dobyns-Bennett 35
• Hamilton 8 at Douglass [Frederick] 41
• McKenzie 36 at Dresden 18
• Hixson 2 at East Hamilton 42
• Chattanooga Central 13 at East Ridge 35
• Bishop Sycamore (OH) 3 at Ensworth 40
• Nashville Christian 29 at Fayette Academy 22
• Northpoint Christian 14 at First Assembly Christian 27
• Humboldt 32 at Gleason 31
• Silverdale Academy 31 at Grace Baptist Academy 12
• Sullivan South 14 at Greeneville 44
• Johnson Co. 14 at Happy Valley 27
• Fairview 40 at Harpeth 8
• East Hickman Co. 18 at Hickman Co. 27
• Antioch 19 at Hillwood 37
• Perry Co. 14 at Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 33
• West Carroll 10 at Houston Co. 32
• Wayne Co. 1 at Huntingdon 59
• Pickett Co. 11 at Jackson Co. 36
• Wartburg 40 at Jellico 15
• Oneida 30 at King’s Academy 17
• Scott 16 at Kingston 23
• Raleigh-Egypt 5 at Kirby 45
• West Greene 0 at Knox Catholic 53
• White Co. 8 at Livingston Academy 40
• Mount Pleasant 29 at Loretto 23
• Coffee Co. Central 15 at Maplewood 31
• Walker Valley 33 at Marion Co. 17
• Giles Co. 17 at Marshall Co. 39
• Bradley Central 15 at Maryville 34
• Collinwood 16 at McEwen 33
• Germantown 22 at Memphis Central 24
• Fayette Ware 26 at Memphis Overton 18
• Memphis Nighthawks 32 at Middleton 27
• Harriman 13 at Midway 33
• Brentwood Academy 20 at Montgomery Bell Academy 18
• Springfield 23 at Montgomery Central 28
• Sevier Co. 30 at Morristown East 22
• Webb Bell Buckle 14 at Mount Juliet Christian Academy 31
• Sale Creek 23 at North Georgia (GA) 27
• McMinn Co. 40 at Notre Dame 13
• Peabody 43 at Obion Co. 5
• Sweetwater 39 at Polk Co. 9
• Trousdale Co. 30 at Portland 12
• Rhea Co. 24 at Red Bank 26
• Clinton Co. (KY) 41 at Red Boiling Springs 9
• Morristown West 11 at Science Hill 40
• Howard Tech 47 at Sequoyah 3
• Cleveland 21 at Shelbyville Central 33
• Soddy Daisy 26 at Signal Mountain 17
• Lake Co. 50 at South Fulton 10
• North Greene 0 at South Greene 58
• Meigs Co. 23 at South Pittsburg 25
• Sullivan Central 30 at Sullivan East 27
• Franklin Co. 8 at Summit 38
• Oliver Springs 41 at Sunbright 4
• Stratford 33 at Sycamore 12
• Cocke Co. 12 at Tennessee 48
• Hancock Co. 10 at Thomas Walker (VA) 37
• Clarksville Academy 16 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 32
• Baylor 38 at Tyner Academy 8
• Dyersburg 34 at Union City 20
• Elizabethton 50 at Union Co. 6
• Henry Co. 46 at West Creek 9
• Bolivar Central 16 at Westview 39
• White House 20 at White House-Heritage 30
• Whitehaven 31 at White Station 20
• Grundy Co. 25 at Whitwell 26
• LaVergne 19 at Wilson Central 28

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link. (It’s Week 8. That’s the sheet.)

Best of luck to all teams this week!

Week seven has arrived! Last week was a remarkable one, as the projections went 139-23 (85.8%), well above their 129-33 expectation. This brings the season-long projection record to 810-210 (79.4%), just six wins short of an 80% hit rate. Out of a 1,020-game sample size, this is a pretty good rate to see, and it makes me feel confident that it’ll correctly project somewhere in the neighborhood of 77-83% of the playoff game winners.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Yet again, last week had a healthy amount of one-point games – ten, with Haywood/South Gibson’s wild 50-49 barnburner leading the pack. This time, though, there were a lot more single-digit games (42), fewer gigantic 40+ point blowouts (25), and the lowest projection error to date (12.19 points off the final score, on average). The average game was decided by 22.9 points, which sounds terrible until I tell you that it was the second-closest week of the year so far behind Week 1.

This week has 42 games projected within single-digits, which sounds great…but it also projects 22 40+ point blowouts and 72 games decided by 20 points or more. However: if it hits the expected average scoring margin this week of 21.5, it’ll be the best week of the year. Funny how Region play almost always ends up creating the best weeks.

Favorites are expected to go about 132.4-28.6 (82.3%), which should mean a slightly less predictable week. Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 6:

• 50-59% likely to win the game: 93-64 (59.2%); 17-9 last week
• 60-69%: 114-62 (64.8%); 13-5 last week
• 70-79%: 118-52 (69.4%); 22-4 last week
• 80-89%: 161-18 (89.9%); 33-2 last week
• 90-99%: 323-15 (95.6%); 54-3 last week

After weeks of promise, the 70-79% group is starting to course-correct; since Week 4, those teams have won 74.1% of their games. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the coin-flip tier (50-59%) and the almost-a-certainty tier (80-89%) regress some. Both 60-69% and 90-99% are almost perfectly in line with expectations.

Now, for this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

• Bearden 21 at Hardin Valley 22 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
• Raleigh-Egypt 42 at King Prep 6
• Kirby 52 at Kingsbury 2
• Trezevant 24 at KIPP Collegiate 15
• Brentwood Academy 31 at Knox Catholic 16 (8:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
• Mitchell 32 at Manassas 3
• Stewarts Creek 38 at McGavock 9
• Bluff City 23 at Memphis Business Academy 19
• Carter 25 at Morristown West 20
• Rossview 11 at Mount Juliet 33
• LaVergne 28 at Nashville Overton 18

Friday

• East Ridge 10 at Anderson Co. 43
• McCallie 26 at Baylor 15 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
• Hillsboro 19 at Beech 31 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
• Oakland 39 at Blackman 12
• Marion Co. 15 at Bledsoe Co. 28
• Cleveland 17 at Bradley Central 34
• Signal Mountain 25 at Brainerd 17
• Arlington 30 at Brighton 27
• Powell 46 at Campbell Co. 7
• Franklin 24 at Centennial 27
• Hardin Co. 51 at Chester Co. 0
• Lipscomb Academy 27 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 20
• Briarcrest Christian 29 at Christian Brothers 15
• Unicoi Co. 27.16 at Chuckey-Doak 27.19
• Davidson Academy 43 at Clarksville Academy 21
• Pickett Co. 0 at Clay Co. 50
• Cherokee 42 at Cocke Co. 24
• Rockvale 18 at Coffee Co. Central 27
• Huntingdon 49 at Collinwood 5
• Franklin Co. 17 at Columbia Central 33
• Warren Co. 13 at Cookeville 36
• Lookout Valley 8 at Copper Basin 42
• Collierville 20 at Cordova 24
• Millington Central 40 at Craigmont 10
• White House-Heritage 20 at Creek Wood 27
• Obion Co. 13 at Crockett Co. 36
• Wartburg 30 at Cumberland Gap 17
• Ravenwood 45 at Dickson Co. 1
• Memphis Nighthawks 5 at Donelson Christian Academy 42
• South Fulton 29 at Dresden 31
• Northwest 15 at Dyer Co. 40
• Father Ryan 5 at Ensworth 33
• Camden Central 20 at Fairview 31
• Science Hill 20 at Farragut 28
• Bolton 8 at Fayette Ware 35
• Cornersville 15 at Fayetteville 30
• Grace Christian Academy 0 at Friendship Christian 57
• McKenzie 17 at Gibson Co. 30
• Hillwood 44 at Glencliff 15 (10/2/19 NOTE: Glencliff has chosen to forfeit the remainder of this season’s games.)
• Franklin Road Academy 32 at Goodpasture Christian 21
• Sullivan East 20 at Grainger 32
• Montgomery Central 37 at Greenbrier 13
• Cannon Co. 33 at Grundy Co. 17
• Adamsville 25 at Halls 18
• Fairley 50 at Hamilton 1
• Jellico 23 at Hancock Co. 24
• St. George’s 32 at Harding Academy 27
• Ripley 13 at Haywood 42
• Wilson Central 21 at Hendersonville 23
• Germantown 17 at Henry Co. 32
• McMinn Co. 52 at Heritage 0
• Scotts Hill 15 at Hickman Co. 24
• Douglass [Frederick] 23 at Hillcrest 22
• Soddy Daisy 37 at Hixson 11
• Bartlett 9 at Houston 41
• Chattanooga Central 12 at Howard Tech 36
• Greenfield 41 at Humboldt 13
• Gallatin 50 at Hunters Lane 0
• Mount Pleasant 25 at Huntland 24
• Brentwood 30 at Independence 27
• Columbia Academy 20 at Jackson Christian 24
• Cascade 25 at Jackson Co. 20
• Dobyns-Bennett 40 at Jefferson Co. 10
• Claiborne 18 at Johnson Co. 29
• West Creek 15 at Kenwood 29
• Central 31 at Knoxville Halls 16
• Clinton 3 at Knoxville West 44
• Gleason 0 at Lake Co. 62
• Evangelical Christian 34 at Lausanne Collegiate 19
• Marshall Co. 37 at Lawrence Co. 7
• Walker Valley 31 at Lenoir City 22
• Eagleville 27 at Lewis Co. 26
• Jackson South Side 10 at Lexington 24
• Jackson North Side 33 at Liberty Tech Magnet 14
• DeKalb Co. 8 at Livingston Academy 36
• Community 18 at Loretto 35
• McMinn Central 8 at Loudon 41
• Stone Memorial 13 at Macon Co. 29
• Spring Hill 14 at Maplewood 30
• Fulton 0 at Maryville 52
• Bolivar Central 10 at McNairy Central 37
• Wooddale 30 at Melrose 11
• King’s Academy 29 at Middle Tennessee Christian 28
• McEwen 48 at Middleton 13
• Coalfield 22.4 at Midway 22.3
• Covington 36 at Milan 17
• Byrns [Jo] 6 at Monterey 36
• Daniel Boone 38 at Morristown East 19
• Tullahoma 15 at Nolensville 28
• Clarksville 31 at Northeast 22
• Hatley (MS) 21.6 at Northpoint Christian 22.4
• Alcoa 57 at Northview 0
• CAK 31 at Notre Dame 27
• Karns 17 at Oak Ridge 45
• Memphis East 31 at Oakhaven 10
• Harriman 7 at Oliver Springs 38
• Rockwood 7 at Oneida 26
• Rhea Co. 27 at Ooltewah 21
• East Nashville 19 at Pearl-Cohn 35
• GPittman 51 at Pigeon Forge 0
• Montgomery Bell Academy 27 at Pope John Paul II 15
• White House 21 at Portland 27
• Gordonsville 41 at Red Boiling Springs 7
• Stratford 49 at RePublic 0
• Zion Christian Academy 20 at Richland 31
• Munford 19 at Ridgeway 33
• Houston Co. 19 at Riverside 21
• Austin-East 30 at Scott 16
• East Hamilton 47 at Sequoyah 0
• Gibbs 27 at Sevier Co. 21
• South-Doyle 44 at Seymour 2
• Rosa Fort (MS) 49 at Sheffield 0
• Lincoln Co. 14 at Shelbyville Central 38
• Riverdale 41 at Siegel 11
• Boyd-Buchanan 33 at Silverdale Academy 17
• Sequatchie Co. 23 at Smith Co. 29
• Cane Ridge 31 at Smyrna 20
• Westview 22 at South Gibson 35
• Cosby 0 at South Greene 54
• Memphis Overton 6 at Southwind 41
• Memphis University 46 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 0
• Lebanon 35 at Station Camp 6
• Cheatham Co. Central 11 at Stewart Co. 36
• Greeneville 56 at Sullivan Central 4
• Hampton 28 at Sullivan North 17
• Union Co. 18 at Sullivan South 36
• Forrest 29 at Summertown 11
• Page 18 at Summit 28
• Oakdale 16 at Sunbright 27
• Red Bank 39 at Sweetwater 16
• Harpeth 14 at Sycamore 29
• Tyner Academy 38 at Tellico Plains 12
• Tipton-Rosemark Academy 17 at Trinity Christian Academy 29
• East Robertson 5 at Trousdale Co. 40
• Cloudland 39 at Unaka 13
• Peabody 40 at Union City 8
• Nashville Christian 20 at University School of Jackson 24
• Tennessee 47 at Volunteer 11
• Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 23 at Washington 19
• East Hickman Co. 16 at Waverly Central 42
• Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 20 at Wayne Co. 30
• Grace Christian 24 at Webb 26
• North Greene 8 at West Greene 43
• Watertown 28 at Westmoreland 20
• Freedom Prep Academy 44 at Westwood 5
• Memphis Central 20 at White Station 26
• Giles Co. 41 at Whites Creek 17
• Sale Creek 19 at Whitwell 30
• Elizabethton 44 at William Blount 11
• Upperman 42 at York Institute 6

161 games in all, and 149 of them are in Region play. Nearly every game this week will have some amount of an effect on the state playoffs, which means a lot of these games have serious, heightened importance. I whittled it down to a rough list of 14 games worth keeping an eye on, but these five are the best, from my perspective:

• McCallie at Baylor (Friday, 7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV). I mean, what more could you want? It’s the best class in the state (II-AAA) with two of the eight or so best teams in Tennessee playing and it’s a historic rivalry AND they’re both undefeated. If McCallie wins this one, it’s hard to see how they lose a game against Tennessee competition (Clearwater Academy from Florida does come to town in Week 10, and that figures to be a close one). Baylor, meanwhile, has lost four of five against McCallie after winning six straight in the rivalry from 2009 to 2013; this is their best team since 2011, so it would be ideal for them to take advantage.
• Brentwood at Independence (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Two teams with better-than-expected seasons, both sitting at 5-1, both with a real chance to make a run in the state playoffs. (Collectively, one of Brentwood, Ravenwood, and Independence has around a 42% shot to make the state title game.) After a Week 1 loss to Summit, Independence has won five straight. Lately, this series has been pretty close; four of the last five games were decided by 11 points or less, three by 3 points or fewer.
• Brentwood Academy at Knox Catholic (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2). Yes, ESPN2! This was a little better of a game in preseason when BA was the #1 team in the state and KCHS was, at worst, top eight, but it’s still a game between a top four team and a top 25 team on national television, and we don’t get that very often. Catholic’s playoff odds become dire if they can’t find a way to win this game or the Baylor game in Week 9. All Brentwood has to do to wrap up a playoff spot is win two of their final three Region games, all of which they’re double-digit favorites in.
• Briarcrest Christian at Christian Brothers (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This is Briarcrest’s best team in possibly two decades, a group stacked with great playmakers on both sides of the ball. Christian Brothers, meanwhile, has mostly dominated this rivalry as of late: winners of four of the last five and 11 of 14. For Briarcrest to truly prove itself as a II-AAA title contender, this is a win they badly need.
• East Nashville at Pearl-Cohn (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Essentially everything you’d want from 3A football. These are two of the four best teams in 3A, playing just four miles apart; all it requires is a ride across the Jefferson Street bridge to get from one school to another. My system has been high on Pearl-Cohn all season long, and it’s mostly paid off, but East Nashville is far from anything to sneeze at. The Eagles just beat BGA on the road last Friday and they’ve shut out four opponents. It’s a shame that only one of these two teams can advance past the 3A quarterfinals.
• Honorable Mentions: Page at Summit (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Nashville Christian at University School of Jackson (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Knoxville Central at Knoxville Halls (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Eagleville at Lewis Co. (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cane Ridge at Smyrna (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Houston Co. at Riverside (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Watertown at Westmoreland (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); White House-Heritage at Creek Wood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Coalfield at Midway (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link or below:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

Officially the midpoint week of the Tennessee high school football season! I wrote about checking how things were going state-wide earlier this week; now, we can look at this week in particular, game-by-game. Last week, my projections went 138-28 (83.1%), almost exactly what was expected (138.8-27.2, or 83.6%). The projections are now 671-187 (78.2%) on the full season.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Last week was a weird one – ten games ended with a one-point margin, which is the most of any week this year…but only 14 other games ended with a margin of seven or less, and 37 games were decided by 40+ points. The best game was clearly Portland/West Creek, an insane game that West Creek won, 51-50. The biggest upset of the week was Greenbrier over White House-Heritage (3.3% odds of happening), which was merely a team on a nine-game losing streak defeating a team that was 3-1 with wins by scores of 42-13, 34-7, and 42-0.

This week should be more competitive. 26 games have a projected margin of four points or less, while 18 additional games are expected to be decided by single digits. There’s still a lot of expected blowouts, to be sure, but that’s the nature of in-season play.

Favorites are expected to go 130.4-32.6 (80%), which is about 3% lower than last week. More upsets, possibly! Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 5:

• 50-59% likely to win the game: 76-55 (58%); 8-4 last week
• 60-69%: 101-57 (63.9%); 14-9 last week
• 70-79%: 96-48 (66.7%); 17-7 last week
• 80-89%: 128-16 (88.9%); 29-4 last week
• 90-99%: 269-12 (95.7%); 70-4 last week

Again, for the most part, these are about exactly where I would expect them to be…except for the unusual stinginess of the 70-79% group. However, over the last three weeks, that group has gone 61-25 (70.9%), so there could be a long-term rise coming. These are the things I force myself to keep track of.

Now, for this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

• Memphis Business Academy 0 at Freedom Prep Academy 56
• Manassas 20 at KIPP Collegiate 17
• Summertown 26 at Loretto 16
• Hamilton 2 at Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 38
• Washington 14 at Middle College 31
• Hillcrest 14 at Trezevant 27
• Sevier Co. 21 at William Blount 30 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)

Friday

• Tyner Academy 10 at Alcoa 39
• Jefferson Co. 15 at Anderson Co. 39
• Smyrna 40 at Antioch 5
• Sheffield 0 at Arlington 49
• Brainerd 6 at Austin-East 42
• East Nashville 25 at Battle Ground Academy 23
• Memphis East 31 at Bluff City 10
• Fayette Ware 29 at Bolivar Central 15
• Northpoint Christian 26 at Bolton 17
• Christ Presbyterian Academy 15 at Brentwood 40
• West Toronto Prep 2 at Brentwood Academy 44
• Madison Ridgeland Academy (MS) 20 at Briarcrest Christian 28
• Kingsbury 9 at Brighton 43
• Chattanooga Christian 24 at CAK 26
• Nashville Overton 9 at Cane Ridge 39
• South-Doyle 37 at Carter 8
• Shelbyville Central 33 at Centennial 25
• Knox Central (KY) 7 at Central 39
• East Hickman Co. 15 at Cheatham Co. Central 30
• Adamsville 26 at Chester Co. 16
• South Greene 35 at Chuckey-Doak 20
• Dyer Co. 30 at Clarksville 25
• Avery Co. (NC) 37 at Cloudland 13
• Cookeville 32 at Coffee Co. Central 16
• Zion Christian Academy 28 at Collinwood 20
• Cascade 24 at Community 28
• North Georgia (GA) 16 at Copper Basin 37
• Whitehaven 32 at Cordova 17
• Middle Tennessee Christian 16 at Cornersville 34
• Ripley 5 at Covington 48
• Sycamore 9 at Creek Wood 35
• Dobyns-Bennett 43 at Daniel Boone 14
• Tipton-Rosemark Academy 21 at Davidson Academy 38
• Cannon Co. 21 at DeKalb Co. 26
• Grace Baptist Academy 8 at Donelson Christian Academy 36
• Mitchell 21 at Douglass [Frederick] 19
• Signal Mountain 21 at East Ridge 22
• Byrns [Jo] 13 at East Robertson 28
• Cherokee 21 at Elizabethton 41
• Collierville 16 at Evangelical Christian 28
• Maryville 38 at Farragut 10
• Germantown 22.3 at Father Ryan 22.1
• Jackson Christian 14 at Fayette Academy 37
• Richland 10 at Fayetteville 38
• Lawrence Co. 12 at Forrest 34
• Grundy Co. 10 at Franklin Co. 39
• RePublic 0 at Franklin Road Academy 53
• Rhea Co. 25 at Gibbs 20
• Page 35 at Giles Co. 23
• Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 35 at Gleason 18
• Whites Creek 29 at Glencliff 21
• Hillwood 26 at Goodpasture Christian 37
• Coalfield 27 at Gordonsville 16
• Trinity Academy Tri-Cities 10 at GPittman 39
• Fairview 35 at Greenbrier 20
• Fulton Co. (KY) 16 at Greenfield 36
• Fulton City (KY) 6 at Halls 47
• Johnson Co. 15 at Hampton 29
• Melrose 14 at Hardin Co. 30
• Knoxville West 32 at Hardin Valley 10
• McNairy Central 37 at Harding Academy 15
• Montgomery Central 38 at Harpeth 6
• Rockwood 25 at Harriman 14
• Independence 32 at Hendersonville 21
• Kenwood 5 at Henry Co. 35
• Lewis Co. 32 at Hickman Co. 14
• Boyd-Buchanan 37 at Hixson 17
• Milan 21 at Huntingdon 38
• Dyersburg 27.8 at Jackson North Side 28.4
• Union City 20 at Jackson South Side 24
• North Greene 13 at Jellico 38
• Campbell Co. 33 at Karns 30
• Friendship Christian 35 at King’s Academy 21
• Stone Memorial 16 at Kingston 28
• Science Hill 19 at Knox Catholic 31
• Powell 36 at Knoxville Halls 14
• Westview 30.6 at Lake Co. 30.8
• Wooddale 25 at Lausanne Collegiate 27
• Beech 27 at Lebanon 18
• Greenback 39 at Lenoir City 15
• Crockett Co. 15 at Lexington 24
• Craigmont 19 at Liberty Tech Magnet 28
• Huntland 38 at Lookout Valley 9
• Polk Co. 0 at Loudon 48
• Trousdale Co. 28 at Macon Co. 12
• Waverly Central 42 at McEwen 18
• Franklin 30 at McGavock 11
• Bearden 15 at McMinn Co. 28
• McMinn Central 7 at Meigs Co. 42
• Christian Brothers 23 at Memphis Central 20
• Fairley 10 at Memphis University 39
• Tellico Plains 23 at Midway 26
• First Assembly Christian 22.5 at Millington Central 23.1
• Jackson Co. 10 at Monterey 34
• Ensworth 20 at Montgomery Bell Academy 15
• Eagleville 30 at Moore Co. 23
• Maplewood 14 at Mount Juliet 31
• Wayne Co. 15 at Mount Pleasant 39
• Memphis Overton 12 at Munford 38
• Clarksville Academy 8 at Nashville Christian 41
• Columbia Central 19 at Nolensville 32
• West Creek 27.3 at Northeast 27.1
• Union Co. 33 at Northview 14
• Clinton 14 at Oak Ridge 40
• Red Boiling Springs 21 at Oakdale 23
• Westwood 24 at Oakhaven 17
• Dresden 23 at Obion Co. 30
• Upperman 26 at Oneida 15
• Scotts Hill 35 at Perry Co. 10
• Sullivan North 31 at Pigeon Forge 14
• Christian Co. (KY) 12 at Pope John Paul II 38
• South Pittsburg 21 at Red Bank 30
• Southwind 24 at Ridgeway 25
• Blackman 24 at Riverdale 27 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
• Camden Central 28 at Riverside 18
• Oakland 59 at Rockvale 0
• Dickson Co. 13 at Rossview 29
• King Prep 30 at Rossville Christian Academy 24
• Pickett Co. 19 at Sale Creek 31
• Cumberland Gap 7 at Scott 30
• Bledsoe Co. 23 at Sequatchie Co. 21
• Heritage 17 at Seymour 33
• Grace Christian 35 at Silverdale Academy 15
• Livingston Academy 32 at Smith Co. 18
• Ooltewah 24 at Soddy Daisy 25
• Middleton 21 at South Fulton 43
• Haywood 26 at South Gibson 28
• Marshall Co. 31 at Springfield 19
• Raleigh-Egypt 14 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 31
• Kirby 37 at St. George’s 22
• Stewarts Creek 42 at Station Camp 5
• McKenzie 28 at Stewart Co. 23
• Hunters Lane 5 at Stratford 40
• David Crockett 52 at Sullivan Central 2
• Unicoi Co. 35 at Sullivan East 18
• Northwest 8 at Summit 42
• Sequoyah 9 at Sweetwater 46
• Abingdon (VA) 18 at Tennessee 32
• Lincoln Co. 15 at Tullahoma 30
• Hancock Co. 17 at Twin Springs (VA) 30
• Happy Valley 44 at Unaka 1
• Columbia Academy 8 at University School of Jackson 34
• Cumberland Co. 10 at Walker Valley 39
• Siegel 25 at Warren Co. 24
• White House 19 at Watertown 34
• Notre Dame 23 at Webb 31
• Grace Christian Academy 23 at Webb Bell Buckle 30
• Gibson Co. 30 at West Carroll 16
• McCallie 36 at West Forsyth (GA) 9
• Cosby 9 at West Greene 40
• Clay Co. 21 at Westmoreland 23
• Portland 23 at White House-Heritage 24
• Bartlett 20 at White Station 28
• Gallatin 33 at Wilson Central 13
• White Co. 27 at York Institute 23

Saturday (?)

• Hillsboro 14 at Pearl-Cohn 40 (5:00 PM CT)

163 games in all, 36 of them in Region play. Some of these are pretty darn important! Here are the five best games this week from my perspective, plus some honorable mentions.

• East Nashville at Battle Ground Academy (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Well, this was setting up to be one of the best battles the mid-state will offer this year…until BGA got their doors blown off by Christ Presbyterian last week. Anyway, it’s still really good: East Nashville has started 5-0 without a ton of trouble, outside of their defensive strugglefest with Giles County. BGA is 4-1 with the lone loss. It’s hard to beat this game this week.
• Haywood at South Gibson (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Haywood has followed up their 2018 4A title game run with another team worthy of title contention; they’re undefeated against state competition, though they did get blown out by Olive Branch (MS). South Gibson, meanwhile, has blown by most observers’ expectations, starting out 5-0 by the skin of their teeth. Their last three wins have come by a total of 18 points, all one-score victories; this will be an excellent proving grounds for them.
• Madison-Ridgeland Academy (MS) at Briarcrest Christian (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This promises to be a fun one. Madison-Ridgeland demolished their first five opponents this season to the tune of a 241-29 score…and then lost at Philadelphia (MS), their first real threat on the schedule. Briarcrest, as highlighted in the midseason review, has blown past all expectations, with a 5-0 record and four wins over top 75 teams in the state. Briarcrest’s excellent defense will have their hands full with the Madison-Ridgeland offense, but on the flip side, it doesn’t appear that MRA’s defense is quite on the same level.
• Westview at Lake Co. (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). This might be the single most-enjoyable game of the week. Westview is having one of the most surprising seasons of all, starting out 4-1 in a year they weren’t expected to get to .500. They average 42 points a game behind Ty Simpson, a four-star QB recruit. Lake Co., meanwhile, has done everything expected of them; they are 4-0 with this game being the only meaningful barrier between them and a 10-0 season. Combined, these two teams are averaging over 86 points a game, and while Lake Co. has yet to allow more than 21 points in a game, they’ve also played just one offense averaging over 30.
• South Pittsburg at Red Bank (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). It’s such a great thing that this game is happening. The two schools are two of Chattanooga’s best programs, but despite being only 40 minutes apart, they haven’t played each other in at least three decades. (I couldn’t verify it any further.) It’s a match-up of the #1 team in the state’s 1A poll versus the #4 team in the 3A poll. What more could we really want?
• Honorable Mentions: Powell at Knoxville Halls (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Upperman at Oneida (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Blackman at Riverdale (Friday, 7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV); Marshall Co. at Springfield (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Columbia Central at Nolensville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Cherokee at Elizabethton (Friday, 7:30 PM ET); Chattanooga Christian at CAK (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link or below:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!

We’re essentially at the midpoint of the Tennessee high school football season. Most teams have played at least four games, and a lot of teams have played five; you generally know what you’ve got by now. As such, it makes sense to stop, take a look around, and figure out what’s going on. Call this the Dipstick Report: we’re taking a look at the oil, figuring out if changes need to be made or if things are still fine and good. Here’s a report on all six public school classes, the three private school classes, over- and under-achievers, and odds of going undefeated.

1A

WHAT’S CHANGED: …not much? Of the six teams in preseason that had a 10% or better chance to win the championship, three have risen to the top: Huntingdon (the preseason favorite), South Pittsburg (from #3 to #2), and Lake County (#6 to #3). Whitwell has been a gigantic disappointment, starting out 0-5 and now being projected to finish 2-8/3-7. Greenback and Cornersville’s respective roads have been bumpy, but Greenback has recovered to get back to #4; Cornersville, #8.

The biggest surprise is easily Fayetteville, a preseason 3-7 projected team that now has a 71% shot to go undefeated. They rank #6 in the 1A statewide ratings. Freedom Prep Academy is right behind them, playing in a very easy region with a 96% shot at 10-0. Other notables: Oliver Springs, preseason #7, is #9; Mount Pleasant, #8, is #10.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

1. 1. Huntingdon
   2. South Pittsburg
   3. Lake Co.
   4. Greenback
   5. Freedom Prep Academy
   6. Fayetteville
   7. Clay Co.
   8. Cornersville
   9. Oliver Springs
   10. Mount Pleasant
   11. Monterey
   12. Greenfield
   13. Moore Co.
   14. Coalfield
   15. Huntland

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Mount Pleasant at Huntland (Week 7); Cornersville at Fayetteville (Week 7); Greenback at Coalfield (Week 8); Huntland at Moore Co. (Week 9); Coalfield at Oliver Springs (Week 10); Clay Co. at Monterey (Week 10); Cornersville at Huntland (Week 10); Lake Co. at Greenfield (Week 10); Moore Co. at Mount Pleasant (Week 11); Memphis East at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

• Region 1: Cloudland, Jellico, Hancock Co., Unaka.
• Region 2: Greenback, Oliver Springs, Coalfield, Midway.
• Region 3: South Pittsburg, Copper Basin, Whitwell, Lookout Valley.
• Region 4: Clay Co., Monterey, Gordonsville, Byrns [Jo].
• Region 5: Fayetteville, Cornersville, Mount Pleasant, Huntland.
• Region 6: Huntingdon, McEwen, Wayne Co., Collinwood.
• Region 7: Lake Co., Greenfield, West Carroll, Dresden.
• Region 8: Freedom Prep Academy, Middle College, Memphis East, Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: South Pittsburg (1A-3) at Greenback (1A-2); Lake Co. (1A-7) at Huntingdon (1A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: South Pittsburg (1A-3) vs. Huntingdon (1A-6), Friday, December 6.

2A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Almost nothing. Five of the top six in my ratings are the same teams from mid-August, with only Forrest making a surprise entry. Forrest was expected to be good – #12 in the preseason ratings – but they’ve beaten those expectations by a lot with a 5-0 start. The clear favorite, as it was in preseason, is Peabody, last year’s champions. The gap from first-place Peabody to second-place Meigs County is the same at the gap from second to 11th. Trousdale County ranks fourth in title odds. A couple of the preseason back-end title potentials are still hanging around: Watertown, Tyner Academy, South Greene, etc.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

1. 1. Peabody
   2. Meigs Co.
   3. Trousdale Co.
   4. Forrest
   5. Tyner Academy
   6. Fairley
   7. South Greene
   8. Watertown
   9. Oneida
   10. Waverly Central
   11. Eagleville
   12. Gibson Co.
   13. Lewis Co.
   14. Bledsoe Co.
   15. Westmoreland

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Mitchell at Douglass [Frederick] (Week 6); Watertown at Westmoreland (Week 7); Eagleville at Lewis Co. (Week 7); McKenzie at Gibson Co. (Week 7); South Greene at Hampton (Week 9); Meigs Co. at Oneida (Week 9); Waverly Central at Houston Co. (Week 9); Lewis Co. at Forrest (Week 11); Gibson Co. at Peabody (Week 11); Memphis Academy of Health Sciences at Fairley (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

• Region 1: South Greene, Happy Valley, Hampton, Sullivan North.
• Region 2: Meigs Co., Oneida, Rockwood, Wartburg.
• Region 3: Tyner Academy, Bledsoe Co., Tellico Plains, Marion Co.
• Region 4: Watertown, Trousdale Co., Westmoreland, East Robertson.
• Region 5: Forrest, Summertown, Eagleville, Lewis Co.
• Region 6: Waverly Central, Houston Co., Riverside, Hickman Co.
• Region 7: Peabody, Gibson Co., McKenzie, Union City.
• Region 8: Fairley, Mitchell, Memphis Academy of Health Sciences, Douglass [Frederick].

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Trousdale Co. (2A-4) at Meigs Co. (2A-2); Peabody (2A-7) at Forrest (2A-5).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Meigs Co. (2A-2) vs. Peabody (2A-7), Saturday, December 7.

3A

WHAT’S CHANGED: A lot, actually. Alcoa, who has won four straight 3A titles, is still one of the two best in the class…but they’re no longer the title favorite, because Pearl-Cohn is somehow much better than their already-high expectations. Covington, East Nashville, and Red Bank all look very good, too. The biggest stunner is a Loudon team that wasn’t expected to do much more than 4-5 wins, but is on pace for a 9-1 season with a 21% shot to go undefeated. Past that, there’s been some lower-end surprises, both positive (GPittman, Sweetwater, Stewart Co., Westview, South Gibson) and negative (York Institute, Bolivar Central).

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

1. 1. Pearl-Cohn
   2. Alcoa
   3. Covington
   4. East Nashville
   5. Red Bank
   6. South Gibson
   7. Upperman
   8. GPittman
   9. Loudon
   10. Wooddale
   11. Stratford
   12. Westview
   13. Austin-East
   14. Milan
   15. McNairy Central

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: East Nashville at Pearl-Cohn (Week 7); Covington at Milan (Week 7); Westview at South Gibson (Week 7); Austin-East at GPittman (Week 8); Stratford at East Nashville (Week 9); Sweetwater at Loudon (Week 9); McNairy Central at Milan (Week 9); South Gibson at Covington (Week 9); GPittman at Alcoa (Week 10); Signal Mountain at Sweetwater (Week 11); Covington at McNairy Central (Week 11); Milan at Westview (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

• Region 1: Unicoi Co., Chuckey-Doak, Johnson Co., West Greene.
• Region 2: Alcoa, GPittman, Austin-East, Kingston.
• Region 3: Red Bank, Loudon, Sweetwater, Signal Mountain.
• Region 4: Upperman, Smith Co., Sequatchie Co., York Institute.
• Region 5: Pearl-Cohn, East Nashville, Stratford, Giles Co.
• Region 6: Fairview, Camden Central, Sycamore, Stewart Co.
• Region 7: Covington, South Gibson, Westview, Milan.
• Region 8: Wooddale, Melrose, Raleigh-Egypt, Sheffield.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Red Bank (3A-3) at Alcoa (3A-2); Covington (3A-7) at Pearl-Cohn (3A-5).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Alcoa (3A-2) vs. Pearl-Cohn (3A-5), Friday, December 6.

4A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Well…I thought more would have changed by now, but essentially nothing is different. The top two teams in the state are the same (Greeneville and Anderson Co.), though Greenville’s giant margin on the rest of the field has been mostly erased. Elizabethton has been better than expected, which has made them the third-best team in 4A instead of merely fifth-best. Livingston Academy (+3.85 wins over expectation) has been a nice surprise, as has Fayette Ware (+4.57), but largely, not a ton is different from preseason. Other than that…Maplewood is a bit lesser than expected, I guess?

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

1. 1. Greeneville
   2. Anderson Co.
   3. Elizabethton
   4. Nolensville
   5. Marshall Co.
   6. Haywood
   7. Livingston Academy
   8. Hardin Co.
   9. Tullahoma
   10. East Hamilton
   11. Maplewood
   12. Creek Wood
   13. Springfield
   14. Montgomery Central
   15. Lexington

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Tullahoma at Nolensville (Week 7); Springfield at Montgomery Central (Week 8); Greeneville at Elizabethton (Week 9); Maplewood at Nolensville (Week 9); Lexington at Hardin Co. (Week 9); Anderson Co. at East Hamilton (Week 10); Creek Wood at Portland (Week 10); East Hamilton at Howard Tech (Week 11); Maplewood at Tullahoma (Week 11); Nolensville at Marshall Co. (Week 11); Springfield at Creek Wood (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

• Region 1: Greeneville, Elizabethton, Sullivan South, Union Co.
• Region 2: Anderson Co., East Hamilton, Howard Tech, East Ridge.
• Region 3: Livingston Academy, Macon Co., DeKalb Co., Stone Memorial.
• Region 4: Marshall Co., Nolensville, Tullahoma, Maplewood.
• Region 5: Springfield, Montgomery Central, Portland, Creek Wood.
• Region 6: Hardin Co., Lexington, Jackson North Side, Jackson South Side.
• Region 7: Haywood, Dyersburg, Crockett Co., Ripley.
• Region 8: Millington Central, Fayette Ware, Craigmont, Bolton.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Marshall Co. (4A-4) at Greeneville (4A-1); Haywood (4A-7) at Hardin Co. (4A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Greeneville (4A-1) vs. Haywood (4A-7), Saturday, December 7.

5A

WHAT’S CHANGED: I don’t know that any poll blew it as hard as the preseason 5A poll on this site did. Only six of the ten teams are still in the top ten, with #3 and #4 disappearing quickly. The preseason favorite, Central, now ranks #5 through no fault of their own – it’s simply that their competition is way tougher this year. Powell, Gallatin, and South-Doyle have all been better than the numbers anticipated, and Knoxville West has taken an already-very-good team to being great. And that doesn’t even mention who’s behind Central: David Crockett, Summit, Henry Co., Beech, etc. I can’t promise this too thoroughly, but I think this is going to be the most wide-open class of all. I have eight teams at 5% or better to win the title, with nine having a realistic shot to make the title game.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

1. 1. Powell
   2. Gallatin
   3. Knoxville West
   4. South-Doyle
   5. Central
   6. David Crockett
   7. Summit
   8. Henry Co.
   9. Beech
   10. Shelbyville Central
   11. Page
   12. Tennessee
   13. Hillsboro
   14. Oak Ridge
   15. Dyer Co.

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Dyer Co. at Clarksville (Week 6); Southwind at Ridgeway (Week 6); Central at Knoxville Halls (Week 7); Page at Summit (Week 7); Hillsboro at Beech (Week 7); David Crockett at Cherokee (Week 8); Knoxville West at Powell (Week 8); Tennessee at David Crockett (Week 9); Knoxville Halls at South-Doyle (Week 9); Summit at Shelbyville Central (Week 9); Page at Columbia Central (Week 9); Kirby at Munford (Week 9); David Crockett at Daniel Boone (Week 10); Cherokee at Tennessee (Week 10); Central at South-Doyle (Week 10); Oak Ridge at Powell (Week 10); Gallatin at Beech (Week 10); Daniel Boone at Cherokee (Week 11); Central at Gibbs (Week 11); Columbia Central at Shelbyville Central (Week 11); Ridgeway at Kirby (Week 11). Hey, can you tell yet that this is an ultra-competitive class?

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

• Region 1: David Crockett, Tennessee, Cherokee, Daniel Boone.
• Region 2: South-Doyle, Central, Knoxville Halls, Gibbs.
• Region 3: Powell, Knoxville West, Oak Ridge, Karns.
• Region 4: Rhea Co., Soddy Daisy, Walker Valley, Lenoir City.
• Region 5: Summit, Page, Shelbyville Central, Columbia Central.
• Region 6: Gallatin, Beech, Hillsboro, Hunters Lane.
• Region 7: Henry Co., Dyer Co., Clarksville, Kenwood.
• Region 8: Southwind, Ridgeway, Kirby, Munford.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Powell (5A-3) at South-Doyle (5A-2); Henry Co. (5A-7) at Gallatin (5A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Powell (5A-3) vs. Gallatin (5A-6), Friday, December 6.

6A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Of course nothing’s changed. The top two teams, as it’s been for seemingly 20 years now, are Oakland and Maryville. Whitehaven, as it’s been for ten years, is lurking right behind. The only differences are that Mount Juliet and Farragut, two teams I had singled out to be dark-horse champion picks, are worse than expected, while Dobyns-Bennett has come out of nowhere to own 6A-1. Brentwood’s upset of Ravenwood upset the apple cart a little and cemented Brentwood as one of the pleasant surprises of 2019. They aren’t really a stunning surprise, but Houston has been better than expected, has won every swing game, and has a 68% shot of a 10-0 season.

TOP 15 TEAMS: Are below.

1. 1. Oakland
   2. Maryville
   3. Whitehaven
   4. Houston
   5. Dobyns-Bennett
   6. Ravenwood
   7. Brentwood
   8. Bradley Central
   9. Independence
   10. Mount Juliet
   11. Cordova
   12. McMinn Co.
   13. Stewarts Creek
   14. Cane Ridge
   15. Science Hill

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Blackman at Riverdale (Week 6); Science Hill at Farragut (Week 7); Brentwood at Independence (Week 7); Collierville at Cordova (Week 7); Memphis Central at White Station (Week 7); Houston at Collierville (Week 8); Whitehaven at White Station (Week 8); Science Hill at Dobyns-Bennett (Week 10); Cordova at Houston (Week 10); Bradley Central at McMinn Co. (Week 11); Mount Juliet at Hendersonville (Week 11); Independence at Ravenwood (Week 11); White Station at Germantown (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below.

• Region 1: Dobyns-Bennett, Science Hill, Farragut, Bearden.
• Region 2: Maryville, Bradley Central, McMinn Co., Cleveland.
• Region 3: Oakland, Riverdale, Blackman, Cookeville.
• Region 4: Mount Juliet, Lebanon, Wilson Central, Hendersonville.
• Region 5: Cane Ridge, Stewarts Creek, Smyrna, LaVergne.
• Region 6: Brentwood, Ravenwood, Independence, Centennial.
• Region 7: Houston, Bartlett, Collierville, Cordova.
• Region 8: Whitehaven, White Station, Memphis Central, Germantown.

FINAL FOUR PROJECTION: Oakland (6A-3) at Maryville (6A-2); Houston (6A-7) at Brentwood (6A-6).

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Oakland (6A-3) vs. Houston (6A-7), Saturday, December 7.

II-A

WHAT’S CHANGED: Lots! Sort of. The current statewide favorite was #5 in the preseason poll, #2 was #6, and #1 and #2 are now #4 and #5. University School of Jackson has emerged out of the pile-up to become the temporary II-A favorite, with Nashville Christian and Fayette Academy right behind. The biggest surprise is probably Donelson Christian Academy (+3.98 wins over expectation), emerging from the cellar to be a serious title contender.

TOP 10 TEAMS: Are below.

1. 1. University School of Jackson
   2. Nashville Christian
   3. Fayette Academy
   4. Davidson Academy
   5. Friendship Christian
   6. Trinity Christian Academy
   7. Donelson Christian Academy
   8. Columbia Academy
   9. Jackson Christian
   10. Tipton-Rosemark Academy

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Nashville Christian at University School of Jackson (Week 7); Nashville Christian at Fayette Academy (Week 8); University School of Jackson at Davidson Academy (Week 8); Fayette Academy at University School of Jackson (Week 9); Davidson Academy at Trinity Christian Academy (Week 9); Davidson Academy at Fayette Academy (Week 10); Nashville Christian at Trinity Christian Academy (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, from #1 seed to #6.

• East: Friendship Christian, Donelson Christian Academy, King’s Academy, Middle Tennessee Christian, Mount Juliet Christian Academy, Grace Baptist Academy.
• West: University School of Jackson, Nashville Christian, Fayette Academy, Davidson Academy, Trinity Christian Academy, Tipton-Rosemark Academy.

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Nashville Christian (II-A West #2) vs. University School of Jackson (II-A West #1), Thursday, December 5.

II-AA

WHAT’S CHANGED: Preseason favorite Christ Presbyterian Academy has had a disastrous start, beginning the season 0-4 before an upset win over Battle Ground Academy last week. In their #1 stead is Evangelical Christian, who hasn’t won a state title since 2005. Just below them is the surprise of the season: Lipscomb Academy, with head coach Trent Dilfer (yes, the QB), who last won a title in 2007. Battle Ground is right behind them. A special shoutout to Boyd-Buchanan, who went 0-10 last year but is tracking towards a 6-4 or 7-3 season.

TOP 10 TEAMS: Are below.

1. 1. Evangelical Christian
   2. Lipscomb Academy
   3. Battle Ground Academy
   4. Christ Presbyterian Academy
   5. Franklin Road Academy
   6. Lausanne Collegiate
   7. Grace Christian
   8. Webb
   9. CAK
   10. Chattanooga Christian

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: Chattanooga Christian at CAK (Week 6); Grace Christian at Webb (Week 7); Lipscomb Academy at Christ Presbyterian Academy (Week 7); Evangelical Christian at Lausanne Collegiate (Week 7); Grace Christian at Chattanooga Christian (Week 8); Franklin Road Academy at Battle Ground Academy (Week 8); Webb at Chattanooga Christian (Week 10); CAK at Grace Christian (Week 10); Webb at CAK (Week 11); Christ Presbyterian Academy at Franklin Road Academy (Week 11); Battle Ground Academy at Lipscomb Academy (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, from #1 seed to #5 and #1 to #6 for West.

• East: Grace Christian, Chattanooga Christian, CAK, Webb, Boyd-Buchanan.
• Middle: Lipscomb Academy, Christ Presbyterian Academy, Battle Ground Academy, Franklin Road Academy, Goodpasture Christian.
• West: Evangelical Christian, Lausanne Collegiate, First Assembly Christian, St. George’s, Harding Academy, Northpoint Christian.

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Lipscomb Academy (II-AA Middle #1) vs. Evangelical Christian (II-AA West #1), Thursday, December 5.

II-AAA

WHAT’S CHANGED: How about this: the preseason #1 team in the state is now projected to finish third in its region (Brentwood Academy), and the preseason #3 is expected to miss the playoffs altogether (Knoxville Catholic). McCallie, somewhat out of nowhere, looks like the best team in the state and in this class. Because of how hyper-competitive this class is, a team like Ensworth can be one of the ten best teams in the state…..and also be fourth in its own region. It’s nuts, man. Briarcrest Christian has surprised a lot of people positively; on the flip side, this is one of the more disappointing Montgomery Bell Academy teams anyone can recall.

TOP 10 TEAMS: Are below.

1. 1. McCallie
   2. Brentwood Academy
   3. Baylor
   4. Ensworth
   5. Briarcrest Christian
   6. Memphis University
   7. Montgomery Bell Academy
   8. Knox Catholic
   9. Christian Brothers
   10. Pope John Paul II

BIGGEST GAMES REMAINING: McCallie at Baylor (Week 7); Brentwood Academy at Knox Catholic (Week 7); Briarcrest Christian at Christian Brothers (Week 7); Montgomery Bell Academy at Pope John Paul II (Week 7); Knox Catholic at Baylor (Week 9); Memphis University at Pope John Paul II (Week 9); Ensworth at Brentwood Academy (Week 10); Ensworth at McCallie (Week 11); Baylor at Brentwood Academy (Week 11); Christian Brothers at Montgomery Bell Academy (Week 11); Memphis University at Briarcrest Christian (Week 11).

PROJECTED PLAYOFF TEAMS: By region below, listed from #1 seed to #4.

• East: McCallie, Baylor, Brentwood Academy, Ensworth.
• West: Briarcrest Christian, Montgomery Bell Academy, Memphis University, Christian Brothers.

TITLE GAME PROJECTION: Baylor (II-AAA East #2) vs. McCallie (II-AAA East #1), Thursday, December 5.

Who’s surprising everyone?

By nature of kids being kids, ratings are going to have a ton of variance. Still, high school football teams mostly oscillate within a reasonable expectation – of the 342 teams I cover, 308 are expected to end up within three wins of their original expectation. However, that leaves 34 teams that have either seriously over- or under-achieved to date. Let’s narrow that down to the five biggest surprises on each side. In the interest of being kind, I’m only writing capsules on teams that have over-achieved; I can’t imagine that anyone, especially players and fans of teams mentioned, want to read about how badly their team has missed expectations.

OVERACHIEVERS:

1. Fayetteville (5-0, 1A-5, +7.16 wins over expectation). SEVEN POINT ONE SIX!!!!!! This is the third year I’ve done this, and just once has a team even breached +5. Fayetteville went 1-9 last year and has completely reversed course; they’re on track to finish 10-0, with a 71% chance of doing so. What an immense turnaround by new head coach Kenny Morson.
2. Westview (4-1, 3A-7, +5.26 wins). To be quite honest, I don’t know if these projections quite understood that Westview would be unearthing a four-star quarterback that Alabama and Auburn are both desperate to get. While the offense is, obviously, much better (17.2 more points per game in 2019), the defense has improved quite a bit, too, holding Gibson Co. and Dresden to a combined 16 points. Matt McConnell is their first-year head coach with a record of 54-14 overall now, having already engineered one complete turnaround at Waverly Central. It seems like he’s destined for brighter things.
3. Cherokee (5-0, 5A-1, +4.59 wins). Check out Cherokee! One of the more consistently okay programs in the state (in the last 14 years, they’ve finished with exactly five losses seven times!) appears to be capital-B Back, exploding past everyone’s expectations to be on track for a 7-3ish season. The key difference from last year to now is clearly the defense, which has gone from being one of the worst units in East Tennessee to one of the best – a 23-point-per-game improvement.
4. Fayette Ware (4-0, 4A-8, +4.57 wins). It really wasn’t that long ago – 2008 to 2014 – when Fayette Ware lost 66 straight games across seven seasons. This millennium alone, they’re gone winless ten times. Now, out of basically nowhere, they’ve emerged as a shocking playoff team from 4A-8 with a 12% chance at going undefeated. This is one of my favorite stories of the year.
5. Copper Basin (4-1, 1A-3, +4.52 wins). In a nod to a team on the negative side of this list, Copper Basin took a result that would have been stunning preseason – a 46-27 win over Whitwell – and made it look easy. Copper Basin last finished with a winning record in 2014 and has essentially done very little outside of one 10-win season in 2010; considering they’re on track for a 7-8 win season, they should have a lot to celebrate.

Honorable mentions: Loudon (+4.52 wins), Boyd-Buchanan (+4.25 wins), Knoxville West (+4.13 wins), Gallatin (+4.08 wins), Dobyns-Bennett (+4.01).

UNDERACHIEVERS:

1. Whitwell (0-5, 1A-3, -6.45 wins under expectation).
2. Polk County (0-5, 2A-3, -5.69 wins).
3. Fulton (0-5, 5A-3, -5.67 wins).
4. York Institute (2-3, 3A-4, -4.54 wins).
5. Northeast (0-5, 5A-7, -4.50 wins).

Who can still go undefeated?

Per my spreadsheet, it looks like there’s still 45 teams left with a chance to go undefeated. All of these teams are at least 4-0, and around 75% of them are 5-0. Some of them even play each other! (A special shoutout to the incredible Powell/Knoxville West game coming up soon.) Here’s how the teams rank from 1 to 45, in terms of odds of going undefeated.

1. 1. Freedom Prep Academy (5-0, 1A-8, 95.69% odds of going undefeated)
   2. Oakland (5-0, 6A-3, 94.41%)
   3. Peabody (5-0, 2A-7, 86.93%)
   4. Huntingdon (5-0, 1A-6, 84.68%)
   5. Maryville (4-0, 6A-2, 82.42%)
   6. Fayetteville (5-0, 1A-5, 70.74%)
   7. Houston (5-0, 6A-7, 68.55%)
   8. Covington (5-0, 3A-7, 65.78%)
   9. Livingston Academy (5-0, 4A-3, 62.85%)
   10. Pearl-Cohn (5-0, 3A-5, 61.13%)
   11. Forrest (5-0, 2A-5, 60.96%)
   12. South Greene (5-0, 2A-1, 54.67%)
   13. David Crockett (4-0, 5A-1, 54.08%)
   14. Gallatin (5-0, 5A-6, 52.37%)
   15. Summit (5-0, 5A-5, 39.85%)
   16. McCallie (5-0, II-AAA East, 38.36%)
   17. Elizabethton (4-0, 4A-1, 36.92%)
   18. Red Bank (5-0, 3A-3, 35.76%)
   19. Powell (5-0, 5A-3, 35.17%)
   20. Dobyns-Bennett (4-0, 6A-1, 34.39%)
   21. Lake Co. (4-0, 1A-7, 30.49%)
   22. Briarcrest Christian (5-0, II-AAA West, 30.32%)
   23. Knoxville West (5-0, 5A-3, 27.48%)
   24. Meigs Co. (5-0, 2A-2, 26.99%)
   25. Central (5-0, 5A-2, 25.99%)
   26. Loudon (5-0, 3A-3, 20.67%)
   27. Beech (5-0, 5A-6, 17.53%)
   28. University School of Jackson (4-0, II-A West, 16.83%)
   29. South Pittsburg (5-0, 1A-3, 16.42%)
   30. Nolensville (4-0, 4A-4, 15.20%)
   31. Nashville Christian (4-0, II-A West, 14.44%)
   32. Clay Co. (5-0, 1A-4, 13.76%)
   33. Greenfield (5-0, 1A-7, 12.45%)
   34. Fayette Ware (4-0, 4A-8, 11.73%)
   35. Monterey (5-0, 1A-4, 10.53%)
   36. Houston Co. (5-0, 2A-6, 7.95%)
   37. Rhea Co. (4-0, 5A-4, 5.81%)
   38. GPittman (5-0, 3A-2, 5.64%)
   39. Baylor (5-0, II-AAA East, 5.20%)
   40. East Nashville (5-0, 3A-5, 4.98%)
   41. South Gibson (5-0, 3A-7, 4.94%)
   42. CAK (5-0, II-AA East, 4.35%)
   43. McMinn Co. (4-0, 6A-2, 0.55%)
   44. Cherokee (5-0, 5A-1, 0.32%)
   45. Knoxville Halls (5-0, 5A-2, 0.28%)

We’re on track for around 15-16 undefeated teams in the end, though there were around 20 last season. Six of these teams actually play each other this week: South Pittsburg (5-0) at Red Bank (5-0), Cherokee (5-0) at Elizabethton (4-0), and Powell (5-0) at Knoxville Halls (5-0). That’s pretty good!

Week five has arrived! Last week’s projections finished about two wins below expectation, though still pretty good: 131-35 (78.9%), putting these picks at 533-159 (77%) on the season. It’s about four wins below where I’d like to be, but again, we’ve hit the goal of 77% and all four wins would do is get us to 77.6%. It’s a small-enough margin that I’m comfortable with.

As a reminder, you can keep track of season-long win projections via this spreadsheet, which is linked here:

Last week ended up being better than expected! 39 of 166 (23.5%) games ended with an eight-point or lower margin. The Blowout of the Week Award goes to Macon County, who defeated Glencliff by a final score of 70-8. (Serious credit to Glencliff for going for two.) NINE GAMES (!!!) ended with a one-point margin, which is easily the best output I’ve seen to date. (The best of these had to be Beech-Hendersonville, which ended with a Beech TD on the final play.)

This week is expected to be the least-competitive so far. Only 31 of the 167 games are projected within 7.5 points, and an astounding 74 games have the favorite at 90% or better to win. Hopefully, like last week, it’s more competitive than expected, but there seem to be a lot of likely blowouts. Favorites are expected to go 139.5-27.5 (83.5%). Here’s how the Win Percentage Groups are hanging after Week 4:

• 50-59% likely to win the game: 68-51 (57.1%); 9-9 last week
• 60-69%: 87-48 (64.4%); 19-12 last week
• 70-79%: 79-41 (65.8%); 24-11 last week
• 80-89%: 99-12 (89.2%); 21-2 last week
• 90-100%: 199-8 (96.1%); 58-1 last week

No real earth-shattering upsets last week, though Smyrna defeated Riverdale as a 23-point underdog, 27-17.

Now, for this week’s games. As always, TV information for games is listed below. All games, unless otherwise noted, start at 7:30 PM Eastern time for EST teams and 7:00 PM Central for CST teams.

Thursday

• Knoxville Halls 30 at Carter 15 (7:00 PM ET, WVLT-TV)
• Memphis Academy of Health Sciences 21 at Hillcrest 14
• Hamilton 17 at KIPP Collegiate 25
• Raleigh-Egypt 13 at Melrose 27
• Bluff City 7 at Memphis Academy of Science and Engineering 30
• Memphis East 30 at Memphis Business Academy 18
• King Prep 20 at Sheffield 26

Friday

• Peabody 41 at Adamsville 2
• Pigeon Forge 0 at Alcoa 64
• Houston 43 at Arlington 13
• Cordova 35 at Bartlett 12
• Sweetwater 29 at Brainerd 19
• Ravenwood 33 at Brentwood 20
• Father Ryan 3 at Brentwood Academy 38
• Munford 27 at Brighton 26
• Red Boiling Springs 7 at Byrns [Jo] 36
• Silverdale Academy 15 at CAK 34
• Cheatham Co. Central 8 at Camden Central 37
• Antioch 0 at Cane Ridge 52
• Upperman 37 at Cannon Co. 11
• Watertown 45 at Cascade 8
• Seymour 0 at Central 47
• East Hamilton 31 at Chattanooga Central 12
• Boyd-Buchanan 22 at Chattanooga Christian 29
• Volunteer 21 at Cherokee 44 (7:00 PM ET, WCYB-TV)
• Liberty Tech Magnet 23 at Chester Co. 21
• Battle Ground Academy 36 at Christ Presbyterian Academy 17
• Pope John Paul II 25 at Christian Brothers 21
• Henry Co. 34 at Clarksville 19
• Trinity Christian Academy 28 at Clarksville Academy 21
• Gordonsville 16 at Clay Co. 31
• Heritage 7 at Cleveland 50
• White Station 27 at Collierville 19
• Perry Co. 11 at Collinwood 36
• Nashville Christian 29 at Columbia Academy 15
• Eagleville 38 at Community 17
• Oakland 47 at Cookeville 3
• Mount Pleasant 27 at Cornersville 22
• Happy Valley 39 at Cosby 3
• Westview 20 at Covington 38
• Bolton 7 at Crockett Co. 41
• Macon Co. 36 at Cumberland Co. 6
• Oneida 35 at Cumberland Gap 0
• Cocke Co. 8 at David Crockett 50
• Grundy Co. 14 at DeKalb Co. 34
• Centennial 35 at Dickson Co. 16
• Hardin Valley 10 at Dobyns-Bennett 39
• Franklin Road Academy 32 at Donelson Christian Academy 13
• Greenfield 32 at Dresden 19
• Northeast 14 at Dyer Co. 37
• Houston Co. 35 at East Hickman Co. 9
• Grainger 6 at Elizabethton 49
• Baylor 14 at Ensworth 25
• Sycamore 14 at Fairview 35
• Kingsbury 8 at Fayette Ware 36
• St. George’s 31 at First Assembly Christian 21
• Loretto 8 at Forrest 41
• Davidson Academy 28 at Friendship Christian 36
• Humboldt 22 at Fulton Co. (KY) 40
• Hillwood 4 at Gallatin 55
• Olive Branch (MS) 28 at Germantown 16
• Campbell Co. 23 at Gibbs 27
• Union City 22 at Gibson Co. 24
• Stratford 27 at Giles Co. 31
• Hillsboro 54 at Glencliff 0
• Scott 9 at GPittman 34
• Middle Tennessee Christian 21 at Grace Baptist Academy 27
• Notre Dame 31 at Grace Christian 27
• Mount Juliet Christian Academy 43 at Grace Christian Academy 10
• Oliver Springs 23 at Greenback 27
• Austin-East 18 at Greeneville 39
• Cloudland 32 at Hancock Co. 16
• Jackson South Side 10 at Hardin Co. 35
• Sunbright 19 at Harriman 27
• Dyersburg 18 at Haywood 40
• Lebanon 16 at Hendersonville 28 (7:00 PM CT, WUXP-TV)
• Sequoyah 23 at Hixson 32
• Memphis Central 20 at Holmes Co. Central (MS) 26
• Anderson Co. 34 at Howard Tech 19
• Beech 47 at Hunters Lane 0
• Franklin 13 at Independence 36
• University School of Jackson 31 at Jackson Christian 13
• East Robertson 25 at Jackson Co. 20
• Lexington 15 at Jackson North Side 25
• Unaka 19 at Jellico 34
• Fulton 38 at Karns 22
• Northview 8 at Kingston 32
• Southwind 19 at Kirby 33
• Harding Academy 14 at Lausanne Collegiate 45
• Summertown 9 at Lewis Co. 33
• Columbia Central 27 at Lincoln Co. 25
• Goodpasture Christian 10 at Lipscomb Academy 38
• Douglass [Frederick] 25 at Manassas 18
• Marshall Co. 26 at Maplewood 19
• Tyner Academy 35 at Marion Co. 13
• Knox Catholic 10 at McCallie 35
• Huntingdon 55 at McEwen 4
• Halls 14 at McKenzie 36
• Red Bank 44 at McMinn Central 9
• William Blount 15 at McMinn Co. 32
• South Gibson 25 at McNairy Central 24
• Montgomery Bell Academy 9 at Memphis University 31
• Freedom Prep Academy 36 at Middle College 15
• Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 35 at Middleton 21
• Bolivar Central 12 at Milan 39
• Trezevant 18 at Millington Central 27
• Fairley 24 at Mitchell 18
• Pickett Co. 4 at Monterey 47
• Creek Wood 25 at Montgomery Central 19
• Fayetteville 30 at Moore Co. 17
• Farragut 38 at Morristown West 12
• Wilson Central 25 at Mount Juliet 17
• Summit 38 at Nashville Overton 3
• Lawrence Co. 10 at Nolensville 36
• Sale Creek 21 at North Georgia (GA) 29
• Chuckey-Doak 53 at North Greene 1
• Evangelical Christian 42 at Northpoint Christian 0
• Kenwood 19 at Northwest 23
• Knoxville West 28 at Oak Ridge 18
• Coalfield 45 at Oakdale 0
• Bradley Central 31 at Ooltewah 20 (7:30 PM ET, WFLI-TV)
• Tellico Plains 30 at Polk Co. 16
• Clinton 2 at Powell 50
• Pearl-Cohn 68 at RePublic 0
• Lenoir City 9 at Rhea Co. 40
• Lookout Valley 16 at Richland 33
• Memphis Overton 6 at Ridgeway 44
• Obion Co. 18 at Ripley 33
• Rockvale 3 at Riverdale 46
• Hickman Co. 14 at Riverside 27
• Meigs Co. 35 at Rockwood 6
• Station Camp 10 at Rossview 33
• Jefferson Co. 19 at Science Hill 29
• East Ridge 19 at Sequatchie Co. 28
• South-Doyle 41 at Sevier Co. 10
• Coffee Co. Central 16 at Siegel 32
• Loudon 29 at Signal Mountain 16
• McGavock 9 at Smyrna 34
• Huntland 8 at South Pittsburg 39
• Whitehaven 29 at Southaven (MS) 17
• Tullahoma 31 at Spring Hill 10
• Briarcrest Christian 45 at St. Benedict at Auburndale 1
• Harpeth 19 at Stewart Co. 28
• LaVergne 16 at Stewarts Creek 36
• Livingston Academy 41 at Stone Memorial 5
• South Greene 37 at Sullivan North 13
• Sullivan Central 15 at Sullivan South 42
• Morristown East 8 at Tennessee 43
• Fayette Academy 32 at Tipton-Rosemark Academy 17
• Westmoreland 12 at Trousdale Co. 29
• Claiborne 17 at Unicoi Co. 34
• Sullivan East 20 at Union Co. 32
• Blackman 40 at Warren Co. 9
• Midway 22 at Wartburg 31
• Westwood 25 at Washington 19
• Scotts Hill 9 at Waverly Central 43
• King’s Academy 36 at Webb Bell Buckle 18
• Gleason 8 at West Carroll 46
• Portland 32 at West Creek 19
• Johnson Co. 22 at West Greene 26
• Walker Valley 28 at White Co. 24
• Springfield 31 at White House 22
• Greenbrier 11 at White House-Heritage 42
• East Nashville 50 at Whites Creek 0
• Copper Basin 27 at Whitwell 25
• Craigmont 3 at Wooddale 44
• Smith Co. 31 at York Institute 21

167 games this week, 145 of them in Region play. While there aren’t a ton of close games on the schedule, an unexpected Week 5 result can turn the season-long projections upside down. Next Tuesday, I’ll have a post that sort of checks how things are going midway through the season – who’s doing better than expected, who’s worse, and what regions have the most left up in the air. If I’ve missed one, email statsbywill@gmail.com. Here are the five best games, plus a few honorable mentions, from my perspective.

• Baylor (4-0, 1-0) at Ensworth (4-0, 1-0) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). It’s not exactly out of nowhere, but Ensworth has risen from a preseason fourth-place projection in II-AAA East to second, while Baylor has jumped from fifth to fourth. Considering only four teams from the two II-AAA regions make the playoffs, this game in particular has a ton at stake for both teams. Both are 4-0 and 1-0 in region play, but Baylor still has to play McCallie, Brentwood Academy, and Knoxville Catholic. Considering they’ll be underdogs in two of those three games, they really need a win to feel comfortable about their playoff status. Ensworth, meanwhile, is a double-digit favorite and this and the remainder of their first eight games.
• Pope John Paul II (3-1, 0-1) at Christian Brothers (2-2, 0-1) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). A battle of two teams that are slightly better (PJP) or worse (Christian Brothers) than expected. Both lost their first II-AAA West games to better teams, and both really need a win to have playoff status confidence. Christian Brothers endured a tough 13-7 home loss to White Station last week, while PJP pulled off an excellent road win at Father Ryan.
• Ravenwood (4-0, 2-0) at Brentwood (3-1, 1-0) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). The Battle of the Woods promises to be unusually special this year. Ravenwood has navigated a tough opening run with wins at Blackman and at home over Pulaski Academy; Brentwood has overachieved expectations a little bit with a road win over Cane Ridge, though last week’s loss at Henry County dampens expectations a little. The spread of Ravenwood by 13.6 points is the lowest remaining projected margin on their schedule; they have a 62% chance of a 10-0 season.
• South Gibson (4-0, 1-0) at McNairy Central (3-1, 0-1) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT). Now this is not a game you’d expect to see! South Gibson was a projected mid-pack team in 3A-7 before the year, but a surprising 4-0 start with a pair of road wins has correctly changed expectations. McNairy, meanwhile, has mostly been what I expected: a 7-3ish team with a tough 57-49 road loss to a far-better-than-expected Westview. This is a massive swing game for 3A-7, as McNairy currently has just a 0.34-win margin on fifth-place Milan. For second-place South Gibson, this is an absolute must-win if they have hopes of keeping pace with 3A title contender Covington.
• Knoxville West (4-0, 1-0) at Oak Ridge (2-2, 1-0) (Friday, 7:30 PM ET). After a turd of an 0-2 start, Oak Ridge has mostly returned to preseason expectations, smoking Campbell County and pulling off a surprising home win against Farragut. West, meanwhile, is a wrecking crew: they’ve beaten 6A squads Bearden, Farragut, and Jefferson County. If they were in 6A-1, they’d have locked up a playoff spot already with a 3-0 record. If West wins this, they should be able to start 7-0 before the Powell game in Week 8; an Oak Ridge win would completely erase the stench of the first two games and likely allow them to run out to a 4-0 start in 5A-3.
• Honorable Mentions: Columbia Central at Lincoln County (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Marshall County at Maplewood (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); White Station at Collierville (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Olive Branch (MS) at Germantown (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Whitehaven at Southaven (MS) (Friday, 7:00 PM CT); Oliver Springs at Greenback (Friday, 7:30 PM ET).

As a reminder, you can view this week’s schedule in full at this link or below:

Best of luck to all teams involved this week!